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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

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  • Post #4,721
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2007 2:29pm May 24, 2007 2:29pm
  •  Palmer
  • | Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Cruising The Outer Rim... | 2,175 Posts
Just a note on the Euor$..

Had to squeeeeze the chart to get this but price is at the bottom of the current channel and is also on an uptrend line...
Attached Image
 
 
  • Post #4,722
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  • May 24, 2007 2:59pm May 24, 2007 2:59pm
  •  fxhermit
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: The price is right. | 782 Posts
Quoting Palmer
Disliked
Just a note on the Euor$..

Had to squeeeeze the chart to get this but price is at the bottom of the current channel and is also on an uptrend line...
Ignored
Just looking at the "way out" picture and it seems to me that there is still some downside potential, that of course doesn't mean that there isn't some short term upside opportunity to be had here and there.
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Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
 
 
  • Post #4,723
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2007 3:53pm May 24, 2007 3:53pm
  •  tamkras
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: My piggy bank loves pips, too | 305 Posts
Quoting fxhermit
Disliked
Yup, Jim it is definately worth ones time to dig out Tamkras's posts on inside tops/bottoms, nesting dolls, etc.

Tamkras, you are wise beyond your years, nice call on GBP!
Ignored
sorry, Fxhermit, had no chance to review the posts yesterday. Trading this pattern suits my style and it works for me. It is really an individual call if anyone wants to incorporate the pattern into their arsenal of setups. Someone can trade H&S - I do not, there are Gartley butterflies and crabs that may prove profitable for great traders but there is less chance for me, I know that. All because I am in the constant search of what should work for me. Like the market which tries to live its own life and creates new patterns, a trader can follow them and build her/his system upon them. I am sure over time we shall find something else exciting (profitable I mean, he-he..). I thank you for your kind words - I am no wiser than your market observations such as the elephant and the flee, they are part of my trader's vocabulary! I might repeat Pips' pieces of wisdom that I am learning from all of you.

P.S. btw, still short eur/chf and usd/chf. We had new reversal candles which bounced off the inside top and it confirmed to keep my shorts. Eur/chf is definitely the best which is my developing story and it will have a happy ending.
 
 
  • Post #4,724
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2007 6:19pm May 24, 2007 6:19pm
  •  fxhermit
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: The price is right. | 782 Posts
Quoting tamkras
Disliked
sorry, Fxhermit, had no chance to review the posts yesterday. Trading this pattern suits my style and it works for me. It is really an individual call if anyone wants to incorporate the pattern into their arsenal of setups. Someone can trade H&S - I do not, there are Gartley butterflies and crabs that may prove profitable for great traders but there is less chance for me, I know that. All because I am in the constant search of what should work for me. Like the market which tries to live its own life and creates new patterns, a trader can follow them and build her/his system upon them. I am sure over time we shall find something else exciting (profitable I mean, he-he..). I thank you for your kind words - I am no wiser than your market observations such as the elephant and the flee, they are part of my trader's vocabulary! I might repeat Pips' pieces of wisdom that I am learning from all of you.

P.S. btw, still short eur/chf and usd/chf. We had new reversal candles which bounced off the inside top and it confirmed to keep my shorts. Eur/chf is definitely the best which is my developing story and it will have a happy ending.
Ignored
Jasper Friendly Bear loves your "Pearls of Wisdom".

Glad to hear that you are discovering the EURCHF. You will love it, I am sure! I have gotten so laaazy trading it that I basically almost by rote take the MACD signals that coincide with the HMA colour changes. I only trade in the direction of the major trend because the trend legs are so beautifully corellated with the 150sma that I can continually scale in and accumulate "free positions" as the trend leg evolves. A few posts back I discussed the topic off scaling in. I have found the EURCHF to be a great candidate for this approach. You can pay off the morgage with this one .
Attached Image
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
 
 
  • Post #4,725
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2007 6:47pm May 24, 2007 6:47pm
  •  Palmer
  • | Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Cruising The Outer Rim... | 2,175 Posts
fxhermit: I agree with the additional downside room.

For Bill2205:

I'm not an advanced Fibo user by any means so, please somebody correct me if I'm wrong here. As far as plotting the Fibo #'s I like to look for the last lowest low and the last highest high on the next higher timeframe. If tradding on the 4hr, then I look at the daily for Fib #'s, and take note of what the monthly is doing as well. There are times when the daily and monthly can have the Fib line plotted (although it will be a different retracement number) at the same price so this can act as a major S/R point.

This daily chart if from 'past history. The first vertical line is on 11/14/05 and the second is on 5/10/06. Imagine that the price action AFTER 5/10/06 hasn't happened yet but you do have the FIb #s plotted. Now, look how price reacted between the 100 and 61.8 Fib lines after 5/10/06. With these plotted on the daily, as price is approaching these areas on the 4hr, and knowing this ahead of time, I see this as more confirmation with the 4hr MACD signal. At the green vertical line price breaks through the 100 Fib line then comes back to it (right around the 89) for a few weeks before taking off again. Looking at the next higher timeframe, the daily, gives a better perspective of what price might do when it approaches these areas.

As far as plotting the Fib #'s on the 4hr and specifically trading those with Phillip's method, if a MACD signal occurs (Rt or Rb) along with a Fib # I'd be more 'comfortable' with the signal, or one of the moving averages coincides with one of the fib #'s, same thing.

Please, anyone add anything to this if they have other 'ideas'...
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  • Post #4,726
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2007 7:11pm May 24, 2007 7:11pm
  •  fxhermit
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: The price is right. | 782 Posts
Just wanted to add, the daily chart has been great for pullback entries for some time now. It looks to me as though this pair could be due for a secondary correction, they do eventually revisit the trendlines and moving averages. As the daily shows, price has stood up and away from support and may be over extended (MACD divergence?). The weekly shows that price is into a top from back some years (1998) for what that's worth. Since I am out off all my long positions since the break of support at 1.6528, I am just sitting and watching for the moment.
Attached Images
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
 
 
  • Post #4,727
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2007 7:31pm May 24, 2007 7:31pm
  •  fxhermit
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: The price is right. | 782 Posts
Quoting Palmer
Disliked
fxhermit: I agree with the additional downside room.

For Bill2205:

I'm not an advanced Fibo user by any means so, please somebody correct me if I'm wrong here. As far as plotting the Fibo #'s I like to look for the last lowest low and the last highest high on the next higher timeframe. If tradding on the 4hr, then I look at the daily for Fib #'s, and take note of what the monthly is doing as well. There are times when the daily and monthly can have the Fib line plotted (although it will be a different retracement number) at the same price so this can act as a major S/R point.

This daily chart if from 'past history. The first vertical line is on 11/14/05 and the second is on 5/10/06. Imagine that the price action AFTER 5/10/06 hasn't happened yet but you do have the FIb #s plotted. Now, look how price reacted between the 100 and 61.8 Fib lines after 5/10/06. With these plotted on the daily, as price is approaching these areas on the 4hr, and knowing this ahead of time, I see this as more confirmation with the 4hr MACD signal. At the green vertical line price breaks through the 100 Fib line then comes back to it (right around the 89) for a few weeks before taking off again. Looking at the next higher timeframe, the daily, gives a better perspective of what price might do when it approaches these areas.

As far as plotting the Fib #'s on the 4hr and specifically trading those with Phillip's method, if a MACD signal occurs (Rt or Rb) along with a Fib # I'd be more 'comfortable' with the signal, or one of the moving averages coincides with one of the fib #'s, same thing.

Please, anyone add anything to this if they have other 'ideas'...
Ignored
Terriffic observation, Palmer. I would like to add that, if you'll notice, on your chart the 100 fib line if extended to the left coincides with previous tops and that is probably why it acted as resistance as your Fib has marked it. I would also like to say that when price is "trapped between the Fib's as you have shown, we are apt want to know when and in which direction that we may expect the breakout. Well, this is where the moving averages often work their magic. Your chart has a beautiful example of the price becoming trapped between two moving averages while at the same time as it is trapped between your Fib's. I often pay attention when the MA's trap price during a trading range, it is often the heads up to the breakout and I have on occassion even entered a trade early on that setup alone.
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
 
 
  • Post #4,728
  • Quote
  • Edited 8:36pm May 24, 2007 7:52pm | Edited 8:36pm
  •  tamkras
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: My piggy bank loves pips, too | 305 Posts
Dollar-yen also had a nice price rejection from the inside top this morning and I took the chance. Looks like yen crosses are going home today to bears (maybe, to Jasper Friendly Bear's, too?). Eh-he-he, I was wrong by exactly a week about the yen bottom thinking it would be on May 17th. The yen index probably touched it today. Your call, folks, if I am to be ostracized from this thread...My piggy is also angry with me...

My avatar shows my mood, too.

No bullish pinbars on yen crosses today, allright? What does it say?
 
 
  • Post #4,729
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2007 8:42pm May 24, 2007 8:42pm
  •  fxhermit
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: The price is right. | 782 Posts
Quoting tamkras
Disliked
Dollar-yen also had a nice price rejection from the inside top this morning and I took the chance. Looks like yen crosses are going home today to bears (maybe, to Jasper Friendly Bear's, too?). Eh-he-he, I was wrong by exactly a week about the yen bottom thinking it would be on May 17th. The yen index probably touched it today. Your call, folks, if I am to be ostracized from this thread...My piggy is also angry with me...

My avatar shows my mood, too.
Ignored
O.K. Tamkras, you are scaring me now, did you borrow that sixth sense from Pips. I had my order set for the downside breakout also known as a trend continuation signal in the 1hr. Don't know why I have it stop lossed up so tight but I guess that is all I'm willing to risk, if it turns and breaks the MA then I'm out.
Attached Image
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
 
 
  • Post #4,730
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2007 8:51pm May 24, 2007 8:51pm
  •  fxhermit
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: The price is right. | 782 Posts
Targeting the 89sma seems like a decent R:R
Attached Image
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
 
 
  • Post #4,731
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2007 8:51pm May 24, 2007 8:51pm
  •  tamkras
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: My piggy bank loves pips, too | 305 Posts
Quoting fxhermit
Disliked
O.K. Tamkras, you are scaring me now, did you borrow that sixth sense from Pips. I had my order set for the downside breakout also known as a trend continuation signal in the 1hr. Don't know why I have it stop lossed up so tight but I guess that is all I'm willing to risk, if it turns and breaks the MA then I'm out.
Ignored
I am holding my breath when I see my new Avatar. But it is temporary, I assure you. My mask is my mood. Hey, Jasper, do you see that long pinbar on your chart reversing from the previous hill? Yeah-yeah, that's when I entered.
 
 
  • Post #4,732
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2007 8:56pm May 24, 2007 8:56pm
  •  fxhermit
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: The price is right. | 782 Posts
Quoting tamkras
Disliked
I am holding my breath when I see my new Avatar. But it is temporary, I assure you. My mask is my mood. Hey, Jasper, do you see that long pinbar on your chart reversing from the previous hill? Yeah-yeah, that's when I entered.
Ignored
Perfect! I'm sure we will see a smile on your piggy's face once again.
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
 
 
  • Post #4,733
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:43pm May 24, 2007 9:17pm | Edited 9:43pm
  •  tamkras
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: My piggy bank loves pips, too | 305 Posts
Quoting fxhermit
Disliked
Perfect! I'm sure we will see a smile on your piggy's face once again.
Ignored
I will smile tomorrow when I see the Dow open - he-he. I hope traders are trading now rather than watching the mesmerizing force of bears or reading my jiberish...

I am singing a new rhyme - yeen, zen, yeen, zen... This is the sound of bears rock'n rolling.

9:30 est - I covered 1 lot, first target - 0.68% from the entry is done.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip We Will Rock You.zip   90 KB | 976 downloads
 
 
  • Post #4,734
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2007 9:29pm May 24, 2007 9:29pm
  •  fxhermit
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: The price is right. | 782 Posts
Quoting tamkras
Disliked
I will smile tomorrow when I see the Dow open - he-he. I hope traders are trading now rather than watching the mesmerizing force of bears or reading my jiberish...

I am singing a new rhyme - yeen, zen, yeen, zen... This is the sound of bears rock'n rolling.
Ignored
The daily likes your song! Nice MACD signal too.
Attached Image
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
 
 
  • Post #4,735
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2007 9:45pm May 24, 2007 9:45pm
  •  fxhermit
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: The price is right. | 782 Posts
Some early profit taken home, the rest stopped up rather tight because I am not feeling very generous today, also will be away from the market for the rest of the night so it will have to take care of itself -- no complaints so far . Happy pipping!
Attached Image
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
 
 
  • Post #4,736
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2007 9:47pm May 24, 2007 9:47pm
  •  JoshDance
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Member | 606 Posts
Quoting Foricks
Disliked
I noticed Phillip had extensions of Fibanacci at 123%, 138%, 161%. Investopedia lists only 161, 261, and 423%. Check out http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/...extensions.asp for a good referencing tool. I learned today that "J. Lo" is a technical analysis term...
Ignored
Well that's because 1.61, 2.61, and 4.23 are all fib ratios, whereas the others are not fibonacci ratios. Same for the common .786 ratio seen--it's created by people for use, it's not a fibonacci ratio. But the fact that so many people use these non-fib numbers AS fib numbers means that they have significance.

I thought I'd go back and look for some nice retracements. The first pic shows pretty decent activity at the 4.23 level. The second is current, and shows a nice price trapping between the 1.0 and 1.618 levels...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: fibexs.jpg
Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: fibex-gbpusd.jpg
Size: 40 KB
 
 
  • Post #4,737
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2007 10:41pm May 24, 2007 10:41pm
  •  RyanD
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: Member | 21 Posts
Quoting fxhermit
Disliked
Just wanted to add, the daily chart has been great for pullback entries for some time now. It looks to me as though this pair could be due for a secondary correction, they do eventually revisit the trendlines and moving averages. As the daily shows, price has stood up and away from support and may be over extended (MACD divergence?). The weekly shows that price is into a top from back some years (1998) for what that's worth. Since I am out off all my long positions since the break of support at 1.6528, I am just sitting and watching for the moment.
Ignored
Can you tell me everything that is setup as your SMA's, EMA's, Meaning of all your colors. I want to take a look at this one for the EURCHF
 
 
  • Post #4,738
  • Quote
  • May 25, 2007 12:34am May 25, 2007 12:34am
  •  pips4uandme
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Member | 989 Posts
Quoting fxhermit
Disliked
Terriffic observation, Palmer. I would like to add that, if you'll notice, on your chart the 100 fib line if extended to the left coincides with previous tops and that is probably why it acted as resistance as your Fib has marked it. I would also like to say that when price is "trapped between the Fib's as you have shown, we are apt want to know when and in which direction that we may expect the breakout. Well, this is where the moving averages often work their magic. Your chart has a beautiful example of the price becoming trapped between two moving averages while at the same time as it is trapped between your Fib's. I often pay attention when the MA's trap price during a trading range, it is often the heads up to the breakout and I have on occassion even entered a trade early on that setup alone.
Ignored
Pearls of wisdom! Goes back to the the last few day's discussion of price being squished between the MA's for cable....so nicely worded!

So....traders....keep a good eye on the market....something is going to happen....hope I don't fall asleep on the couch again right before confirmation

& Hermit....I'm getting the crystals ready for our new age trading ....

Happy trading!

Pips
 
 
  • Post #4,739
  • Quote
  • May 25, 2007 12:36am May 25, 2007 12:36am
  •  pips4uandme
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Member | 989 Posts
Quoting tamkras
Disliked
Dollar-yen also had a nice price rejection from the inside top this morning and I took the chance. Looks like yen crosses are going home today to bears (maybe, to Jasper Friendly Bear's, too?). Eh-he-he, I was wrong by exactly a week about the yen bottom thinking it would be on May 17th. The yen index probably touched it today. Your call, folks, if I am to be ostracized from this thread...My piggy is also angry with me...

My avatar shows my mood, too.

No bullish pinbars on yen crosses today, allright? What does it say?
Ignored
your piggy scares me today....

But, your and Fx's discussion on jpy is wonderful!! Thanks for all the insight.
 
 
  • Post #4,740
  • Quote
  • May 25, 2007 3:51am May 25, 2007 3:51am
  •  Depfy
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: Non-junior member | 29 Posts
Quoting Phillip Nel
Disliked
I am using this 4 Hour strategy only for the last month as I have papertraded for 2 years trying everything and or system I could find. (I am trading equities for almost 10 years)I have decided that I will only go live(after some losses-not to serious) after I have studied the field of forex and are satisfied that I have a system that works. I do believe that we are trying to make it to impressive and difficult. This system is simple and easy to understand. I have backtested and forward tested it over more than 200 trades and it gives 300+ pips per month. I never had more than two consecutive losses. I never use a stoploss bigger than 50. There are enough chances to ignore the ones bigger than 50.

I am using this strategy only on the EurUsd and the GbpUsd. Have not tested it on other.
I hope that you will find some use for it and that it put you on the road to financial independence.

EDIT: For a summary of the 4 hour system go to page 289 Post 4335.
Ignored
Thanks a much for your wonderful system.
Very convinient your form, good work!
Volume's too big of your thread, never have seen...
And when I'll read all the posts - I'll give u my opinion,
and statistics also,
and maybe it will help u in some sense...

Hot greetings from our d-r Aybolit.
Your river Limpopo's known to every child in my country..

A rose will bloom, it then will fade...
 
 
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