4 Hour Strategy (MACD) | Page 232 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

4 hour strategy (the nausbot - 4 hour trader) 25 replies

4 Hour Strategy Macd+other Indicator 21 replies

X-1102 1 hour , 4 hour and daily Tf trades 7 replies

Create a verticle line at certain hour for every certain hour 16 replies

Is the "4 Hour Strategy (MACD)" the best system here at FF? 20 replies

Attachments: 4 Hour Strategy (MACD)
Exit Attachments

4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #4,621
  • May 22, 2007 12:40pm May 22, 2007 12:40pm
[quote=tamkras;1447864]
Quoting tamkras

Hi Mike,

Hope you stayed short eur/gbp as my target was hit today. Glad the setup worked out. Took a while though but it is what it is - trade plan. Good luck. Yours, Tamkras
Hi Tamkras,

Yes, the trade was closed at my TP price.
Bye and good Luck.

MIKE
  • #4,622
  • May 22, 2007 12:40pm May 22, 2007 12:40pm
Quoting spillsome
In the today daily wrapup (may 23), I don't understand the first trade that Phil is talking about. Was it a long or a short trade ?


thanks for your help
Phillip took Cable long to the 365.....
  • #4,623
  • May 22, 2007 12:43pm May 22, 2007 12:43pm
TamKras & Mike,

Nice Job on sticking to your plans! Talk about exhibiting Patience and Discipline!!! Wow!!!!!!!

Happy Trading!!!!

Pips
  • #4,624
  • Edited 2:05pm May 22, 2007 1:17pm | Edited 2:05pm
I was so disappointed with a false EUR/USD signal at May 14, 2007, so I decided to verify if the system still works on current market. I accepted only go-by-trend (bearish) signals and 8 of 9 were valid!

http://forexbarometer.com/pics/0704-...-h4-5,13,1.gif

Also I've found out that long fence of 4-6 MACD bars of the same color whose value difference is very small, is a sign of swing expiration and may serve as a false signal warning. Since then, if I didn't catch a price movement during next 8-12 hours, I close that position.
Ben
  • #4,625
  • May 22, 2007 1:28pm May 22, 2007 1:28pm
Quoting pips4uandme
TamKras & Mike,

Nice Job on sticking to your plans! Talk about exhibiting Patience and Discipline!!! Wow!!!!!!!

Happy Trading!!!!

Pips
I am seeing more and more cable longs across the pairs. Is there a shift in sentiment? Since this thread has attracked quite a good team of traders (quantity and quality wise) is not time to start tallying, measuring MACD Forum sentiment for euro, cable and dollar? Maybe, we can improve our trades even further?

Mike, well done! As I said you were 4 pips ahead of me and you still are. I need to catch up with you!

Pips, I see that you swissie short is going well. The pair is brought under .2300 level again - do I see a gaining persistence of shorts which include myself? And of course you know why I entered.. Good trading to everyone.
  • #4,626
  • May 22, 2007 1:32pm May 22, 2007 1:32pm
I have decided only to trade EURUSD and Cable, until I have more experience to follow several crosses and today I won only 6 pips.
I think for the rest of the day the price will stay around 1.3440/50 area, so for me the day just finished.
You can see the H1 Chart, I have tried to catch another drop to break the 1.3435 Support, and I used one of my trendline when was break and H1 MACD Signal, but it wasn't today the day for that break, after the close of 2 candle I close the order, because 2 times it's enough for me to see that the price will resist.
Then I've tried to Short at 1.3475 where is one trendline and F23, but didn't reach there.
H4 MACD gave one signal at 1.3449 but I didn't follow that signal, a little more than 15 pips was the gain, and it is according my rule, CT only 10 to 15 pips.

Next post it is for Cable.

MIKE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu4.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #4,627
  • May 22, 2007 2:00pm May 22, 2007 2:00pm
About Cable H4 MACD Today show to us no signal.
H1 gave one Signal but I didn't Follow at 1.9717 and this one was a very nice one almost 50 pips till the end, 89 at 1.9737.
I have tried to short at 1.9775, Trendline and 200 area, but didn't reach.
Tomorrow, maybe it is a very important day to Follow Cable, I will try to trade some rally or drop.
I will enter a big trade like 4 lots if the price reach my "Short Line".

Hi Pips, Good Luck to your trades.

Bye
MIKE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.jpg Size: 97 KB
  • #4,628
  • May 22, 2007 2:12pm May 22, 2007 2:12pm
Quoting spillsome
In the today daily wrapup (may 23), I don't understand the first trade that Phil is talking about. Was it a long or a short trade ?


thanks for your help
I took cable long last night20:00 my time with setting stoploss to BE very early(+12pips). Stoploss was hit with no loss. This morning 06:00 my time I took Cable long to first TP 21EMA and 2nd TP to 365EMA. MACD higher low with small candles.
  • #4,629
  • May 22, 2007 2:19pm May 22, 2007 2:19pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I took cable long last night20:00 my time with setting stoploss to BE very early(+12pips). Stoploss was hit with no loss. This morning 06:00 my time I took Cable long to first TP 21EMA and 2nd TP to 365EMA. MACD higher low with small candles.

thank you Phillip, I understand now. I am learning english and the forex, that is why sometimes I don't understand.

thanks again
  • #4,630
  • May 22, 2007 2:23pm May 22, 2007 2:23pm
Quoting spillsome
thank you Phillip, I understand now. I am learning english and the forex, that is why sometimes I don't understand.

thanks again
No problem. You are welcome.
  • #4,631
  • May 22, 2007 4:32pm May 22, 2007 4:32pm
[quote=tamkras;1447951]I am seeing more and more cable longs across the pairs. Is there a shift in sentiment?

Hi Tamkras and other forum members,
My guess is that you are thinking that the 89ma may prove to be a strong support area. My daily chart shows a bit of softening of the downtrend but I am a patient little flea and will bide my time. Certainly will watch to see if the 4 hour becomes more "long" friendly. I would expect other GBP crosses to follow suit as well. Only time will tell.
Attached Image
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #4,632
  • May 22, 2007 4:40pm May 22, 2007 4:40pm
The 21ma weekly is also within site. Trendline and Fib convergence as well. Could be significant.
Attached Image
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #4,633
  • May 22, 2007 6:13pm May 22, 2007 6:13pm
[quote=fxhermit;1448096]
Quoting tamkras
I am seeing more and more cable longs across the pairs. Is there a shift in sentiment?

Hi Tamkras and other forum members,
My guess is that you are thinking that the 89ma may prove to be a strong support area. My daily chart shows a bit of softening of the downtrend but I am a patient little flea and will bide my time. Certainly will watch to see if the 4 hour becomes more "long" friendly. I would expect other GBP crosses to follow suit as well. Only time will tell.
Thank you, fxhermit. Yes, in the past daily 89sma used to provide a good dynamic support for the pair. I traded then (went long) based on the setup and it was o.k. Since this a moving average on today's chart this MA has already departed from the day close mid-february - it is only good at a given time. But price and 89SMA are meeting again this week - I agree, a less aggressive (and good) trade would be to wait for macd signal. Great to hear from you!
  • #4,634
  • May 22, 2007 6:44pm May 22, 2007 6:44pm
Just reviewing a few things here...markets are sleeping, and I will be too before the eco news tomorrow...

Looking back, of course this is always easier to do after the fact, when the 4hr MACD looks like Britney Spears lately (pretty damn nasty) it never hurts to look at the longer timeframe. In this case the daily. The 4hr MACD is very erratic and trying to trade this wouldn't have been too cool (and as the rules go per these candles we wouldn't have been anyway) much less tying to figure out why. So I guess I'm trying to figure out why...I tend to let fundamentals be less than 1% of my trading decisions, I let the charts tell me what to do. Looking at the daily chart you can see that the candle tops and bottoms are S/R for a good week of trading; gotta clean the gutters or my room at some point I suppose. But might we have a hint of what is to come? The daily MACD (same settings as the 4hr unless I'm missing something) has a downward bias so that may be 'useable' information when the 4hr MACD starts looking pretty again...Like Jennifer Love Hewitt....

Just a few random thoughts...

Cheers
Attached Image
  • #4,635
  • May 22, 2007 9:37pm May 22, 2007 9:37pm
Hey Phillip i am priviliged to be able to post on a forum with such a dedicated person. I had all but abandoned trading 6 months ago on a series of losses, now i am back in the saddle as i have been paper trading this system about 2 months now with very good results.

A quick question how did u choose the 5,13,1 numbers for the macd. Did u eyeball it or did u use some other method of optimisation ?

Regards
  • #4,636
  • May 22, 2007 9:42pm May 22, 2007 9:42pm
I have learnt all important points of this system but I am still confused about risk/reward. Can anybody summarize rules of determining risk/reward and stoploss/target?

Thanks
  • #4,637
  • May 22, 2007 10:44pm May 22, 2007 10:44pm
[quote=tamkras;1448167]
Quoting fxhermit
I agree, a less aggressive (and good) trade would be to wait for macd signal. Great to hear from you!
Although I do trade aggressively in the short term, I also love to scale in when a currency pair re-establishes it's major trend after a secondary trend correction (the old Dow Theory of buying when the market gives value).

At trend resumption points (and pullbacks from there on) I generally take on lot sizes in multiples of three (that can be micros, minis or full lots depending on your account size). The idea is to scale out of two of those multiples at take profit points creating a free play of the remainder. This is ideally repeated at pullbacks as the trend leg continues. By the time the trend matures, I love nothing better than to be sitting pretty on a hand full of free plays each stop loss protected at various amounts of profit. It also does'nt hurt to collect the carry trade interest along the way. To me this is one way of applying Trading methodology as a wealth building tool. It takes a bit of patience to wait for the market to come to you in this way but the reward is more than worth the wait.

Meanwhile, one can hone one's skills by taking advantage of Phillip"s valuable and classic trading education because ultimately that is how you will learn to recognize those times in the market as the sweet spots that they are. The moving averages in combination with the MACD as a timing indicator will help you to catch those trend legs. Market rythm is a wonderfull thing once you learn to recognize it. Sorry to be long winded, but just wanted to outline one of my approaches to trading and to illustrate that patience, in this world of instant gratification, can be a profitable virtue in this game.

P.S Nice to see this thread so vibrant and positive.
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #4,638
  • May 22, 2007 10:51pm May 22, 2007 10:51pm
[quote=pips4uandme;1447696][quote=yorkyjohnny;1447681]
Quoting yorkyjohnny

GMT is NY +4

In Oct. w/end of Daylight Savings Time (it willl be different this year...usually sunday morning b4 halloween...not sure when the new end is that was implemented by congress starting this year), we go back 1 hour....then GMT conversion is NY +5 hours. Reason is b/c GMT doesn't have daylight savings, but some parts of world do.

Your candle closing time should adjust too...and the reports release from Europe change too. I like it better, winter trading, because everything happens 1 hour earlier.

In the grand scheme of things, time conversion doesn't matter....just figure out when the reports release in your time zone to keep them in mind while trading. Other than that, follow the signals on your platform. It doesn't matter when your candles close; they don't need to agree w/Phillip's in order for the system to work. You may have different trading opportunities, but they seem to even out over time.

Happy trading,
Pips
pips4uandme.....thanks for the explanation!
  • #4,639
  • May 23, 2007 12:42am May 23, 2007 12:42am
Phillip, can you please comment in detail why you didn't take yesterday's TC short signal on EUR/USD from 4:00 to 8:00? Was it marginal? I have taken this signal so I still need to learn. I closed my deal yesterday -8 when the MACD started to give buy signal, there was also a doji and reversed hammer which can be a sign of up move. Here is my analysis:
Good: With the trend, didn't go up to the 21MA bounced from 8MA which can be a sign of strong trend, with market motion, engulfing candle.
Bad: marginal signal, 161 Fib sup level ahead.
News: Redbook 15:45
Entry: 1.3446 Sl + 25 1.3475 between 8 and 21MA's TP + 29 1.3420 365MA
R:R=Ok
  • #4,640
  • Edited 1:30am May 23, 2007 12:44am | Edited 1:30am
Quoting tamkras
I am seeing more and more cable longs across the pairs. Is there a shift in sentiment? Since this thread has attracked quite a good team of traders (quantity and quality wise) is not time to start tallying, measuring MACD Forum sentiment for euro, cable and dollar? Maybe, we can improve our trades even further?

Mike, well done! As I said you were 4 pips ahead of me and you still are. I need to catch up with you!

Pips, I see that you swissie short is going well. The pair is brought under .2300 level again - do I see a gaining persistence of shorts which include myself? And of course you know why I entered.. Good trading to everyone.

Hi Tam,

I'm neutral for the short term trend. Price has been traveling down along bottom support on daily chart, but has closed back w/in a channel (downward). Long term, I'm bullish on cable, but I still think that we could see a retest of the 1.9500 ish level (price is still travelling in a longer term uptrend channel 1.9563 is a TL I've had for a long time on daily and 1.9518 is bottom of a channel (incidentally, it is a channel w/in a channel, w/the more conservative support at 1.9312). Personally, I like the 1.9550 support because of the proximity of two support lines. Summary, I think we see chop for a while but longterm, we revisit the 2.00 numbers.

Swissie has been a nice trade....I took it short at 1.2322 stop at 1.2342. Closed 3 lots this morning at 1.2282 for 40 pips. Have the last one riding w/stop at 1.2306 (may get hit, but protected a bit of profit). My guess is you have done the same, eh? . Other than that, I'm flat on other pairs...will have to see what the market shows us before I re-enter.

As always, I thank you for all your wise market analysis and trading illustrations! You have taught me so much....patience, discipline, courage and patterns!

Talk to you later,
Pips
22 traders viewing now