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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #4,781
  • May 29, 2007 2:23pm May 29, 2007 2:23pm
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  • #4,782
  • May 29, 2007 3:17pm May 29, 2007 3:17pm
My trade on the Swissy using Phillip's price movement rules. I did use the MACD ZB confirmation signal to go short with R:R of about 1.

Phillip - it worked out. Unfortunately I did the trade on my laptop and I couldn't follow it during the day. Would have exit on 365MA for 70pips. My exit was on the second last candle coming back up through the 89MA again.
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #4,783
  • May 29, 2007 3:32pm May 29, 2007 3:32pm
If any of you are like me (newbie, learning how to trade), then perhaps you hear Phillip talk about the 'rules' and what the price usually does around the MA's, etc., and you get confused, because it seems like there's so much to it!

However, recently I've begun to understand a little better (hopefully!). Maybe Phillip and others can verify this for me, but it seems like this rule applies: ** In normal market situations, when price breaks through a S/R line, a MA line which acts as S/R, or a channel line, it usually comes back to test the line before continuing its path. ** Does this sufficiently sum up price movement?

Also, taking a look at Phil's last post and audio, it should become very clear to those of us who are new that we MUST be patient!! That was about 3 weeks worth of trading, and only 10 trades. That means that there will be less than 1 trade every day, more like 1 every 2 days. So we can't sit and watch and see the chart as WE want to see it--we have to let it show us and we have to take it for what it is, and realize that MOST of our waking moments in front of the computer will be spend analyzing, not actually trading!
  • #4,784
  • May 29, 2007 4:19pm May 29, 2007 4:19pm
Josh,

There are a couple of quotes from the book Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas that I always keep handy for when things get confusing or overwhelming for me.

"Instead of controlling our surroundings so they conform to our idea of the way things should be, we can learn to control ourselves. Then we can perceive information from the most objective perspcitve possible, and structure our mental environment so that we always behave in a manner that is in our own best interest"

and

"Traders in the "zone" don't need to know - and don't care - what the market is going to do next. They know what they are going to do next. And that makes all the difference."

There is a lot of information out there regarding the psychology of trading, which is very very important. It may be worthwhile for you to do some research on it as it can ground you emotionally. Taking the emotion out of money is very difficult, but it's the one thing that traders need to do before they pull the trigger....which is not an easy thing for me to do but I'm learning.

Cheers and happy trading
Nancy
  • #4,785
  • May 29, 2007 4:44pm May 29, 2007 4:44pm
Quoting JoshDance
If any of you are like me (newbie, learning how to trade), then perhaps you hear Phillip talk about the 'rules' and what the price usually does around the MA's, etc., and you get confused, because it seems like there's so much to it!

However, recently I've begun to understand a little better (hopefully!). Maybe Phillip and others can verify this for me, but it seems like this rule applies: ** In normal market situations, when price breaks through a S/R line, a MA line which acts as S/R, or a channel line, it usually comes back to test the line before continuing its path. ** Does this sufficiently sum up price movement?

Also, taking a look at Phil's last post and audio, it should become very clear to those of us who are new that we MUST be patient!! That was about 3 weeks worth of trading, and only 10 trades. That means that there will be less than 1 trade every day, more like 1 every 2 days. So we can't sit and watch and see the chart as WE want to see it--we have to let it show us and we have to take it for what it is, and realize that MOST of our waking moments in front of the computer will be spend analyzing, not actually trading!

Basically this is the one of the rules... You used well "usually". Also the second part of your post is true. Good luck to us all!
A good trade is when I Break Even. A great trade is when I Take Profit.
  • #4,786
  • May 29, 2007 5:58pm May 29, 2007 5:58pm
Golfer:

This is just an observation:

Looking at your Swissie chart around May 23 or so, the MACD looks really flat, barely above/below the zero line and price action looks stuck. Not stuck in a channel, just stuck. I avoid those areas of congestion and wait for the market to get moving and have some flow. I'm not worried about timing the perfect Rt or Rb. If the trend develops from that area without a Rt Rb MACD signal, I'll wait for a Tc an re-enter the prevailing trend.

Just a word or two that's all...peace
  • #4,787
  • May 30, 2007 4:07am May 30, 2007 4:07am
Quoting Palmer
Golfer:

This is just an observation:

Looking at your Swissie chart around May 23 or so, the MACD looks really flat, barely above/below the zero line and price action looks stuck. Not stuck in a channel, just stuck. I avoid those areas of congestion and wait for the market to get moving and have some flow. I'm not worried about timing the perfect Rt or Rb. If the trend develops from that area without a Rt Rb MACD signal, I'll wait for a Tc an re-enter the prevailing trend.

Just a word or two that's all...peace
Hi Palmer

Tx for your inputs. Yes, I am with you. After a few candles (after my enter) I was worried about the trades but as this was a demo run and I wanted to get a feel for the price movement, I let it run.

If it was a live account - something else.

I do agree with you.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #4,788
  • May 30, 2007 10:25am May 30, 2007 10:25am
Hi Guys,

I will stop trading for awhile, I need to recover a big Lost I had last week.
I lost 4lots, when pound recover to 1.9900.
I short it at 1.9837 and my SL at 200 was hit.
I am really a bad trader, why did I not wait the price to touch 200 and trendline?
It was a big lost, and this one affected me a lot.

I will follow the Thread, but not daily!

BYE guys

P.S.- THAT'S WHY I AM A LOOSER!!
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  • #4,789
  • May 30, 2007 10:33am May 30, 2007 10:33am
Quoting BoredToLoose
Hi Guys,

I will stop trading for awhile, I need to recover a big Lost I had last week.
I lost 4lots, when pound recover to 1.9900.
I short it at 1.9837 and my SL at 200 was hit.
I am really a bad trader, why did I not wait the price to touch 200 and trendline?
It was a big lost, and this one affected me a lot.

I will follow the Thread, but not daily!

BYE guys

P.S.- THAT'S WHY I AM A LOOSER!!

Hi,

It is very bad to hear that. I had a lost trade too on long U/CAD last week. I had 3 lots. I manually closed the order at 1.0780 when my stop was 1.0690. If I had not closed it and let it stopped out this morning, my account would have be swipped out!!!.

Do not give up. Take the lesson. we will grow up.

James
  • #4,790
  • May 30, 2007 11:06am May 30, 2007 11:06am
Quoting BoredToLoose
It was a big lost, and this one affected me a lot.
How big was you SL and account? Did you risk more than 2%?

If you go by this rule, if your account is, say, $5000, you should risk no more than $100 on any single trade. This means you should be trading micro lots, or at the very most mini lots. Assuming 1 lot is 10,000 (mini lots), the value of 1 pip = $1USD, so your S/L could not have been more than 100 trading 1 mini lot. If your S/L was 50, you could trade 2 mini lots. And so on. Never risk more than 2% on a trade, at the most!! 1% is better!!

Quoting BoredToLoose
P.S.- THAT'S WHY I AM A LOOSER!!
If you keep thinking this way, you'll never succeed in much of anything. Attitude is key. Thoughts become things.
  • #4,791
  • May 30, 2007 11:26am May 30, 2007 11:26am
We were offered the oppertunity to have our own sub forum where we can have some threads under it. Do you people think we must do it. It is up to you to decide and give some suggestions as to what and how we are going to run it if we decide to do so. The name issue etc.
Thanks
Phillip
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  • #4,792
  • May 30, 2007 11:32am May 30, 2007 11:32am
Quoting Phillip Nel
We were offered the oppertunity to have our own sub forum where we can have some threads under it. Do you people think we must do it. It is up to you to decide and give some suggestions as to what and how we are going to run it if we decide to do so. The name issue etc.
Thanks
Phillip
That's fantastic!!!!!

I'm having difficulty w/my internet connection....and not sure if this will print...

so...yes...we should do it! I will offer some thoughts if this posts....

also, a question....how does the sub forum work as far as your "workload" Phillip?

Your faithful groupie

pips
  • #4,793
  • May 30, 2007 11:39am May 30, 2007 11:39am
It Looks Pretty Good!!! So What Do You Think About The Euro How Far Is It Going To Go Down? Will It Go Back Up To The 1.3680 By The End Of This Week?
  • #4,794
  • May 30, 2007 11:42am May 30, 2007 11:42am
I follow this current format of the thread just fine and I am happy with the format.

Can someone explain the advantages and disadvantages of a sub-forum?
My only concern with a change from the current thread is that the new format may cause disconnection.
  • #4,795
  • May 30, 2007 11:45am May 30, 2007 11:45am
I'm not sure how a subsection works really....nor the amount of work involved for the initiator....

with that said....if you decide to do it, Phillip....here are my thoughts:

1)A locked section for your strategy rules
2)A section for general strategy discussion and trade sharing
pertaining to rhythm, price action and MACD

3)A locked section for your market wrap-ups (only your posts)
4)Maybe a frequently asked Q & A section....since many of the same questions are asked repeatedly.....they could be in one place for people to refer to?
5) A Misc. section for everything else...money management, psycchology, high fives....

these are just some ideas for sections....Again, I don't know how the multiple threads work or how it is managed by you (or time required to manage)....

Other ideas fellow traders?

Happy trading all!

Pips
  • #4,796
  • May 30, 2007 11:46am May 30, 2007 11:46am
Quoting JoshDance
How big was you SL and account? Did you risk more than 2%?

If you go by this rule, if your account is, say, $5000, you should risk no more than $100 on any single trade. This means you should be trading micro lots, or at the very most mini lots. Assuming 1 lot is 10,000 (mini lots), the value of 1 pip = $1USD, so your S/L could not have been more than 100 trading 1 mini lot. If your S/L was 50, you could trade 2 mini lots. And so on. Never risk more than 2% on a trade, at the most!! 1% is better!!



If you keep thinking this way, you'll never succeed in much of anything. Attitude is key. Thoughts become things.
Hi Josh and James,

When I say 4 lots it is $40USD per pip.
I have lost in that trade the same amount I have won in 10 days.
I really need to learn to be more patient, I will start to trade again, but I need some weeks to recover.

I will trade only H4 EURUSD and only by Phillip Study.
I will read all again, and again, and stop once for all to trade not according his study.
If I can't learn to be patient maybe quit it is the right thing to do.


Bye
MIKE
  • #4,797
  • May 30, 2007 11:54am May 30, 2007 11:54am
Quoting BoredToLoose
Hi Josh and James,

When I say 4 lots it is $40USD per pip.
I have lost in that trade the same amount I have won in 10 days.
I really need to learn to be more patient, I will start to trade again, but I need some weeks to recover.

I will trade only H4 EURUSD and only by Phillip Study.
I will read all again, and again, and stop once for all to trade not according his study.
If I can't learn to be patient maybe quit it is the right thing to do.


Bye
MIKE
Hi Mike,

I sent you a PM.....hope it went through (the first two got broken up by my connection...hope you didn't get three messages from me...EEEk!! )

Glad your not giving up....patience is the Key......and lastly.....taking a break to re-group is a good idea. Get your head back together! (I'm throwing darts at the donkey now....stupid donkey!...donkey = market)....hope you smiled....see you when you have renewed yourself and are ready to start trading again.

Pips
  • #4,798
  • May 30, 2007 11:57am May 30, 2007 11:57am
Hello Dear Phillip and all. I think to have a sub-forum would be very great for our community.

We can have sub-sections dedicated to all the majors pairs that we trade with the insight of traders of differents pairs. As an exemple, Euro thread, Pound thread, Swissy thread, Yen thread were people can post their ideas and charts for the current day.

Also, maybe a thread for asking particular questions to the method.

Another one for regrouping the most important posts of this great 4H forum.

I think if we help each other out to create these threads on the sub-furum and put things in it, it would definitely just improve our communication and profit through this method.

However, everybody willing will need to give a great help to Phillip as it is time consuming.

So, Dear Phillip I am all for it.

Sincerly

Shreem
  • #4,799
  • May 30, 2007 12:15pm May 30, 2007 12:15pm
Phil mentions 5%, 3%, on his audio. Phil is an experienced trader with his system that he created, and he may be able to make these risks, but for a new trader IMHO 2% should be tops!! Even great traders can lose 5 trades in a row. What about new traders? We (as I am a new traders) will lose sometimes 8 out of 10 trades! Even at 2% risk, you've lost about 15% of your account!! At 5%, 8 losing trades will nearly cut your account in half!! That's too much drawndown for a new trader to take!!

Example on risk:

S/L is 30 pips
2% of account is $100
Trading mini lots, so 1 pip = $1
My position size will be 3.3 mini lots (or 0.33 standard lots). Why? Because if I lose on the trade, I've lost $100, and no more. So each pip will = $3.33.

Now, same scenario--except my S/L is 50 pips. Now, I will only trade 2 mini lots, because again, that puts my max risk at $100.

If I have a SUPER great trade and can lower my S/L to 20 pips, then my position will be 5 mini lots.

If my R/R is good, then I will stand to make at least as much as I risk.

What happens is that we risk a lot on a trade, and lose. Then we're afraid, so we risk not as much on the next trade, and win. But we don't make as much as we should, because we didn't risk as much. So we risk more on the next trade with our renewed confidence, and lose on this one, so we're even deeper into the hole. If we have a fixed risk on every trade, we eliminate this problem, and all we need are some winning trades, and the consistency of our money management takes over and puts us in the black. All of this stuff I'm talking about I learned in the James16 private forum, so there's some great stuff over there.
  • #4,800
  • May 30, 2007 12:16pm May 30, 2007 12:16pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
Hi Guys,

I will stop trading for awhile, I need to recover a big Lost I had last week.
I lost 4lots, when pound recover to 1.9900.
I short it at 1.9837 and my SL at 200 was hit.
I am really a bad trader, why did I not wait the price to touch 200 and trendline?
It was a big lost, and this one affected me a lot.

I will follow the Thread, but not daily!

BYE guys

P.S.- THAT'S WHY I AM A LOOSER!!
BTL,
This is going to be a little harsh but it is exactly what you need if you want to be a successful trader; it is ALL UP TO YOU. HOW BAD DO YOU WANT IT?

After reading your post I became very angry for you. If there is anything that it is an absolute must for success in trading (OR in life in general ) it is to have a positive attitude. I know you have heard that before. But how does one achieve a "positive attitude"? A little success doesn't hurt. That success is outlined in a gorgeous system hand fed to you by Phillip. FOLLOW IT! Every word. But there are hundreds of systems. The difference between success & failure is very simple. Follow the system! Phillip has already proven to us all that it works and he did all the hardwork for us.

But more than the system itself it is YOU. YOU are the secret to your own success. And the secret is all about positive thoughts, actions, words (written or verbalized) and body language. BTW, lose the screen name and come up with a positive one.
There is a great DVD entitled "THE SECRET", as many of you probably already know. It talks exactly about what you need and will change you forever. In fact I would suggest it to all traders as part of there "trading psychology" library(which is probably the most important but least covered).
The entire concept of the SECRET has been around for centuries and in fact I have read about it in numerous trading books by successful traders but the name it is given is different. The basic idea is the"Law of positive attraction". Positive attracts positive & negative attracts negative. Take a look at your own circle of friends and then examine the common traits of both the ones who are successful and the ones who are not. I can tell you right now it is this difference of being positive or negative.
Have you ever noticed the people who use the phrases "just my luck" or "I could never do that" or "Why does it always happen to me?" Those are just a few examples but I think you get the idea. You are what you think you are....AND YOU ARE A WINNER!
Now, the first thing you are going to do is get the DVD "The Secret", watch it, then watch it again, and again..... I try to watch it at least once a week for inspiration and it clears your mind and you are ready to trade again.

Good Luck and YOU WILL SUCCEED !
70% expectancy rate with proper SL placement.
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