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  • #172,301
  • May 17, 2023 4:13pm May 17, 2023 4:13pm
Good evening, hope you're well. For tomorrow, I have 1.0856 as resistance, and 1.0818 as support;
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  • #172,302
  • May 17, 2023 6:37pm May 17, 2023 6:37pm
My 1h chart for now, still
in downward channel.

daily we are close to upward trendline
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #172,303
  • May 17, 2023 6:57pm May 17, 2023 6:57pm
  • #172,304
  • May 17, 2023 8:23pm May 17, 2023 8:23pm
Quoting johncen
My 1h chart for now, still in downward channel. daily we are close to upward trendline{image}
update: above 0872 should bring 09xx
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #172,305
  • May 17, 2023 10:53pm May 17, 2023 10:53pm
Good day, EU is in a range, below 0820 it can continue its downward move, in the news US Initial Jobless Claims is the most volatile event to watch and the vol is 43 pips.

30 min
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Green pips!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #172,306
  • May 18, 2023 12:09am May 18, 2023 12:09am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} It's short and long term forecast, the second one is for after the June and when the fed will start cutting rates, better follow the short one with an eye on the second. It's also best to read their website from just pieces from bigger views.
I mean that the headlines are always seen in the news feed @ tv/online/newspapers, I mean not everybody does read the " full story " so people/small investors get the FUD " they " want.
Keep trading and learning or keep learning and trading!
  • #172,307
  • May 18, 2023 12:20am May 18, 2023 12:20am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Good day, EU is in a range, below 0820 it can continue its downward move, in the news US Initial Jobless Claims is the most volatile event to watch and the vol is 43 pips. 30 min {image} Green pips!
also EU bank holidays expect lower volume than usual until US session
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #172,308
  • May 18, 2023 12:45am May 18, 2023 12:45am
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  • #172,309
  • May 18, 2023 12:48am May 18, 2023 12:48am
For today this is how I see the market playing out.
The intention of bears is to take out the lows of last month which is at 1.07850. I think that will be accomplished today.
There's a reason why we didn't make a new monthly high because they want a bearish engulfing candle this month.
After taking out the low, we have one final obstacle at weekly first support which sits at 1.07805. We might get a minor bounce from there. Once it's broken, all roads leads to 1.07500.
All in all, sell the highs. See you at 1.07500
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #172,310
  • May 18, 2023 12:48am May 18, 2023 12:48am
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  • #172,311
  • May 18, 2023 12:52am May 18, 2023 12:52am
Quoting arthurbolbos
{quote} I mean that the headlines are always seen in the news feed @ tv/online/newspapers, I mean not everybody does read the " full story " so people/small investors get the FUD " they " want.
Agree on this!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #172,312
  • Edited 4:35am May 18, 2023 1:27am | Edited 4:35am
Quoting Austyno
For today this is how I see the market playing out. The intention of bears is to take out the lows of last month which is at 1.07850. I think that will be accomplished today. There's a reason why we didn't make a new monthly high because they want a bearish engulfing candle this month. After taking out the low, we have one final obstacle at weekly first support which sits at 1.07805. We might get a minor bounce from there. Once it's broken, all roads leads to 1.07500. All in all, sell the highs. See you at 1.07500
The reason for the move the last weeks is smart money positioning. Over March and April the US Treasury dept issued less and less papers (Bills & Bonds) due to the approaching debt ceiling. That drained less $$ from the money market... and hence the $$ excess (cheap) let all other currencies and front on the EUR rising.

Beginning of Mai the EUR was generally overbought... but everyone who understands how the bond market interacts with the currency market at the debt ceiling event (and believe me, the smart money does understand that well) know that after the settlement the Treasury dept has to issue massive papers - to fill their coffers and make good of the prior month holding back. That creates a sucking sound in the $$$ market and lets the $$$ go up.

That was always so at the major debt ceiling wrangles and it will be so again.

Hence, smart money started to sell last week because the following 2 month after ceiling raise the treasury dept will issue papers like hell. For that there will be no EUR 1.1100 anymore for a while.
  • #172,313
  • May 18, 2023 1:32am May 18, 2023 1:32am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Agree on this!
As explained above, and all the news trumpets confuse the retail trader's mind to make their bucks by leading them into the opposite direction.
  • #172,314
  • May 18, 2023 1:39am May 18, 2023 1:39am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} As explained above, and all the news trumpets confuse the retail trader's mind to make their bucks by leading them into the opposite direction.
So I bet EU bulls will wait for the next story to go long and if it rises above 0950 to 1.1000 it will be only a correction and an opportunity to go more short for now!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #172,315
  • May 18, 2023 1:45am May 18, 2023 1:45am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} So I bet EU bulls will wait for the next story to go long and if it rises above 0950 to 1.1000 it will be only a correction and an opportunity to go more short for now!
Yes, as for my analysis any raise in the near term is a more or less strong correction. ... and a chance to load up some sell.
I would advice some caution at the 1.0750 +- level. That is the 61.8% fibo level of the last up move.

61.8% fibo levels tend to provide strong bounces in technical markets... unless something major comes across that punches through.
  • #172,316
  • May 18, 2023 1:53am May 18, 2023 1:53am
Quoting andvk74
{image}
This is exactly the plan! It's good to have confluence of ideas. This was my chart last night:
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  • #172,317
  • May 18, 2023 1:57am May 18, 2023 1:57am
Good morning, hope you're great. The bears are trying on 5M, hopefully they can make it to the support level lol;
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  • #172,318
  • Edited 2:11am May 18, 2023 1:58am | Edited 2:11am
1.08-1.0793 remains the target and hardly price will pass without a solid bounce.
D1 50% (euro's favourite) and 1.618 extension also daily chart. We are in oversold area.
Price could dip as low as 1.0780 and that would still be fine, it's a daily chart move so stops can't be as tight.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #172,319
  • May 18, 2023 2:35am May 18, 2023 2:35am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} This is exactly the plan! It's good to have confluence of ideas. This was my chart last night: {image}
we are in the moment of truth, break or bounce
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #172,320
  • May 18, 2023 3:08am May 18, 2023 3:08am
Quoting pedro319
Selling pullbacks before 1.08. 1.0840 and 1.0853 short term resistances.
Closed shorts from 1.0840 and opened long at 1.0810.
Will add more if we go lower within the specified levels.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
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