I haven't listened to the price motion files yet....so this post may already be answered.
Sorry to all who lost on cable today (isn't it funny how money is lost when we think about what can and can not happen). MACD gave really good signal for the short (but who would have thought that it would fall so far?)...also signaled fall in E/U.
What I don't get....the news today supported both the Euro and the Pound. The Pound lifted rates...and is now higer % than USD. The US stock market is down more than 100 points.....and the bond market didn't increase. & even though Tony Blair is stepping down in June, the market knew it was coming. Trichet used "strongly viligant," which means another rate increase is in the cards for Euro in June....and again the market sold....The US trade deficit was Worse than expected (granted so was UK's)...but US missed the mark significantly. My question is What has changed to alter the current trends? Did we just see normal profit taking....did we see buy the rumour and sell the news?
So, I'm thinking....nothing has changed to support dollar strength (I really don't get what's going on....I'm suspicious ...why all of the sudden is ECB and UK ok w/strong currencies when 6 months ago they were very concerned.....I'm not a conspiracy theorist...just confused.. LOL)....maybe the market is shaking out the weaker players so it can move up again significantly....and soon (say next few weeks)....?
As for the question on recovery before tomorrow close...think that will depend on core PPI number tomorrow....but I think we should see a good bounce today (hourlies are divergent and oversold)...I can hardly wait for a turn on the 4 hour MACD....look how far away the 21 is already (dang the 200...which says all bets are off on long plays.....agggh ). I'm still licking my chops for the macd to turn....price bounced 18 pips above a level I really wanted to buy at (with MACD of course)...but, 1.9792 is good too
. I have a 1.5 hours more to wait. and the MACD is at a nice level for a correction...-.0035 for cable.....will have to wait and see, eh?
Sorry for my rant.....I'm just confused...Fundies don't support what happened today...of course, the mkt isn't logical....thanks for listening....and thanks for thinking my charts are pretty Millionaire as of 2012 (I LOVE THAT TAG LINE!!!)
Happy pipping!
Pips
Ps....Thanks Phil for letting me post a bit off topic...OK, a lot off topic...hope you didn't mind too much...won't do it again....for a while, at least Gotta go see your market motion posts now (you are so good!).
Sorry to all who lost on cable today (isn't it funny how money is lost when we think about what can and can not happen). MACD gave really good signal for the short (but who would have thought that it would fall so far?)...also signaled fall in E/U.
What I don't get....the news today supported both the Euro and the Pound. The Pound lifted rates...and is now higer % than USD. The US stock market is down more than 100 points.....and the bond market didn't increase. & even though Tony Blair is stepping down in June, the market knew it was coming. Trichet used "strongly viligant," which means another rate increase is in the cards for Euro in June....and again the market sold....The US trade deficit was Worse than expected (granted so was UK's)...but US missed the mark significantly. My question is What has changed to alter the current trends? Did we just see normal profit taking....did we see buy the rumour and sell the news?
So, I'm thinking....nothing has changed to support dollar strength (I really don't get what's going on....I'm suspicious
...why all of the sudden is ECB and UK ok w/strong currencies when 6 months ago they were very concerned.....I'm not a conspiracy theorist...just confused.. LOL)....maybe the market is shaking out the weaker players so it can move up again significantly....and soon (say next few weeks)....? As for the question on recovery before tomorrow close...think that will depend on core PPI number tomorrow....but I think we should see a good bounce today (hourlies are divergent and oversold)...I can hardly wait for a turn on the 4 hour MACD....look how far away the 21 is already (dang the 200...which says all bets are off on long plays.....agggh
). I'm still licking my chops for the macd to turn....price bounced 18 pips above a level I really wanted to buy at (with MACD of course)...but, 1.9792 is good too . I have a 1.5 hours more to wait. and the MACD is at a nice level for a correction...-.0035 for cable.....will have to wait and see, eh?Sorry for my rant.....I'm just confused...Fundies don't support what happened today...of course, the mkt isn't logical....thanks for listening....and thanks for thinking my charts are pretty Millionaire as of 2012 (I LOVE THAT TAG LINE!!!)
Happy pipping!
Pips
Ps....Thanks Phil for letting me post a bit off topic...OK, a lot off topic...hope you didn't mind too much...won't do it again....for a while, at least
Gotta go see your market motion posts now (you are so good!).
Thanks again Phillip for Excellent PDF's and MP3's.....
I thought yesterday's and today's posts were extremely great....on market motion and reminding us to look at the MA's! Thanks again for all you do....you are Fantastic! (wow, I sound like a groupie....EEK.... ).
Hope you made lots of pips today....noticed your 5 min system gave excellent signals too! Wow!!
Pips
I thought yesterday's and today's posts were extremely great....on market motion and reminding us to look at the MA's! Thanks again for all you do....you are Fantastic! (wow, I sound like a groupie....EEK....
).Hope you made lots of pips today....noticed your 5 min system gave excellent signals too! Wow!!
Pips
I haven't listened to the price motion files yet....so this post may already be answered.
Sorry to all who lost on cable today (isn't it funny how money is lost when we think about what can and can not happen). MACD gave really good signal for the short (but who would have thought that it would fall so far?)...also signaled fall in E/U.
What I don't get....the news today supported both the Euro and the Pound. The Pound lifted rates...and is now higer % than USD. The US stock market is down more than 100 points.....and the bond market didn't increase. & even though Tony Blair is stepping down in June, the market knew it was coming. Trichet used "strongly viligant," which means another rate increase is in the cards for Euro in June....and again the market sold....The US trade deficit was Worse than expected (granted so was UK's)...but US missed the mark significantly. My question is What has changed to alter the current trends? Did we just see normal profit taking....did we see buy the rumour and sell the news?
So, I'm thinking....nothing has changed to support dollar strength (I really don't get what's going on....I'm suspicious
As for the question on recovery before tomorrow close...think that will depend on core PPI number tomorrow....but I think we should see a good bounce today (hourlies are divergent and oversold)...I can hardly wait for a turn on the 4 hour MACD....look how far away the 21 is already (dang the 200...which says all bets are off on long plays.....agggh
Sorry for my rant.....I'm just confused...Fundies don't support what happened today...of course, the mkt isn't logical....thanks for listening....and thanks for thinking my charts are pretty Millionaire as of 2012 (I LOVE THAT TAG LINE!!!)
Happy pipping!
Pips
Ps....Thanks Phil for letting me post a bit off topic...OK, a lot off topic...hope you didn't mind too much...won't do it again....for a while, at least
- #4,272
- May 10, 2007 6:01pm May 10, 2007 6:01pm
I haven't listened to the price motion files yet....so this post may already be answered.
Sorry to all who lost on cable today (isn't it funny how money is lost when we think about what can and can not happen). MACD gave really good signal for the short (but who would have thought that it would fall so far?)...also signaled fall in E/U.
What I don't get....the news today supported both the Euro and the Pound. The Pound lifted rates...and is now higer % than USD. The US stock market is down more than 100 points.....and the bond market didn't increase. & even though Tony Blair is stepping down in June, the market knew it was coming. Trichet used "strongly viligant," which means another rate increase is in the cards for Euro in June....and again the market sold....The US trade deficit was Worse than expected (granted so was UK's)...but US missed the mark significantly. My question is What has changed to alter the current trends? Did we just see normal profit taking....did we see buy the rumour and sell the news?
So, I'm thinking....nothing has changed to support dollar strength (I really don't get what's going on....I'm suspicious
As for the question on recovery before tomorrow close...think that will depend on core PPI number tomorrow....but I think we should see a good bounce today (hourlies are divergent and oversold)...I can hardly wait for a turn on the 4 hour MACD....look how far away the 21 is already (dang the 200...which says all bets are off on long plays.....agggh
Sorry for my rant.....I'm just confused...Fundies don't support what happened today...of course, the mkt isn't logical....thanks for listening....and thanks for thinking my charts are pretty Millionaire as of 2012 (I LOVE THAT TAG LINE!!!)
Happy pipping!
Pips
Ps....Thanks Phil for letting me post a bit off topic...OK, a lot off topic...hope you didn't mind too much...won't do it again....for a while, at least
- #4,273
- May 10, 2007 7:10pm May 10, 2007 7:10pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,303 Posts
I have done two trades today.
First I buy GBPUSD at 1.9863 after the second down wave, and my trade was stopped at BE, no win no loose, then I was tempting to buy it again, but I gived up.
Second one it was a Buy limit order to buy EURUSD at 1.3487 SL 1.3447 and is still open.
I never though EUR and GBP could down too much.
Was too much luck I didn't loose money at this crazy day, let see if the order I have open reach at least 1.3500 to close it, because at this pont I do not know if this day was really the Reverse Trend day for EURO.
I was almost to short USDCAD when it touched sma89, but I skip that, because surprises can happen again tomorrow.
Thank you again, Phillip for all your work, I only do about 40% of all my trades using MACD according your study, but the ones I've done almost all were OK.
BYE
MIKE
First I buy GBPUSD at 1.9863 after the second down wave, and my trade was stopped at BE, no win no loose, then I was tempting to buy it again, but I gived up.
Second one it was a Buy limit order to buy EURUSD at 1.3487 SL 1.3447 and is still open.
I never though EUR and GBP could down too much.
Was too much luck I didn't loose money at this crazy day, let see if the order I have open reach at least 1.3500 to close it, because at this pont I do not know if this day was really the Reverse Trend day for EURO.
I was almost to short USDCAD when it touched sma89, but I skip that, because surprises can happen again tomorrow.
Thank you again, Phillip for all your work, I only do about 40% of all my trades using MACD according your study, but the ones I've done almost all were OK.
BYE
MIKE
- #4,277
- May 10, 2007 11:07pm May 10, 2007 11:07pm
Sorry for my rant.....I'm just confused...Fundies don't support what happened today...of course, the mkt isn't logical....thanks for listening....and thanks for thinking my charts are pretty Millionaire as of 2012 (I LOVE THAT TAG LINE!!!)
You're welcome pips ;-) And about the millionaire thing--it's absolutely true you know! In 2012 you and I will be having dinner and drinks together discussing our trading prowess and wealth and laughing at the time when we were just starting (well, I've just started, you've been doing it a while I think)!! And I'll certainly invite Phil, and the whole gang from FF and we'll all toast Phil for his hard work!!
My understanding from the News section of FF and from posts by NewsTraderFX (he's a great news resource) is that, as Phil said in the audio, the 5.25 and 3.75 rates for GBP and EUR were already "baked into" the price (hence, one reason why EUR and GBP have been trending up so high), since everyone knew it was coming. The news section of FF has some wonderful fundamental articles that are extremely interesting (to me anyway), and all that econ stuff about interest rates, inflation, housing, etc., is explained very clearly. It amazes me how two words ("strongly vigilant") or even the absence of them can have such a huge effect on price.
You're welcome pips ;-) And about the millionaire thing--it's absolutely true you know! In 2012 you and I will be having dinner and drinks together discussing our trading prowess and wealth and laughing at the time when we were just starting (well, I've just started, you've been doing it a while I think)!! And I'll certainly invite Phil, and the whole gang from FF and we'll all toast Phil for his hard work!!
Hi MultiMil....I mean Josh
I saw the post after I had written mine....but I later heard (and this makes a lot of sense....End of Corporate Year...the funds were selling after the news because they wanted to book profits for year end performance....and since the news was OK but not super market inducing...they sold. The carry trades were the main targets and they filtered into the majors. (I did see the pattern last year too in my backtest....expect volitility in the next few weeks. So, as always
, Phillip was correct. The message was said one way...and taken another...so I guess the mkt. didn't feel like eating out (LOL)! I didn't take the MACD turn from Asia on Cable...and am glad. Looks like a TC will be on my chart at the candle close in an hour....in the meantime...I'm going to bed...Yippee!
So...2012...drinks it is!! I can hardly wait.
& boy do I have some horror stories from the early days too....and the not so early, yikes!Night all!! See you in 5 hours.
Pips
- #4,280
- May 11, 2007 2:54am May 11, 2007 2:54am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 8,618 Posts
Gone to a better place