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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #4,461
  • May 16, 2007 3:39pm May 16, 2007 3:39pm
Quoting jland
I cant help but to take notice of your dilemma regarding to trust the system. I had the same problem and like I posted here :--> http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4299
it its sometimes hard not to intervene. Today I slept and walk away after setting my trade. And was suprpise to see that I got my target profit (40 Pips on the euro/usd).
One thing I realize is that, when we open a trade and we set our stop loss ... we must be prepared to let it go. We must be prepared to loose... We always intervene if we see that the trade is not coming fast and much more going the opposite direction because we are afraid to loose... But often we miss the good trade later on.
This is just my insight. Hope this would help... Goodluck to us all!


In my opinion the important thing of a stop loss is that we have to put it at a point where we are certain that if price reaches that level, the setup that we were counting on is not valid anymore. That is why fixed s/l's do not work. If we have as a rule that all stops have to be, lets say 20 pips, we are bound to try to double guess, and our mind will play tricks on our confidence. A s/l has to be as close or as far away as the specific set up requires. If you have that in mind, then you don't have to be worried when, after opening the trade, the price moves against you and you then feel the impulse to close prematurely the trade. If you are losing money, but the s/l has not been hit, it means that the setup is still valid and you still might win. If the s/l is hit, it means that at that from that point on there are new circumstances and therefore you will have to reconsider your initial analysis.
So, the critical factor here is Money Management and Risk:Reward ratio. Make sure that you are prepared to lose whatever amount of money is in play if the stop is hit, and make sure that you will win more than you will lose, so your winners will make up for the losers and still leave you a profit. An lastly, make sure to have a great system like this one.
  • #4,462
  • Edited 5:21pm May 16, 2007 5:13pm | Edited 5:21pm
Hi. If i am reading my charts correctly I see a begining of a round bottom on the cable. Also support at EMA 365 1.9759. do u think it will be a good move to go long if RB is confirmed with the opening of next candle. Anyone???.Thankyou.
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TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #4,463
  • May 16, 2007 5:29pm May 16, 2007 5:29pm
I am trying to do a study that can be used for example now at EURUSD, and it is to use inside trendlines when you do not have other help like MA.
There are 3 "HighWays" 150 pips, 90 pips and 45 pips. 150="MORE RELAX", 90="Sleeping with one eye open" 45="WHAT A STRESS"
At this time only EMA365 are below the price, and I am going to use the next Trendline to go Long at 1.3474.
There is a high probability that the next 10 Hours price will go down, I will leave a BUY LIMIT order to try to buy at that price in case I am Sleeping.
You must use all Support and Resistances that you have and then use MACD signals to enter.
It is interesting that I never do what I am Thinking, as you can see I have open orders Long at ma200 1.3531 and F23 1.3510.
Why didn't I wait to see price touch next trendline? But the next one is "Sleeping with one eye open"

Bye Guys

Don't let your Donkey eat your PIPS.
MIKE
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  • #4,464
  • May 16, 2007 5:41pm May 16, 2007 5:41pm
Quoting BIL2205
Hi. If i am reading my charts correctly I see a begining of a round bottom on the cable. Also support at EMA 365 1.9759. do u think it will be a good move to go long if RB is confirmed with the opening of next candle. Anyone???.Thankyou.
looks like the 365 ma is a reasonable support line and for reversal. Also looks - very slight though - that candlesticks indicating a reversal (not sure the propper name of said candle). anyway, that is my view... if it breaks 365, whole new ball game! :-)
  • #4,465
  • May 16, 2007 7:01pm May 16, 2007 7:01pm
Quoting BIL2205
Hi. If i am reading my charts correctly I see a begining of a round bottom on the cable. Also support at EMA 365 1.9759. do u think it will be a good move to go long if RB is confirmed with the opening of next candle. Anyone???.Thankyou.
It's moving under zero.
I would wait a little more, but no important news GBP at corner next week till Wednesday that can be an advantage.
  • #4,466
  • May 16, 2007 7:04pm May 16, 2007 7:04pm
Quoting Doji Star
First target met!-at 21EMA ...then got stopped out by a doji on 2nd lot for gain of 25 pips!Lucky for me doji first hit 21EMA before my adjusted stop!Total pip gain 49 and 25=74.
Anyhow...win or lose...Owe it all to Philip and the great contributors on this thread!
PS :doji on the 1hr chart
Good job Doji!
I got out after the 21ema/32%Fib/S1 was hit. I am still backtesting the USDCAD, but it is downright creepy how this system lines up with so many other indicators.
Great day to be a 4H MacD trader.
Thanks Phillip!
  • #4,467
  • May 16, 2007 7:24pm May 16, 2007 7:24pm
Currently paying close attention to the following pairs:

usdjpy: big nice roundtop possibly forming within the next bar
eurjpy: possible trend continuation long forming bouncing off the 21ma
usdcad: possible trend continuation short forming bouncing off 21ma
gbpusd: possible small roundbottom forming off of the 365ma

CMON BABY
  • #4,468
  • May 16, 2007 7:50pm May 16, 2007 7:50pm
Quoting weghio
Currently paying close attention to the following pairs:

usdjpy: big nice roundtop possibly forming within the next bar
eurjpy: possible trend continuation long forming bouncing off the 21ma
usdcad: possible trend continuation short forming bouncing off 21ma
gbpusd: possible small roundbottom forming off of the 365ma

CMON BABY

I have limit orders for the E/J and the US/CAD.
GU and UJ will need more confirmation, in my opinion.
  • #4,469
  • Edited May 17, 2007 1:26am May 16, 2007 10:15pm | Edited May 17, 2007 1:26am
hello friends

I have modification of the MACD_Colored indicator... Its based on DEMA not EMA. DEMA is somewhat faster in reaction than EMA of the same period, even though it is a bit more nervous than simpleEMA. Still it correlates with the traditional MACD and might be useful after some practice.


I did not program the indicator, I just had some ideas and Iya did all the hard work. He rocks. We also used the MACD_Colored_104 , hope nobody is upset by that:-)

You can find everyting in this thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=29419
please go there and explore. There are some other DEMA based indicators.. Iya is a bright guy.

WARNING--- when you download the modifyed DEMA MACD rename the file to ver.105 -- so it will not collide with your old file. (Anyway the functionality of the ver104 is all kept intact, so no big problems should arise even if you dont do this)


Ill be happy if you try it and let me know what you think..

elmer
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  • #4,470
  • May 16, 2007 11:01pm May 16, 2007 11:01pm
I was as confuzzled as the next guy when usdchf earlier today shot up way above the 365ma and prior trendlines, but now that i've taken a second look it seems that it has hit a trendline i hadn't drawn before and is now forming a RT. I'm now leaning towards taking the short on this if and when macd confirms. Comments?
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  • #4,471
  • May 17, 2007 2:24am May 17, 2007 2:24am
Quoting weghio
I was as confuzzled as the next guy when usdchf earlier today shot up way above the 365ma and prior trendlines, but now that i've taken a second look it seems that it has hit a trendline i hadn't drawn before and is now forming a RT. I'm now leaning towards taking the short on this if and when macd confirms. Comments?
I think you're onto something with USDCHF.
Short at close of this candle. SL just above upper trendline.
1st target=365MA (green) RR might be iffy,though.
2nd target=200MA/89MA/lower trendline
3rd target=Reverse Head & Shoulders neckline (might eventually look for support there b4 continuing up).
Good luck. I might not trade this as I'm already in a trade up to my maximum margin.
  • #4,472
  • May 17, 2007 2:28am May 17, 2007 2:28am
Quoting weghio
I was as confuzzled as the next guy when usdchf earlier today shot up way above the 365ma and prior trendlines, but now that i've taken a second look it seems that it has hit a trendline i hadn't drawn before and is now forming a RT. I'm now leaning towards taking the short on this if and when macd confirms. Comments?
I think you're onto something with USDCHF.Never saw significance in that trendline 'til you pointed it out.My two cents:
Short at close of this candle. SL just above upper trendline.
1st target=365MA (green) RR might be iffy,though.
2nd target=200MA/89MA/lower trendline
3rd target=Reverse Head & Shoulders neckline (might eventually look for support there b4 continuing up).
Good luck. I might not trade this as I'm already in a trade up to my maximum margin.
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  • #4,473
  • May 17, 2007 5:12am May 17, 2007 5:12am
Quoting BoredToLoose
WOW, this EURUSD trade I have open since yesterday I close it when it touch sma200, I was almost close the order at 1.3560, but I feel that the down was too quickly and it is a symptom of new Carry trade, so I just leave it.
I think this Dip it is over, the last 4 hour candle to close about 1H from now, it is very similar to the one you can see in my chart.

I have open 2 new long trades, when it touch sma200 and other when reach F23 at 1.3510, but I am already sorrow..
I still have to learn to be cautious!!

Now there is uncertain if it goes dip to 1.3480 or can go to 1.3560 again.

My EURCHF trades from yesterday just "Kill me" . I lost that ones!
I just leave to trade JPY, but I think I have to trade only EURUSD and cable. A trader must focus all attention to few crosses to have more sucess, and the Phillip method it is very useful, but I think that EURUSD has their particular motion, and to a trader catch big dips or rallies must focus only at this cross.

GBPUSD when reach ema365 was a very good opportunity to buy, but I was focused at EURUSD.

bye
MIKE
"I have open 2 new long trades, when it touch sma200 and other when reach F23 at 1.3510, but I am already sorrow..
I still have to learn to be cautious!!"

HUM! Nice to see more pips in my pocket
@1.3510 TP1.3535 = 25 Pips I waited to see if reach 21, but when start to turn back down I close the order.
@1.3531 TP1.3535 = 4 Pips
29 pips, not bad for a "Sorrow" Decision.

BYE
MIKE
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  • #4,474
  • May 17, 2007 6:31am May 17, 2007 6:31am
Quoting elmer
hello friends

I have modification of the MACD_Colored indicator... Its based on DEMA not EMA. DEMA is somewhat faster in reaction than EMA of the same period, even though it is a bit more nervous than simpleEMA. Still it correlates with the traditional MACD and might be useful after some practice.


I did not program the indicator, I just had some ideas and Iya did all the hard work. He rocks. We also used the MACD_Colored_104 , hope nobody is upset by that:-)

You can find everyting in this thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=29419
please go there and explore. There are some other DEMA based indicators.. Iya is a bright guy.

WARNING--- when you download the modifyed DEMA MACD rename the file to ver.105 -- so it will not collide with your old file. (Anyway the functionality of the ver104 is all kept intact, so no big problems should arise even if you dont do this)


Ill be happy if you try it and let me know what you think..

elmer
Hi Elmer, your DEMA looks interesting, i tried to load it but the file name changes to "accumulation" when i try to load it in indicators. Any help wuold be appreciate. Thanks, O'Zeeke
  • #4,475
  • May 17, 2007 6:56am May 17, 2007 6:56am
I passed on this one. The R:R is not there and the ma's are all starting to converge...
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  • #4,476
  • May 17, 2007 7:18am May 17, 2007 7:18am
Quoting Palmer
I passed on this one. The R:R is not there and the ma's are all starting to converge...
I agree Palmer although its up against the 200, and upper channel so it may go short.,btw, what is the other MA next to your 21? Thanks
  • #4,477
  • May 17, 2007 7:22am May 17, 2007 7:22am
I have been looking at and testing forex systems for a couple of years now.
I have to say this is absolutely the best one I've seen as far as trade entrances. Its uncanny.

I don't like the exit rules. They're all over the place and they don't make sense to me.

That's just my opinion and I can't devise anything any better.
  • #4,478
  • May 17, 2007 7:45am May 17, 2007 7:45am
Ozeeke:

I forgot to mention that Bernanke is talking today as well so that kept me on the sidelines. There doesn't need to be and FOMC meeting to talk about interest rates...

The other line is a 15EMA. It's more of a head's up for me that price is approaching the good ol' 21EMA. One of Phillip's 'rules' is that price targets are not always exact. You should give your stops room for the market to flow so logic says that you profit targets need some +/- room as well. We've all seen it so many times, your profit target is missed by just one or two pips and the market reverses on you. This makes your targets more conservative. Whether the success rate is higher because the target is more conservative or not, can't answer that one. It's a 'get ready for something' for me
  • #4,479
  • May 17, 2007 8:57am May 17, 2007 8:57am
I just fell asleep and didn't take any trades last night. Woke up and there are some interesting developments. Would've been bittersweet I think.

usdjpy: RT never formed and keeps shooting up so no trade

usdchf: Wow! In my timeframe, a RT never formed. But! under someone else's timeframe it might have, because it shot WAY down all the way to 21ma before shooting way up again. Definitely a worthy trade and someone else could've taken profit.

eurjpy: TC long formed and i probably would've taken this one had i been alive. Not looking too good atm, although SL wouldn't have been hit yet.

usdcad: engulfing bearish candle indicating tc down. I would've taken this one and this one IS looking good.

gbpusd: RB formed off the 365. I probably would've taken this one and lost my ass. Given how it's been bouncing off 365 and 200ma for the past few days, any reason for not taking this one?

So, had I been awake, I would've lost on gbpusd, won on usdcad, and on the verge of losing on eurjpy. Interesting...look forward to Phillip's wrapup on this.
  • #4,480
  • May 17, 2007 9:15am May 17, 2007 9:15am
I set my alarm clock during the night to check on diff formations as posted by "weghio" . But according to phillips sytem we have to wait for the bar on MACD to close. so according to my chart for usd/chf if i had taken the arrow down bar as a RT signal. it would have been a wrong decision bec it shot up after that.
I am still on demo account until i have this system learned by heart. Did not do any trades last night since no clear direction. Please feel free to give ay comments. Thankyou.
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