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GBP/USD simple breakout system

  • #21
  • May 13, 2007 1:14pm May 13, 2007 1:14pm
Quoting pino2
Hi Shutterbug,
I use the high and the low of the day, at the end of the US session, Midnight GMT

Yes I use Friday price, the high and the low of friday for example I used the high and the low of the last friday :
The High and the low of the day was High = 1.9842 and low = 1.9759
Buy entry order @ 1.9842 TP 1.9847
Sell entry order @ 1.9759 TP 1.9754

Best regards
just an opinion....
why don't we put the order like this

Buy entry order @ 1.9832 TP 1.9847 SL 1.9802
Sell entry order @ 1.9769 TP 1.9754 SL 1.9799
(we put the order 5 pips lower then the high and low of the previous day)

does this make any different ??
Every moment in the market is unique
  • #22
  • May 13, 2007 1:16pm May 13, 2007 1:16pm
does this method work on other pair ??
what about geppy ??
it has more volatility and can easily break previous day hi-lo

just my 2 cents
Every moment in the market is unique
  • #23
  • May 13, 2007 1:52pm May 13, 2007 1:52pm
Quoting andimozza
just an opinion....
why don't we put the order like this

Buy entry order @ 1.9832 TP 1.9847 SL 1.9802
Sell entry order @ 1.9769 TP 1.9754 SL 1.9799
(we put the order 5 pips lower then the high and low of the previous day)

does this make any different ??
I already tested it as you posted but it didn't work as good as of my system
  • #24
  • May 13, 2007 1:53pm May 13, 2007 1:53pm
Quoting andimozza
does this method work on other pair ??
what about geppy ??
it has more volatility and can easily break previous day hi-lo

just my 2 cents
Will test it on other pairs specially GBP/JPY, but as I mentioned before this is not the final setup of it, it still needs more development
  • #25
  • May 13, 2007 2:43pm May 13, 2007 2:43pm
hi pino, just wondering...do you pay a spread at all?
  • #26
  • May 13, 2007 2:56pm May 13, 2007 2:56pm
For TP 5
No. of win = 381 X 5 pips(TP) X 5 lots = $9525
No of loss = 26 x 30 pips(SL) X 5 lots = $3900
P/L = 9525 -3900 = $5625

For TP 10
No. of win = 366 X 10 pips(TP) X 5 lots = $18300
No. of loss = 41 X 30 pips(SL) X 5 lots = 6150
P/L = 18300-6150= $12150

Those results don't seem true at all. Where/how did get them?

By an EA?
By an Indicator?
By a visual analysis?

I have an EA that works that way and it enters exactly as stated by the system:

Buy if price breaks the last day's high;
Sell if the price breaks the last day's low;

It also has a parameter for you to place the spread you want to consider on placing orders.

It never has profits... I may be missing a key point, but, as the system works, it doesn't get profit.

Those results seem not to be gotten following the rules.
  • #27
  • May 13, 2007 3:47pm May 13, 2007 3:47pm
Quoting Scripes
For TP 5
No. of win = 381 X 5 pips(TP) X 5 lots = $9525
No of loss = 26 x 30 pips(SL) X 5 lots = $3900
P/L = 9525 -3900 = $5625

For TP 10
No. of win = 366 X 10 pips(TP) X 5 lots = $18300
No. of loss = 41 X 30 pips(SL) X 5 lots = 6150
P/L = 18300-6150= $12150

Those results don't seem true at all. Where/how did get them?

By an EA?
By an Indicator?
By a visual analysis?

I have an EA that works that way and it enters exactly as stated by the system:

Buy if price breaks the last day's high;
Sell if the price breaks the last day's low;

It also has a parameter for you to place the spread you want to consider on placing orders.

It never has profits... I may be missing a key point, but, as the system works, it doesn't get profit.

Those results seem not to be gotten following the rules.
Scripes,
Better than acting smart and accusing me that these results are not true, I mentioned here in a previous post that for anyone who wants to check for the results to bring a daily hystorycal data since september 2005 up todate, and you will find that they are 100% true.
But if you still don't believe so sorry this is your problem
If it is ok I can post a link for a site than brings a daily historycal data

So either you don't understand how my system works, or you just want to accuse others and that's it
  • #28
  • May 13, 2007 3:52pm May 13, 2007 3:52pm
Hi dunningduke
Sure I pay spreads
  • #29
  • May 13, 2007 3:56pm May 13, 2007 3:56pm
Pino

Which broker did you use for your backtest?
Is this a set and forget system?
Are unfilled order canceled at the end of the day?

Thanks
  • #30
  • May 13, 2007 4:08pm May 13, 2007 4:08pm
Hi aelimian,
I use FXCM
It's not a set and forget system
Unfilled orders are cancelled at the end of each day
  • #31
  • May 13, 2007 4:39pm May 13, 2007 4:39pm
This system as I mentioned is still under development, what I need to develop is the TP and the SL, and specially the SL
But on the otherside although this is not the final setup of it but it is a profitable system

These are some statistics regarding my system

Maximum loss in every month didn't exceed 2 losses

Avg loss per month = 1 loss

There are months which don't have any loss, for eg April 2007, all executed orders made profit, no loss

Rarely both orders are unfilled, this may happen in holidays or if there is a big report next day like NFP

Rarely both orders are filled, this may happen when the difference between the high and the low of the previous day is too small for eg only 50 pips, but it is not a must coz sometimes the difference was 50 in the previous day, and next day only one order was executed with TP, and the other is not executed.

It's not a must that when an order is executed to bring it's TP everyday, it's like 90%+ when orders are executed to bring profit

Rarely when one order is executed to move against me more than 50 pips and then reverse back to bring profit

I'm trying to post here all the things I faced during my testing, so in order that if someone could help developing this system to be less risky and more profitable

As I said in my first post that it is risky and I don't use any indicators, and it's not a technical system, and I said that many won't like this system although IMO and from the results it is profitable
  • #32
  • May 13, 2007 7:42pm May 13, 2007 7:42pm
I was thinking about testing out the system a bit, but I had a question about spreads first. When you're setting your TP and SL, does the TP/SL include the spread?

For example, on my broker, GBP/USD has a 4 pip spread. If I set my TP for 10, then it'll subtract 4 from that and I'll only get 6 pips for myself. Should I really be setting my TP for 14 then? Just curious how you did this when you tested.
I came, I saw, I conquered [your pips]. -- Julius Caesar
  • #33
  • May 13, 2007 8:04pm May 13, 2007 8:04pm
Hi Quick,
The answer to your question is as follows, I'll use a simple example
For eg. the high of the previous day for GBP/USD was 1.9950 and the low was 1.9850
So your orders will be as follows
Buy entry order (not market order) @ 1.9950 TP 1.9955 so if your broker has a 4 pip spreads for GBP so when the bid price reaches 1.9946 the order will be executed and then when the bid price reaches 1.9950 so you are now B.E. and when the bid price reaches 1.9955 this means that the order will be closed with TP 5 pips, so you have seen that the 4 pips spreads were paid and the 5 pips profit were reached

On the otherside
Sell entry order (not market order) @ 1.9850 TP 1.9845 so if your broker has a 4 pip spreads for GBP so when the ask price reaches 1.9854 the order will be executed and then when the ask price reaches 1.9850 so you are now B.E. and when the ask price reaches 1.9945 this means that the order will be closed with TP 5 pips, so you have seen that the 4 pips spreads were paid and the 5 pips profit were reached

I wish that this point is clear now
  • #34
  • May 13, 2007 8:43pm May 13, 2007 8:43pm
Here are my tests... my EA runs like the in the system, I guess...

Please tell me if I am missing anything...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35
  • May 13, 2007 9:00pm May 13, 2007 9:00pm
Quoting pino2
Hi dunningduke
Sure I pay spreads

I think what he meant by "paying the spreads" is if it is included in your calculations for the wins you posted.

Very simple and interesting idea!
  • #36
  • May 14, 2007 12:11am May 14, 2007 12:11am
Quoting Scripes
Here are my tests... my EA runs like the in the system, I guess...

Please tell me if I am missing anything...
Yes for the second time, if you don't understand this system, don't make this kind of effort to atack it and prove your wrong thoughts, if you have something usefull for the system to help in developing it, you are welcome, if not, I have nothing for you here.
  • #37
  • May 14, 2007 12:15am May 14, 2007 12:15am
Hi Pinggarcia,
Spreads are not included in the TP, I've explained it here above

Best regards
  • #38
  • May 14, 2007 12:43am May 14, 2007 12:43am
thanks for sharing for the system,

I have question :
1. How to determine high and low for yesterday ? is there any indicator for it ?
2. Have you tested in other pair ?


thanks
  • #39
  • May 14, 2007 1:38am May 14, 2007 1:38am
Hi pino2

I have done some backtesting and noticed that we had 3 stops hit in Oct 06 for -30 each,which only gave us a 5 pip profit for the month. Do you have the same result?

Please see attached and comment if i understand the system so far.

Eben
Attached Image
  • #40
  • May 14, 2007 2:15am May 14, 2007 2:15am
Quoting pino2
Hi Pinggarcia,
Spreads are not included in the TP, I've explained it here above

Best regards
hi pino, thanks for your efforts to help us with this system.
my question is regarding spreads and your breakout strategy.

i get 1 pip spread for gbp/usd using crown forex, so i believe straight away that your profits are increased by 60% by just switching your broker.

secondly my opinion for stop loss and take profit would be to test using 10 pips stop and 10 pips take profit, meaning price would actually have to move 11 pips from entry to hit target(accounting for 1 pip spread).

lastly, i would set a buy order 3 pips past high for the previous day(so it accounts for the spread and so it's an actual breakout) and 2 pips below previous days low for a sell.

just my thoughts, i sincerely want to help you create a more profitable system that if back tested properly(something i can't do) you can share back with us all.

so if you'd like, try back testing those numbers. or if you have better things to do, than i'll understand.

cheers buddy.

dutch
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