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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #4,281
  • May 11, 2007 3:55am May 11, 2007 3:55am
smikester, I wouldn't count on a lot of movement, no more than probably 20 or 30 pips, before the announcement, if that.
  • #4,282
  • May 11, 2007 3:59am May 11, 2007 3:59am
As far as news events go, how do you guys trade them? It seems like every time a good setup comes along, a critical news event is occurring. I mean, just for USD, we have NFP, GDP, interest rate, PPI, CPI, housing, unemployment, consumer sentiment, and that's just the first ones that roll off the top of my head. How do you guys work around these? Do you pay them a lot of attention, or do you mostly stick to your macd signals and not worry about them that much? Even if the trade goes my way, my stop loss would have to be so high, maybe 60 pips on a non-volatile pair like EU, and I'm not willing to do that for many trades. Phil said in his audio that his backtesting included no bias for news events, so maybe I should, for the most part, say a cordial "screw you" to the news and be done with it...? Thoughts?
  • #4,283
  • May 11, 2007 4:08am May 11, 2007 4:08am
lol! In the last NFP MACD gave a good signal congruent with the news... as Phil says the big dogs knows d news already... so theres a good chance that ahead of the news if the macd gives a good signal, I would take it... this is just my opinion... im sure others would have a different view... goodluck to us all today!
  • #4,284
  • May 11, 2007 4:15am May 11, 2007 4:15am
btw if this 4hr candle (8am candle on Mig) manage to close, still giving an RB signal I will take the long on gbp/usd and take a small profit.
  • #4,285
  • Edited 9:43am May 11, 2007 5:03am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting BoredToLoose
Hi guys,

Just to tell you, that I have enter another trade using VT MACD Signal.

I was reluctant to enter, but until CAD and USD Important news, I hope I can reach my TP.
I hope I have before news 25 pips gain to give me a nice gap to trade that news with this trade.

Open at 1.1110 TP 1.1076 SL 1.1145.

MIKE
My trade still open, but I fell that the trade is condemned to fail!!

What a beutiful RB EURUSD is given to us, I have already a trade open since yesterday, long at 1.3487, it is very choppy at the moment, awaitig next Big News.

MIKE

- Wrong number 1.3487 not 1.3587 as mentioned before.
I have closed this trade at 1.3502 few seconds after news.
  • #4,286
  • May 11, 2007 6:25am May 11, 2007 6:25am
Quoting JoshDance
As far as news events go, how do you guys trade them? It seems like every time a good setup comes along, a critical news event is occurring. I mean, just for USD, we have NFP, GDP, interest rate, PPI, CPI, housing, unemployment, consumer sentiment, and that's just the first ones that roll off the top of my head. How do you guys work around these?
I asked Philip a similar question just b4 the last Payrolls data, and he reckons he doesn't trade on these days. I assume it's okay to trade despite on the other ,more insignificant data. I myself would also be wary of ISM data-very volatile day sometimes.
  • #4,287
  • May 11, 2007 6:40am May 11, 2007 6:40am
I have changed my plan. I have watched this boring movement all morning and I can not bring myself to close when nothing much has happened. My view is this: Several people have commented that the "big boys" are already lining up before the news release. Hence signals forming correctly before them. I think a few interbank buy stops have been thrown on the table.

While interbank dealers are able to see the order book and use this to their advantage, the retail fx trader can exploit their ability to react faster, and also with the knowledge that their trades will not move the market, as the trades of the larger institutions will.

The CME and Reuters are planning to launch a trading platform for fx in Q1 2007 - using CME trade matching and clearing technology - this will address the issues mentioned above (ie the spread will be tighter, you will be able to see volume etc.) and it will be interesting to see whether they can attract the liquidity and create a successful marketplace.



So I will let this little pot of tea run with the big boys. If I'm succesful, I will be buying a new mop.
Gone to a better place
  • #4,288
  • May 11, 2007 7:25am May 11, 2007 7:25am
Josh:

I more or less use the evening before any major news announcement as a cut-off for any MACD signals that might develop. If I'm still in a position before an announcement and I've got a good amount of pips banked, I'll tighten up my stop a good bit. I hate giving anything back, especially because of a whipsaw. Several days of work can be gone in an instant. I use FXDD, their server time is GMT + 2. So if the news comes out at 8:30am EST USA, their 4hr candles closes 30 minutes after the news release. I look at this as 30 minutes a "wash-out let the 20 pip spread get back to normal time". I'll watch the charts during the news releases and see how the whipsaws take out the stops but I will not trade it. I've done it in the past and got burned and made a bunch as well but this is more like rolling the dice versus real analysis. Hope some of this helps...
  • #4,289
  • May 11, 2007 8:55am May 11, 2007 8:55am
Hello to Phillip and everyone, I just want to express my deep appreciation and gratitue for your great 4H system Dear Phillip. It is really really great and I thank you very much for the great time that you take to help us all.

I have been reading all posts of this sytem for the past 2 weeks and the PDFs and audio files again and again very diligently and I can say that I really like this clear and concise method and I think i really begin to grasp the essence of it.

Your PDF and audio files of yesterday on motion was marvelous.

Base on a nice round buttom forming with a trigger on the 08:00am EST time candle open, I have taken a long position this morning at 1.3487 and stop loss 1.3437 and take profit 1.3427 near the retracement to the 21EMA. Even the RR is not the greatest for this trade, the perfect RB with great lower wicks or shadow of the few previous 4H candles make it worth it.

So, this trade as given me a nice 20 pips profit as I have move my stop loss to 1.3507 when I had 25 pips and I have been stop out afterward.

Maybe, I need to work on giving more space room to my trades


Very happy to be among you all and wishing you all a great trading day

Sincerly

Shreem
  • #4,290
  • May 11, 2007 9:14am May 11, 2007 9:14am
Quoting shreem
Hello to Phillip and everyone, I just want to express my deep appreciation and gratitue for your great 4H system Dear Phillip. It is really really great and I thank you very much for the great time that you take to help us all.

I have been reading all posts of this sytem for the past 2 weeks and the PDFs and audio files again and again very diligently and I can say that I really like this clear and concise method and I think i really begin to grasp the essence of it.

Your PDF and audio files of yesterday on motion was marvelous.

Base on a nice round buttom forming with a trigger on the 08:00am EST time candle open, I have taken a long position this morning at 1.3487 and stop loss 1.3437 and take profit 1.3427 near the retracement to the 21EMA. Even the RR is not the greatest for this trade, the perfect RB with great lower wicks or shadow of the few previous 4H candles make it worth it.

So, this trade as given me a nice 20 pips profit as I have move my stop loss to 1.3507 when I had 25 pips and I have been stop out afterward.

Maybe, I need to work on giving more space room to my trades


Very happy to be among you all and wishing you all a great trading day

Sincerly

Shreem

Welcome. The more space for your trades to run will come as you grow and get confidence in the system and start to anticipate its motion. good luck
  • #4,291
  • Edited 9:24am May 11, 2007 9:24am | Edited 9:24am
Hello Dear Phillip, thank you for the great advise. You are absolutely right. More confidence I will have, more I will discard my emotional state and let my profit run and cut my loss fast.

BTW, the profondity and deepness of your analysis in this sytem already give me a lot of strenght to study more and more and more.

Thank again

Shreem
  • #4,292
  • May 11, 2007 9:54am May 11, 2007 9:54am
Quoting BoredToLoose
Hi guys,

Just to tell you, that I have enter another trade using VT MACD Signal.

I was reluctant to enter, but until CAD and USD Important news, I hope I can reach my TP.
I hope I have before news 25 pips gain to give me a nice gap to trade that news with this trade.

Open at 1.1110 TP 1.1076 SL 1.1145.

MIKE
This trade has been stoped out! it seems good signal, but I should closed it sonner, when touched EMA8 at 1.1090, Usually I have only one TP, but the great Phillip Method is to follow word by word! I am a asshole!

MIKE
  • #4,293
  • Edited 10:31am May 11, 2007 10:04am | Edited 10:31am
Hey Mike.....
B2L....

Can I take a min. and correct your english.....You are a Jerk, and Idiot, a moron, a jackass....whatever you want to use....but the word you chose means you are a mean spirited jerk...(K...I did laugh b/c I was kinda shocked...think you meant jackass...LOL!) . BTW....I don't think you are any of these things...I think you are a nice guy!

Have a great weekend!

Pips
  • #4,294
  • Edited 10:10am May 11, 2007 10:09am | Edited 10:10am
OK...

I have 100% confidence in this system....but I was too scared to enter the market today...

So, I took my trade on paper...it was long GBP/USD at close of 1 AM PST Candle....

Long at 1.9789 stop @ 1.9745 Target 1 =1.9820 Target 2 = 1.9840 (a few pips shy of 200 & 21 MA's...

Wish I had really taken the trade...both targets were hit....

Goes to show...the system works! Even if I cant...hehehe...

Good weekend to all! See you monday.......
  • #4,295
  • May 11, 2007 10:22am May 11, 2007 10:22am
My trade, I'm sure you will want to know, is going well. Yesterday I piled into the Aussie and did well there, too. Still getting to grips with Phillip's methods and listening and reading.

It is good to hear of other's success, too, shreem. Hope you have lots of it.

This week has been difficult. I dropped a bundle on GBP/USD and am now beginning to recoup. With proper planning this time.

Toodle pips...
Gone to a better place
  • #4,296
  • May 11, 2007 10:29am May 11, 2007 10:29am
Quoting smikester
My trade, I'm sure you will want to know, is going well. Yesterday I piled into the Aussie and did well there, too. Still getting to grips with Phillip's methods and listening and reading.

It is good to hear of other's success, too, shreem. Hope you have lots of it.

This week has been difficult. I dropped a bundle on GBP/USD and am now beginning to recoup. With proper planning this time.

Toodle pips...
Great Job!! Kudos to you for taking the signals and following the system!

I know yesterday was a strange day...and I don't quite understand why so many of us got hit...The signals were clear for our course of action, yet we couldn't follow them. Strage how the mind can sabatoge our efforts!

Like Phillip, I have done a lot of backtesting and don't know what is going on in the world at the time....and the signals are so reliable it is scary! Think we need to think less ....but it's much easier said than done.....we are humans and always want to know WHY.

See you in 2012 at the trader's drinks and dinner celebration!!!!

Pips
  • #4,297
  • May 11, 2007 10:33am May 11, 2007 10:33am
Kappa...

Where are you? I'm missing your trade analysis.......

Pips
  • #4,298
  • May 11, 2007 10:36am May 11, 2007 10:36am
Quoting jland
btw if this 4hr candle (8am candle on Mig) manage to close, still giving an RB signal I will take the long on gbp/usd and take a small profit.

I took the chance and went long with gbp/usd... Open at 1.9782 and took profit at 1.9840... But honestly, i'm not really confident about this trade but RR seems to be acceptable... Watching it is scary specially whenever it drops to below the 1.9770 level... Thank god it did get close to the 21ema.

Which brings me to a question to you guys. Do you watch your trade? Or you just set it and see at the end of the day how it went through? Or perhaps you just check every 4hrs... Is it really necessary to watch our trade? Because sometimes emotions really turn a bad trade down... How many times I've thought of closing my trade today with the fear that my target profit wont be hit. But if I did I would really have turned this profitable trade into a losing one.

Any suggestions?
  • #4,299
  • May 11, 2007 10:46am May 11, 2007 10:46am
Results for last night's trades:

Quoting DGC
EurUsd:
Entered long at 1.3480 TP at 1.3515 and SL at 1.3455
35 pip TP / 25 pip SL = 1.4 RR
This one was still alive when I woke up and showed some upside potential still, so I decided to let it run a while... when it got near my TP it started to slide, so I grabbed 29 pips and called it a day. I would have gotten all 35 if I'd just let it run, but I felt it was important to book what I had rather than let a win slip away...

Quote
GbpUsd:
Entered long at 1.9808 TP at 1.9854 and SL at 1.9773
46 pip TP / 35 pip SL = 1.31 RR
This one was rather frustrating, as it charged straight down and stopped me out overnight, then turned around and made the move I was looking for. Spiked by a damned tail!!

Quote
UsdChf:
Entered short at 1.2201 TP at 1.2182 and SL at 1.2221
19 pip TP / 20 pip SL = .95 RR
A textbook trade that made a beeline for my TP. I wish they were always this easy. It continued on past my TP so I could have booked more, but I couldn't justify a more optimistic TP when I couldn't sit and watch the trade. A pip in the hand is worth 2 in the bush, right?

EU = +29
GU = -35
UC = +19

Total = +13

Have a great weekend, all!
  • #4,300
  • May 11, 2007 10:48am May 11, 2007 10:48am
Lost today on cable because the tail on 8.00-12.00 but recover on euro. Today i am on BE. Great RB signals with 21 MA as target but again thoose tails are nasty. I belive that if u will draw correct the TL u can avoid them.
Didn t entered on chf because the target was small - 20 pips.
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