Grid-Hedge Reboot #3

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Looking forward to you thread Dave...

Subscribed, I'm on a similar journey though only trading pairs with a positive swap (Oanda), I'm trading live, looking forward to the results.

Thanks guys!

@LazyTrades,
yeah, I would only hedge trade pairs paying me swap, but currently Oanda doesn't have pairs that, when combined, are paying positive swap AND have strong correlated price moves.

Dave

Yep that's the rub, I'm aware I'm effectively long $ most of time although when the correlation falls away things can change with my pairs and UK100. Patience, small trades in relation to balance (and did I mention patience) seems to be working for me so far. I'm running EAs to take care of trades and only intervene if there's a big positive outcome on the table. I'm sure you've looked at Rob's thread, plenty of interesting pointers on there.

Update as of 7:15 PM est, Tuesday August 1, 2023:

Current open trade(s):
AUDUSD 500 units @ 0.66135 (TP = 0.65385 (75 pips), but will be adjusted depending on how much swap is paid to keep the trade open)

Today's closed trades:
None

Pending orders:
AUDUSD 501 units @ 0.65135 (TP @ 0.64385 (75 pips), but may be flexible depending on how much swap was paid to keep the trade open)
AUDUSD 501 units @ 0.67135 (NO TP; if this trade is opened, will immediately open a NZDUSD hedge Buy Trade (501 units @ current price)

Balance = $728.56 USD
Unrealized P/L = $0.16
Net Asset Value = $728.32
%DD = 0.0%
Margin Used = $9.92 (50:1 leverage)
Margin Available = $718.65
%Margin Available = 98.6%
Cumulative swap paid: $0.00

Update as of 8:15 PM est, Wednesday August 2, 2023:

Current open trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-2-23): 501 units @ 0.65359; TP = 0.64608 (75 pips; pip value = $0.05)

Today's closed trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened 8-1-23): 500 units @ 0.66135, TP hit @ 0.65370 (= $3.82)

Pending order(s):
AUDUSD 500 units @ 0.64608 (TP @ 0.63853 (75 pips)
AUDUSD 500 units @ 0.66110 (NO TP; if this trade is opened, will immediately open a NZDUSD hedge Buy Trade (500 units @ current price)

Initial Balance = $728.56 USD
Current Balance = $732.29 USD
Net Asset Value = $732.20 USD
Unrealized P/L = $0.09
%DD = 0.0%
Margin Used = $9.83 (50:1 leverage)
Margin Available = $722.37
%Margin Available = 98.6%
Cumulative swap paid/gained: $0.01

Update as of 10:15 PM est, Thursday August 3, 2023:

Current open trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-2-23): 501 units @ 0.65359; TP = 0.64608 (75 pips; pip value = $0.05)

Today's closed trade(s):
None

Pending order(s):
AUDUSD 500 units @ 0.64608 (TP @ 0.63853 (75 pips)
AUDUSD 500 units @ 0.66110 (NO TP; if this trade is opened, will immediately open a NZDUSD hedge Buy Trade (500 units @ current price)

Initial Balance = $728.56 USD
Current Balance = $732.29 USD
Net Asset Value = $730.48 USD
Unrealized P/L = $1.81
%DD = 0.25%
Margin Used = $9.83 (50:1 leverage)
Margin Available = $720.35
%Margin Available = 98.4%
Cumulative swap paid/gained: $0.01

End-Of-Week

Update as of Friday August 4, 2023:

Current open trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-2-23): 501 units @ 0.65359; TP = 0.64608 (75 pips; pip value = $0.05)

Today's closed trade(s):
None

Pending order(s):
AUDUSD 500 units @ 0.64608 (TP @ 0.63853 (75 pips)
AUDUSD 500 units @ 0.66110 (NO TP; if this trade is opened, will immediately open a NZDUSD hedge Buy Trade (500 units @ current price)

Initial Balance = $728.56 USD
Current Balance = $732.29 USD
Net Asset Value = $730.21 USD
Unrealized P/L = $2.08
%DD = 0.28%
Margin Used = $9.83 (50:1 leverage)
Margin Available = $720.33
%Margin Available = 98.4%
Cumulative swap paid/gained: $0.01

Hello Dave, 0.5% increase so far is pretty good, others my consider this too small to be worthwhile but over the longer term, with compounding, things get interesting. I found the difficulty early on is you may hit a relatively uncooperative set of conditions and the inevitable DD/doubt cycle rears its head but once I'd built up a few successful cycles (and you are trading with profits rather than initial deposit) the fun begins.

Random story: I opened a bin in the office today and a bunch of fruit flies ballooned out, reminded me of trading, I could have looked at the previous form of each of those flies and laid a bet on which one was going to go out of the window first, but it was much easier to wait until each one went into the zapper.

Update as of Monday August 7, 2023:

Current open trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-2-23): 501 units @ 0.65359; TP = 0.64608 (75 pips; pip value = $0.05)

Today's closed trade(s):
None

Pending order(s):
AUDUSD 500 units @ 0.64608 (TP @ 0.63853 (75 pips)
AUDUSD 500 units @ 0.66110 (NO TP; if this trade is opened, will immediately open a NZDUSD hedge Buy Trade (500 units @ current price)

Initial Balance = $728.56 USD
Current Balance = $732.29 USD
Net Asset Value = $730.69 USD
Unrealized P/L = $1.62
%DD = 0.22%
Margin Used = $9.87 (50:1 leverage)
Margin Available = $720.82
%Margin Available = 98.4%
Cumulative swap paid/gained: $0.01

Update as of Tuesday August 8, 2023:
Note: increased units from 500 to 1000 per trade

Current open trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-8-23): 1000 units @ 0.65228; TP = 0.64478 (75 pips; pip value = $0.10)

Today's closed trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-2-23): 501 units @ 0.65359; Closed @ 0.65296 (=$0.32)
Note: This trade was closed right around breakeven so that I could open a single 1000-unit trade (see above)

Pending order(s):
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.64608 (TP @ 0.63853 (75 pips)
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.65980 (NO TP; if this trade is opened, will immediately open a NZDUSD hedge Buy Trade (1001 units @ current price)

Initial Balance = $728.56 USD
Current Balance = $732.61 USD
Net Asset Value = $731.21 USD
Unrealized P/L = $1.40
%DD = 0.19%
Margin Used = $19.61 (50:1 leverage)
Margin Available = $711.16
%Margin Available = 97.3%
Cumulative swap paid/gained: $0.01

Update as of Wednesday August 9, 2023:
Note: increased units from 500 to 1000 per trade

Current open trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-8-23): 1000 units @ 0.65228; TP = 0.64478 (75 pips; pip value = $0.10)

Today's closed trade(s):
None

Pending order(s):
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.64608 (TP @ 0.63853 (75 pips)
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.65980 (NO TP; if this trade is opened, will immediately open a NZDUSD hedge Buy Trade (1001 units @ current price)

Initial Balance = $728.56 USD
Current Balance = $732.62 USD
Net Asset Value = $731.29 USD
Unrealized P/L = $1.33
%DD = 0.19%
Margin Used = $19.61 (50:1 leverage)
Margin Available = $711.68
%Margin Available = 97.24%
Cumulative swap paid/gained: $0.02

Update as of Thursday August 10, 2023:

Current open trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-8-23): 1000 units @ 0.65228; TP = 0.64478 (75 pips; pip value = $0.10)

Today's closed trade(s):
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.65980 (Sell, opened on 8-10-23); closed @ 0.65213 = $7.74
NZDUSD 1000 units @ 0.61068 (Buy, opened on 8-10-23); closed @ 0.60295 = $7.73

An AUDUSD Sell trade was opened @ 0.65980 on the price spike following the US CPI data release. Immediately, a NZDUSD buy hedge trade was opened. Both positions were closed when the AUDUSD dropped back to 0.65213, and the combined P/L of both trades was ~$0 USD.

Pending order(s):
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.64608 (TP @ 0.63853 (75 pips)
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.65980 (NO TP; if this trade is opened, will immediately open a NZDUSD hedge Buy Trade (1001 units @ current price)

Initial Balance = $728.56 USD
Current Balance = $732.63 USD
Net Asset Value = $733.19 USD
Unrealized P/L = $0.55
%DD = 0%
Margin Used = $19.61 (50:1 leverage)
Margin Available = $713.55
%Margin Available = 97.32%
Cumulative swap paid/gained: $0.02

End-of-Week update

Update as of Friday August 11, 2023:

Current open trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-8-23): 1000 units @ 0.65228; TP = 0.64478 (75 pips; pip value = $0.10)

Today's closed trade(s):
None

Pending order(s):
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.64608 (TP @ 0.63853 (75 pips)
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.65980 (NO TP; if this trade is opened, will immediately open a NZDUSD hedge Buy Trade (1001 units @ current price)

Initial Balance = $728.56 USD
Current Balance = $732.63 USD
Net Asset Value = $735.08 USD
Unrealized P/L = $2.45
%DD = 0%
Margin Used = $19.49 (50:1 leverage)
Margin Available = $715.59
%Margin Available = 97.34%
Cumulative swap paid/gained: $0.02

Update as of Monday August 14, 2023:

Current open trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-8-23): 1000 units @ 0.65228; TP = 0.64478 (75 pips; pip value = $0.10)

Today's closed trade(s):
None

Pending order(s):
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.64608 (TP @ 0.63853 (75 pips)
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.65980 (NO TP; if this trade is opened, will immediately open a NZDUSD hedge Buy Trade (1001 units @ current price)

Initial Balance = $728.56 USD
Current Balance = $732.63 USD
Net Asset Value = $735.08 USD
Unrealized P/L = $3.26
%DD = 0%
Margin Used = $19.47 (50:1 leverage)
Margin Available = $716.43
%Margin Available = 97.34%
Cumulative swap paid/gained: $0.02

Update as of Tuesday August 15, 2023:

Current open trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-15-23): 1000 units @ 0.65228; TP = 0.64478 (75 pips; pip value = $0.10)

Today's closed trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-8-23): 1000 units @ 0.65228; TP hit @ 0.64478 (75 pips; pip value = $0.10)

Pending order(s):
AUDUSD 1000 units @ 0.63720 (TP @ 0.62970 (75 pips)
AUDUSD 1000 units @ 0.65238 (NO TP; if this trade is opened, will immediately open a NZDUSD hedge Buy Trade (1000 units @ current price)

Initial Balance = $728.56 USD
Current Balance = $740.13 USD
Net Asset Value = $740.48 USD
Unrealized P/L = $0.49
%DD = 0%
Margin Used = $19.35 (50:1 leverage)
Margin Available = $721.13
%Margin Available = 97.39%
Cumulative swap paid/gained: $0.02

Please note that the open trade for the update dated Tuesday, August 15th is incorrect. The AUDUSD sell trade (1001 units) was opened @ 0.64473 with a TP @ 0.63723 (75 pips @ $0.01/pip).

Update as of Wednesday August 16, 2023 (10:00 pm):

Current open trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-16-23): 1000 units @ 0.63717; TP = 0.62970 (75 pips; pip value = $0.10)

Today's closed trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-15-23): 1001 units @ 0.64473; TP hit @ 0.63725 (+$7.49)

Pending order(s):
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.62970 (TP @ 0.62220 (75 pips))
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.64488 (NO TP; if this trade is opened, will immediately open a NZDUSD hedge Buy Trade (1001 units @ current price)

Initial Balance = $728.56 USD
Current Balance = $747.63 USD
Net Asset Value = $746.58 USD
Realized P/L: $19.07
Unrealized P/L = -$1.05
%DD = -0.14%
Margin Used = $19.14 (50:1 leverage)
Margin Available = $727.44
%Margin Available = 97.43%
Cumulative swap paid/gained: $0.03

Update as of Thursday August 17, 2023 (8:12 pm):

Current open trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-16-23): 1000 units @ 0.63717; TP = 0.62970 (75 pips; pip value = $0.10)

Today's closed trade(s):
AUDUSD (SELL, opened on 8-17-23 @ 8:37 am) 1001 units @ 0.64488; closed @ 0.64131 (+$3.57)
NZDUSD (Buy Hedge trade, opened on 8-17-23 @ 8:39 am) 1000 units @ 0.59577; closed @ 0.59303 (-$2.74)

Pending order(s):
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.62970 (TP @ 0.62220 (75 pips))
AUDUSD 1001 units @ 0.64467 (NO TP; if this trade is opened, will immediately open a NZDUSD hedge Buy Trade (1001 units @ current price)

Initial Balance = $728.56 USD
Current Balance = $748.46 USD
Net Asset Value = $744.66 USD
Realized P/L: $19.90
Unrealized P/L = -$3.80
%DD = -0.51%
Margin Used = $19.23 (50:1 leverage)
Margin Available = $725.44
%Margin Available = 97.42%
Cumulative swap paid/gained: $0.03

Hi davelansing,

Very intersting topic and I read it word by word.

I have further question regarding your answer in Q&A (in the second post https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...d-hedge-reboot? ), when you close 2 recent opened EURAUD hedge positons out of 3, you will keep monitoring net P/L of EURAUD postion 1 and EURCAD postion 0.

Quote ["At this point I am more focused on monitoring the EURAUD hedge. As the EURAUD moves back up, I will closely watch the net P/L of the second and third EURAUD positions. Once their net P/L approaches $0, those positions are closed. At this point my focus now shifts to the net P/L of EURCAD position 0 and the remaining EURAUD hedge position"]

When No.2 and No.3 EURAUD hedge positons are closed, the price of EURAUD will have +150 pips offset to the first EURAUD hedge postion, You have 2 long postions (EC) and 1 short postion (EA) in total. Will you place two sell pending orders at +50 pips and -50 pips at that time? What would you do if the market go down again?

One more question. Besides high currency correlation, can we consider to use ADR * pipValue (Daily range in currency) of two pairs and their ratio to calculate to different lot size for each pair in trading. Is it give us more chance to get net P/L=0 ?

Best,