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Pivot Trading

  • #43,761
  • Aug 15, 2023 4:00am Aug 15, 2023 4:00am
Quoting MuniFX
{quote} sold eurnzd, sl at r38
until 3 hours ago this looked good, now we are back at r38
Muni loves you all!
  • #43,762
  • Aug 15, 2023 6:02am Aug 15, 2023 6:02am
Quoting MuniFX
{quote} until 3 hours ago this looked good, now we are back at r38
nzd interest rate announcement tomorrow morning. nzd is very oversold and could then make a strong move.

that's what davit often talked about.
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the highest point comes before the fall
  • #43,763
  • Aug 15, 2023 12:54pm Aug 15, 2023 12:54pm
Greetings guys,
Its been a very long while and I mean decades since I last traded. I have been very occupied with so many other things, you how it goes trying to be stable. And now i think its about time I resume trading fully, but the problem now is that I have lost my confidence and skills, just confused on where to start from, but certainly its got to be Demo for the next couple of months.
I need to master a pattern or strategy that is close to perfect if not perfect. Can anyone point me in the right direction on where and how to start? I would really appreciate a volunteer mentor to see me through this.

Sincerely yours
  • #43,764
  • Aug 15, 2023 1:11pm Aug 15, 2023 1:11pm
Quoting Hartlun
...a pattern or strategy that is close to perfect if not perfect. .
good luck with that..

why not start with the humble approach of putting the odds in your favor..
in 2021 you subscribed to this pivot thread and to "highest open / lowest open" thread
when you study both systems and combine the two .. you can find good probability entries/trades..
Muni loves you all!
  • #43,765
  • Aug 15, 2023 1:55pm Aug 15, 2023 1:55pm
Quoting Pivoter
{quote}that's what davit often talked about. {image} {image}
anyone know where Davit is, last online mid June.
  • #43,766
  • Aug 15, 2023 2:03pm Aug 15, 2023 2:03pm
Quoting duderoo1
{quote} anyone know where Davit is, last online mid June.
maybe he is in japan, arguing with the boj about the ridicolous level the yen is at..
..whereever he is, I hope he is okay and enjoys his life...and maybe oneday he says "hi" again
Muni loves you all!
  • #43,767
  • Aug 17, 2023 9:47am Aug 17, 2023 9:47am
gbpnzd.. D1 what a chart..
yearly r2 sits at 2.163x
quarterly r2 is at 2.171x
we are above monthly r161
this weeks and last weeks weekly pivot untested..
Muni loves you all!
  • #43,768
  • Aug 17, 2023 1:02pm Aug 17, 2023 1:02pm
sold some gbpnzd...lets see if it can post a bearish dailycandle tomorrow...
Muni loves you all!
  • #43,769
  • Edited 3:53am Aug 18, 2023 3:26am | Edited 3:53am
regarding usdcad

to me it looks like a bullish flag is forming on the monthly chart
jun, jul, aug is forming a morning star candle formation (edit: its not technically called a morning star formation, but to me still looks like a reversal pattern)
we are back at the yearly open
a break down below yearly pivot was rejected
yearly r1 is at 1.421x
price right now is 1.354x, so a >650 pips upward move in q4 is likely
if we dont rally immedietly in m9 (september), it likely be an monthly accumulation candle
in between there will be ups and downs, downs and ups, for using the davit pivot strategy to earn some pips, as nothing moves in a straight line

my view can obviously be wrong..
I will adapt accordingly..
Muni loves you all!
  • #43,770
  • Aug 18, 2023 8:20am Aug 18, 2023 8:20am
EU classic pivot trading set up. Missed it.
  • #43,771
  • Aug 18, 2023 9:10am Aug 18, 2023 9:10am
usdcad hit q3 r1, q3 r38
if this is the month top, then 1.337x - the month august MID - has attraction..
higher oil prices would support this..
Muni loves you all!
  • #43,772
  • Aug 18, 2023 10:28am Aug 18, 2023 10:28am
Quoting MuniFX
small chfjpy short at 165.70 , risking the high (sl 165.95)
i wished i would have given that trade more room...
if traders take the profit they gained with the upmove since start of the year, this pair has potential to move down some more..
i am looking for re-entries if next week gives me a price above this fridays close...
Muni loves you all!
  • #43,773
  • Aug 18, 2023 10:32am Aug 18, 2023 10:32am
chfjpy
yearly r2 is at 166.8x
quarterly r1 is at 167.1x
they still can aim for this levels
Muni loves you all!
  • #43,774
  • Aug 18, 2023 11:30am Aug 18, 2023 11:30am
I'm CJ long from pivot. Holding over weekend.
Bought two times from pivot already and profited. Now in 3rd time. Watching 108.00 as a target.
  • #43,775
  • Aug 20, 2023 3:35am Aug 20, 2023 3:35am
Quoting 1pipperhour
I'm CJ long from pivot. Holding over weekend. Bought two times from pivot already and profited. Now in 3rd time. Watching 108.00 as a target.
All the technicals that I can see support a fall or short position. CJ fell nicely from R38/61 down to the weekly pivot last week. I especially like the monthly chart which indicates more to come possibly. Of course, we have another JPY rate decision in Sept so anything can happen. I think it's also interesting to note that the CAD has been weak in almost all other pairs with the exception of AC.
Successful trading is intrinsic to risk management and discipline
  • #43,776
  • Aug 20, 2023 4:31am Aug 20, 2023 4:31am
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We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #43,777
  • Aug 20, 2023 4:02pm Aug 20, 2023 4:02pm
Quoting nittohanns
{quote} All the technicals that I can see support a fall or short position. CJ fell nicely from R38/61 down to the weekly pivot last week. I especially like the monthly chart which indicates more to come possibly. Of course, we have another JPY rate decision in Sept so anything can happen. I think it's also interesting to note that the CAD has been weak in almost all other pairs with the exception of AC.
This pair is strongly affected by UC and UJ as well, won't argue that. Ideal CJ long would be UC going down and UJ up, rarely happens though.

About my decision, I waited it to come down so I could buy it. What I need is, technicals to support fundamentals, this what's pivot trading is all about. So far JPY is weak and oil is rising or it is suppose to rise (and CAD with it). I will not buy JPY before I see clear signs of intervention or money moving into it for some good reason. That's the plan.

I've said it before - all depends how you manage it. You can make money selling it and you can make money buying. Question is, when do you enter and when do you get out. If I'll see, it doesn't work out, I'll just close. Simple is that. At the mean time I'm already in profit with this pair and holding over the weekend earning positive swap as well.
  • #43,778
  • Aug 20, 2023 7:15pm Aug 20, 2023 7:15pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} This pair is strongly affected by UC and UJ as well, won't argue that. Ideal CJ long would be UC going down and UJ up, rarely happens though. About my decision, I waited it to come down so I could buy it. What I need is, technicals to support fundamentals, this what's pivot trading is all about. So far JPY is weak and oil is rising or it is suppose to rise (and CAD with it). I will not buy JPY before I see clear signs of intervention or money moving into it for some good reason. That's the plan. I've said it before - all depends how you...
I've been waiting for the Loonie to strengthen , but , the Greenback has been extremely resilient.
This week should be very interesting.
I will be watching WTI closely.
Here in Canada , every Province got hit with a ridiculously high CARBON TAX. My Province was sooooo fortunate to have a 14 cent/liter added to our gasoline purchases at the pumps !!!! Thus , many people that I know personally , are now planning their short trips for groceries , convenience stores to be kept to a minimum. Hence , I BELIEVE that Canada's CONSUMPTION OF CRUDE is going to DROP SUBSTANTIALLY. Whether participants in the Forex marketplace will share MY OPINION remains to be seen.
The UC is still positioned well above the 200 PERIOD EMA.

Regards ,
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #43,779
  • Aug 20, 2023 7:33pm Aug 20, 2023 7:33pm
Quoting GreenEarth
{quote} I've been waiting for the Loonie to strengthen , but , the Greenback has been extremely resilient. The UC is still positioned well above the 200 PERIOD EMA. Regards , GE
Watching all the USD cross with 200EMA, IF and when they ever get in sync, great for trend traders, need EUR, GBP and CHF to weaken is all, maybe Jackson Hole to strengthen the USD???

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #43,780
  • Aug 21, 2023 2:50am Aug 21, 2023 2:50am
Quoting GreenEarth
{quote} I BELIEVE that Canada's CONSUMPTION OF CRUDE is going to DROP SUBSTANTIALLY.
If you mean gas people put into their cars, I will say this, no, it won't. Man is a slave to his habits . They will get use to it.
We had the price somewhere 1,25-1,30 €/litre last year. When Russian-Ukrainian war started, price started to rise. We even saw 2,25 €/litre. This year it has been quite stable near 1,70 €/litre and now with the rising oil prices it is 1,77 €/litre. Nothing hasn't changed. People drive where ever they need. To vacation and stuff. They get use to it. In the mean time average salary here is somewhere 1200-1500 €/netto. Go figure.
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