Possible pullback to 1.2400 possible.
Yen is not going to move - this is all about the dollar and the FOMC.
Took a small position - selling drying up
And mm looking for shorts
Lets see
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update: 30 pips up atm - price currently 1.2400 (ish)
Re-test into yesterdays VWAP
Equities are starting to look cheap - but will have to see how things go with US cash open
Poor PMIs, high UK inflation and FOMC minutes - will they ignore the UK data.
Maybe...lets see
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Aussie stuffed, vix up- not good, we have had a small double bottom and a buy off VAL on Cable
This is bullish
Credit spreads still +
Just thinking if equities get bullish - will they drag Cable along with it
Mad world of trading
Poor PMI and high inflation and long equities-
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Seems we could get a deal in by the weekend.
b shape after a long move as well.
Need to see what the rest of the market thinks though
But if all moves - long on Cable
One concern though is the yields in the gilt market. They have gone a bit nuts - I should have see this earlier.
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Got some pips off that move yesterday- and a decent move on GJ today.
ATM - yields are crap- although looking at the market through risk Cable is still a sell.
Market pulled back to VWAP - think that will have to do
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All eyes are going to on UK inflation data on Wednesday.
Until then volatility I would expect would likely to be muted/perhaps some more long covering.
Looking at SONIA - I can only see another 50 bp hike this year and the sovereign credit markets seem don't seem to show much scope- in the short term
The back of the curve seems to show some tempering on rate hike - but lets see
Over the last 3 months economists have consistently under estimated inflation- so perhaps they have over estimated this time?
Ultimately though I will be looking for further longs on Cable - just need a lower price
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All I am thinking atm is long Gold and short equities
a) BRICS new currency- being announced in August
b) Yen - currency intervention/inflation outlook - at the end of the month.
c) Low US inflation figures this week- core is finally moving south.
d) Big move south on NFP on Friday.
e) Massive steepener finally underway - what a sell on equities
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Looking at options pricing though on Friday - not that great
Puts more expensive on the Pound
10 yr spreads turned south on Friday
50/50 on Gold-1950 will get defended though
Also on the Friday close - price rallied- seems a bit bearish to me.
Current pic of GU
On Monday - there is meant to be a massive book balancing exercise going on - so Apple, Tesla etc... could come under pressure
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Cable off- nice divergent value - got some.
But yields!!!
Structurally - it looks as though it has further to go.
Huge risk though of Cable getting above 1.30
Think that this is going to be due to US CPI data-
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Held onto the position - at Fridays VWAP though
Perhaps they will wait for 2pm to day something
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UPDATE: Cable off- nice divergent value - got some. But yields!!! Structurally - it looks as though it has further to go. Huge risk though of Cable getting above 1.30 Think that this is going to be due to US CPI data- ________________________________________________________________________________________ Held onto the position - at Fridays VWAP though Perhaps they will wait for 2pm to day something {image} {image} {image}
Short GBPNZD- Structure and 10 year spreads - indicate a sell.
Macro - Dairy Index forecasting growth over the remainder of the year & UK inflation dropping faster than expected
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Some longer term trades that I am looking at. Short GBPNZD- Structure and 10 year spreads - indicate a sell. Macro - Dairy Index forecasting growth over the remainder of the year & UK inflation dropping faster than expected
Ignored
Nice start....120 pips!
UK PMIs - contracting speeding up
EU PMI- shocking
Lots of bits and bobs
Aussie CPI
FOMC
ECB
BOJ
Fed: 25 hike well priced in. There are certain factors that are supportive of higher interest rates - oil being one- but that is a supply side issue. Will that be enough though - I don't think so. Part of the problem is the break even price of oil in Saudi Arabia.
ECB- definite hike. If they had any sense they wouldn't.
BOJ- YCC- seems to have given this the thumbs down
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