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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #2,081
  • May 15, 2007 11:26am May 15, 2007 11:26am
Hi billser............

I'd like to suggest we post trades on this thread: FOZZY METHOD CROSSES and leave this thread for discussion of the method. Noobies often say this thread is too long to read.....we can keep it compact by not posting trades here. JMO!





Quoting billser
3 Trades

eur/jpy 17 pips
chf/jpy 4 pips
nzd/usd -11 pips

Closed out gbp/usd from 2 days ago +27 pips
  • #2,082
  • May 15, 2007 11:32am May 15, 2007 11:32am
Quoting BeachBum
Hi billser............

I'd like to suggest we post trades on this thread: FOZZY METHOD CROSSES and leave this thread for discussion of the method. Noobies often say this thread is too long to read.....we can keep it compact by not posting trades here. JMO!
OK
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #2,083
  • May 15, 2007 11:51am May 15, 2007 11:51am
Thanks...............but no need to apologize! (I'm going to move your 'trade' posts to that thread)

Quoting billser
OK
  • #2,084
  • May 17, 2007 3:29am May 17, 2007 3:29am
is to take trades only if fozzy candle body is 60% or more of fozzy candle range.

i did a back test on euraud, chosen at random, and this is what it is

for the year 31st march 06 to 31st march 07, net pips + 1141.


this is with the following rules

 

  1. all crosses taken without BB
  2. stop loss of previous day high/lo
  3. tp of 100
  4. one lot traded

with these results the number of good orders were 24, out of total orders of 40. a win ratio of 60%

for the same rules above, with the fozzy candle 60% filter thrown in, the net pips for the same 12 months were + 480.

the total trades were 12, good trades were 9 , a win ratio of 75%.

fewer pips, but more consistency.

i am not advocating this as a filter.. please make your own system and run with it.


for the

  • #2,085
  • May 17, 2007 8:19am May 17, 2007 8:19am
Hey cool..............please define this just a little more for us. Thanks!

Quoting coolshades
is to take trades only if fozzy candle body is 60% or more of fozzy candle range.
  • #2,086
  • May 17, 2007 11:36am May 17, 2007 11:36am
((fozzy candle open) -(fozzy candle close)) /( (fozzy candle high) - (fozzy candle low) ) * 100 => 60

fozzy candle being the candle where the rsi and ma actually cross. NOT the candle at which trade is taken.





Quoting BeachBum
Hey cool..............please define this just a little more for us. Thanks!
  • #2,087
  • May 17, 2007 1:25pm May 17, 2007 1:25pm
thanks for the explanation friend!

Quoting coolshades
((fozzy candle open) -(fozzy candle close)) /( (fozzy candle high) - (fozzy candle low) ) * 100 => 60

fozzy candle being the candle where the rsi and ma actually cross. NOT the candle at which trade is taken.
  • #2,088
  • May 17, 2007 4:02pm May 17, 2007 4:02pm
Greetings,
First of all I would like to thank Fozzy, BB, and all the others who have contributed to this thread and kept it alive. I have followed this system on and off since the first post but I did not really have much to contribute before now. I like this daily system because my time to trade is limited because of my day job. I, as I am sure others also, have had a hard time determining profit levels and how to make this system work for me. So, I have been compiling data for this year of different methods of exits to trade with. I have used slightly varied strategies for the different pairs. Due to the extreme contributions that others have made in this forum I feel it is only fair that I share my findings. I was planning on posting the results in this thread, but if there is a better thread to post them on then I am all ears. With the many sub-threads under the fozzy main thread I just want to clear up what is the best place to post these. I am not hear to sell signals or to guide this thread in a specific direction, I just want to post my honest experience with my fozzy trades this year in the hopes that it can help others, and can potentially lead to a better system for everyone to use. I will wait to post results until there is a better consensus on where this best belongs. Thanks to all.
  • #2,089
  • May 17, 2007 10:36pm May 17, 2007 10:36pm
Hello shatteredgently and welcome to Fozzy trading...........

Speaking for myself only; I welcome your posts and what you have to share.

Post it in this thread, or if you prefer, start a new thread in this sub-forum and post there. Serious Fozzy traders will follow along. I know I will!


Quoting shatteredgently
Greetings,
First of all I would like to thank Fozzy, BB, and all the others who have contributed to this thread and kept it alive. I have followed this system on and off since the first post but I did not really have much to contribute before now. I like this daily system because my time to trade is limited because of my day job. I, as I am sure others also, have had a hard time determining profit levels and how to make this system work for me. So, I have been compiling data for this year of different methods of exits to trade with. I have used slightly varied strategies for the different pairs. Due to the extreme contributions that others have made in this forum I feel it is only fair that I share my findings. I was planning on posting the results in this thread, but if there is a better thread to post them on then I am all ears. With the many sub-threads under the fozzy main thread I just want to clear up what is the best place to post these. I am not hear to sell signals or to guide this thread in a specific direction, I just want to post my honest experience with my fozzy trades this year in the hopes that it can help others, and can potentially lead to a better system for everyone to use. I will wait to post results until there is a better consensus on where this best belongs. Thanks to all.
  • #2,090
  • May 18, 2007 3:36pm May 18, 2007 3:36pm
Hi Fozzy,
How do you display RSI and Bolinger Bands superimposed on the bottom of the chart? I use SBFX MetaTrader 4 trading platform.

[FONT='Calibri','sans-serif']Thanks[/font]





Quoting fozzy
This is my first post on FF after months of reading and trying some of the numerous systems provided by members of this forum. Months ago I came across the following indicators that were posted on one of the Vegas threads. I cannot remember who posted it but I am extremely grateful for their insight and hope they do not mind if I show my way of using this indicator.

After months of testing and swapping from system to system I've come back to this indicator and in hindsight I should have stuck with it from the start as it seems to work for my style of trading.

Anyway, on with the detail. I only trade daily charts and only EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Why these? Primarily because these are the only ones I have backtested and have been trading for the last 3 months. I also tend not to trade Monday mornings (Australian time) as prices sometimes gap over the weekend. However, this is discretionary.

On each chart I have an 8 period RSI. I also have an 8 period MA of the RSI and Bollinger Bands with a 20 period setting, also on the RSI.

Long Entries: RSI must be below the middle Bollinger Band. Enter long on the open of the next bar after the MA has crossed above the RSI.
Short entries: RSI must be above the middle Bollinger Band. Enter when MA crosses below RSI.

Stop loss is the low/high of the previous bar. I move S/L to break even if the price moves greater than 40 pips in my direction. After the initial 40 pip move I use a trailing stop for exits (25 pips).

I only look at the charts once per day, just before 0.00 GMT. This way I know which pairs are approaching my set-up. I then place trades if my criteria has been met. That's it. A simple system that seems to work for me. Looking at charts all day does not suit me as I have a real job and I'm not in a convenient timezone. 10 minutes a day is all I need. This method provides a limited number of trades but the trades can last anywhere from 1 day to numerous days. There can also be days on end with no trades. I have found that the secret is have patience. I also have come to believe those who say longer timeframes are easier, especially for newbies.

I'm not going to say this system will always work but for me it has generated over 400 pips in September already. Please try this out on demos before putting your hard-earned into it. Just because it is working for me (at the moment) does not mean it will suit everyone.

Please feel free to comment.
  • #2,091
  • May 19, 2007 9:41am May 19, 2007 9:41am
Quoting stevecartwright
For anyone interested in pivots here's a script for Camarilla. They do seem to be very good at turning points. No promises do your own research please.
This was a old post from Steve on this thread. For some reason this indicator, even though shows up on my list of indicators, when I drag it to chart nothing happens.

Can someone help me or post a newer version of it, if available?

Thanks,
TradeStar
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #2,092
  • May 19, 2007 12:06pm May 19, 2007 12:06pm
Hi guys, been following what seems an excellent system for those with a full time job. Some clarification needed on when to enter on the daily chart. Currently GBP/USD daily looks like RSI might cross above MA for a long trade, however, would this be a valid trade as the current trend is to the downside. So in effect we would be trading against the trend.

Advice appreciated,

Thx
Dave
  • #2,093
  • May 19, 2007 12:57pm May 19, 2007 12:57pm
Quoting DaveB
Hi guys, been following what seems an excellent system for those with a full time job. Some clarification needed on when to enter on the daily chart. Currently GBP/USD daily looks like RSI might cross above MA for a long trade, however, would this be a valid trade as the current trend is to the downside. So in effect we would be trading against the trend.

Advice appreciated,

Thx
Dave
What settings are you using and who is your broker.....I use interbankfx which has sunday candles and my settings are the original Fozzy....The chart below doesn't look like it is about to cross.

Can you upload your chart!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fozzy gu.gif Size: 11 KB
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #2,094
  • May 19, 2007 4:04pm May 19, 2007 4:04pm
Thanks for your comment BB. I have decided I will post the results in here,
along with the explanation of how I trade the Daily Fozzy. First, let me say it
will take awhile for me to get all the pairs posted up here. I am a professional
firefighter in a large US city as well as a volunteer firefighter in a small rural
city, so my free time is somewhat limited. I will get up my results as quickly
as I can.

GBP/USD Results from 01/01/07 until current; 18 trades

Method 1- Trade closed at next Vegas Daily level
16 Wins, 1 Loss, 1 Break Even; 94% Win Ratio; Total: +684 PIPS

Method 2- Trade closed at 2nd nearest Vegas Daily level (i.e. level following method 1's)
8 Wins, 3 Losses, 7 Break Even; 83% Win Ratio; Total: +578 PIPS

Method 3- Trade closed at +40 PIPS
15 Wins, 2 Losses, 1 Break Even; 89% Win Ratio; Total: +468 PIPS

Method 4- Trade closed at +80 PIPS
9 Wins, 3 Losses, 6 Break Even; 83% Win Ratio; Total: +476 PIPS

Method 5- Trade closed at +120 PIPS
7 Wins, 3 Losses, 8 Break Even; 83% Win Ratio; Total: +597 PIPS

Method 6- Trade closed at 70% of 10 period ATR
9 Wins, 3 Losses, 6 Break Even; 83% Win Ratio; Total: +517 PIPS


Explanations: I use standard Fozzy Settings, with a Vegas Daily Tunnel set
specific to each currency. I use Alpari MT4 and I monitor the close of the
1400 bar- which happens to close at 8 AM my time. With discretion, I decide
whether to leave the trade open, move the S/L to break even, or close the
trade. If the trade has already hit a profit level, I will generally not move the
S/L for the GBP/USD. If the trade has gone bad and not already triggered a
stop, I will close the trade at market. If the trade has fluctuated between my
entry and one of the lower profit levels, I will move the trade to Break Even.
I count the Break Even trades as wins because with any discretion you can
turn a slight profit on the trade. I will not take a trade that is too close to
the midline unless I have good reasoning, nor will I take a trade which goes
against the fozzy rules. Such as a buy signal at a RSI near 70.

NOTE: This current month has been terrible for my style of trading, there
have been 3 trades, and most of the methods have ended up getting
stopped out for big losses. Here are the numbers at the end of April counting
15 trades, for those curious at how it performed until this month.

Method 1- +726 PIPS
Method 2- +730 PIPS
Method 3- +580 PIPS
Method 4- +628 PIPS
Method 5- +749 PIPS
Method 6- +669 PIPS
  • #2,095
  • May 19, 2007 4:07pm May 19, 2007 4:07pm
Hi billser, thanks for the quick reply, appologies, my settings were wrong. Just as a matter of curiosity, if it was the scenario that the trend was against us would we still enter on a rsi/ma cross?

Dave
  • #2,096
  • May 20, 2007 12:51am May 20, 2007 12:51am
Quoting shatteredgently
Thanks for your comment BB. I have decided I will post the results in here,
along with the explanation of how I trade the Daily Fozzy. First, let me say it
will take awhile for me to get all the pairs posted up here. I am a professional
firefighter in a large US city as well as a volunteer firefighter in a small rural
city, so my free time is somewhat limited. I will get up my results as quickly
as I can.

GBP/USD Results from 01/01/07 until current; 18 trades

Method 1- Trade closed at next Vegas Daily level
16 Wins, 1 Loss, 1 Break Even; 94% Win Ratio; Total: +684 PIPS

Method 2- Trade closed at 2nd nearest Vegas Daily level (i.e. level following method 1's)
8 Wins, 3 Losses, 7 Break Even; 83% Win Ratio; Total: +578 PIPS

Method 3- Trade closed at +40 PIPS
15 Wins, 2 Losses, 1 Break Even; 89% Win Ratio; Total: +468 PIPS

Method 4- Trade closed at +80 PIPS
9 Wins, 3 Losses, 6 Break Even; 83% Win Ratio; Total: +476 PIPS

Method 5- Trade closed at +120 PIPS
7 Wins, 3 Losses, 8 Break Even; 83% Win Ratio; Total: +597 PIPS

Method 6- Trade closed at 70% of 10 period ATR
9 Wins, 3 Losses, 6 Break Even; 83% Win Ratio; Total: +517 PIPS


Explanations: I use standard Fozzy Settings, with a Vegas Daily Tunnel set
specific to each currency. I use Alpari MT4 and I monitor the close of the
1400 bar- which happens to close at 8 AM my time. With discretion, I decide
whether to leave the trade open, move the S/L to break even, or close the
trade. If the trade has already hit a profit level, I will generally not move the
S/L for the GBP/USD. If the trade has gone bad and not already triggered a
stop, I will close the trade at market. If the trade has fluctuated between my
entry and one of the lower profit levels, I will move the trade to Break Even.
I count the Break Even trades as wins because with any discretion you can
turn a slight profit on the trade. I will not take a trade that is too close to
the midline unless I have good reasoning, nor will I take a trade which goes
against the fozzy rules. Such as a buy signal at a RSI near 70.

NOTE: This current month has been terrible for my style of trading, there
have been 3 trades, and most of the methods have ended up getting
stopped out for big losses. Here are the numbers at the end of April counting
15 trades, for those curious at how it performed until this month.

Method 1- +726 PIPS
Method 2- +730 PIPS
Method 3- +580 PIPS
Method 4- +628 PIPS
Method 5- +749 PIPS
Method 6- +669 PIPS
Hai shatteredgently,

That was amazing result from only 1 pair ....
just curious, do u only trade 1 pair or this is only 1 of u'r pairs that u post here ?

may i know, where i can find Vegas Daily level in your 1st Method ?

thank u very much, wish u the best ...
  • #2,097
  • May 20, 2007 7:51am May 20, 2007 7:51am
some of you guys seem to have setup reall y well can i ask though a couple of questions :

Billser : what have you found to be the differences between dz rsi and the normally overlayed indicator, also how do you filter out the ranging days ??

shattered gently : can you explain the different methods you posted and also could you tell how you use vegas daily most effectively ???

Beach bum :i know from your posts that you've had some success with the fozzy method , if theres anything you can add it woulsd be appreciated??

as you can tell i like to model success behaviour so if any of ou can add any positves /negatives it would be great!

just trying to play catch up with your help

thanks

Rye
  • #2,098
  • May 20, 2007 11:28am May 20, 2007 11:28am
Very nice work shatteredgently! I (we) appreciate your willingness to post!

Anyone who is serious about Fozzy trading should pay attention to what you have accomplished AND how. And the poor results this month should not discourage you or anyone else from using this method. There WILL be times when any method does not perform well. The important thing is to stick with a system through good times and bad. Please continue to share your work with us!

Quoting shatteredgently
Thanks for your comment BB. I have decided I will post the results in here,
along with the explanation of how I trade the Daily Fozzy. First, let me say it
will take awhile for me to get all the pairs posted up here. I am a professional
firefighter in a large US city as well as a volunteer firefighter in a small rural
city, so my free time is somewhat limited. I will get up my results as quickly
as I can.
  • #2,099
  • Edited 1:01pm May 20, 2007 12:19pm | Edited 1:01pm
MizZu_X7,
I trade multiple pairs. I posted the results for the GBP/USD first because I
have had the most success with it, and it is my favorite pair. I will post the
other pairs as I have time, which may take a week or more to get up on
here. Sorry, but I do not have much free time at all.
The Vegas indicator has been posted on forexfactory before and I believe in
this thread. However, I have attached the original Vegas Daily MT4 indicator.
For the GBP/USD I use default settings, with the Risk Model set at 1.


Ryecatcher,
You can find the way I have used the methods in the original post. I
described them exactly how I used them. Most are a set profit level, however
the others are based on their locations relevant to the next vegas daily level.
I have attached a screenshot to showcase. From what I have
gathered the basis is this: the pair will generally trade within a certain
channel. Within that channel, based on the properties of Fibonacci, certain
levels are created. I take profit at these certain levels. If I am mistaken
about the Vegas Daily explanation, then please someone feel free to correct
me.

Screenshot Explanation:
These are the indicators I use while trading fozzy. Notice the channel
created. The midline is a pair of Moving Averages, the other lines (I believe)
are fib lines created off of previous bars. Notice the red arrow on the chart.
This is a sell signal, notice that it opened near the midline- the green and
blue lines. The open was at 1.9576. The next Vegas level (red line) is at
1.9484. The following Vegas level is at 1.9429, I placed a horizontal yellow
line at the second target level. After the signal, the trade opened near the
midline (a vegas level), then preceeded to fall to the next 2 vegas levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #2,100
  • Edited 1:00pm May 20, 2007 12:26pm | Edited 1:00pm
shatteredgently.................I removed your 'screenshot' because it contained a promotional url link. You can upload again as a regular attachment if you want.

Quoting shatteredgently
Screenshot Explanation:
These are the indicators I use while trading fozzy. Notice the channel
created. The midline is a pair of Moving Averages, the other lines (I believe)
are fib lines created off of previous bars. Notice the red arrow on the chart.
This is a sell signal, notice that it opened near the midline- the green and
blue lines. The open was at 1.9576. The next Vegas level (red line) is at
1.9484. The following Vegas level is at 1.9429, I placed a horizontal yellow
line at the second target level. After the signal, the trade opened near the
midline (a vegas level), then preceeded to fall to the next 2 vegas levels.
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