My quacks like a duck 50+ system!

You know the saying... If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, quacks like a duck then it probably is a duck!!!!

There's going to be no major chart analysis from me on this thread, mainly because the fundamental theory is very simple.....

So....
I've been spending so much time staring at the screens doing analysis, Fibs, trends MA's, etc etc etc... kind of getting somewhere and then realise I'm nowhere. I've always thad in the back of my mind what if I just stick a trade on with say £1 loss or £1 win and if I get most of them right, well I'm in profit, simple!!!! The problem always arises that in every 50/50 situation you can get a long run of losses, so of course it's not as simple as that, but if you have been looking at those charts for a while, you'll have some knowledge, and surely that knowledge will give you just enough edge to get mostly (more than 50%) winning trades.

So I have about 10 pairs that I look at, I trade in the morning (GMT), no particular time, I'll scan through those pairs switching between 5 min and 1 hour chart and just think which is the pair most likely to go in the direction I think it is, I put a trade on that will either win or lose the same amount and leave it. That's it, nothing else, and it has translated to about 30% profit in about a month and a half.

When you look at the charts, you’re basing your bias based off of what?

Just wanted to tell you Really your thread title is really eye catching Really Nice

That it will go in the direction I think it will!!!!

Honestly, just that, I know, seems stupidly simple, but when you dig a little deeper it makes a lot more sense, firstly, 1 trade a day, that's an absolute, it means that trade will have the minimal emotion attached to it, after one trade whether a winner or loser will affect your judgment, so stick to 1 trade a day, very important. Then you need to be looking at quite a few of the mainstream pairs otherwise you have too large a spread, so you are comparing say 10 pairs maybe, so rather than focusing on a certain pair thinking should I place a trade or not, you're picking 1 trade from a choice which is what you think is best, I think this in itself gives you an edge, and remember how much of an edge do you need, it's close to 50/50 if you can get that to 60/40 then you're going to make some decent profit in the long run. In the last month my longest losing run is 2 trades, the longest winning run 6. In terms of percentage over the longer term 6 weeks or so, it's my best ever.

Hope that helps.

Bushy..why are you here?...we cannot see through your eyes...you cannot help anyone with your trading style.... Stay home and trade and be happy...

i have to agree with this sorry man

Such a helpful comment

Insults

this is the simplest and smartest way to trade that i have seen on this forum i have been trading this way on a daily basis for a long time and it works very well thank you

I am inclined to agree with the basic premis. How often do we see people who have spent hours/days/weeks refining a mega "system" and/or designing an all singing and dancing overcomplicated EA around it only for it to fall flat and blow an account (of course we rarely hear of that happening, people just quietly vanish from their threads). ....along with all the accounts from people who can't be bothered doing any of their own work and blindly follow someone who kind of sounds like they know what they're talking about.

I haven't traded in anger for nearly 3 years, have been playing around on demo accounts trying all sorts of ideas and other people's systems and have yet to come across a system that's long term profitable enough to tempt me into risking a penny on it. This idea is about as good as any.

Don't think anyone is arguing that this won't work, it's just that it's not a trading system worth posting about on a public forum. There's no rules and it's completely subjective and biased. There's nothing to learn from.

I like to flip a coin in the casino too. We must be soulmates.

It's a case of just giving it a go for a few weeks, make sure you're not doing it randomly otherwise you will hit too long a string of losses, I've only been doing this properly for 6 weeks or so, and I've been quite amazed at how it comes together, it's like when you stare and analyse the charts endlessly you just get confused, I think this removes a lot of confusion, analysis paralysis, and trading psychology problems.

I actually find it a bit frustrating that I can't actually directly help, but the charts are pretty arbitrary so why have a load of arbitrary rules, you can so often look at two pairs that look very similar, say EJ and GJ, and from that point on go in different directions, kind of makes rules a bit pointless.

I first got involved in forex trading 18 years ago (in 2005). I haven't had much success in all those years - in demo or live accounts - and I've only made a handful of trades with real money. I did have brief success (only on demo accounts) with systems such as "The Cornflower System" and the "FREE EA Bumilangit 1-4% a day" EA trading system and a couple of other trading systems. But the problem I've found with all these manufactured trading systems is that they will eventually fail and have big and/or many losses. And that is because the market changes (at least from time to time) and it isn't always trending or always going sideways. Many - if not all - trading systems have set parameters and these systems tend to depend on the market trending or for the market to go sideways (depending on the system). And when the market changes and goes from trending to sideways - or vice versa - then that destroys the vast majority of systems. That is what I experienced with various systems and EA's that I have used. Except for a small number of live trades that I have made in the past, I have basically only made demo trades all these years since I first got into forex. For the most part, I had given up on trading (this is actually the first post I've made here at FF in the last 4 years). My pattern of trading for the last several years has been to trade some particular idea I would have about trading and, after failing from it, take off several months. Then I would get the "itch" to trade again and return to try some other idea, and that would also end in failure. And this pattern has repeated itself several times. Still, as I heard someone once say, "Once you get hooked on trading, you can never totally leave." I'm sure some people have been able to totally walk away from trading, but I keep coming back. LOL.

Bushy, as for the style of trading that you recommend, I actually like it. As you and snowdonred alluded to, all these systems that use a lot of indicators, colorful graphs going all over the chart and various lines going all over the place on the chart... well, that is just too confusing and overcomplicated! Your idea of simplicity is the best. I like the idea of scanning the various pairs each day to find the best trading opportunity and then enter a trade. I think the key is what you mentioned: a person needs to have (or to get) some knowledge & experience with trading, and that knowledge can give you at least some type of edge to help that person become profitable - without using some complicated system or a boatload of indicators. This is basically the way I've been trading for the past week or so (before I even knew your thread existed). I have been trading the 4 hr charts. I look for a trending pair, then I look to trade with the trend. I wait for a pullback to a support or resistance area and then I enter. Now, I will admit I use the 200 ema, 15 ema and 3 ema- each for their own specific purposes. For example, if I enter a buy trade and have a Take Profit of 30 pips, and the 200 ema happens to be close above and is less than 30 pips from entry, then I don't enter any trade. As for the 15 ema, I use that as a support and resistance area (it's especially good for trending trades). The 15 ema of course is not the only possible support and resistance area, but it is a key one for me. And as for the 3 ema, I use that for the point of entry. So when a candle retraces to an S & R area, I enter on the next candle that closes above the 3 ema (for a buy), or closes below the 3 ema (when I'm looking to sell). There are a couple of other natural chart occurrences (as opposed to indicators) that I learned from my experience with trading and I will make a trade when these occurrences happen.

Anyways, this is how I've been trading for the past week (only demo trading). I have made 4 trades and have had 4 wins (+40, +70, +60, +100 = +270 pips). I'm currently experimenting with different currencies and at the moment I am using a Take Profit of double my SL. As of now, I am using the ATR for my stop loss. For example: if the ATR is 30 then I will set my SL at 30, with a TP of 60. I will at some point probably try a TP of one & a half of my SL (if SL is 30 then the TP will be 45 in this scenario). Or I might even try a 1:1 ratio of (for example) 30 SL and 30 TP. It's all about experimenting for the best SL & TP. I could have entered more trades this week, but, due to my job and other things going on, I don't have a lot of time to trade. So whether or not I would've kept my winning streak going, I don't know. It's easy now to go back and look at any potential trades that I've missed, but it is too easy to say I definitely would have entered those trades if I were in front of my computer. So, I won't speculated whether I would have had more wins (or any losses) this past week. However, If I keep a high rate of wins happening (during the times I do manage to be in front of my computer), then I definitely will find a way to make more time to trade.

So, my point is that I am very generally trading the way Bushy is recommending. No, my chart is not totally free of indicators. But I only use 3 indicators (the 3 moving averages I mentioned above) and I only use them for those specific reasons I mentioned. I use whatever knowledge I have accumulated from my years of demo trading and I wait for a pull back to a S & R area, and I enter a trade as outlined above. As of now, I am not limiting myself to one trade a day (as Bushy suggested). If I see 2, 3, or more good trade opportunities, then I will enter all those trades. But I could see myself limiting my trading to just one trade per day ... if I feel I am overly trading in which it causes losses to happen due to me not picking the best trades.

Again, I've only been trading this way for a week. But I feel much more confident trading this way than I have with any of the touted "systems" I have tried over the years. Yes, I think simple is the way go -- as opposed to a complicated and confusing chart filled with crazy lines and graphs all over the place.

I made my last trade for this week on Friday (trade made June 16 ... it is now 1:45am Saturday morning June 17th here where I live, as I type this post). I had a buy trade on the usd/jpy, with the result being +100 pips. Five wins this week, zero losses = +370 pips. I will see how long my winning streak will go next week when I resume trading. It seems simple is the way to go and make decisions on what is obvious ... hence, "If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, quacks like a duck then it probably is a duck" as Bushy has famously stated. Add in some experience regarding the charts & market behavior and it increases the odds.

Edit: Sorry about accidentally putting in the wrong dates. I went back and corrected them.