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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #4,601
  • May 21, 2007 7:43pm May 21, 2007 7:43pm
This is a priceless education being provided by Phillip. I've been doing my best to catch up. This makes so much sense. Trend recognition with the entry signal provided by the MACD. I don't know why I was looking elsewhere now. Thank you very much for all the effort. It is very much appreciated.
  • #4,602
  • May 21, 2007 7:43pm May 21, 2007 7:43pm
Hey pips! I stole about 15 more when price rebounded off the drop to the upside. Insert strawberry sound right about here ->: I was using your 1 hour crystal ball for this one. There's a counter trend trade trying to set up on the EURO$ but it looks a little weak. The opposite for the (your) Swissie and that looks a little stronger, 'should' pull the EURO$ up if it starts moving.

Someone please send some rain to Northwest Florida!!!
  • #4,603
  • Edited 7:57pm May 21, 2007 7:47pm | Edited 7:57pm
This is why I see this as stronger. Bearish divergence with the price and MACD....

EDIT:

Forget about that...the settings aren't the usual 12,26, and 9 thingamabobjig setting....

If you listen to me all the time you will be in big trouble at some point...
Attached Image
  • #4,604
  • May 21, 2007 7:56pm May 21, 2007 7:56pm
Quoting jland
Hi guys! Looks like a good start of the week for us today!

I would like to share with you a trading card I have made based on the 4Hr MACD System of Philip. Its sort of an Idiot Card for me. I pasted it on my monitor to keep me reminded of the basic rules I have to look for whenever a MACD gives a signal. Like Philip said, don't take all MACD signals right? But sometimes when emotions sets in, its hard not to forget those simple reminders. So I made this card to keep me reminded to check whether the MACD that has formed is based on the MACD Rules and is worth taking the risk.

Feel free to use it and paste it on your desktop too. Comments and suggestions would also be appreciated. Goodluck to us all and more Pips to come!
hi jland,

Nice job on your cheat card to remind you of market rhythm....

May I make a suggestion? I noticed that you wrote Price will ALWAYS tend to go back to 21....May I suggest you change Always to usually or just tend? In strongly trending markets, price may only retrace to the 8 or between the 8 and 21.

Also, S & R lines are high probability trade set ups as well as the 21. Don't know how convoluted you want the "cheat" sheet to be....

& this isn't for the "cheat" card....Everyone using the 1 hour confirmation technique is aware of the "rules" for early entry? and that the highest probability setups come when price is above the 89 for upmove or below for downmove and moving away from the hourly 89 MA? (that's my favorite set-up when all the MA's are close, price is just above/below and starts to move away)...Please encourage everyone to study entry technique w/1 hour conf. before using....so they don't actually "trade" off the 1 hour using 4 hour target points.

Thanks again for the nice contributions!

Pips
  • #4,605
  • Edited May 22, 2007 3:47am May 21, 2007 9:24pm | Edited May 22, 2007 3:47am
Quoting Palmer
Hey pips! I stole about 15 more when price rebounded off the drop to the upside. Insert strawberry sound right about here ->: I was using your 1 hour crystal ball for this one. There's a counter trend trade trying to set up on the EURO$ but it looks a little weak. The opposite for the (your) Swissie and that looks a little stronger, 'should' pull the EURO$ up if it starts moving.

Someone please send some rain to Northwest Florida!!!

I got the 15 pips on the flip side as well. Good Job Palmer.

Now for the "No Joke, Einstein" observation of the day. USD/Cad has some firm resistance at 1.0849 based on both the weekly and daily pivot point S1. Looking at going long through 8MA to 21.
I see a RB, Positive Divergence on 1 hr, pennant formation.
Any comments?

BTW, no rainmakers here in Tampa Bay either.

0845 GMT update -
No love on the long side. Got stopped out after poking through the 1.0849 line with 1.0822 as next support.
Next!
  • #4,606
  • Edited 5:02am May 22, 2007 4:37am | Edited 5:02am
[quote=pips4uandme;1447262]hi jland,

Nice job on your cheat card to remind you of market rhythm....

May I make a suggestion? I noticed that you wrote Price will ALWAYS tend to go back to 21....May I suggest you change Always to usually or just tend? In strongly trending markets, price may only retrace to the 8 or between the 8 and 21.

In the trading card itself I did write "Price tends to go back to 21 ema". But In the explanation I added the word "Always". But I've revised it and removed the word "Always". I am also aware that price may not trace to the 21ema and may just come to the 8ema. But what I included here is the basic rule only.

Also, S & R lines are high probability trade set ups as well as the 21. Don't know how convoluted you want the "cheat" sheet to be....

Actually, I only quoted the term High Probability Trade term from Phillip. When he said that TC that came off from the 21 ema are good entry signals. I just differentiated the Counter Trend Trade. In the Card it did say that reversal occuring at the Resistance or Suppport. Counter Trend Trade are also high probability trades once they occured on the Resistance or Support Lines. The reason why I differentiated the High Probability from Counter Trend Trade is because with the Counter Trend Trade I want to remind myself to be more cautious to enter the trade.

& this isn't for the "cheat" card....Everyone using the 1 hour confirmation technique is aware of the "rules" for early entry? and that the highest probability setups come when price is above the 89 for upmove or below for downmove and moving away from the hourly 89 MA? (that's my favorite set-up when all the MA's are close, price is just above/below and starts to move away)...Please encourage everyone to study entry technique w/1 hour conf. before using....so they don't actually "trade" off the 1 hour using 4 hour target points.

I guess you may be right here. I may sound that I am encouraging people to trade the 1Hr Chart. I have added a word of Caution in the end. Thanks for the reminder.

Like I stated in the Card "... this is not all there is to the MACD System of Phillip Nel. Please be guided and study the system well. There are lots of dynamics to learn.

But for me I see this as the very basic of all. That is what I feel that every beginner must grasp in order to trade the 4Hr MACD of Philip Nel. I don't want to include so many clutter as to minimize confusion. Later if one has established this by heart, he/she can go on into a more complex trading setup. Ofcourse like Phillip said "The Homework should have been done first" - (Identifying resistance/support lines, trend patterns, candle patterns).

Thanks Pips for the comments. Truly you are one of the people I admire most in this forum. You're always there to give a help to someone. Thanks! To Philip thanks in a Millionnnnnnnnnnnnnn!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 4 HR MACD Trading Card.pdf   16 KB | 1,623 downloads
  • #4,607
  • May 22, 2007 7:25am May 22, 2007 7:25am
Man, What day it's been so far. Just sitting here waiting for the signals and price action to line up so I can place a trade. I guess I am being taught patience today!!!!
  • #4,608
  • May 22, 2007 7:32am May 22, 2007 7:32am
[quote=Foricks;1446507][quote=madmax_uk;1446418]
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi MadMax....

LOL!!! (re: counting my pips.....)....I grew extra toes for that math problem...yikes...that's kinda yucky!! Pips good...extra toes....hmmmmm.... ....(yikes...did I stick my foot in my mouth again?....)

Hi Pips
I haven't had the need to grow the extra toes yet... as not making enough pips yet, but I will get there! lol

Hey Gang

Before we go any further proving Darwin right (the better traders will have 12 toes as a domnant trait), just a quick suggestion. The good folks at Forex Factory have a the calendar options (home page/calendar/calendar options/time and date options) which show your local time and the difference btw it and GMT (EST = GMT -5, for example). I also have a clock on my desk set to GMT as a handy reference.
Hi Foricks.....thank you for the information re calendar, I will take a look. Just a small detail, but at this time of year, EST = GMT -4 and I mention this in case your indicator is showing -5, which may need adjusting. Check it out at:- http://www.timeanddate.com/

johnny
  • #4,609
  • May 22, 2007 8:19am May 22, 2007 8:19am
[quote=yorkyjohnny;1447636][quote=Foricks;1446507]
Quoting madmax_uk

Hi Foricks.....thank you for the information re calendar, I will take a look. Just a small detail, but at this time of year, EST = GMT -4 and I mention this in case your indicator is showing -5, which may need adjusting. Check it out at:- http://www.timeanddate.com/

johnny
Foricks....sorry about this, but I am a little confused now, as there can only be one UTC/GMT time at any given time of year, it doesn't vary for different world timezones. However the FF calendar on this site is showing, as you state in your post, as EST = GMT -5, yet the timeanddate.com is showing EST = UTC/GMT -4 so which is correct?

johnny
  • #4,610
  • May 22, 2007 8:32am May 22, 2007 8:32am
[quote=yorkyjohnny;1447681][quote=yorkyjohnny;1447636]
Quoting Foricks

Foricks....sorry about this, but I am a little confused now, as there can only be one UTC/GMT time at any given time of year, it doesn't vary for different world timezones. However the FF calendar on this site is showing, as you state in your post, as EST = GMT -5, yet the timeanddate.com is showing EST = UTC/GMT -4 so which is correct?

johnny
GMT is NY +4

In Oct. w/end of Daylight Savings Time (it willl be different this year...usually sunday morning b4 halloween...not sure when the new end is that was implemented by congress starting this year), we go back 1 hour....then GMT conversion is NY +5 hours. Reason is b/c GMT doesn't have daylight savings, but some parts of world do.

Your candle closing time should adjust too...and the reports release from Europe change too. I like it better, winter trading, because everything happens 1 hour earlier.

In the grand scheme of things, time conversion doesn't matter....just figure out when the reports release in your time zone to keep them in mind while trading. Other than that, follow the signals on your platform. It doesn't matter when your candles close; they don't need to agree w/Phillip's in order for the system to work. You may have different trading opportunities, but they seem to even out over time.

Happy trading,
Pips
  • #4,611
  • May 22, 2007 8:35am May 22, 2007 8:35am
Looks like I see a setup for the MACD and the a pull back off the 21 ema coming on the G/U. Anyone else???
  • #4,612
  • May 22, 2007 8:38am May 22, 2007 8:38am
Hey Palmer,

You still short on Swissie?

Or did you get out w/dip below 1.2290?

I'm still short.....

This trade may take a while to pan out the way I'd like it too....but I think there is some good downside potential still.....

Bet you wish you went long Eur.....LOL (sort of)....

Happy Tuesday,
Pips
  • #4,613
  • Edited 8:45am May 22, 2007 8:44am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting RyanD
Looks like I see a setup for the MACD and the a pull back off the 21 ema coming on the G/U. Anyone else???
Hi Ryan,

I see the set up, but I'm not so sure about a short (just my personal opinion), unless the candle closes below 1.9741. Keep an eye on the hourly chart (currently price is sitting right above the 89 and macd giving long signal). Wait to see if price pulls away from the MA in short direction w/MACD conf on the hourly. This is just my opinion....Always follow your own signals/analysis.

As is I'm just not really confident in either a long or short position yet for G/U.

Pips
  • #4,614
  • May 22, 2007 8:44am May 22, 2007 8:44am
Just a few quick notes here. I'm really 'busy' today and can't get back to the forum until later.

For the chart:

The red vertical lines is where the chart starts to be bearish.
White E are trend continuation entries.
E (counter) are counter trend trades, conservative targets here.
Yellow E is a very quick trend continuation entry. I narrow this down to the 15min chart at times and keep the stop tight.
Blue E is where the 4hr candle closed above the 21ma. Look back at the 4hr charts and take note of the price action following the close of the candle above/below the 21ma.

I had over a 15% return on my account in the past few days. In my opinion, the trend continuation entries are the real money makers. The trend really is your friend. On a TC entry I usually move a stop loss just break even and exit the remaining contracts when I get a 'gut' feeling or there is money on the table that I want to keep. I hate giving anything back. During those multiple TC entries within the trend, those few contracts that are left at break even are closed again at a gut feeling or when money is on the table. I move those stops to the next TC contract that I leave open. My exits may differ a little from the said rules but the entries are as stated. I'm not boasting about anything here. I'm doing this to boost my confidence, and yours, trust this system. I may bend the rules here and there for my own 'taking' but the entry methodology is the same.

I have my laptop next on my nightstand and set audible alerts in MT4 when price reaches a certain area. It may be 2:45 in the morning but if there is an opportunity to bank something I'll wipe the dust off my eyes and do what I can.

Don't chase anything.
Don't guess the news. That's what Vegas is for.
Wait for the candle to close.
Moving averages, moving averages, moving averages.

I'm taking the rest of the 'day off' to do some work on my beloved 1978 Datsun 280Z. If there are any motorheads here you can take a lookee at http://www.project280z.com, that's my girl.

Back later....Trade Well.
Attached Image
  • #4,615
  • May 22, 2007 8:46am May 22, 2007 8:46am
Quoting RyanD
Looks like I see a setup for the MACD and the a pull back off the 21 ema coming on the G/U. Anyone else???
Yes i've been watching that too, but my candle closes in a little over 2 hours, so i will wait for a confirmation on the MACD signal for bounce off zero and TC. Good Luck
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TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #4,616
  • May 22, 2007 8:48am May 22, 2007 8:48am
What do you people think about EUR/USD? A confirmation of the support, and a fall of the price, or another pullback to the 21?
A good trade is when I Break Even. A great trade is when I Take Profit.
  • #4,617
  • May 22, 2007 11:00am May 22, 2007 11:00am
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 22May2007.zip   817 KB | 1,493 downloads
  • #4,618
  • May 22, 2007 11:31am May 22, 2007 11:31am
[quote=tamkras;1440646]
Quoting BoredToLoose

Hey, you are already 4 pips ahead of me ! Let's see how it turns out. I am taking the risk which is a dotted red line on the daily chart. You can see that the price recently broke out from the figure which is to me a variation of a diamond. Yes, we are very close to the descending trendline, therefore, if this one gets busted (i.e. bulls will win), the next barrier is the red line after which the upside potential is bigger. Just wanted to share some of my thoughts.
Hi Mike,

Hope you stayed short eur/gbp as my target was hit today. Glad the setup worked out. Took a while though but it is what it is - trade plan. Good luck. Yours, Tamkras
  • #4,619
  • May 22, 2007 11:53am May 22, 2007 11:53am
I took cable long till 21 ema +15 pips I tried to swissy short but last candle touced my SL.
I took short yen last night and failed TP for 2 pips.
Tomorrow is another day.
  • #4,620
  • May 22, 2007 12:26pm May 22, 2007 12:26pm
In the today daily wrapup (may 23), I don't understand the first trade that Phil is talking about. Was it a long or a short trade ?


thanks for your help
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