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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #2,421
  • Edited 5:52am Aug 17, 2023 5:35am | Edited 5:52am
i am back from my travelling, reading all old posts;-)...

still a very good thread and good hints. waves hint to have only 1 position long/short when having multiple open (risk control) is valueable and interesting to think about. thx all.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,422
  • Edited 7:50am Aug 17, 2023 7:31am | Edited 7:50am
Quoting birdland
i am back from my travelling, reading all old posts;-)... still a very good thread and good hints. waves hint to have only 1 position long/short when having multiple open (risk control) is valueable and interesting to think about. thx all.
Welcome back Bird, been anywhere nice? Yes, I like the concept of balancing the longs and shorts to keep exposure down, Rob seems to have it nailed trading mostly from his phone, without charts, and I'm still exploring ways to automate it as much as possible. I've created some basic EAs, which look promising, but still working on the gapping issue, it's incredible how difficult in can be to automate what seems an easy task, luckily I like a challenge. In the meantime I'm still trading without prediction using my EAs, USDMXN hit TP today, currently I'm long NZDUSD, USDJPY and short GU.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,423
  • Aug 17, 2023 8:19am Aug 17, 2023 8:19am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Welcome back Bird, been anywhere nice? Yes, I like the concept of balancing the longs and shorts to keep exposure down, Rob seems to have it nailed trading mostly from his phone, without charts, and I'm still exploring ways to automate it as much as possible. I've created some basic EAs, which look promising, but still working on the gapping issue, it's incredible how difficult in can be to automate what seems an easy task, luckily I like a challenge. In the meantime I'm still trading without prediction using my EAs, USDMXN hit TP today,...
i was in the mountains, middle europe
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trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,424
  • Aug 17, 2023 8:29am Aug 17, 2023 8:29am
Looks great, we tour on motorcycles at least once a year, always go somewhere similar with nice empty, twisty roads, off to southern Spain in a few weeks.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,425
  • Aug 17, 2023 11:00am Aug 17, 2023 11:00am
Quoting birdland
{quote} i was in the mountains, middle europe {image}
Wow looks lush and tranquil, will have my time in September...
  • #2,426
  • Aug 17, 2023 2:09pm Aug 17, 2023 2:09pm
Ok last of these I'm posting on this thread, I think you all get the gist of it , banked over £3000 and minus around £640 open trades at the moment, so net of £2360, make it your own and post any other findings or tips
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  • #2,427
  • Aug 17, 2023 4:19pm Aug 17, 2023 4:19pm
Definitely has some nice low DD ratios, good work and thanks for sharing. Long EJ now as well, hope my EA knows what he's doing :o)
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,428
  • Aug 17, 2023 10:00pm Aug 17, 2023 10:00pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
Ok last of these I'm posting on this thread, I think you all get the gist of it , banked over £3000 and minus around £640 open trades at the moment, so net of £2360, make it your own and post any other findings or tips {image}
Congrats on pushing the boundaries of hedging science. I totally get it. Playing with it now. BTW, my own experiment was a flop. I did succeed to delay averaging, but still average I did and DD was unacceptable. This TP on time rather than price is refreshing, and does require human factor, which we are happy to provide.
1.02^200
  • #2,429
  • Aug 18, 2023 3:02am Aug 18, 2023 3:02am
Quoting Waveskierrob
... I also do this at work so sometime can be over an hour before I can open/close trades , roughly between 40-60 trades a day more if at home in front of screen, always only have 1 trade that's one sided e.g. 5 LONGS and 4 SHORTS, 20 LONGS and 21 SHORTS, don't get into positions where you say have 4 LONGS and 2 SHORTS if you keep to this it will keep your DD down to a minimum...
first of all, thank you for everything you have shared with us!

I still have a question about the tactic of only having an overhang of 1 position on one side, e.g. 20 LONG versus 21 SHORT.

how do you do that when you average out from one position?

so if i need there you often have 2, 3 or more positions in one direction.

thx
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,430
  • Aug 18, 2023 4:56am Aug 18, 2023 4:56am
Quoting birdland
{quote} first of all, thank you for everything you have shared with us! I still have a question about the tactic of only having an overhang of 1 position on one side, e.g. 20 LONG versus 21 SHORT. how do you do that when you average out from one position? so if i need there you often have 2, 3 or more positions in one direction. thx
away at work at the moment but will answer but will question your question later tonight..
  • #2,431
  • Aug 18, 2023 11:24am Aug 18, 2023 11:24am
a short update.

the next one ill have in one month, then the trading is 6 month old;-)
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trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,432
  • Aug 18, 2023 1:09pm Aug 18, 2023 1:09pm
Quoting birdland
{quote} first of all, thank you for everything you have shared with us! I still have a question about the tactic of only having an overhang of 1 position on one side, e.g. 20 LONG versus 21 SHORT. how do you do that when you average out from one position? so if i need there you often have 2, 3 or more positions in one direction. thx
Yes I did that when closing on a TP but now have found with closing on a time eg 5 mins it just seem better and less of a downdraw, you can still average out your trades with multiple going in one direction, again nothing set in stone, think it would suit the more cautious of us traders...thanks for the question makes me justify it to myself also...
  • #2,433
  • Aug 18, 2023 4:21pm Aug 18, 2023 4:21pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Yes I did that when closing on a TP but now have found with closing on a time eg 5 mins it just seem better and less of a downdraw, you can still average out your trades with multiple going in one direction, again nothing set in stone, think it would suit the more cautious of us traders...thanks for the question makes me justify it to myself also...
This threw me initially as I was closing trades and just ended up with a gap, even so, it was sometimes profitable as per my posted EA. Tell me if I’ve got this wrong but the idea is to keep everything alive, and handle until an overall TP materialises, but only having a net balance of 1 trade either side. I’ve run manual simulations on 5min charts and the small DD is the most appealing factor that I can see, this should allow for larger position sizes.

It may seem I’m suddenly obsessed with EAs but I’m not able (nor want to) look at my phone/PC indefinitely so if I can automate these things, even if it’s not as profitable as trading manually, I’m interested. It also gives me confidence in the concept and provides a heads up on any potential tigers in the grass. I have managed to create an EA based on the above, which looks good, but interestingly introducing a bit more randomness in the trades between gaps looks the best option to avoid a big hedge. I’m running a two day optimisation exercise so will see what comes of that, but if I’ve missed anything/any suggestions, please let me know.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,434
  • Aug 18, 2023 4:59pm Aug 18, 2023 4:59pm
Currently 4 x pairs in DD, can’t end every week in profit
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,435
  • Aug 19, 2023 1:39am Aug 19, 2023 1:39am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} This threw me initially as I was closing trades and just ended up with a gap, even so, it was sometimes profitable as per my posted EA. Tell me if I’ve got this wrong but the idea is to keep everything alive, and handle until an overall TP materialises, but only having a net balance of 1 trade either side. I’ve run manual simulations on 5min charts and the small DD is the most appealing factor that I can see, this should allow for larger position sizes. It may seem I’m suddenly obsessed with EAs but I’m not able (nor want to) look at my...
Yes you keep some trades on indefinitely if you wish or just close them if in overall profit as my previous post I said I made £3000 but still had minus £640 in open trades, could close them but prefer to keep them open as I know some day they may get back in profit but yes will have a downdraw the other way and so it goes on, use all your positions to hedge against each other, if you have 60 trades on and are 1 pip in profit close them all and start again if you wish, definitely with a lower DD you can now afford to up your lot size to what you are comfortable with and star compounding, EAs are great another tool in your tool box, I do personally do like to look at my phone every 5 minutes as a little addicted to trading and my job allows this, thanks for the post ...
  • #2,436
  • Aug 19, 2023 4:04am Aug 19, 2023 4:04am
Quoting LazyTrades
Here's a little EA which opens buy/sells 0.01 lots, it doesn't get over the gap issue as this needs to be done manually, depending on your trading style, Rob has given some ideas around that above. This will wait until the next bar and check for a minimum 2 pip profit then reset, in other words if you are running it on a 5 min chart it will wait 5 mins, check, close if profitable, then reset. Might be useful for testing/simulation purposes.{file}
Hello Lazytrader . i am using this ea that you posted and seems to be working well i designed my self a strategy around it i will post some detail later . My aim is a TP of 4% per day and has achieved it this week I trade it on a ZAR account and would like to increase the lotsize
So i want to ask if you can maybe change the ea to a variable lotsize please
  • #2,437
  • Aug 19, 2023 4:11am Aug 19, 2023 4:11am
Quoting Waveskierrob
I will post live trades as they happen, but will start with some basics and build as time goes on, will write short posts as I know long posts put many off...
Hi Rob thanks for this threat and trading strategy It suits my style will post some data later
Thanks
Gert
  • #2,438
  • Aug 19, 2023 4:13am Aug 19, 2023 4:13am
Quoting pret
{quote} Hello Lazytrader . i am using this ea that you posted and seems to be working well i designed my self a strategy around it i will post some detail later . My aim is a TP of 4% per day and has achieved it this week I trade it on a ZAR account and would like to increase the lotsize So i want to ask if you can maybe change the ea to a variable lotsize please
...is that 4% of your bank a day, if so just a word of caution you maybe over leverage, it's not really for me to say as I don't know how you trade but 0.5% a week for me is a lot, but if you can do it hats off to you, interested in seeing your results...
  • #2,439
  • Aug 19, 2023 4:52am Aug 19, 2023 4:52am
Quoting pret
{quote} Hello Lazytrader . i am using this ea that you posted and seems to be working well i designed my self a strategy around it i will post some detail later . My aim is a TP of 4% per day and has achieved it this week I trade it on a ZAR account and would like to increase the lotsize So i want to ask if you can maybe change the ea to a variable lotsize please
Hello Pret, glad it’s helped, let me know your lot size and I’ll see what I can do. I’d echo Rob’s post though and say 4% a day seems extremely high risk, I’m happy with 0.5 per week = 26% a year, and if I realistically achieve that consistently then compounding kicks in. Not for us to say though, and if you can make those sort of numbers then all good. If your strategy is quite simple I might be able to stress test it at some point and see how it plays out historically.

Also, if you are going to use EAs you really need to have some tools for creating, backtesting and editing them, quite a few online which only take a week or so to get your head around.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,440
  • Aug 19, 2023 5:16am Aug 19, 2023 5:16am
If the aim of this style of trading is to be quite random in entering, then I'm curious if anyone has tried fibs for entering?
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I have no clue where it's going
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