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  • #175,101
  • Jun 29, 2023 3:33am Jun 29, 2023 3:33am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} And then the buying at 1.0830 back to 1.12, or at least for a very good bounce.
Can we move to 1.1100 + until next Friday? Yes if, the bulls break and close above 0950 today or tomorrow. From lower (0830) it should take longer than a week first 1.1000.

I see week by week 1.1200 even 1.1300 are good and possible targets for EU
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  • #175,102
  • Jun 29, 2023 5:26am Jun 29, 2023 5:26am
Quoting kamikaze351
What i personally (want to) see on 1D/H4 is bearish diamond.
Here you got it

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  • #175,103
  • Jun 29, 2023 5:28am Jun 29, 2023 5:28am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
It may stuck near 0900 until the expiry later! https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fx-opt...edium=internal
Thanks for the share, but can you explain what is the correlation between these option expiries date with the market movement?
Thanks man
  • #175,104
  • Jun 29, 2023 5:33am Jun 29, 2023 5:33am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Can we move to 1.1100 + until next Friday? Yes if, the bulls break and close above 0950 today or tomorrow. From lower (0830) it should take longer than a week first 1.1000. I see week by week 1.1200 even 1.1300 are good and possible targets for EU
Hmm... anything above 1.1100 will be a very hard nut to crack. That shall not mean it's impossible... but at 1.1100+- comes a 38 year trend line that has been cracked last year and is in the process of getting re-tested from below. (first attempt was in April/May) The April/May has shown that ample supply is waiting between 1.1050 and 1.1100.

This setup is clearly long time bearish. With long time I mean around 1 year or a bit more. Anyhow, I accept that this is beyond any attention span here
  • #175,105
  • Jun 29, 2023 5:37am Jun 29, 2023 5:37am
Quoting candelion
{quote} Thanks for the share, but can you explain what is the correlation between these option expiries date with the market movement? Thanks man
There is no correlation just a possibility that at the expiry hour or near this hour at a distance of 50 pips or less the price should move to a big options level noted with above 500 million without that being always the result, the strategy also fails.

I use just the levels for my own analysis - Volatility, range & support and resistance.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #175,106
  • Edited 9:27pm Jun 29, 2023 5:39am | Edited 9:27pm
Daily and H4 are both forming HnS,


I'm expecting it to go up to 1.0940 - 1.0950, and going back to 1.0835 - 1.0800 area.
Set my Sell limit @ 1.0940 - 1.0950, with target 1.0835 - 1.0800, hopefully it play out.
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  • #175,107
  • Jun 29, 2023 5:40am Jun 29, 2023 5:40am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} Hmm... anything above 1.1100 will be a very hard nut to crack. That shall not mean it's impossible... but at 1.1100+- comes a 38 year trend line that has been cracked last year and is in the process of getting re-tested from below. (first attempt was in April/May) The April/May has shown that ample supply is waiting between 1.1050 and 1.1100. This setup is clearly long time bearish. With long time I mean around 1 year or a bit more. Anyhow, I accept that this is beyond any attention span here
Yes, the price can fluctuate many pips above or below a trendline until it decides what will do, I also wait for a drop some pips above 1.1100 but it may proved corrective in the end. Thanks for the heads up!
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  • #175,108
  • Jun 29, 2023 5:43am Jun 29, 2023 5:43am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} Hmm... anything above 1.1100 will be a very hard nut to crack. That shall not mean it's impossible... but at 1.1100+- comes a 38 year trend line that has been cracked last year and is in the process of getting re-tested from below. (first attempt was in April/May) The April/May has shown that ample supply is waiting between 1.1050 and 1.1100. This setup is clearly long time bearish. With long time I mean around 1 year or a bit more. Anyhow, I accept that this is beyond any attention span here
Man that trend line obviously older than me. EURUSD showing a strong resistance against USD for the last couple weeks, btw my bias is also bearish.
  • #175,109
  • Edited 6:32am Jun 29, 2023 5:48am | Edited 6:32am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} Bfly TP1 1.0907, TP2 1.0931.
That was TP2. Another push slightly higher still possible.
If we break 1.0931-36 next stop will be 1.0983.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #175,110
  • Jun 29, 2023 6:06am Jun 29, 2023 6:06am
Short 1.0927
When you see it, BET big.
  • #175,111
  • Jun 29, 2023 6:12am Jun 29, 2023 6:12am
Quoting candelion
{quote} Man that trend line obviously older than me. EURUSD showing a strong resistance against USD for the last couple weeks, btw my bias is also bearish.
Yeah, to see that trend-line normal MT4/5 platforms are not fit for. You have to go to tradingview or stockcharts. Luckily Justin Bennett has done that for us. Interestingly this trend line has worked a number of times nicely

The current drive up and positive EUR mood is due to ample USD liquidity since October last year, EU catching up with rates, avoided energy crisis in the EU and technical bounce back from the last year drive down. But it is on the last legs for my feelings. EU is clearly in recession (and the EUR is up? ) and it will not get better. So Christine has limited space for further hikes. The US on the other hand seems to benefit from the "return home from China" trend. That shall not mean that US will skip recession - no no. But together with the AI boom (btw... the EU is awfully behind in the AI development) the "return home from China" trend will lead probably to a de-coupling - something that should give the USD a strong boost.

The real whales and really deep pockets (large pension funds and money market fund based investing vehicles) go for and play on long term patterns because they need ample liquidity for their plays. And they let the algos run into this areas of interest (heavy supply or demand zones) again and again to load up on the trade until the trigger event shows up.
  • #175,112
  • Jun 29, 2023 6:30am Jun 29, 2023 6:30am
Dear fellow traders ! Almost my Thursday Selling time at last , let's have fun doing in this ranging heaven(selling the highs time !)!!!

Aggressive selling Dancing in the Growing Volatility Rain starts when Mr..Price manages to break a bull's low (15m), any level !

P.S Again ! :
Quoting mtako
{quote}... Sounds like a lot, but when passion is present, it is not at all. {quote} My pleasure mate ! Sell stop 09366 SL9
Quoting mtako
{quote}SL at BE, as volatility is too high, so if bulls take it soon, it will most probably get stopped out. If stopped out at BE, would reenter after >0947
Quoting mtako
Starting here, for me, we are in the heart of the 15m volatility storm. When selling the candle lows and buying the highs is, at last, worth it. No matter the losses, one direction usually prevails strongly enough to account for the them. Let's hang on {image}
Quoting mtako
{quote}{quote}SL at 0923, right above that 15m bull doji {quote}Very good sign when there are no losses yet after all this time = That's a lovely great storm, to tame ! {image}
Quoting mtako
{quote}{quote}{quote}{quote}SL now at 09177, right above you know what (why not closer to high of bull candle?, because there are no wicks , so no real 15m end!, so I wait for wick before trailing down SL above that, or get stopped out at 0923...) Storm might not be over for a while, so let's get ready for all potential consequence : {image}
Cheers all !

Sell limit 09366 Sell stop 09247 SL9
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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #175,113
  • Jun 29, 2023 6:38am Jun 29, 2023 6:38am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Yes, the price can fluctuate many pips above or below a trendline until it decides what will do, I also wait for a drop some pips above 1.1100 but it may proved corrective in the end. Thanks for the heads up!
Yes, it will be corrective. The macro signs are there. As in the post before mentioned - EU recession -> limited hikes but only bla bla bla. US possibly a "rotation recession" due to AI and "return home from China" -> Powell has to hike more.

When that is clear - EUR will turn south... possibly around 1.03+- or even parity. When then the US is getting hit by the lag effect later (end this year or spring next year) and the US assets turn south the rush into $$$ will kick the EUR into the butt -> down to 0.9 or below.

But I have the strong suspicion that... the USD might get strong similarly based on the effect as happen in 1999/2000. Because we are not at 0% interest level anymore heavy and secure Investors (i.e. Pension Funds) getting a alternative to the asset market -> Interest!!! When the FED funds rate gets to 6%+ heavy asset managers (we talk multiple billions here) get an interesting alternative -> why putting the money into the asset market and getting punched, better to buy $$$ (in form of bonds etc) and have a nice (sweat free) sleep. When the difference in rates between EUR and USD is larger than 2% (and in the absolute 6% level) a rush into the $$$ market from abroad might occur similar than in 1999/2000.
If this happens we will see DYX 120-125.
  • #175,114
  • Jun 29, 2023 6:48am Jun 29, 2023 6:48am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
D1 nicely formed a Head & Shoulders pattern as mentioned earlier... Today all I care is 1.0909 resistance level... Will it reject bulls for good? Let's see..
The flatness is getting worse ! I wouldn't be surprised if we get the exact same levels next week, again !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #175,115
  • Jun 29, 2023 6:49am Jun 29, 2023 6:49am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} Yes, it will be corrective. The macro signs are there. As in the post before mentioned - EU recession -> limited hikes but only bla bla bla. US possibly a "rotation recession" due to AI and "return home from China" -> Powell has to hike more. When that is clear - EUR will turn south... possibly around 1.03+- or even parity. When then the US is getting hit by the lag effect later (end this year or spring next year) and the US assets turn south the rush into $$$ will kick the EUR into the butt -> down to 0.9 or below. But I have the strong...
What if the fed cuts first, I see only one rate rise from two on the dot plot, but there is another one scenario that EU eventually will have growth problems and then the bearish scenario can play out. For the last fed has to keep rates as long as it can and ECB must cut first.

Anyway interesting info you are sharing what if these funds fail!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #175,116
  • Jun 29, 2023 6:56am Jun 29, 2023 6:56am
Quoting scalperdebes
Sell 1.0920 SL 1.0939 TP:1.0862
geez taken out! -20 pips
  • #175,117
  • Jun 29, 2023 6:58am Jun 29, 2023 6:58am
  • #175,118
  • Jun 29, 2023 7:02am Jun 29, 2023 7:02am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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LOL 0.0001 nano pips away from Bulls land
Bears still at work
  • #175,119
  • Jun 29, 2023 7:03am Jun 29, 2023 7:03am
Anticipating:
Quoting mtako
Dear fellow traders ! Almost my Thursday Selling time at last , let's have fun doing in this ranging heaven(selling the highs time !)!!! Aggressive selling Dancing in the Growing Volatility Rain starts when Mr..Price manages to break a bull's low (15m), any level ! P.S Again ! : {quote}{quote}{quote}{quote}{quote} Cheers all ! Sell limit 09366 Sell stop 09247 SL9 {image}
It's perhaps "bears getting busy" time a bit earlier than expected for me, at last folks!!! Sell stop 0935 09264 !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #175,120
  • Jun 29, 2023 7:03am Jun 29, 2023 7:03am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
EU dropped yesterday and is looking for a continuation at least to weekly low resistance is at the weekly pivot before 1.0950. Daily Volatility (range) - 47 pips Significant News - US Initial Jobless Claims & US GDP QoQ Final. {image}
EU very near the resistance level, a break can turn the tide but first there are news that will decide it.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
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