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Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

  • #2,181
  • Apr 2, 2023 9:30am Apr 2, 2023 9:30am
I'm watching this webinar from the 5%ers on supply and demand. So far it's nothing new, but I'm going to watch the whole series and see if I get anything useful out of it. S&D is kind of my bread and butter, but I'm going to incorporate what I'm learning from SB to filter trade setups. Knowing the weekly template, 3 day cycle, etc will help a lot in not taking counter-trend setups, and, when my S&D setups line up with a BTS, those will be my A+ setups. My entries may not be the same as Burke's in some situations, for example, if we have a FGD and I'm looking to buy low, I might end up taking the S&D buy instead of the universal 5-min entry. Details like that will be ironed out over the next month or so as I work to refine my process. Once I'm ready, hopefully within a couple months, my immediate goal is to do a challenge with the 5%ers and get a funded account. We'll see how it goes.

Inserted Video
Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #2,182
  • Apr 2, 2023 10:28am Apr 2, 2023 10:28am
Quoting Butters
I'm watching this webinar from the 5%ers on supply and demand. So far it's nothing new, but I'm going to watch the whole series and see if I get anything useful out of it. S&D is kind of my bread and butter, but I'm going to incorporate what I'm learning from SB to filter trade setups. Knowing the weekly template, 3 day cycle, etc will help a lot in not taking counter-trend setups, and, when my S&D setups line up with a BTS, those will be my A+ setups. My entries may not be the same as Burke's in some situations, for example, if we have a FGD and...
The whole S&D thing got a bad name, but it is not much different than looking for reversals at weekly highs/lows or pump n dump scenarios.

Being able to meld different methods into one that fits you is golden in my view.

An example is me. I have my (sometimes quirky) theories and a definite different entry methos than most who trade structure. Nevertheless, I use that structure to help find areas to trade when my squiglies say go.

I have no doubt you are on the right track by doing it this way.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,183
  • Apr 2, 2023 10:30am Apr 2, 2023 10:30am
Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park, Java, Indonesia Mt Bromo

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,184
  • Apr 2, 2023 10:43am Apr 2, 2023 10:43am
Speaking of the whole theory thing. I have incorporated a rolling mid-point by using the Kijun. I have set this just as I do the Hulls. It made a difference.

I have more or less finalized my SP500 method. It is mostly just the squiglies with whatever static points are encountered. I trade the indices in a much different way than currencies using the same system. The currencies are continuous and for the most part tradable the majority of the day. I find the SP500 is more of a each day is unique environment. I do no Burke type analysis at all. I trade it short term entirely discretionary based on my theories and the system I have set up according to those theories.

The (hope it is) final rule set and examples will be coming. This time I mean it.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,185
  • Apr 2, 2023 11:15am Apr 2, 2023 11:15am
Quoting spzd
{quote} The whole S&D thing got a bad name, but it is not much different than looking for reversals at weekly highs/lows or pump n dump scenarios. Being able to meld different methods into one that fits you is golden in my view. An example is me. I have my (sometimes quirky) theories and a definite different entry methos than most who trade structure. Nevertheless, I use that structure to help find areas to trade when my squiglies say go. I have no doubt you are on the right track by doing it this way.
Yeah, there is a lot of drama on social media with certain people who trade what is essentially S&D. I don't pay any attention to them, nor have I learned anything from them. They basically take things people already know, wrap it in marketing, and then pretend they invented or discovered something new. It's basically the same as support/resistance anyway, but I think it's better to think of it as zones since price seldom bounces off an exact previous level. Like the beer belly concept from Naked Forex. lol

I agree that it is good to find things that resonate with you, make sense to you and putting it all together into a system that works for you. I was trading S&D for a while when I started watching SB's YouTube videos. After a while I noticed some of his trades he went over were the same trades I took, but I wanted to learn more about his process. I could tell he was legitimate. What he teaches seems to be like a GPS for navigating the charts. So like I said, combining the two I think, is going to be a pretty good combination for me. Plus I just like learning new things anyway.
Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #2,186
  • Apr 2, 2023 12:51pm Apr 2, 2023 12:51pm
I do believe I have the SP500 version finished. I will say this version is fairly solid. We shall see.

Settings are a base 30 for both Hull and Kijun. Trading charts are M1 and M5, with the M15 to see the "big picture". Other than the static levels and points I do not use any other Burke type counting or day types. My focus is the period from 09.30 NY to 15.00 NY. I have found that between 2/3 and 3/4 of the days are small moves in one direction or the other, often retracing part or all in the latter part of the session. The other times are all in whichever direction it is moving.

When I saw a chart with the Kijun on it, this got me thinking about the entire mid-point (50%) and how I could possibly incorporate this into what I had. Over about 3 weeks I tweaked everything, and it fit seamlessly or as close as I can get things just eyeballing them. The addition of the Kijun has also given me an entry for those all in days. This has been something I have been trying to work out for months. All the methods from the various PA gurus were of no help to me as I could not fit any of those methods into what I am doing.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,187
  • Apr 2, 2023 12:53pm Apr 2, 2023 12:53pm
Quoting spzd
I do believe I have the SP500 version finished. I will say this version is fairly solid. We shall see. Settings are a base 30 for both Hull and Kijun. Trading charts are M1 and M5, with the M15 to see the "big picture". Other than the static levels and points I do not use any other Burke type counting or day types. My focus is the period from 09.30 NY to 15.00 NY. I have found that between 2/3 and 3/4 of the days are small moves in one direction or the other, often retracing part or all in the latter part of the session. The other times are all...
[The times are in US Central.]

The open is at 08.30. There are data releases usually at 07.30 and 09.00. The First Hour Box is from 08.30 to 09.30. This period of time sets up the initial range for me (very critical to point out in case I say/do something against the norm). One of these sides, the high or low, will usually (another critical point, very few things are absolute in this game) hold for the remainder of the session all dependent upon price and how it moves that particular day.

The close is at 15.00. Need to be out a minimum of 15 minutes before the close to not entail regular margin.

I have opted for a time period of 09.15 to 13.45 as my overall session. I have broken this down to four separate blocks.

** Block 1 - 09.15 to 10.30

This block comes out of the initial range and will usually have 1 or 2 entries. The last half hour is the time that leads up to the London close.

** Block 2 - 10.30 to 11.45

This block starts at the London close and encompasses what I would consider the NY lunch hour (if there is one). I often use this block to have breakfast. During this period, the only setups are from an arch or trough.

** Block 3 - 11.45 to 12.45

** Block 4 - 12.45 to 13.45

These two blocks are often opposites. If block 3 is up, block 4 will often be down. This is a result of most days being more range like than trend like.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,188
  • Apr 2, 2023 1:37pm Apr 2, 2023 1:37pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} [The times are in US Central.] The open is at 08.30. There are data releases usually at 07.30 and 09.00. The First Hour Box is from 08.30 to 09.30. This period of time sets up the initial range for me (very critical to point out in case I say/do something against the norm). One of these sides, the high or low, will usually (another critical point, very few things are absolute in this game) hold for the remainder of the session all dependent upon price and how it moves that particular day. The close is at 15.00. Need to be out a minimum of...
As I said, to me, each day is unique and I approach each day that way.

Usually by the time Block1 starts or soon after, there is a clearer picture of what may be ahead. If not for the rest of the day at least into lunch (breakfast).
I use both the M15 (red) and M5 (dodger blue) as my cycle indicators. I will use either/or depending on which one shows more structure coming into Block1. And since the Hulls are as sensitive to price movement which cycle is more prominent can change as the day progresses. When the M15 tends to be "flatter" coming into the block the M5 is often the more prominent. There are even the less common days where the M1 is the most prominent and the moves become smaller. This is all part of the process of recognizing the environment and the changes that occur.

What I look for are:

** Cycle Changes

This includes both the main cycle for that day - whichever Hull that is - and the entry cycles. An example of an entry cycle would be the M5 minor cycle inside the more dominant M15 cycle. This could offer a number of entries while inside an larger period cycle.

** Rejections Off Static Points

As it says. If price breaks through a static point, I would look for a possible pullback entry if it falls within my rules.

~~~Yes, examples of all these will be coming. The rules are easier to spell out with the use of pictures.

** Tests of Arch/Trough Areas

This is mostly for times when the M15 or H1 form these. It occurs over a block or more at times. Price will cross equilibrium then pull back to the Hull. This can often be a spike move (wick).

** Rejections/Crosses of the Kijuns

As the various Kijuns are nothing more than dynamic (moving) mid-points, these become momentum continuation or momentum reverse type of entries.


And in this entire process, you need to be aware of pullbacks. They can do serious harm in the futures. Trading futures with a discount broker is likely akin to a higher margin forex broker.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,189
  • Apr 2, 2023 1:40pm Apr 2, 2023 1:40pm
Examples will be forthcoming. As soon as I settle in with this I will tackle the GBPJPY. It will encompass more of the Burke type structure trading.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,190
  • Apr 2, 2023 5:03pm Apr 2, 2023 5:03pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} As I said, to me, each day is unique and I approach each day that way. Usually by the time Block1 starts or soon after, there is a clearer picture of what may be ahead. If not for the rest of the day at least into lunch (breakfast). I use both the M15 (red) and M5 (dodger blue) as my cycle indicators. I will use either/or depending on which one shows more structure coming into Block1. And since the Hulls are as sensitive to price movement which cycle is more prominent can change as the day progresses. When the M15 tends to be "flatter" coming...
First things first, check the news. Even though my trading window is for the most part news free, there is a time 10.00 NY when scheduled data dumps occur. I don't trade news. I trade the aftermath of news. And yes, data dumps can and do have an effect on price. If things get a bit skewed I walk away for 15 minutes then come back. My style requires a more settled market and I stay away when it gets chaotic.

I then have a quick look at the M15 to see what is around me. I always locate where the Previous Day's Close was to where price is. This is an important level. When the PDC is within a relative distance, maybe 20 or so points sometimes, and it is not a zoom away trend day, price has a tendency to try a move to some equilibrium with that point.

The last thing is what point am I with the M15 and H1 cycles.
I try to do this initial check before market open.

Here is the M15 from last Monday before open. I marked a few spots. The H1Hull is forming a flat head. That is an extended arch. The M15Hull is showing definite signs of turning down. This can also be seen by price crossing and going sideways. This is a fairly common repeatable action.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,191
  • Apr 3, 2023 6:53am Apr 3, 2023 6:53am
Waiting for a sell high entry on GJ.
Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #2,192
  • Apr 3, 2023 7:51am Apr 3, 2023 7:51am
AUD getting set up nicely for tomorrow's RATE decision, IMO.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #2,193
  • Apr 3, 2023 7:55am Apr 3, 2023 7:55am
Pu'uhonua o Honaunau National Historic Park, Hawaii

Translates to place of refuge

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,194
  • Apr 3, 2023 7:57am Apr 3, 2023 7:57am
As always this could change quick. So far the H1 is in a flat head and the M15 is looking down. Still some time to go and red data release at 09.00.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,195
  • Apr 3, 2023 8:44am Apr 3, 2023 8:44am
Price is just choppy on GU. Got news soon too. Just watching for now.
Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #2,196
  • Apr 3, 2023 8:46am Apr 3, 2023 8:46am
Quoting Butters
Price is just choppy on GU. Got news soon too. Just watching for now.
A big part of trading is knowing when to not be in the market until it is time.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,197
  • Apr 3, 2023 8:47am Apr 3, 2023 8:47am
Quoting spzd
{quote} A big part of trading is knowing when to not be in the market until it is time.
That is part of my time window studies.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,198
  • Apr 3, 2023 8:49am Apr 3, 2023 8:49am
Was not expecting this, but say it coming anyways, just not aware. Price is above most of the Kijuns and the short term Hulls were up right before open.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,199
  • Apr 3, 2023 9:40am Apr 3, 2023 9:40am
I hate it when there are perfect setups that worked out, but I didn't take them because I didn't want to trade ahead of news. lol UJ had a good pullback setup for a short earlier.
Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #2,200
  • Apr 3, 2023 9:48am Apr 3, 2023 9:48am
Quoting Butters
I hate it when there are perfect setups that worked out, but I didn't take them because I didn't want to trade ahead of news. lol UJ had a good pullback setup for a short earlier.
It is what it is. Will be another. It does kind of burn the rear, but what can you do.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
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