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SRTLfd Discussion

  • #1,641
  • Jul 20, 2023 10:26am Jul 20, 2023 10:26am
Quoting Steverino832
{quote} but in a black swan event, stop loss is no guarantee it will get triggered
That's true, keep just enough money to service the opened positions in your broker account.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #1,642
  • Jul 20, 2023 10:30am Jul 20, 2023 10:30am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} i am going for vacation tomorrow.
GOLD will be trading in a narrow range since the GOLD trader is on vacation
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #1,643
  • Jul 20, 2023 10:50am Jul 20, 2023 10:50am
each will have their own money management.
i think i mentioned before, i see profit n loss on a weekly basis.
always put a limit on losses to protect capital.

depending on situations, i can put my limit loss on this week's profit.
or even last week's profit. no more than that.
just my way of not touching the capital.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,644
  • Jul 20, 2023 10:55am Jul 20, 2023 10:55am
in the perfect world, h4 having a srtl set up and d1 having a bearish engulfing candle over the doji.
all depending where candles close.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,645
  • Jul 28, 2023 9:42am Jul 28, 2023 9:42am
this week qm set and forget sell trade.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,646
  • Jul 28, 2023 10:47pm Jul 28, 2023 10:47pm
for next week.
uj approaching key level.
if usd weaken, gold and gu bullish.
if jpy strengthen, gj bearish.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,647
  • Jul 29, 2023 4:38am Jul 29, 2023 4:38am
@Inthebox

Welcome back.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #1,648
  • Jul 30, 2023 2:56am Jul 30, 2023 2:56am
want to have 70-80% success rate?

1) patience to wait for trade set ups
pattern set up: srtl, quasimodo, sr flip.
quick entry set up: engulf, double marubozo, drop base drop, rally base rally.

2) all trade set ups have to be confirmed by
higher time frame engulf, double marubozo, drop base drop, rally base rally.

only 2 requirements.
but it will fail mainly due to our lack of patience or no htf confirmation.

illustration to be shown below later.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,649
  • Jul 30, 2023 3:30am Jul 30, 2023 3:30am
working backward as it is a historical data.

using d1 chart for the month of july, for the sake of simplicity we have 9 trades, one of which shouldn't be trading due to US gdp and unemployment claims.
highlighted were htf double marubozo and engulfing.

go down to lower time frames, what can you see?
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,650
  • Jul 30, 2023 3:53am Jul 30, 2023 3:53am
do you see what i see in lower time frames?
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,651
  • Jul 30, 2023 4:17am Jul 30, 2023 4:17am
Quoting Inthebox
working backward as it is a historical data. using d1 chart for the month of july, for the sake of simplicity we have 9 trades, one of which shouldn't be trading due to US gdp and unemployment claims. highlighted were htf double marubozo and engulfing. go down to lower time frames, what can you see? {image}
Could you please provide more details on the double marubuzo? Thanks in advance.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #1,652
  • Jul 30, 2023 4:30am Jul 30, 2023 4:30am
Quoting fxpider
{quote} Could you please provide more details on the double marubuzo? Thanks in advance.
2 candle bodies side by side not at same level, one up one down.
inside the wicks, you will see rally base rally, drop base drop in lower time frames.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,653
  • Jul 30, 2023 4:48am Jul 30, 2023 4:48am
if you have the time read
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...alysis-fallacy

i think he was the only one in FF who was a chief dealer in the banking sector, having worked before in four tier one banks.

i do not understand fully, just got pieces here and there.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,654
  • Jul 30, 2023 4:51am Jul 30, 2023 4:51am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} 2 candle bodies side by side not at same level, one up one down. inside the wicks, you will see rally base rally, drop base drop in lower time frames. {image}
Does the color have to be the same?
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #1,655
  • Jul 30, 2023 5:07am Jul 30, 2023 5:07am
Quoting fxpider
{quote} Does the color have to be the same?
need not be the same color.
since their candle bodies are up and down, there be a volume gap involved.

same color shows trade continuation.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,656
  • Jul 30, 2023 9:50pm Jul 30, 2023 9:50pm
Quoting Inthebox
if you have the time read https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...alysis-fallacy i think he was the only one in FF who was a chief dealer in the banking sector, having worked before in four tier one banks. i do not understand fully, just got pieces here and there.
wow, didn't know you read up on his thread..
the way his message came across was very interesting..
very good read but sad that he isn't active in FF anymore
  • #1,657
  • Edited 11:30pm Jul 30, 2023 11:15pm | Edited 11:30pm
Quoting j4f
{quote} very good read but sad that he isn't active in FF anymore
he is already very old and sick, requiring aids to breathe.
be aware that his style of trading may not be suitable for most of us.
he is into short term trading the m5 tf using big lots, layering entries to get in and layering to exit.
and he does not use stop loss.

some takeaway from him in post 8:

Indicators have no capacity to be predictive, by virtue that they are derivatives of historical database.
From my engagements in the markets as marketmaker, FX spot interbank, we actually capitalise on these "sitting duck levels" by sweeping for them, esp the stops zones.
But for this moment, my point is that I find it rather disturbing that some traders are over crowding their minds with too much indicator reads and neglecting the "feel the trend aspect" of wihich most lag indicators were devised for. Their over dependence on predictive indicator reads, creates a very dangerous mindset for prudent trading.
There has also been a big growth of "Black Box " Systems being sold by so called analyst that promotes and sells the "fallacy" that technical analysis is mostly predictive in nature using certain "secret parameters". I 've seen during my time, that most of them fails over the long run, and it actually damages the outlook to technical studies.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,658
  • Jul 31, 2023 12:15am Jul 31, 2023 12:15am
Quoting Inthebox
for next week. uj approaching key level. if usd weaken, gold and gu bullish. if jpy strengthen, gj bearish. {image} {image}
uj doing its job.
was still sleeping.
zone magnet attracting bees to honey.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,659
  • Jul 31, 2023 12:39am Jul 31, 2023 12:39am
nothing much to do until europe open.

sharpening skill.
cny pmi positive, so commodities ccy aud, nzd bullish.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,660
  • Jul 31, 2023 4:58am Jul 31, 2023 4:58am
Gold is reacting to this level as expected. let's see if it is a sustainable one.

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Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
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