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Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

  • Post #21
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:44pm May 30, 2023 9:23pm | Edited 9:44pm
Hey OT, I couldn't agree more with what you wrote.

Quoting Oliver.Twist
As soon as I read about using a "reference point", I immediately thought "oh boy, someone is going to mention CrucialPoint"... Well, it didn't take long. IMO, you're on the wrong path if you're trying to find some magic bullet with a reference point idea. Especially if that reference point is out of context, i.e. a rolling 1s, 1M, 5M, 15M... reference point. There is no point in doing statistical studies with such a general approach, there is zero edge here (Adam Grimes has done some work to that extent). I know you never mentioned trying to find...
I won't argue with you. All I'm looking for is a simplication. Wouldn't you have drawn the same conclusions just with these 4 reference lines? Why do you think looking at more data is better? Yes, I can see that only using 4 points would sometimes lead to the wrong conclusion. But in the same way one could argue that looking at too many data would make you aware of conflicting data which may distort your pov. Just my thoughts on the matter.

Reference lines on trends:
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Reference lines in ranges:
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Could you somehow agree with my arguments? Why shouldn't we then be able to find an agreement on when we would trade or when we wouldn't trade. How far needs the current price to be distant to the other 3 reference points to enter? What has to happen else to enter? Which orders of reference lines would we accept to take a trade? Should the three distances (current price vs. open at current day, open last day, open two days ago) differ for different reference line orders? How?

I would accept if you say that you don't see why not to trade this way. But then I'd kindly like to ask what is missing?
Quoting triphop
Hi Anticre, you will go crackers unless you start spending time separating things out. From what I can see, you're simply looking for an edge across MTF but you're wasting time in not understanding what it is you're specifically looking for or what's gone before you. Reference prices; CME traders for decades worked off pivots (OHLC) Tape reading: requires volume, is not the same as OHLC reference point. Honma <> standard rice traders either now or in 18th century.
Fair enough. The tape contained buy/sell volumes. Nevertheless, from what I read there were many traders back then that just noticed key price levels and didn't look at the volumes at all.

Quoting triphop
Quant modelling is its own discipline but if you're trying to brute force your way through to discovering how say Honma traded you're using the wrong tools.
Well, I'm even not sure whether I'd say Homma used OHLC as reference lines. I believe noone will be able to be 100 % sure how Homma traded. There has been not really some knowledge traced over the time from Homma.

Quoting triphop
All CP is saying within that post is that using the open rather than the range and time to determine the strength of the cross above or below open. It's the basis of simple and complex strategies world over, so it is useful but by itself confers no edge. If you're really trying to unravel anything, figure out what it is you're trying to unravel, and is what you're looking for public or private. The former is costly in psychological resilience to trade, the latter in your personal time. One way or another, we all pay our dues.
Ok, let's stick to this. I just referred to CP because he's only one of a few guys out there talking about this basic concept (he says it would be an edge, but if I haven't proven this, I won't know). (But tbh, my initial initative was more motivated by the posts of Neio.) But as you said, it is the basis. Now I want to grow on the very basic.

What do I want trying to unravel? How can one gain an edge from very basic information? Do I really need to draw trend lines or can I just use a few reference lines (either OHLC or time- (or even better tick-)based reference lines? I suppose it should be possible. If so, when/where should I enter, exit? How to find an edge? I guess the edge lies not just in the entry, but also in the exit. Maybe something like entering with the trend (as some of the other guys in this thread pointed out). But what about the exit? I think it should be not just driven by the floating profit and loss, but also by the market situation. But how can I identify some "good enough" PnL & market conditions that should trigger my entries and exits?

What do I want to unravel?
How to logically identify entries and exits through the unraveling price history, entries and exits that overcome the RR/win % conundrum?
Quoting AntiCre
Hey OT, I couldn't agree more with what you wrote. {quote} I won't argue with you. All I'm looking for is a simplication. Wouldn't you have drawn the same conclusions just with these 4 reference lines? Why do you think looking at more data is better? Yes, I can see that only using 4 points would sometimes lead to the wrong conclusion. But in the same way one could argue that looking at too many data would make you aware of conflicting data which may distort your pov. Just my thoughts on the matter. Reference lines on trends: {image} Reference lines...
" Why do you think looking at more data is better" I think there's a sweet spot to find, which is specific to the trader, as to how much data is needed. But in a general sense, yes of course more data is better. Or, more relevant data is better, and that is subjective. You just need to know the threshold where it becomes "information overload". Too much information =/= not knowing how to use data.

In your case, with the proposed idea of 4 price points, (now, M15, H1, H4) I would be clueless if someone presented me with different series of 4 prices, and define which ones would be interesting and which ones not. Then, you might argue, that you define the setup in the context of the overall chart, i.e. actually looking at the chart and not just basing yourself on 4 price points (plus current price). In which case, you're not just looking at 4 reference points are you, there's a whole other layer of information that you need to define.

What seems unnecessary difficult in this scenario, is to define exactly what is a setup, what are the rules of your entry and exit, just based on those 4 levels. If it's clear to you then fine, but if not why try to re-invent the wheel?

Plus, another unnecessary layer is that you need to have a specific tool / indicator, because it's going to be a pita to define those levels by hand, every time you look at the chart. Making a custom indicator to give you voluntarily less information doesn't seem appealing to me.

Quote
Why shouldn't we then be able to find an agreement on when we would trade or when we wouldn't trade. How far needs the current price to be distant to the other 3 reference points to enter? What has to happen else to enter? Which orders of reference lines would we accept to take a trade? Should the three distances (current price vs. open at current day, open last day, open two days ago) differ for different reference line orders? How?

That's the thing, I have no clue if you're asking me. And if the answers don't come relatively easy to you, then I don't think you're on the right path to "simply things".

Quote
I would accept if you say that you don't see why not to trade this way. But then I'd kindly like to ask what is missing?

Not saying it can't be done, just doesn't seem like the right path here. Especially when it makes you ask more questions then it does answering some.

I would just re-iterate my point, that whatever method one choses, I think market selection is key. If done correctly (not very difficult even for a 10yo), it removes a lot of the potential pain.
Today's chart #1:
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No clue what to do with that. I'm staying away.


Chart #2:
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Seems more like something that might give me more pips on my winners than it does on my losers. Information overload? 4 moving averages, I think not, but better than just 4 price points. You can also use your eyes to tell the difference between the 2 charts, it's just that I use them as part of a dashboard that give me a very quick metric for my whole market watch, which instruments seem interesting for the day / week. If the 200 day MA on EURUSD has been pointing down for the last 371 H1 bars, and the 100 MA has been pointing down for the past 417 bars, that's useful information.

Once you have selected the 2nd chart, and left the 1st chart alone, then it goes back to what I was saying in the previous post: It doesn't really matter what method you choose, you've already done 80% of the analysis work. Heck, you can even place you 4 price points if you want. Or a % retracement of the previous swing point. Or even a short-term moving average changing color (pointing down). Overall, it would be hard not to make money shorting that market.

IMO, you should target your efforts in choosing the right markets to trade, and when that is done, entry / exit rules shouldn't be too complicated to find.

In that scenario, the main focus would be to spot the moment where an instrument enters a favorable condition. (not too hard to define with a few metrics).
Here is the same EURUSD H1, just shifted to the left before the down trend.
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During that month, price action is much less clean. So, the skill becomes identifying when it goes from "unclean structure" to trending in a certain direction.
Not to discredit Oliver, who was kind enough to share his point of view, but I do not think this is even close to the real thing. I do not see any consistent way to build a business off the idea of picking a chart, once you see a trend is too late, even if you develop a skill to subconsciously (or objectively trough stats) recognise when a trend is likely to end/continue you still do not have a consistent business model and market can prove you wrong more times than not.

Picking charts does not solve the conundrum: you’re just spreading your entries trough various instruments, the same can be done with a single chart by waiting for when “it looks good”.

Anyway, I’m just stating the obvious and this exact conversation happened at least other 100 times on this forum. I wonder why every time someone start a thread of this kind the discussion always ends up on already-seen newbie concepts. Maybe answers are to be find elsewhere, maybe I’m dumb and can’t see the edge in picking charts based on how good they look. Who knows.
I’m just trying to see if this thread can go a little further, not that I expect something, in fact I’m convinced it will end up as all other threads. Hope Oliver don’t take it personal and maybe can point out fallacies in my post.

Nice to see you recovered Anti, keep up.
  • Post #25
  • Quote
  • Edited 7:47am Jun 1, 2023 7:17am | Edited 7:47am
Quoting apprendista
Not to discredit Oliver, who was kind enough to share his point of view, but I do not think this is even close to the real thing. I do not see any consistent way to build a business off the idea of picking a chart, once you see a trend is too late, even if you develop a skill to subconsciously (or objectively trough stats) recognise when a trend is likely to end/continue you still do not have a consistent business model and market can prove you wrong more times than not. Picking charts does not solve the conundrum: you’re just spreading your entries...
Now we're having a discussion. Thank you, apprendista, thank you Oliver!

@Oliver: If I see this correct, then you mainly rely on your MAs. Do you know that an EMA with a calculation period of X will show you on average the price X/2 periods ago. Thus, looking at the price a particular time ago is quite similar than looking at an EMA. The only difference is of course, that the MA is more smoothed. You then seem to use the 3 MAs to see the structure of the market and the slope-colored MA to see what's going on at a smaller scale ... Yes, MAs lag. However, every MA start to change its slope once price crossed over it, i.e. the position of price in relation to your last MA would give you a good proxy of the color of your MA. Therefore, I cannot see a big difference in your setups and looking only at 5 numbers (4 that correspond to the average lag of your MAs, plus the current price). With these 5 numbers you'd see everything as you'd see right now after masking (blacking out) the whole chart but the last bar:

@apprendista: Yes, there'll always be a lag in the detection of changes. However, if you don't like that lag, you could use shorter periods (either in your MA calculation or for your "time lookback". Just my 50 cents. But regardless you're using signals with small lags or big lags, I think the real deal is to adjust money management accordingly.

Maybe we should start here with a qualitative classification of P0, P15, P60 and P240. Will give more thoughts on this in my next post ...

BTW: I feel currently better, but haven't recovered at all, unfortunately ...
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} There has been not really some knowledge traced over the time from Homma. {quote} Ok, let's stick to this. I just referred to CP because he's only one of a few guys out there talking about this basic concept (he says it would be an edge, but if I haven't proven this, I won't know). (But tbh, my initial initative was more motivated by the posts of Neio.) But as you said, it is the basis. Now I want to grow on the very basic. What do I want trying to unravel? How can one gain an edge from very basic information? Do I really need to draw trend...
Honma? So they'd have you believe, sure.

Re CP, I don't personally trade off tick charts or generic OHLCs so I couldn't say - also I didn't say there wasn't an edge inside of what he's described, only that alone is simple trade logic that's a doddle to test and doesn't do much.

I hear what you're looking for and how you're trying to find it and just to know, you're trying to do the hardest thing first. Think it through, if rolling OHLCs are of signficance, you're basing your decisions off virtually every single price on the chart. I would start with stuff that works sometimes or requires context, then build on it. In your case if you're keen on OHLC - floor pivots - don't reinvent the wheel. And when you do it, calculate it on paper, master it, and automate it after you understand it. Then expand.

There's tons out there that work a bit - the bridge between a bit and a constant is hard yards but at least you'll start with something known and gradually piece things together from there.

Everything's been done and discovered before any of us got here but the more valuable it is, the more veiled/less info you'll get on it. Get terminology in line with everyone else so you know what others are doing - reference prices = predicted support and resistance. The boundaries of price.
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} @apprendista: Yes, there'll always be a lag in the detection of changes. However, if you don't like that lag, you could use shorter periods (either in your MA calculation or for your "time lookback". Just my 50 cents. But regardless you're using signals with small lags or big lags, I think the real deal is to adjust money management accordingly. Maybe we should start here with a qualitative classification of P0, P15, P60 and P240. Will give more thoughts on this in my next post ... BTW: I feel currently better, but haven't recovered at all,...
I don’t think lag is a problem, in fact I don’t think the whole presented narrative can be of any use. As you rightly said MA is very connected to watch a previous price on a rolling basis; it’s a tool. CP presented just a tool, you (we) are trying to “brute force” a way to find a purpose for the tool, truth is you first need to find purpose, then you’ll need a tool; hope make sense.

Am I convinced of what I’m saying? Mostly yes, as you know trying to find a use for the tool will lead you to test a huge amount of setups/ideas/variation which results will all ends up to “the conundrum”. Using statistics will make you frustrated but aware of that, not using statistics will make you go around in circles for years without realising what’s the problem.

Coincidently, everyone on here talk about tools/methods and all the good stuff that make us stuck on a never-ending loop, almost no one disclose on deeper topics, reminds me of forums where people share systems to beat casino games. Hence my previous post.

I’ll keep reading the thread without interrupting anymore. Have a good one Anti.
Quoting apprendista
Not to discredit Oliver, who was kind enough to share his point of view, but I do not think this is even close to the real thing. I do not see any consistent way to build a business off the idea of picking a chart, once you see a trend is too late, even if you develop a skill to subconsciously (or objectively trough stats) recognise when a trend is likely to end/continue you still do not have a consistent business model and market can prove you wrong more times than not. Picking charts does not solve the conundrum: you’re just spreading your entries...
Quote
I do not see any consistent way to build a business off the idea of picking a chart, once you see a trend is too late, even if you develop a skill to subconsciously (or objectively trough stats) recognise when a trend is likely to end/continue you still do not have a consistent business model and market can prove you wrong more times than not.

You are wrong in a few ways with this sentence alone. First, in the idea that you can't pick a chart that is trending. You make it sound like it's difficult or something. It comes more easily with years of chart time of course, but if done correctly, then no the markets won't prove you wrong more times then not. If you can't easily tell the difference when an instrument is trending cleanly, vs one that has unstructured price action, then that is your first problem to solve.
Second, one thing you miss to point out, is that when you have successfully identified a correct market to trade, then your probabilities of having outsizes returns are in your favor. If you limit your losses to be a certain amount, but the rest of your trades are BE, small win, or big win, well it's in those market conditions that you have a higher chance of having a big win (this is specific to each trader, it doesn't have to by something extraordinary, but anything like 3R-5R and above can tip the scale in your favor.

Quote
you’re just spreading your entries trough various instruments, the same can be done with a single chart by waiting for when “it looks good”
Just like the EURUSD chart that I posted above, where prior to the clean downtrend it was very choppy for a whole month. Yes, you can wait and do nothing for a whole month, and then trade again once the conditions are in your favor. What's your point with that? The reality is, when you learn to read price action, there is much less relevance to just stick to one chart. If you do your homework and learn about actual traders, that's very rarely the case.

Quote
I wonder why every time someone start a thread of this kind the discussion always ends up on already-seen newbie concepts
Don't get me wrong, but the way I see it, the real problem is the people who tend to react like you. Let me explain, this mindset is very relevant of where someone is in his trading journey. In this case, I would guess the very beginning. Why? Because, it seems you have strong opinions, but with little market knowledge. And what it also shows, is when someone goes from thread to thread, trying to find the "silver bullet", or that "secret edge" that no-one is talking about. Have you ever actually wondered, really wondered, why you just see certain "newbie concepts", and not some hidden gem?
It's because there are no "secret concepts". There are just a couple of sound approaches to the markets, each with its own set of rules and tools, and risk parameters. And whatever way you turn & twist it, there is nothing new because those concepts are as old as trading itself.

That's why I was saying in my first post, that at the end of the day it really doesn't matter if you use MAs, RSI, value areas, pivot points, or fib retracements. Those are just tools into how you analyze and act on the market. And they are only a sub-set of the overall picture (market selection, risk, execution, discipline.....).

Quote
Maybe answers are to be find elsewhere
Nope, that's what keep "hopers" hoping. Like, "I hope this next FF thread that I'm going to read is going to bring me the secrets of the markets". Newbies keep searching for a magic tool, as if it's the tool that's going to make the money for them. The tool is just a layer into a complex activity. It's just like someone that keeps asking the carpenter what kind of tool he uses, thinking that if he goes and buy that tool he's going to make that awesome wardrobe just that the carpenter does. I assure you, if that person goes out and practices making wardrobes, in 10 years he won't be asking in forums "what's the best tool to make pretty furniture?". He'll also realize, that depending on what he wants to build, there are probably some tools that are more suited than others.

And it's those threads or posts that pollute forums, because they give the false impression that there's a secret to be discovered. When everything has already been laid out. And little is discussed about the other difficult aspects of trading (scared to take a setup, missing opportunities, fomo, getting in late, bad execution, risk, indiscipline, greed, staying focused, keeping motivation in downswings.....) "No, when I finally find my magic tool with reference points (or insert any other tool), I will finally be above all that!"

Quote
everyone on here talk about tools/methods and all the good stuff that make us stuck on a never-ending loop, almost no one disclose on deeper topics,
Ironic, don't you think?
People need to stick to a tool or market approach, and then build a skill around it with market experience. Years of market experience. Then those people won't be asking questions like "what tool should I choose to trade", or saying that "no, you can't pick a market that is trending, it's too hard once you have identified it the trend is already over".

Also, it's important to distinguish between "I can't to it" with, "It can't be done". Very important distinction, even if it hurts the ego.
I would suggest doing a bit more research into real-world traders, for example CWT, or market wizard. If you follow people like Linda Raschke , or Peter Brandt, there are no "secrets" being discussed. Just basic tools, or chart patterns. And reading market structure.

I will leave with today's tweet from Lance Breitstein (SMB capital coach). But, no, there must be some other secret, right?
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  • Post #29
  • Quote
  • Edited 5:58am Jun 3, 2023 5:21am | Edited 5:58am
Thank you all for your contributions so far.

As previously announced, below I'm posting the imaginable qualitative combinations of 4 price points, P0, P15, P60, and P240. Simultaneously I'm running some stats to see whether some of these combinations yield higher potentials with at a 1:1 RR. Will keep you updated.

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However, in the meantime I'd be interested in which of these combinations you'd interpret more bullish or bearish. It become obvious from pure logic and previous discussions that either P0 > P15 > P60 > P240 or P0 < P15 < P60 < P240 should be the most bullish or most bearish signals. However, what about the other combinations? How would you logically tackle a quantification of these qualitative structures?

  1. Would you look at all 4 data points in combination?
  2. Or would you interpret it in pairs, e.g. P240 & P60 being a superior trend, P15 and P0 being a minor trend?
  3. Or would you look at P240, P60 and P15 in combination and use P0 just as entry/exit signal?
  4. Or entering only with P15 and exiting with P0?
  5. etc.

First question will be why not P241 or P65?
Better try London noon time, Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarter as reference in your case
And relation of previous candle range

London noon time and Daily will be best
Quoting Ihlas
First question will be why not P241 or P65?
Well, it's just the numbers I've used in my first posts. But I agree, you could use any numbers.

Quoting Ihlas
Better try London noon time, Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarter as reference in your case And relation of previous candle range London noon time and Daily will be best
Would you mind to explain? Why London noon? Yes, volatility will differ for different times and thus you'll have a better chance to make more profits (or to lose more) at London noon than trading Asian. But I guess the idea behind reference line trading ist not only to qualitatively look at the points, i.e. to bring it into a logical order, but to compare their differences?! Thus, I think using those thresholds should work in any sesssion. However, you maybe have to wait longer until a profit will be created. Why do you think that daily, weekly, etc. are better than any other arbitrary number?
Oliver.Twist you are spot on.
CP used to refer to his as 6D, and you only make money trading inside 2D, lost money trading 4D.

For anyone still struggling to figure this out: I would assume you know your personality and what setups/patterns you like to trade (continuation, reversals, etc).
- What candlestick pattern on Higher time frame (Daily timeframe worked for me), is usually present whenever you made money?
- What about support and resistance there as well?
etc.

When you figure this out, you will discover you will be sitting on the sideline more and waiting for the conditions to be right before you trade.
When this is sorted, your RR might be less than 1:1 and it won't bother you because you are right most times.

Selecting when/what to trade is an Edge in this business.
Quoting AntiCre
Thank you all for your contributions so far. As previously announced, below I'm posting the imaginable qualitative combinations of 4 price points, P0, P15, P60, and P240. Simultaneously I'm running some stats to see whether some of these combinations yield higher potentials with at a 1:1 RR. Will keep you updated. {image} However, in the meantime I'd be interested in which of these combinations you'd interpret more bullish or bearish. It become obvious from pure logic and previous discussions that either P0 > P15 > P60 > P240 or P0 < P15 < P60 <...
Hi AntiCre, if you read my history posts I referred to Open Lines. Open line refers to candle if you take into consideration OHLC.

I wrote clearly it's the close line that's important while the open line is nothing more than the reference line(price point).

Food for thought.

Can we tell where the close line might be in the future ?
Or, asked another way,
Under what circumstance that the close line is known ahead of time? Is this possible?

About your question of bullishness and bearishness,

Why is it some h4 or daily candles larger than average range?

Is there a reason like what you try to correlate, or none, it's just random occurrence?

Additional question that help,
Can a H1 candle be larger than a H4 candle?
(The answer is obvious isn't it. So)

Cheers
BW
Trade the value
  • Post #34
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:20am Jun 3, 2023 9:01am | Edited 9:20am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi AntiCre, if you read my history posts I referred to Open Lines. Open line refers to candle if you take into consideration OHLC. I wrote clearly it's the close line that's important while the open line is nothing more than the reference line(price point).
Absolutely. If you like to, my P0 would be the close, wouldn't it? So the idea in my head is to measure how strong the close deviated from multiple opens (i.e. in a H4, H1 and H15 candlestick.

Only looking at the current price won't help us, because we wouldn't be able to estimate/quantify the performance of an instrument. The same applies for only having a reference line that lies back in time. Only both togehter, current price AND reference line can be used to derive performance. However, the performance is always relative to the reference line. Thus, using multiple reference lines might give a more deep understanding of what's going on.

Quoting BWilliam
Food for thought. Can we tell where the close line might be in the future ? Or, asked another way, Under what circumstance that the close line is known ahead of time? Is this possible?
I'd say, not with certainty. However, if the close deviated strong enough from our reference lines, then the chance might be higher that price further expands in the same direction.

Quoting BWilliam
About your question of bullishness and bearishness, Why is it some h4 or daily candles larger than average range? Is there a reason like what you try to correlate, or none, it's just random occurrence? Cheers BW
But I think there are nuances. So maybe I should have better asked "How to know when to trade or when not to trade when comparing the current price to 2, 3, ... reference lines." Assume there are indeed some thresholds in the distances between the current price and the price a particular time or activity back. Then we could classify the distances P0 - P240, P0 - P60 and P0 - P15 as either up trend with support, up trend without support, down trend without support, down trend with support.

Now consider this scenario:
P0 - P240: up trend with support
P0 - P60: up trend with support
P0 - P15: up trend without support.

Wouldn't that imply that the trend decelerates? Are P0 - P240 and P0 - P60 in this scenario even relevant? Or would knowing that P0 - P15 is in an up trend without support of that uptrend be already enough.

Yes, I believe there's a reason why some candles are longer than their averages. However, I suspect that this is not an answer that can be given with certainty at the start of a new candle. I think we have to navigate through the candle evolution and get out a trade as soon our trend classification machine (e.g. P0 - P240, P0 - P60, P0 - P15) indicates that there's no longer a valid up trend.

Think I need to dig through your old posts. Thanks a lot for passing by!
The only solution is having predictive value. Or something simple fact that should work all the time. Anything else is BS.
EG should break Thursday H first and target is 0.86900.
That's all trading about.
Where have you gone pros?

Signal from Holy Grail: XAUSGD long, target is yesterday's H
We have AUD rate decision; GBPAUD long, target Friday H
Quoting Ihlas
We have AUD rate decision; GBPAUD long, target Friday H
well stated can't agree more, else only if there will be surprise hike then the other opposite direction will count.
I live in the future
Quoting Ihlas
We have AUD rate decision; GBPAUD long, target Friday H
One more add here

Discount
  • Post #40
  • Quote
  • Edited 8:03am Jun 6, 2023 3:56am | Edited 8:03am
Quoting Ihlas
Where have you gone pros?
A good question. And not just "Where have you gone pros?" but also "Where have you gone former FF members that liked to discuss and give opinions with open minds?". It looks like these times are maybe over?

It speaks volumes about the FF members that only a small portion of the responses were directly related to my questions, and it shows the inefficiency of forums.

But let me see whether I can provoke some more discussions.

As mentioned in my latest posts, I looked at three differences between the current price P0 as well as the prices 240, 60 and 15 minutes ago. Let's call these differences P240, P60 and P15. How could I test whether different readings have different potentials for the price?

It's hard to do this with the raw differences. Thus, I've classified the differences P240, P60 and P15 and checked in the data I've used (5 years EU M1 candles) how often a change of the P15 class reached 1, 2, ..., 10 pips long before it hits the same pip numbers short. Thus, I was able to calculate a mean over these 1's and 0's to obtain an estimate for the likelihood (probability or potential) for price going up (readings > 0.5) or down (readings < 0.5) after the P15 class changed.

It turned out that I had a too small sample size to get reliable number of occurences for most class combinations. However, for some combinations with high number of occurences, I got some interesting results:

Chaos theory in action: The further you project an expectation into the future (the more you aim), the less predictable your outcome will be:
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(Remember, a value on the y axis of 0.5 means that there's an indecision in whether price will go up or down X pips. The numbers on top x axis gives the sample sizes = number of occurences.)

The probability for price going up or down is mainly determined by a change in the P15 class. There are only nuances in differences in the likelihood curves given different P240 and P60 classes:
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