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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #4,681
  • May 23, 2007 12:10pm May 23, 2007 12:10pm
Thanks for the comments guys. I always trade with a SL, but as the news today had a high impact I maybe should have waited longer before pulling the trigger that way my 2%-3% risk would have not stopped me out. That said I made 30+pips on re-entry So for me both times this week I was correct just my swissy short was a miscalculation on the SL (doh!) and today, well, put that down to lack of experience. I am only trading small till I get more confident so no great worries. As Oscar says "emotions are out, stops are in!"

Good luck.

p.s. away to play lawn bowls now so good luck if something signals this evening.
  • #4,682
  • May 23, 2007 12:22pm May 23, 2007 12:22pm
Quoting gman29
Is there a file that Tamkras has these in or just go about trying to find the posts on these? Thanks all!
Just go to one of Tamkras's posts, click on here name and go to "all posts by Tamkras". Sort through them from there. Have fun!
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #4,683
  • May 23, 2007 12:23pm May 23, 2007 12:23pm
Hi pips,
I am looking very closly at the sweesie, and based on the Phils Theory, if the price crosses the 21.. it will tend to go up to the 21 and the go all the way down to the 89.

So based on this, do you think that this could be the case? Are you expecting a go down all the way down to the 89?

thanks for your advice

Ignacio
  • #4,684
  • Edited 1:14pm May 23, 2007 1:10pm | Edited 1:14pm
Quoting Nacho_1975
Hi pips,
I am looking very closly at the sweesie, and based on the Phils Theory, if the price crosses the 21.. it will tend to go up to the 21 and the go all the way down to the 89.

So based on this, do you think that this could be the case? Are you expecting a go down all the way down to the 89?

thanks for your advice

Ignacio
Hi Ignacio,

The answer to your question is yes, eventually. I am now flat on Swissie as my shorts have all been closed out. Notice, price has closed on top of the hourly 89 but hasn't given it's direction away yet.

Price has closed above an inside Top Low Support area at 1.2255 and closed within a upward channel whose support line was at 1.2261. MACD is also giving long signal now. (leading me to think another stab at 1.2330 is in the cards)...also price retreated to 21 and could be continuing it's move up before moving back down....but the tail on the dip to 1.2239 indicates buying from below and doesn't favor more downside at this moment in time.

I would have to see a failure of 1.2330/35 again in order to short or a break/close above 1.2343 to go long (w/Macd confirmation either on 4 hour or 1 hour).
Then I would target 21 and 1.2255 area again w/ 1 lot move to BE for an opportunity to travel to the 89 (just in case). I'd also consider a retrace to 1.2255 w/4 hour and 1 hour giving multi-long confirmation for a long entry.

Sorry the answer isn't cut and dry...that's the problem w/trading...you need to maintain mental flexibility until the market shows it's hand.

Happy trading! Hope you made some pips today!

Pips
  • #4,685
  • May 23, 2007 1:13pm May 23, 2007 1:13pm
Quoting pips4uandme
First of all....I missed a beautiful long entry signal on pound 2 hours ago...and I'm fuming at myself....arrrr .....now i sit and wait for a signal to short (price has hit an upper resistance line on my chart, and is a few pips shy of 89 and about 80 away from another res. zone if this one gives way and price decides to go through 89 before retesting the 21....so I sit and watch....(I really am mad at myself for missing the signal at 2 AM PST.....

Oh well....always will be another great opportunity around the corner....

I wanted to ask if anyone noticed that cable hit the 89 on the daily chart a few days ago and just hit the 21!? Guess if I had really done my homework right, I would have hit the long trade day before yesterday w/a market order at the 89 (which was only a few pips below the flag support)...

So...Tam...if price closes today above the 21 on the daily, I'm bullish short term instead of neutral.....

and price just hit the 89 on 4 hour....and no opportunity to get into this run smartly.....guess I now wait to see what happens around the 200....

How funny...Tam and I thinking the same thing re:89 on daily...and writing our posts about the same time....hmmm...wasn't there when I started typing...

Hope someone out there caught the entry signal and is now up 80 pips!!!
Hi Pips, my chart showed a GBP$weak short signal on the MACD at 0800 candle, i woke up to be stopped out so i wait ed for retracsement and made upfor the loss, plus a few pips. Its really bad when i make more on the retrace than on the actual move. I need to keep studying. Prosperous pipping to all.
  • #4,686
  • May 23, 2007 2:26pm May 23, 2007 2:26pm
Thank you Phillip for explanation, still need a lot to learn from you and other wonderful members of this forum. If I didn't close my trade too early I would have taken my profit at 365MA. One more lesson for me to trust your system. Can you tell me please what Fib levels do you use after 100 as I have only 161?
  • #4,687
  • Edited 4:08pm May 23, 2007 2:55pm | Edited 4:08pm
Hi, Guys , i really appreciate all your help. Can some one please help me analyze this situation. For EUR USD. It is still in downtrend so price will be pulled back down from the 21MA. Now if my MACD confirms a TC on my next candle with a bounce of Zero. SHould i go short on this with profit on lower resistance line and stop loss on upper resistance line.as marked by white signs.Also will the 3 candles qualify as an evening star which indicates a down trend. I dont mean to confuse anyone , just looking for a clear direction and making sure i understand the system correctly.
MANY THANKS IN ADVANCE!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.jpg Size: 53 KB
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #4,688
  • May 23, 2007 3:32pm May 23, 2007 3:32pm
Hi Bill,

Here is a quick chart of E/U. As you can see that I have a trendline right about at the 365 EMA. This might help you with a T/P for your trade.
No buy, hold or sell.

Jim
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,689
  • May 23, 2007 4:11pm May 23, 2007 4:11pm
Thanks Jim for your reply, thats where i have my Take PRofit. the Res line that crosses the 365 at price point 1.3422. Well its on demo account so just trying to learn before i go live. Wishing you tons of pips.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #4,690
  • May 23, 2007 4:34pm May 23, 2007 4:34pm
Hey Bill,

Keep in mind the time of day you are trading.

Just food for thought.

Jim
  • #4,691
  • May 23, 2007 6:19pm May 23, 2007 6:19pm
I see a short opportunity of cable 1.9858, target 1.9835.

Do you agree?

Thanks
  • #4,692
  • Edited 6:33pm May 23, 2007 6:32pm | Edited 6:33pm
Hello Young 09, What time zone are you looking at? Are you looking at GMT + 2 as Phillip? Because, on my Mig Platform (GMT + 2), I do not see a short opportunity yet as there is not enough candles and no MACD signal for a complete RT.

Maybe a RT forming but it needs to develop. Also, the current price is skeeze between the 200SMA as resistance and the 89SMA as support. So, for the time being, there is no clear direction of the Pound regarding the motion of the market.

Just my thought though.


In my case, I will wait to see a clearer picture before making a decision

Shreem
  • #4,693
  • May 23, 2007 9:26pm May 23, 2007 9:26pm
I have a limit order to go short on the GU.
Why?
RT on MACD.
PinBar two candles ago.
My order is below a TL.
GU is in a a downtrend since some days ago.
My TP is right above the 21MA. Just in case it decides to bounce from it.

I am going to bed.
  • #4,694
  • May 23, 2007 11:48pm May 23, 2007 11:48pm
Quoting alcastro
I have a limit order to go short on the GU.
Why?
RT on MACD.
PinBar two candles ago.
My order is below a TL.
GU is in a a downtrend since some days ago.
My TP is right above the 21MA. Just in case it decides to bounce from it.

I am going to bed.
I think I am going to short this too alcastro--only two things make me a little cautious....

1) The "Rule of 3" ... this will make the fourth bounce off the top of the down channel... and as we know, the 4th or 5th testing of a trendline is usually the one that breaks it...

2) Yesterday's strong upwards bull candle... large range, 2nd daily bull candle in a row straight off the bottom of the channel. Makes me think this may be a strong move up.
  • #4,695
  • May 23, 2007 11:55pm May 23, 2007 11:55pm
On my G/U the beautiful RT is forming. According to the rules after the price has come through the 89MA it should go back to the 21MA or at least 8MA so after the close of this candle if there will be MACD signal I am in short. I also like the tail through the 200MA.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1179982006
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: t.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #4,696
  • May 24, 2007 12:47am May 24, 2007 12:47am
I am new to this system, but I thought I may have recognized my first setup around 12am cst. is there a round top, right at the .0045, meaning sell?

thanks
GOT PIPS?
  • #4,697
  • Edited 2:25am May 24, 2007 2:20am | Edited 2:25am
I notice the RT on cable too. I did not take it on the close of the 4am candle though as the tail that went throught the 200sma make my SL too big, so I waited for it to see it it would move back up first to the 200sma. Also the 1H was bothering me as it was showing a TC. Anyway I put an order in @ 1.9880 and it has been filled, TP 1.9840 (8ema) SL 1.9902 (tight)

Good luck all. Nothing else stands out for me , but I am only focusing on EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDYEN and USDCHF.

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/4...d240507gf0.jpg
  • #4,698
  • May 24, 2007 2:29am May 24, 2007 2:29am
Just wondering where you all would have your S/L on the G/U short? I got mine at 1.9905. If it can break through the resistance of the 200SMA, upper channel resistance the 23.6 fib retracement level and the phsycological 1.9900 level then I guess the RT was a false signal.

At the moment there is a real battle going on around the 4hr 200SMA, interesting to see if it holds.

ljman
  • #4,699
  • May 24, 2007 2:31am May 24, 2007 2:31am
Hi Neil,

I don't like to comment on peoples trades, but I have a question for you....

On your G/U short, I have a res. line where your stop is @ 1.9901 ....and this is bid, so if I were short, I'd have to add the spread into it or it would be hit when sell price is 1.9896..... so the stop for me would have to be entered at 1.9906 for TL hit. Was this factored into your numbers? Or am I the only one who only uses bid price on their charts and converts manually?

Probably doesn't matter, was just curious....

Thanks,
Pips
  • #4,700
  • May 24, 2007 2:38am May 24, 2007 2:38am
Quoting ljman
Just wondering where you all would have your S/L on the G/U short? I got mine at 1.9905. If it can break through the resistance of the 200SMA, upper channel resistance the 23.6 fib retracement level and the phsycological 1.9900 level then I guess the RT was a false signal.

At the moment there is a real battle going on around the 4hr 200SMA, interesting to see if it holds.

ljman
I'm flat....but I like your stop area, I'd probably add a few pips "wiggle" room to the number....but I like where you put itb/c of the res. line.

Nice job!

Pips
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