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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #261
  • May 26, 2007 6:51pm May 26, 2007 6:51pm
Quoting pujolshomerun
I am long since it was 1.1750.

I have 4000 dollars in my account and my unrealized profit is like negative 2000 dollars now.

I really hope it reverse. I can't even eat or sleep everyday.

Ouch dude. I feel the pain for your. Just remember to use stop loss next time.

hm... don't know if this makes you happier but you are earning positive interests.
  • #262
  • May 26, 2007 6:54pm May 26, 2007 6:54pm

place a stop at price when triggered, will reasonably suggest that you are wrong.

  • #263
  • May 26, 2007 10:34pm May 26, 2007 10:34pm
You are heading for a margin call !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Would have been easier just to send me the $ 2000 !! I take paypal !!!
  • #264
  • May 27, 2007 11:08am May 27, 2007 11:08am
Quoting pujolshomerun
I am long since it was 1.1750.

I have 4000 dollars in my account and my unrealized profit is like negative 2000 dollars now.

I really hope it reverse. I can't even eat or sleep everyday.
Perfect example of someone trading without a Trade Plan.
  • #265
  • May 27, 2007 11:11am May 27, 2007 11:11am
Wow, this has been a spirted thread. ok, my new 2 cents worth.

The downtrend from a technical perspective is obviously still in place and I would have to agree with WTB, keep milking it till the end which will produce a loss on the last trade.

From a fundamental perspective, Canada has everything going for it, especially commodities that are not only being gobbled up by the US, but also by Asian countries and especially China. A trend thats hard to imagine how it could possibly end. Also, without going into detail, the US (my opinion) is in a mess.

There are a couple of things to ponder and they would only bring a correction. One big one is COT (commitment of traders) data which suggest that a reversal in the US dollar is imminent. Does not mean permanent just a reversal, most likely a just a correction that could possibly last several months. Latest data on COT (friday 05-25) also shows the sentiment changing from a CAD long to short position. The Canadian buck has gained 8% this year against the US buck but also has gained against most other currencies as well. This does not bode well for Canadian manufacturing and I've read the anything over 90 cents is very damaging to their economy, it's now at 92 cents. A higher buck obviously make exporters harder to compete.

The other data bite that's something to consider and this has to do with Elliot Wave theory, is that we are now in the fifth wave down of a large 3rd wave. If that is correct and most Ellioticians believe it is, it simply means we will have a corrective wave up and then we'll be heading south again. This theory suggest a correction to about 1.1160 to 1.1200, and then head south again. From a simple perspective, nothing moves in a straight line and we've clearly had a straight line (impulsive move) down from the 1.1800 area.

A few other things to consider, the China stock market is like an over ripe pimple ready to pop. The US stock market is considered due to be ripe for a "real" correction unlike the skittish move we had in February. The yen is at historic lows. Tensions rising in the middle east. It feels like a perfect storm brewing to me. When it starts to roll, lots of money to change hands for sure.

To sum it all up, "the trend is your friend until it bends"

Good luck; WillyT
  • #266
  • May 28, 2007 3:21am May 28, 2007 3:21am
Quoting WillyT
Wow, this has been a spirted thread. ok, my new 2 cents worth.

The downtrend from a technical perspective is obviously still in place and I would have to agree with WTB, keep milking it till the end which will produce a loss on the last trade.

From a fundamental perspective, Canada has everything going for it, especially commodities that are not only being gobbled up by the US, but also by Asian countries and especially China. A trend thats hard to imagine how it could possibly end. Also, without going into detail, the US (my opinion) is in a mess.

There are a couple of things to ponder and they would only bring a correction. One big one is COT (commitment of traders) data which suggest that a reversal in the US dollar is imminent. Does not mean permanent just a reversal, most likely a just a correction that could possibly last several months. Latest data on COT (friday 05-25) also shows the sentiment changing from a CAD long to short position. The Canadian buck has gained 8% this year against the US buck but also has gained against most other currencies as well. This does not bode well for Canadian manufacturing and I've read the anything over 90 cents is very damaging to their economy, it's now at 92 cents. A higher buck obviously make exporters harder to compete.

The other data bite that's something to consider and this has to do with Elliot Wave theory, is that we are now in the fifth wave down of a large 3rd wave. If that is correct and most Ellioticians believe it is, it simply means we will have a corrective wave up and then we'll be heading south again. This theory suggest a correction to about 1.1160 to 1.1200, and then head south again. From a simple perspective, nothing moves in a straight line and we've clearly had a straight line (impulsive move) down from the 1.1800 area.

A few other things to consider, the China stock market is like an over ripe pimple ready to pop. The US stock market is considered due to be ripe for a "real" correction unlike the skittish move we had in February. The yen is at historic lows. Tensions rising in the middle east. It feels like a perfect storm brewing to me. When it starts to roll, lots of money to change hands for sure.

To sum it all up, "the trend is your friend until it bends"

Good luck; WillyT
The most logical answer i've read in this thread .

Thank u
  • #267
  • May 28, 2007 6:30am May 28, 2007 6:30am
  •  vrama
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: BE at right place@right time = LUCK | 210 Posts
Quoting pujolshomerun
I am long since it was 1.1750.

I have 4000 dollars in my account and my unrealized profit is like negative 2000 dollars now.

I really hope it reverse. I can't even eat or sleep everyday.
Last year I used to place trades like this, without stop loss and thinking of it will come back. But it blown away my account couple of times. Then I learned, with out stop loss I never placed trade. And always I calculate the stoploss and instead counting profits I always count my lossess, then mentally prepared for loss.
Better to take some loss, instead loosing all.
Sorry for your, negative profit.
All things are difficult before they are easy.
  • #268
  • May 28, 2007 7:21am May 28, 2007 7:21am
I am not so shure about oil prices moving cad down in summer. Because it is just logical that Oil price will increase, well at least don't think that this will be a surprise. But we will see
  • #269
  • May 28, 2007 7:36am May 28, 2007 7:36am
you're gonna end up with pancreatitis at this rate...


Quoting amylase

eee ahhh dooo eerrr

i'm the IDIOT (may be the only in the world), and i go long. I'm ready to blow my account. Hooah this is getting exciting.

TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #270
  • May 28, 2007 10:45am May 28, 2007 10:45am
Quoting pujolshomerun
I am long since it was 1.1750.

I have 4000 dollars in my account and my unrealized profit is like negative 2000 dollars now.

I really hope it reverse. I can't even eat or sleep everyday.
Wooow! That's what I call letting go of the wheel. Why not bail out now while you still have an account. You must be on the brink of a margin call.

Btw--I'm long (small piece) at current price of 1.0801 with order for another small piece at 1.0775. Stop @ 1.0684. T/P @ 1.1050. 1% of account.
  • #271
  • May 28, 2007 11:22am May 28, 2007 11:22am
Quoting pujolshomerun
I am long since it was 1.1750.

I have 4000 dollars in my account and my unrealized profit is like negative 2000 dollars now.

I really hope it reverse. I can't even eat or sleep everyday.

I don't know how or what signals you are using to trade BUT where were you when this thing has a slight bounce. You have had 3 decent moves to the upside since end of April to chip away at your losses. You have several options here.

1. Get out now and suck up the loss

2. Catch a bounce, double your position (if possible) get as much as you can
and get out or hedge back down to another bottom bouce(Risky very risky)

3. Let it ride until your broke

Personally if in this position I would close the trade and live to trade another day. It's a hell of a lesson to learn but at least you will sleep eat and trade tomorrow. Sometimes when you do something like this it is a lesson that you will not forget or repeat.

EArly in my trading days of Forex I suffered a loss of $2,000+ dollars in a span of about 30 seconds trading NFP ( I had no clue that the market could move that fast) I learned 2 things never trade without a stop loss in place and trading NFP is not for me. I haven't done either since that fateful day 2+ years ago.
  • #272
  • May 28, 2007 1:45pm May 28, 2007 1:45pm
I lost $35,000 3 days ago on US/CAD.I had 52 lots long from 1.1616.I was playing with forex and I had made $11,000 so I was proud of myself and I lost.
Right now I am really depressed.My family life is in danger.My wife is leaving me.I nvere thought about stop loss and now I understand how important is that.
I had no idea about money mangment,First I gained,Then I lost and now I am reading about Forex.So don't call yourself idiot because I am the most idiot person in the world.

I know you guys are profesionals. I wrote these things to feel a little bit better.
I am lighter now.
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #273
  • May 28, 2007 2:07pm May 28, 2007 2:07pm
Quoting mike1349
I lost $35,000 3 days ago on US/CAD.I had 52 lots long from 1.1616.I was playing with forex and I had made $11,000 so I was proud of myself and I lost.
Right now I am really depressed.My family life is in danger.My wife is leaving me.I nvere thought about stop loss and now I understand how important is that.
I had no idea about money mangment,First I gained,Then I lost and now I am reading about Forex.So don't call yourself idiot because I am the most idiot person in the world.

I know you guys are profesionals. I wrote these things to feel a little bit better.
I am lighter now.
Sorry to read that. You should consider step waaaay back and start all over. Go easy on the size. I'm trading live but small lots and gave myself 1 year before considering going hot in forex. 6 months are gone and I can see how this was a nice decision.

Just for the record, 350 pips are gone since the foundation of the thread, named reversal. Nothing against you, WTB. The chart you posted made sense at that time. Or at least, was good enough to bring the question up.
  • #274
  • May 28, 2007 2:15pm May 28, 2007 2:15pm
hey mike

u learned a big lesson i have traded too without stops but never surfered such loss my broker cantacted me once and advissed me at least to have a worst case scenario stop loss i have that know. but i must say having bigg room have gained me more profit than being whipslahing out 50 pip here and there and i have finally got the dicipline to get out on my daily stop so i have never get stopped yet on the worst case scenario. when u trade usdcad u MUST look at oil and or cadyen

revoke
  • #275
  • May 28, 2007 2:26pm May 28, 2007 2:26pm
Quoting mike1349
I lost $35,000 3 days ago on US/CAD.I had 52 lots long from 1.1616.I was playing with forex and I had made $11,000 so I was proud of myself and I lost.
Right now I am really depressed.My family life is in danger.My wife is leaving me.I nvere thought about stop loss and now I understand how important is that.
I had no idea about money mangment,First I gained,Then I lost and now I am reading about Forex.So don't call yourself idiot because I am the most idiot person in the world.

I know you guys are profesionals. I wrote these things to feel a little bit better.
I am lighter now.
I bottomed my first account and lost a good portion of my second before i started to turn things around---slowly!! I kept over leveraging myself and have learned to trade fewer lots at a time.
I like trading and am determined to learn to do it well. I have had failures, but it does not mean i have failed!
I have to admit i underestimated the "learning" part, but i'll get there, and so can you.
Bring It...
  • #276
  • May 28, 2007 3:49pm May 28, 2007 3:49pm
Quoting cesarnc
Sorry to read that. You should consider step waaaay back and start all over. Go easy on the size. I'm trading live but small lots and gave myself 1 year before considering going hot in forex. 6 months are gone and I can see how this was a nice decision.
Taking the same approach myself, started with a mini account. Although after I opened it I read about micro accounts. But I'm not playing with anything I can't afford to lose. If after a year I maintain my account profitability I'll consider putting more into the account. That is if it's not a $1,000,000 account by then.
  • #277
  • May 28, 2007 4:45pm May 28, 2007 4:45pm
[quote Just for the record, 350 pips are gone since the foundation of the thread, named reversal. Nothing against you, WTB. The chart you posted made sense at that time. Or at least, was good enough to bring the question up.[/quote]

There's a point that's hard to argue.
  • #278
  • May 28, 2007 5:03pm May 28, 2007 5:03pm
Quoting revoke
hey mike

u learned a big lesson i have traded too without stops but never surfered such loss my broker cantacted me once and advissed me at least to have a worst case scenario stop loss i have that know. but i must say having bigg room have gained me more profit than being whipslahing out 50 pip here and there and i have finally got the dicipline to get out on my daily stop so i have never get stopped yet on the worst case scenario. when u trade usdcad u MUST look at oil and or cadyen

revoke
Dear Revoke,
Would you explain to me what's the relation between US/CAd and CAd/Yen?
thanks
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #279
  • May 28, 2007 7:31pm May 28, 2007 7:31pm
Quote
Quoting pujolshomerun
I am long since it was 1.1750.

I have 4000 dollars in my account and my unrealized profit is like negative 2000 dollars now.

I really hope it reverse. I can't even eat or sleep everyday.

USD/CAD hasn't moved to speak of in the last 24 hours so no more damage has been done since you made your post. Back at 1.1750 the chart looked different. Now you have new information. If you weren't in the trade right now and you saw the chart for the first time today would you still enter it long?
Look at what the chart is telling you today, not what it was telling you in March.

Personally I would get out, step back and rest. The market will still be here after you've formulated a new plan. Don't let this single trade kill you emotionally or financially.

Whatever decision you make, I wish you all the best.
  • #280
  • May 28, 2007 9:00pm May 28, 2007 9:00pm
Last month report from Bank of Canada website. Gives some guidance about what we may expect for tomorrow. Personally, I will be closing parcial short positions prior to the announcement (or tonight) to book some pips and re-entering if downtrend is favored.

Quote
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
26 April 2007
Bank of Canada releases Monetary Policy Report

OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today released its April Monetary Policy Report, which discusses current economic and financial trends in the context of Canada's inflation-control strategy.
Growth of the Canadian economy has been essentially in line with the Bank's expectations as set out in the January Monetary Policy Report Update. But inflation has been higher than expected. After considering the full range of indicators, the Bank now judges that the Canadian economy was operating just above its production capacity in the first quarter of this year.
Over the projection horizon, domestic demand continues to be the main driver of growth in Canada. With the U.S. slowdown now expected to be somewhat more prolonged than previously projected, net exports should exert a slightly greater drag on growth in 2007. The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2.2 per cent in 2007 and 2.7 per cent in both 2008 and 2009, returning to its production capacity in the second half of 2007 and remaining there through 2008 and 2009.
Core inflation should remain slightly above 2 per cent over the coming months, given pressures on capacity and the impact of higher core food prices. But with the economy projected to return to its production capacity in the second half of this year and with further easing of pressures from housing prices, upward pressure on core inflation is expected to moderate, bringing core inflation back to 2 per cent by the end of 2007.
Total CPI inflation is projected to rise above the 2 per cent inflation target in the second half of this year, peaking below 3 per cent near the end of 2007 before returning to the target by mid-2008.
The Bank continues to judge that the risks to its inflation projection are roughly balanced, although there is now a slight tilt to the upside.
On Tuesday, the Bank left its key policy rate unchanged at 4 1/4 per cent. The current level of the policy interest rate is judged, at this time, to be consistent with achieving the inflation target over the medium term.
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