EURUSD only

wtf, spread? What is that?

i think monday will be GAP up

i think it can't.

Good morning and happy weekend @ all,

sorry for my absence. Here are my levels for possible buy areas...
Best would be, when the yield spread does a break out of the triangle (lower indi).



Best
Chriss

I would never go on what XE quotes, at least after hours

EU closed down this week so we have to be cautious with the bullish trend, on the 4H chart it can still go lower but there are many support areas and technicals on the daily chart that I believe can turn the tide up again above 1.0909/1.09427.

In the news US Retail sales, US Industrial Production MoM, US Housing Starts Number and US Initial Jobless Claims will create the most volatility, I expect 105 pips range.

This sell off has to do more with risk off and the new month positioning except the US debt ceiling story every year the same.

Daily



Weekly


Have a great rest of the weekend

The day and the week ended right on the bottom. That does not look good for a bull run, rather for a continuation. Of course there are plenty of examples for turn arounds - but not under this kind of circumstances. So, the debt ceiling klabauke will hang on the market further.

As I mentioned somewhere else, I noticed that in the last 2 days the EUR was sold heavily starting in Frankfurt session. Hmm... means Europeans wanted to get rid of Euros?

Well, since Europe (and especially Germany) is now getting their energy (Gas) from the US it is possible that big commercial players preparing a $$ cushion for the case that things get awful. That could explain the selling waves. In the VSA thread someone noted the high volume of sell actions over the whole day... and I looked and saw particular during European session. That does not look that this will reverse so quickly. This are heavy money flows.... not the same like some weeks ago in March. Those drops where quick liquidity withdrawals by the sharks along with sell orders - which then triggered a sharp down wave in the price and run all the stops that were at reach. It looks that this time is different.

Anyhow, the DXY chart shows now a clear bounce from the base.

But with regards to the debt ceiling drama... it looks we get a 2011 version of this dilemma. Some veterans fear that this time it could be even more critical.
So, I went back the DXY chart to 2011 as you can see below. We had similar reaction.

1. The DXY came from a base
2. shoot up when the drama started
3. had some intermediate relieve - because of some apparent progress in the negotiation
4. But finally... when resolved it led to a DXY raise because the monetization of the new debt drained the $$$ (as I already mentioned)

Now, this time the background is a bit different. In 2011 the market just got out of the doldrums. Today we are near the top of the bubble (although some 15% off the top). So the overall market reaction could be stronger -> which would make capital fleeing into the $$$ even more than in 2011.

But anyhow... look at the DXY pattern between March and August 2011 and the pattern between February to Mai 2023 -> hee... quite similar

Now for the EUR next days and week.
If there is no relief in the drama - which I don't expect - the move down might continue. The momentum I see is too strong. The next target might be the cluster of important levels - top levels of mid March up-move 1.076xx and the 61.8% Fibonacci 1.0738x.

But looking at the daily chart an interesting channel appears to be in the making. That could take us over the course of the month even down to 1.058xx which is shy of the strong support zone from February and beginning of March.

And last... lately I am reading at the market propaganda channel over and over "...EUR stronger in the month ahead..." -> I say only, GASLIGHTNING

Again, for the reasons above I would be careful with BUY button. Hope that's enough food for the weekend.
Finger's crossed

I expect gap down open on Monday towards 1.0825. Up and down a few PiPs during Asia. New low around 1.082 on London open (panic, "OMG! The world is going to end!!" ), then up 50 PiPs. Rest of the week consolidation 1.08 - 1.09

may be and much turmoils possible and not unlikely . usdx may to play more up in a probable last leg up or a top ranging formation !! so nothing extra ordinary yet ! take care

have time to check eu to ready for market open , price at support now , trend higher tf bull , correction in strong hand right now . may easily target and break 0831 / 20 areas , say 0790 . limit higher tf 0940 but in smaller tf 0899 and 0878 where 0878 be enough signal for reversal attempt ! resistance up 0887 and 0933 probable .
so even it continue down , will target 0878. that is test may run at any lows now both ways with good sl though . take care

There was a news that Deutsche bank wanted to close its short dollar positions. That had an effect maybe.

Yeah, cycle end and risk off supported/triggered by debt ceiling. However, the drama this time is not the confirmation of the yearly "slice"... it is about a new absolute ceiling - like 2011. But, good enough for a solid retracement.

Good evening, hope you are well. For tomorrow, I have 1.0881 as resistance, and 1.0835 as support;

Will the second half of the year bring us another surprise resistance from the middle of a determining drop, similar to 2018 and 2021?
If so, we are right smack in the middle at this very moment!

Or , was the return into the greater range, after the very meaningful 0.95 reach, actually a big failure?
If so, perhaps even too big a failure for a resistance from the middle to form?

So many questions. Better ponder them with some honey and some good company .

With these late night deep throughts , and as I finish prepping up my week,
I want to take this rare opportunity to wish you the best week of your lives, filled with peace, joy, laughter,
BUT even more filled with loved ones, oh, and of course, some fulfilling trading adventure!

15m hidden divergence setup, first of the week, bingo ! Sell stop 08515 SL5TP185

with you on this one, let see if 0835 holds for bull.

1h

daily

1H BO attempt, Sell stop 08506 SL3TP300

Dancing time !

Sell stop 08529 SL3TP300

Have a good one folks!

As for me, I'm switching gears now, 8h mode !

Take good care mates !

EU should test 1.0800 but not if it rises above 1.0900. The volatility is 48 pips and only low vol news will be out.

15 min

Watching for 0864 signal for 0878 limit test. Before 64 and below 78 may do a leg down possible as in bear set up. Take care


so update : same as before resistance now 0874 before limit 0878 , if breaks then next resistance 0884 and 0892 before next target 0897 while next limit 0898 , breaks then target may be fixed for 0932 /34. lets see 0874/78 , will set be or close long for now over 0874 + though . take care