The Daily Fozzy Method | Page 107 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The 4 Hour Fozzy Method 233 replies

FOZZY Method CROSSES 808 replies

Fozzy Alt... one more approach to the Daily Fozzy Method 40 replies

My Daily Fozzy Trades 337 replies

Monthly Fozzy Method 9 replies

Attachments: The Daily Fozzy Method
Exit Attachments

The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #2,121
  • May 22, 2007 7:48am May 22, 2007 7:48am
Maybe you're right but I've read this thread and some about it. So I've found these 3 filters by author and 2 different people who advance this method and even start to give signals in other threads.

Well now I'm intersting people's thougths about: which filtering idea is better?

Thank you and excuse me if I was incorrect!
  • #2,122
  • May 22, 2007 7:56am May 22, 2007 7:56am
OK...........you've read this thread, excellent! Now you need to decide which "filter" is best for YOU. All of us who are Fozzy traders have adapted this method to the way WE like to trade; fitting it into our level of comfort. We use 'discretion' and a personal 'style'. You should do the same! Back and forward test until you have a handle on how this method works well for YOU. Some of 'the regulars' here feel a little frustrated when someone shows up out of nowhere and wants a grocery list of the indicators and a quick explanation of how to be a successful Fozzy trader. It doesn't work that way. The successful people in this sub-forum have put in a lot of time to make this thing work profitably. You'll need to do the same. Personally I hope you stick with it and succeed, but historically the odds are against you.

Quoting aktaurus
Maybe you're right but I've read this thread and some about it. So I've found these 3 filters by author and 2 different people who advance this method and even start to give signals in other threads.

Well now I'm intersting people's thougths about: which filtering idea is better?

Thank you and excuse me if I was incorrect!
  • #2,123
  • May 22, 2007 8:14am May 22, 2007 8:14am
Quoting aktaurus
...
Well now I'm intersting people's thougths about: which filtering idea is better?
...

Again, I don't mean to be a dick to anyone here, but I would take other peoples* thoughts as grains of salt (that is, with very little weight.) 99% of the posters here don't make money (myself included, I'm only trading micros). Sure they're trying, and yes, they will have good ideas from time to time. But you need to find what works for YOU. Try everyone's ideas on paper, see what works, see what doesn't. I found that all these filters are useless, and sound money management and personal discretion works for me, probably not for you.


*unless they have demonstrated that they have at least a vague idea of what they're doing.
So far so good.
  • #2,124
  • May 22, 2007 10:23am May 22, 2007 10:23am
I believe BeachBum and Paul2 are both correct. You can read this entire thread and follow the method 'perfectly' but you WILL fail if you do not do the following: 1) understand the ideas behind the method and why it works, 2) Adapt it to your own personal style, and 3) Use correct money management and risk allocation. I wish everyone the best in trading and I am here to help others in any way I can. But remember the statistics, that almost EVERY trader loses money. But keep with it and study your methods hard. If you trade, as part of the learning process you will eventually fall. But why do we fall? So we can get back up...
  • #2,125
  • May 22, 2007 10:39am May 22, 2007 10:39am
Like I always said..."your education is your best investment."

IMO We have an excellent trading system here. I've been trading live for awhile. When I saw the Fozzy System for the first time, I didn't hesitate to trade it live right away. Hope this will add to your confidence level.

many thanks Fozzy
  • #2,126
  • May 22, 2007 10:58am May 22, 2007 10:58am
EUR/USD Results From 01/01/07 until current; 18 trades

Method 1- Trade closed at next Vegas Daily level
9 Wins, 4 Losses, 5 Break Even; 78% Win Ratio; Total: +243 PIPS

Method 2- Trade closed at 2nd nearest Vegas Daily level (i.e. level following method 1's)
4 Wins, 5 Losses, 9 Break Even; 72% Win Ratio; Total: +118 PIPS

Method 3- Trade closed at +40 PIPS
12 Wins, 4 Losses, 2 Break Even; 78% Win Ratio; Total: +312 PIPS

Method 4- Trade closed at +60 PIPS
7 Wins, 5 Losses, 6 Break Even; 72% Win Ratio; Total: +292 PIPS

Method 5- Trade closed at +80 PIPS
6 Wins, 5 Losses, 7 Break Even; 72% Win Ratio; Total: +249 PIPS

Method 6- Trade closed at 70% of 10 period ATR
9 Wins, 4 Losses, 5 Break Even; 78% Win Ratio; Total: +289 PIPS

Explanations:
Much as the others, I am mindful of the 50 level. I also watch the EUR/USD for back-to-back signals. I will generally review the EUR/USD at the close of the 1400 bar. If the trade has already gone into profit I will not move the S/L to B/E until the end of day. If the trade has gone badly so far and not triggered the original S/L, I will wait to review it at the end of the day. Move the S/L to B/E if the trade has gone over the B/E point. If its at a loss, I will let it run to see if it will reverse.

For those interested how much an impact that leaving the trade alone versus close manipulation at the end of 1400 bar has on the trade here are the second set of numbers. After noticing that messing with the EUR/USD at the 1400 bar close actually effected the trade more negatively than positively, I have thought to just leave it alone. But I went back and looked at the trades based off the 1400 close and decided I would post the 'what if' numbers had I messed around with the trade then.

Method 1- 8 Wins, 7 losses, 3 Break Evens for +89 PIPS
Method 2- 6 Wins, 7 losses, 5 Break Evens for +144 PIPS
Method 3- 9 Wins, 7 losses, 2 Break Evens for +67 PIPS
Method 4- 7 Wins, 7 losses, 4 Break Evens for +90 PIPS
Method 5- 6 Wins, 7 losses, 5 Break Evens for +70 PIPS
Method 6- 8 Wins, 7 losses, 3 Break Evens for +121 PIPS
  • #2,127
  • May 22, 2007 2:53pm May 22, 2007 2:53pm
amen brother.

may i also state that the ONLY filter that works is this

- belief in yourself.

unfortunately it does not come with MT4



Quoting paul2
Again, I don't mean to be a dick to anyone here, but I would take other peoples* thoughts as grains of salt (that is, with very little weight.) 99% of the posters here don't make money (myself included, I'm only trading micros). Sure they're trying, and yes, they will have good ideas from time to time. But you need to find what works for YOU. Try everyone's ideas on paper, see what works, see what doesn't. I found that all these filters are useless, and sound money management and personal discretion works for me, probably not for you.


*unless they have demonstrated that they have at least a vague idea of what they're doing.
  • #2,128
  • May 22, 2007 2:56pm May 22, 2007 2:56pm
"99% of the posters here don't make money "

this is true not just of forex trading, but general life as well.. its only the small % that are able to come up in life.. the vast majority just get along.

time to get off my soapbox now
  • #2,129
  • May 22, 2007 3:37pm May 22, 2007 3:37pm
  •  TPO
  • | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: One Life, One Chance | 68 Posts
Quoting coolshades
"99% of the posters here don't make money "

this is true not just of forex trading, but general life as well.. its only the small % that are able to come up in life.. the vast majority just get along.

time to get off my soapbox now
Agreed - but this is why we're here testing of an evening instead of gazing at the idiot box like contended cows surely
  • #2,130
  • May 22, 2007 5:03pm May 22, 2007 5:03pm
Moooooooooooooooooooooo
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #2,131
  • May 22, 2007 8:16pm May 22, 2007 8:16pm
Quoting TPO
Agreed - but this is why we're here testing of an evening instead of gazing at the idiot box like contended cows surely
Uh, are you saying that those of us on the forum right now are "living the life" as opposed to TV watchers? (sorry, didn't get what you're saying)... I don't know about you, but hopefully this "idiot box" I'm watching this minute will facilitate me making enough money to actually live "the life" in 10 or 15 years...
  • #2,132
  • May 23, 2007 1:31am May 23, 2007 1:31am
Hello,

Just finished reading the whooooooole thread. Amazing source of information, the best I read so far in my short trading history.

I just wanted to thank Fozzy for sharing this method and BeachBum, Wilf, smjones any many others that shared their knowledge with us.

Good trading to all of you

Tomas
  • #2,133
  • May 23, 2007 4:00am May 23, 2007 4:00am
  •  TPO
  • | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: One Life, One Chance | 68 Posts
Quoting JoshDance
Uh, are you saying that those of us on the forum right now are "living the life" as opposed to TV watchers? (sorry, didn't get what you're saying)... I don't know about you, but hopefully this "idiot box" I'm watching this minute will facilitate me making enough money to actually live "the life" in 10 or 15 years...
Hi Josh, I meant more that by working on our trading each night instead of watching TV (the idiot box I was referring to), we are making our way towards 'living the life' far more than the vast majority of people who make no effort to improve their lives.

As you say, we're not *quite* enjoying the life of luxury just yet...but soon...

-TPO.
  • #2,134
  • May 23, 2007 9:41am May 23, 2007 9:41am
How could we filter a situation like this?
Thanks!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vot.jpg Size: 50 KB
  • #2,135
  • May 23, 2007 10:15am May 23, 2007 10:15am
If there was a "SUPER FILTER" to eliminate losing trades.............I'd know about it and use it!

This is just one reason why it is soooooo important to faithfully 'trade every signal in your system'..............because the very next day there was a buy signal that resulted in a very nice trade.

PS.......trading the 4 hour chart on 15 May would have resulted in good intraday profit as well as avoiding the loss on the Daily chart!

Quoting aktaurus
How could we filter a situation like this?
Thanks!
  • #2,136
  • May 23, 2007 10:53am May 23, 2007 10:53am
Quoting BeachBum
If there was a "SUPER FILTER" to eliminate losing trades.............I'd know about it and use it!
Agree))

Quoting BeachBum
next day there was a buy signal that resulted in a very nice trade.
Next day up-signal was:
- not in down BB
- not beyond 50% of RSI
- not beyond 30% of RSI

How could we take it?
  • #2,137
  • Edited 2:19pm May 23, 2007 11:17am | Edited 2:19pm
Quoting aktaurus

Next day up-signal was:
- not in down BB
- not beyond 50% of RSI
- not beyond 30% of RSI

How could we take it?
There are many different variations of the Fozzy, but I think that we all agree on one simple thing - a Fozzy trade, in its purest and simplest form, is basically the cross of the RSI over the MA. Whenever the RSI crosses the MA, that is at least the beginning of a potential Fozzy trade. Fozzy himself introduced some ideas for filtering - Bollinger Bands. Others have introduced RSI % (willf), Vegas channels (BB), and numerous other filters. The criteria you highlight above are all just filters. The point is that NO filter will eliminate all the losing trades while allowing all the winning trades. The best thing you can do is decide on a filter, or series of filters, that fits your personal trading style. Once you've made the selection - STICK TO THEM. Trade all the signals that are confirmed by your filters. Don't start switching filters just because you are led into a bad trade. Don't start switching filters even if you are led into a series of bad trades.

Now that I've said this, I will tell you that there IS one superior filter that keeps out 95% of the losing trades and allows 95% of the winning trades. Unfortunately, the code for this filter was stolen by a magical leprachaun, who in turn sold it to Santa Claus. Santa and the Easter Bunny trade with this filter - this is how they pay for all those holiday gifts. Their forex broker is Chuck Norris.
  • #2,138
  • May 23, 2007 11:18am May 23, 2007 11:18am
aktaurus,

Personally here is how I viewed that trade, which did quite well for me. Im
not sure who is using the bands still, but I am not. I have found them for lack
of a better word, useless to my trading style. Especially with certain pairs,
such as the USD/CHF, they routinely range outside of the bands which
technically speaking should not occur often. Also, in this situation it pays to
have a lot of screen time with this system. Personally if I see a good buy
signal on the USD/CHF or GBP/USD I am going to take it, regardless of its
level. My experience watching these pairs is that they will give signals near
the RSI 70 level, and it will then run above the 70 level for quite a bit before
returning and usually yields a decent trade. Like I said, it may just be me or
my personal style of trading but I feel like once you get to 'know' a pair,
you will excel at it. Looking straight off the original rules, this wouldn't have
been a trade to take. If you had taken it, with personal experience and
discretion, you could have netted up to 100 pips with this trade.

bytebodger,
And I was going to complain about MY broker . . .
  • #2,139
  • May 23, 2007 11:39am May 23, 2007 11:39am
Quoting Bytebodger
Now that I've said this, I will tell you that there IS one superior filter that keeps out 95% of the losing trades and allows 95% of the winning trades. Unfortunately, the code for this filter was stolen by a magical leprachaun, who in turn sold it to Santa Claus. Santa and the Easter Bunny trade with this filter - this is how they pay for all those holiday gifts. Their forex broker is Chuck Norris.
You had me going there.....up until Chuck Norris
  • #2,140
  • May 23, 2007 11:52am May 23, 2007 11:52am


Very nice! The Foz seems to work well, and I do not like indicators much, so I am surprised that I like it.

I plan to take trades based on the RSI cross filtered by:

  1. The 50 line
  2. The 28 MA
  3. Solar Wind and eyeball indicator for trend
  4. bbSqueeze to keep me out of the flat markets (key!)
  5. Price Action, Price Pivots, trend lines and fibs are critical

I took a long signal last night on the USDGBP and it is up over 120 pips today. It bounced off of a 50% fib and a Price Pivot resistance line and the RSI crossed. No chance that this was going anywhere but up. What was nice is that I did not have to wait for today's PA bar to provide PA confirmation. Sweet.

The Foz is going through thorough demo for ultimate integration and fine tuning of my entry/exit strategy. I figure about three months of consistent profitability is what I will require of myself. Based on what I see here, this is a great tool - provided I can fit myself to it!

I'm pretty much done with all this ...
1 trader viewing now