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ReadtheMarket - Supply and Demand with Price Action

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  • Post #7,781
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  • Apr 28, 2023 7:01pm Apr 28, 2023 7:01pm
  •  slowsteady
  • | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 106 Posts
hope this helps someone
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PA shows the way.
 
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  • Post #7,782
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  • Apr 29, 2023 12:22am Apr 29, 2023 12:22am
  •  fdx
  • Joined Jan 2017 | Status: Member | 256 Posts
Quoting slowsteady
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hope this helps someone {image}
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Definitely it does. Thank you!
 
 
  • Post #7,783
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  • Apr 29, 2023 1:22am Apr 29, 2023 1:22am
  •  slowsteady
  • | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 106 Posts
Quoting slowsteady
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hope this helps someone {image}
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EU Monthly. Same idea
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  • Post #7,784
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  • Apr 29, 2023 1:33am Apr 29, 2023 1:33am
  •  slowsteady
  • | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 106 Posts
Quoting slowsteady
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{quote} EU Monthly. Same idea {image}
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Furthermore
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  • Post #7,785
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  • Apr 29, 2023 1:33am Apr 29, 2023 1:33am
  •  fdx
  • Joined Jan 2017 | Status: Member | 256 Posts
Quoting slowsteady
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{quote} EU Monthly. Same idea {image}
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I would expect price to reach upper QM level and drop.
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But, if we consider the very high scale, price is coming up from a very good QM level, visible in 12 month chart. So price can go up and up breaking all these levels too.
 
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  • Post #7,786
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  • Apr 29, 2023 1:41am Apr 29, 2023 1:41am
  •  slowsteady
  • | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 106 Posts
Quoting fdx
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{quote} I would expect price to reach upper QM level and drop. {image} But, if we consider the very high scale, price is coming up from a very good QM level, visible in 12 month chart. So price can go up and up breaking all these levels too.
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Likely. I expect it to continue going up to atleast hit the last high on the Monthly. And I don't see an engulf down.
PA shows the way.
 
 
  • Post #7,787
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  • Apr 29, 2023 1:59am Apr 29, 2023 1:59am
  •  fdx
  • Joined Jan 2017 | Status: Member | 256 Posts
Quoting slowsteady
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{quote} Likely. I expect it to continue going up to atleast hit the last high on the Monthly. And I don't see an engulf down.
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Oh ok.. I thought you wanted to mark this as engulf.
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  • Post #7,788
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  • Apr 29, 2023 5:44am Apr 29, 2023 5:44am
  •  slowsteady
  • | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 106 Posts
Quoting fdx
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{quote} Oh ok.. I thought you wanted to mark this as engulf. {image}
Ignored
My view is that price hits its target there, faked out below the kink and now reversing. I don't see a lower kink that can serve as a target if that is an engulf.
PA shows the way.
 
 
  • Post #7,789
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  • Apr 29, 2023 7:24pm Apr 29, 2023 7:24pm
  •  slowsteady
  • | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 106 Posts
Still on EU
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  • Post #7,790
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  • Apr 30, 2023 8:35am Apr 30, 2023 8:35am
  •  TrAndy1
  • Joined Feb 2022 | Status: Hedge Fund Trader & $1.4m Prop | 1,242 Posts
Next week there is FOMC & ECB meeting and then on Friday NFP release too, so very high volatility and lots of fundamental moves, so any tight stops can get broken.
 
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  • Post #7,791
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  • May 1, 2023 6:20am May 1, 2023 6:20am
  •  TrAndy1
  • Joined Feb 2022 | Status: Hedge Fund Trader & $1.4m Prop | 1,242 Posts
I would suggest looking for shorts on GBPJPY and CHFJPY, because the Yen moved (too) much last Friday, if you consider having positions before the red news this week.
 
 
  • Post #7,792
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  • Edited 6:56am May 1, 2023 6:26am | Edited 6:56am
  •  TrAndy1
  • Joined Feb 2022 | Status: Hedge Fund Trader & $1.4m Prop | 1,242 Posts
GBPJPY already came off over 100 pips, so shorting CHFJPY now is more preferable (for me). So I would suggest from monthly chart and 1H chart that somewhere a minor low for 151.25 to 151.50 should be reached in the next days. The stop could be somewhere over the top of 153.40, but this is up to everyone. 6:1 RRR potential.
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  • Post #7,793
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  • Edited 11:13am May 1, 2023 10:46am | Edited 11:13am
  •  TrAndy1
  • Joined Feb 2022 | Status: Hedge Fund Trader & $1.4m Prop | 1,242 Posts
It took a bit longer than expected but I think CHFJPY is ready for a drop now. Last chances for a good short entry, if you want to consider positions early this week.
All the Yen pairs are overvalued short term now, my opinion. Even AUDJPY with strong momentum still, GBPJPY is also ready now. But for me CHFJPY is best, then GBPJPY second, then AUDJPY and maybe EURJPY too. So about ca. 1% to drop from here is my base profit target. Then I will take some profits here. I have only a small position here as it is bit risky before the important meeting this week. If anyone could make a full RTM detailed chart on CHFJPY and maybe other Yen symbols, thanks.
 
 
  • Post #7,794
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  • May 1, 2023 11:25am May 1, 2023 11:25am
  •  frwrd
  • | Joined Jul 2017 | Status: Member | 49 Posts
Quoting fdx
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{quote} Hi Amart83, Kink is anything which has the following shape. So what you marked is a kink and also FLs are also kinks. {image} One question though.. How do you know that the left FL you have marked is a FL? Price must hit a opposite FL in order for that kink to be a FL
Ignored
Hi fdx, I follow your posts and know you are familiar with rtm stuff.
Would you elaborate more on your question ("Price must hit a opposite FL in order for that kink to be a FL")?
If possible to draw on Amart83's chart, thank you.
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  • Post #7,795
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  • May 1, 2023 12:15pm May 1, 2023 12:15pm
  •  TrAndy1
  • Joined Feb 2022 | Status: Hedge Fund Trader & $1.4m Prop | 1,242 Posts
Quoting frwrd
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{quote} Hi fdx, I follow your posts and know you are familiar with rtm stuff. Would you elaborate more on your question ("Price must hit a opposite FL in order for that kink to be a FL")? If possible to draw on Amart83's chart, thank you. {image}
Ignored
It is as it is said in the text, it must be V shape that kink and flag is valid, a \ is not enough, it must be \ + / so V in total for a complete kink and other flags here.
 
 
  • Post #7,796
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  • May 1, 2023 3:08pm May 1, 2023 3:08pm
  •  frwrd
  • | Joined Jul 2017 | Status: Member | 49 Posts
Quoting TrAndy1
Disliked
{quote} It is as it is said in the text, it must be V shape that kink and flag is valid, a \ is not enough, it must be \ + / so V in total for a complete kink and other flags here.
Ignored
On the picture this kink broke a high and I thought it is considered a flag after that and it is drawn v shape too, as you said.
 
 
  • Post #7,797
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  • May 1, 2023 3:30pm May 1, 2023 3:30pm
  •  TrAndy1
  • Joined Feb 2022 | Status: Hedge Fund Trader & $1.4m Prop | 1,242 Posts
Quoting frwrd
Disliked
{quote} On the picture this kink broke a high and I thought it is considered a flag after that and it is drawn v shape too, as you said.
Ignored
Well you cannot say if kink broke former high by 1 pip or 2 points it is broken, so you need some room for market to have a breath. So I would not be too strict here.
 
 
  • Post #7,798
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  • May 1, 2023 10:54pm May 1, 2023 10:54pm
  •  ahdat
  • Joined Jan 2017 | Status: Member | 377 Posts
Quoting slowsteady
Disliked
hope this helps someone {image}
Ignored
nice and simple. you can also tighten up the entry a bit if you were feeling adventerous (although in this case you'll have to zoom in to make sure)

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RIP RTM - long live Nonsense Trading
 
 
  • Post #7,799
  • Quote
  • May 1, 2023 11:05pm May 1, 2023 11:05pm
  •  ahdat
  • Joined Jan 2017 | Status: Member | 377 Posts
Quoting fdx
Disliked
{quote} I would expect price to reach upper QM level and drop. {image} But, if we consider the very high scale, price is coming up from a very good QM level, visible in 12 month chart. So price can go up and up breaking all these levels too.
Ignored
i have something similar. although there is a level below that may very well work. The reaction from the bottom has been very strong, might only be good for a bounce. we'll see how it approaches
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RIP RTM - long live Nonsense Trading
 
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  • Post #7,800
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  • May 2, 2023 8:31am May 2, 2023 8:31am
  •  TrAndy1
  • Joined Feb 2022 | Status: Hedge Fund Trader & $1.4m Prop | 1,242 Posts
I am already up +2% this month. Started trading today for the hedge fund account and made a daytrade. Hope this month will be an excellent one for me. Let's see.
 
 
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