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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #241
  • May 26, 2007 8:20am May 26, 2007 8:20am
I LOL'ed at the "WTF?" in that chart
  • #242
  • May 26, 2007 8:28am May 26, 2007 8:28am
Quoting WTB
I LOL'ed at the "WTF?" in that chart
Yeah... You can see WTFish posts here on breach of 1.1000, 1.0900 and Friday's 1.0800
  • #243
  • May 26, 2007 12:00pm May 26, 2007 12:00pm

WTF? its below 1.08 now? i need to put in more $ to feed my longs. damn

  • #244
  • May 26, 2007 12:06pm May 26, 2007 12:06pm
Quoting cesarnc
So, even if the CAD stops its willing to go up against the dollar, the dollar breaking this 2005' low will push USDCAD all the way down. And there will be no foreseable bottom for the dollar, as we shouldn't be looking for USDCAD's at this moment.
Great post/recap of the DX. I agree wholeheartedly. Any rebound in USDCAD will end up D.O.A. if the DX is not able to break out of its bearish environment. As such, EURCAD and GBPCAD continue to be the pairs to watch when CAD cools.
  • #245
  • May 26, 2007 12:18pm May 26, 2007 12:18pm

...Imagine a world like this.


For some reason, currency speculators pushed USD/CAD pair to 0.5000

Wealth of americans decreased by half. Measured in per capital GDP terms and is now an upper "Developing Country". Got kicked out of G8.

Canadian conservatives are pushing for legislation to put up a "Chinese Wall"
along its border with the U.S. to prevent illegal American immigrants from
crossing into the heavenly land of Canada.

Hawaii declared independence and Alaska broke of with US and went to hang out with Canada.


this is not going to happen unless some meteor hit the earth and flip it over by 20 degrees.

  • #246
  • May 26, 2007 12:28pm May 26, 2007 12:28pm

wall street trader/hedge fund documentary for your procrastination needs.


http://www.mojohd.com/video/?sid=8&eid=4

  • #247
  • May 26, 2007 12:51pm May 26, 2007 12:51pm
Quoting amylase

WTF? its below 1.08 now? i need to put in more $ to feed my longs. damn

Even if USDCAD goes up from 1.0800, we should AT LEAST expect a strong resistance at the previous multi-years low 1.9000ish.

So you will be in reward of 100pips to a risk of 100? 200? 300? Can you tell???

You will be trading a R:R ratio which Reward is known but the Risk is undetermined.

Shorting at 0800, you will have a Risk that is known (1.9000 breached back up) but with an undetermined Reward INLINE withe the prevailing trend. Place a trailing stop and you're risk decrease every pip it goes down.

This way, you don't have to waste time trying to figure out the final station. It will be shown to you by the market.
  • #248
  • May 26, 2007 1:28pm May 26, 2007 1:28pm
Quoting cesarnc
Even if USDCAD goes up from 1.0800, we should AT LEAST expect a strong resistance at the previous multi-years low 1.9000ish.

So you will be in reward of 100pips to a risk of 100? 200? 300? Can you tell???

You will be trading a R:R ratio which Reward is known but the Risk is undetermined.

Shorting at 0800, you will have a Risk that is known (1.9000 breached back up) but with an undetermined Reward INLINE withe the prevailing trend. Place a trailing stop and you're risk decrease every pip it goes down.

This way, you don't have to waste time trying to figure out the final station. It will be shown to you by the market.

Dude how could you tell "reward is known"? How could you be absolutely sure whatsoever that it won't break 1.9000? If you are 100% sure, buy an option with terms of no break above 1.9000 and make millions.

It's not like you said "reward is known, risk is unknown". Truth is both risk and reward is unknown. But since i have stop loss of 30 pips, i can safely assume that risk is known (30pips) and reward is unknown.


Reward is not known, risk is also not known.
  • #249
  • May 26, 2007 1:38pm May 26, 2007 1:38pm

If you are absolutely, positively certain that USD/CAD is 100% absolutely positively definitely going down, keep shorting it brutally.


I, amylase, a village idiot from somewhere in the forgotten land of Saskatchewan will put every single straw, moth, pond mud, and duck feather I have to go long this pair.


Eee Ahrl woo HIII dooo.

  • #250
  • May 26, 2007 1:42pm May 26, 2007 1:42pm

Since people on this thread seem to be united unanimously on shorting this pair. there has to be some idiot to be on the other side just to keep this thread going.

I'm willing to be taht idiot.

  • #251
  • May 26, 2007 2:21pm May 26, 2007 2:21pm
Quoting amylase

Since people on this thread seem to be united unanimously on shorting this pair. there has to be some idiot to be on the other side just to keep this thread going.

I'm willing to be taht idiot.

No, BUDDY. Idiot is staying asking "how far it goes down" for the last 300 pips!

Thanks for remind me why I was supposed to stay off this damn thread.
  • #252
  • May 26, 2007 2:24pm May 26, 2007 2:24pm
Quoting amylase
Dude how could you tell "reward is known"? How could you be absolutely sure whatsoever that it won't break 1.9000? If you are 100% sure, buy an option with terms of no break above 1.9000 and make millions.
Because if you are not the IDIOT you are saying that YOU ARE NOT, then you will be SMART enough to Take Profit at 1.9000 as expected resistance that it is. Or you do not expected a previous support to become resistance? That would be stupid.
  • #253
  • May 26, 2007 2:27pm May 26, 2007 2:27pm
Quoting amylase

Since people on this thread seem to be united unanimously on shorting this pair. there has to be some idiot to be on the other side just to keep this thread going.

I'm willing to be taht idiot.

THAT is idiot. And THAT's what you doing...
Attached Image
  • #254
  • May 26, 2007 2:46pm May 26, 2007 2:46pm
Take this. Just one of the materials I used to build my view....

As I'm back having nothing else to add, good luck to all. I'm short.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf cad.pdf   135 KB | 419 downloads
  • #255
  • May 26, 2007 4:16pm May 26, 2007 4:16pm

eee ahhh dooo eerrr

i'm the IDIOT (may be the only in the world), and i go long. I'm ready to blow my account. Hooah this is getting exciting.

  • #256
  • May 26, 2007 4:28pm May 26, 2007 4:28pm
Quoting cesarnc
Because if you are not the IDIOT you are saying that YOU ARE NOT, then you will be SMART enough to Take Profit at 1.9000 as expected resistance that it is. Or you do not expected a previous support to become resistance? That would be stupid.

I'm not saying i am not an idiot. I'm say exactly the opposite.

I AM a stupid village idiot, and i long USD/cad.
  • #257
  • May 26, 2007 5:46pm May 26, 2007 5:46pm
Pretty interesting to go long with such a busy week ahead. The markets will probably be dead sunday and monday. But after those days there should be a good amount of news coming out for the US not to mention CAD interest rates, where we should see a .25% inc. So this could either make or break your longs. The fundamental side is always up in the air.

But technically, your trying to pick a bottom. This market whether you look at the short term trend or long term trend has been going down. Good luck with that long

O, and dont forget, if oil goes up, USDCAD goes down. With the driving season coming into play, i dont see oil going down, maybe staying level for a bit, but not going down.
  • #258
  • May 26, 2007 6:19pm May 26, 2007 6:19pm
I am long since it was 1.1750.

I have 4000 dollars in my account and my unrealized profit is like negative 2000 dollars now.

I really hope it reverse. I can't even eat or sleep everyday.
When I buy it, it moves down. When I sell it, it moves up.
  • #259
  • May 26, 2007 6:29pm May 26, 2007 6:29pm
Quoting pujolshomerun
I am long since it was 1.1750.

I have 4000 dollars in my account and my unrealized profit is like negative 2000 dollars now.

I really hope it reverse. I can't even eat or sleep everyday.
Ouch I hope that's a demo, I don't see it coming up much. Maybe a slow climb up sunday, but it's douptful it will get far.
  • #260
  • May 26, 2007 6:33pm May 26, 2007 6:33pm
Quoting pujolshomerun
I am long since it was 1.1750.

I have 4000 dollars in my account and my unrealized profit is like negative 2000 dollars now.

I really hope it reverse. I can't even eat or sleep everyday.

Prime example of cut your losses. Might be only -$2,000 right now, but it could soon wipe out your account. Hoping is not enough, and thinking that way is only going to hurt you. Should have set a better stop loss!
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