if you're in this nzdjpy trade, does it mean the stops below 87.50 are safe for now? leave my audjpy alone too, btw
:
Here's two trades that failed on me this week... I ended up breaking even for the week because of them and yes, this happens A LOT.
3rd bar from right -- BEOB with no support in sight. What you would be thinking at this point is that USDCAD is going to continue down.
2nd bar from right -- Pinbar. Wouldn't you know it... so now you're thinking..."I'm getting a bullish signal.. price is telling me that CAD will start to turn up for a small win and I can get in on this... so I better get out of my BEOB." So I closed my BEOB for a loss and reversed.
1st bar -- BEOB. I am now stopped out of the PB for two losses in a row. Will the BEOB carry through? The probability is that it will since the PB failed and there was a BEOB before that but at this point, who knows.
Anyway, just wanted to show everyone that PA is not necessarily the magic way to trade as so many people try to make it out to be. It takes a lot of practice. And there are a lot of these kinds of formations that happen... I don't think Jim tells you that enough.
let me clear something up.
TAKING EVERY TRADE YOU SEE BECAUSE ITS A BAR WE DISCUSS IS INSANE.
Heya Mr Trend.
Okay, first of all, everything of the following is not meant to be offensive or as any kind of insult, I am merely going to state my own singular personal opinion.
First off:
James states over and over and OVER again, that it's not the bars alone, but the WHERE of the bars/formations that makes things matter. He said something like "Try trading these on demo alone. Add some s/r and confluence to these and they will really blow you away" or words to that effect just a couple of dozen posts back if memory serves. And there are numerous occassions where people will outline the areas of confluence when posting a setup(I know I try to).
Any PA veteran will most likely sign the fact that the WHERE of the bars/patterns matters most(If not, insert outcry here and flame me to death in the following posts please. No seriously, I am being a bit preposterous here so you may as well *wink*).
What good is a bullish pin bar if it's at the top of a swing up?
Nothing, since in that case I've personally found those doji like things are really a sign of exhaustion and signal a turn DOWN. Pin bar reversals come after a steep fall or rise, not in traffic.
The same goes for the BEOB/BUOB and DBLHC/DHLC. Yes, I know a lot of folks post these "in the middle" and think they are confirmation signals that things will continue etc pp. And heck, sometimes that works.
But you know what? You will get a truckload of 4h bars that are BUOB, then get a PB, and then things fall like crazy. Look no further than Kiwi in this week or various other examples for this. So who was right? The BUOB said up, the PB down. In this case - PB beats all, right? But then again I can find you PBs that get overruled as well.
My point is - all this stuff works. But if you take Pin Bars that have 10 pip noses on a pair that has an ATR of 100+, don't be surprised if it doesn't work(exaggeration). If the nose doesn't protrude, if the PB is in traffic, if there isn't a run up/down, if there is ZERO support or resistance or ANYTHING of the kind, don't be surprised if it doesn't work.
(somebody has to actually step in and buy/sell the darn thing, after all)
If you get a BEOB at the very end of a swing down and the close is near to or at the very low, to me a lot of time this CAN mean things have exhausted themselves pushing down, the bar will close, and the very next can CAN very likely go from a retrace into a full fledged rise.
Why? Heck, I don't know, I've just seen it happen tons of times.
Is the BEOB useless then? No, if you get it at a HIGH you can use it beautifully. No idea why I'd want to sell the lowest point on a chart, even if it's a BEOB. Just doesn't feel right.
One golden rule has always been: Don't enter in the middle.
So why enter a short at a low?
Just seems risky as heck to me. Confirmation:yes. Entry: no.
Now, the engulfing stuff. I know what the definition says, but I can tell you from my point of view that simply spiking above and below the prior bar does not make you a proper engulfing bar.
The body of the candle/bar (open to close) is what has the most weight IN MY OPINION(this is why some folks draw solely line based charting) and I think I've seen FXV and other folks (possibly Habeeb? Sorry both of you if I'm completely wrong here) also emphasize that the "really good" beob/buob are those that engulf the prior body with their open and close, not low and high. At least my tired mind (1am here) tells me I read this in a lot of their posts.
Now, as for trade management - you could just move the stop and let the market decide whether it's a pin when one shows instead of manually flipping. An often heard quote (or maybe it's just what I have to constantly tell myself, because I do have to a lot) is: don't try to outsmart the market, let it tell you what it's doing on its own. I've done my share of flipping positions instead of letting my stop tell me which outcome would occur and guess what, I messed up things more than simply leaving my hands off.
Straying off a bit: Considering this was USDCAD we were talking about and we're pretty much below 30 year lows or something with no s/r left on my charts, it's rather a shot in the dark trying to stem a 1000 pip drop off a small daily PB.
As you said - weekly here to me would be the minimum I want to see for this thing to even start to tell me it's over.
Think scales, think weight tipped to one side...
Also remember the steepness -> pin bar part, PB being a rash decline and a rash retreat of suitable proportion that shows a STRONG rejection of an area.
The gist is - the really hard part of PA is learning to properly apply it and knowing how the where and the when matter. There's a reason Jim bangs on and on about 3 months on demo, starting on a high TF and only after mastering it stepping down one.
It's not child's play, nor should it be made to look like it, but it CAN be easy and applied easily if you learn it well, have truckloads of patience and learn the simple lesson that one good trade a week can make more money than 5 hopes-and-wishes trades.
That's another one learnt from my own malpractice, errrrr, trading
God, I hope I don't get a "post too long" error...
Take care y'all, and like I said Mr Trend, no offense
SeekingLight
Seekinglight,
Your posts are enlightening as always. I really enjoyed this one. Keep posting buddy!
Anyone sizing up the Swissie weekly pin?
)
I found out after a few years under my belt, that all of the people who think they know that it's going to stop at an all-time low are the ones who get killed. Weeks ago, the DOW made new highs... had you shorted it then, you would've still been getting killed to this day.
I always love how people say, "Oh, heck no, it can't go down any further...", then they get destroyed.
Hi James,
I have been reading your thread. Great stuff.
Just wanted to confirm if this would qualify for a Pin Bar.
EUR/USD H4 2007-05-25 12:00 GMT. (2007-05-25 8:00PM EST)
Khan
Hi Khan!
I think you meant AUDUSD
I'm not James, but if I may throw my chip in: it's a very nice PB(long nose:check, pretty much level open/close: check, small body: check) BUT it is right in the mdidle of other bars and near the lows of the last 3 weeks.
So the positioning isn't so hot.
Preferably you'd want this one to appear after it's made a bit more room for itself (i.e. good pin bars prefer to live without too many neighbors, ya?), i.e. retraced or pulled back first. Yeeeees, I know, I just posted the very thing a second ago, see how fast things come back to apply!
Just my personal opinion =)
But good job in picking a good looking one(so many other posted PBs need to visit the Rhinoplasty bad!), keep it up
Take care,
SeekingLight
