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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #8,981
  • Mar 30, 2023 9:42am Mar 30, 2023 9:42am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} You need to find one on the hour chart with a larger target so that you will see a trend on the 5 min with pull backs for additional entries.
When trading these triangles there is no need for 3 entries just set the profit to 2% and the stop to 1%.
  • #8,982
  • Mar 30, 2023 10:02am Mar 30, 2023 10:02am
The ABCD is normally a very reliable signal.

Of the last 15 triangles 13 have behave perfectly.

Of the other two one turned around at the 50% level to hit the other side.

The other was short by a pip and turned to hit the other side.

So if we have a risk of 1% and a reward of 2% we would have.

13 x 2% = 26% wins.
2 X 1% = 2% loss.

In reality we should have no losses by moving our stop to break even when the trade gets underway.

We could have compounded our winnings on several of them by additional entries moving our stop as required to maintain the 1% risk.

Keep the mathematics on your side at all times.
  • #8,983
  • Mar 30, 2023 10:20am Mar 30, 2023 10:20am
My one hour chart looks like this now as I head off to bed.
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  • #8,984
  • Mar 30, 2023 6:19pm Mar 30, 2023 6:19pm
As I awake in the morning, I see the story of the hour and daily unfolding.

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Should be an interesting end to the week if these tops can be smashed.
  • #8,985
  • Mar 30, 2023 7:41pm Mar 30, 2023 7:41pm
Quoting Nala66
As I awake in the morning, I see the story of the hour and daily unfolding. {image} {image} Should be an interesting end to the week if these tops can be smashed.
That bar gone nowhere, you couldn't see it bc it was same color with background (when open = close).
  • #8,986
  • Mar 31, 2023 12:40am Mar 31, 2023 12:40am
Quoting LFrZero
{quote} That bar gone nowhere, you couldn't see it bc it was same color with background (when open = close).
You are so correct the open and close were exactly the same, cheers.
  • #8,987
  • Mar 31, 2023 7:46pm Mar 31, 2023 7:46pm
Difficult to trade the ABCD yesterday. Perhaps because it was the Friday and the last day of the month it made D1 in the final couple of hours.

Note the HD at the top with the bears FINDING support (I was fast asleep by this time). When all said and done this was only a four-hour trade, but it took at least twice that time to set up. A long time to wait.

Now we wait to see if the bears are going to take out the LL average which they should do, but the next level for price to reach is far below which makes it doubtful.

I would expect a signal to take us long instead.
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  • #8,988
  • Apr 1, 2023 2:49am Apr 1, 2023 2:49am
The 1H ABCD hit D1 which means The daily ABCD can't make it to the D. There's a div that gives us sell signal. Maybe the price will test the oposite side of daily ABCD?
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  • #8,989
  • Apr 1, 2023 10:31am Apr 1, 2023 10:31am
Quoting khoadiablo
The 1H ABCD hit D1 which means The daily ABCD can't make it to the D. There's a div that gives us sell signal. Maybe the price will test the oposite side of daily ABCD? {image} {image}
You are correct with the RSI div however there has been several of these and none have returned the price to the EMA instead they have made HH's.

Do not assume the price cannot reach D rather watch for the failure of it to do so by the bears crossing below the EMA and FINDING support.

I look at the daily and see the EMA is still heading for a HH and need to see proof it is not going to make it.
  • #8,990
  • Apr 1, 2023 12:04pm Apr 1, 2023 12:04pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} You are correct with the RSI div however there has been several of these and none have returned the price to the EMA instead they have made HH's. Do not assume the price cannot reach D rather watch for the failure of it to do so by the bears crossing below the EMA and FINDING support. I look at the daily and see the EMA is still heading for a HH and need to see proof it is not going to make it.
Ok. I got it but do you close long in this case because of the div? If you don't till the price cross below ema and find support maybe it's too late for exit? Do you use price action for early entry/exit?
  • #8,991
  • Apr 1, 2023 2:06pm Apr 1, 2023 2:06pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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mine H1 ABCD isn't filled yet; price went from the upper 50% to the lower 50% or from some H1 ema swings to the H4 ema
  • #8,992
  • Apr 1, 2023 8:26pm Apr 1, 2023 8:26pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} When trading these triangles there is no need for 3 entries just set the profit to 2% and the stop to 1%.
I followed through your analyses till this point and got stuck in finding the next target that price heading to (assuming that now we are now at 2023.03.30) and the price just hited the EMA target on H4. How can we draw the next target (which I point - this target) on the picture?
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  • #8,993
  • Apr 2, 2023 6:46am Apr 2, 2023 6:46am
Quoting khoadiablo
{quote} Ok. I got it but do you close long in this case because of the div? If you don't till the price cross below ema and find support maybe it's too late for exit? Do you use price action for early entry/exit?
I don't use the daily for setups at all because they take weeks to execute. It doesn't matter when you enter it can still easily go a hundred peips against you even if you are right. That hundred pips could be in my pocket using a lower time frame.
  • #8,994
  • Apr 2, 2023 6:55am Apr 2, 2023 6:55am
Quoting huskyboy
{image} mine H1 ABCD isn't filled yet; price went from the upper 50% to the lower 50% or from some H1 ema swings to the H4 ema
You could be correct with this but I always go for the lowest target price.

There are three possibilities here I can see.
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  • #8,995
  • Apr 2, 2023 7:01am Apr 2, 2023 7:01am
Quoting Fiona96
{quote} I followed through your analyses till this point and got stuck in finding the next target that price heading to (assuming that now we are now at 2023.03.30) and the price just hited the EMA target on H4. How can we draw the next target (which I point - this target) on the picture? {image}
A new ABCD has formed there.

The bears have not yet FOUND support so we don't yet know if this up move will continue or will the bears roll it over from here.
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  • #8,996
  • Edited 1:57pm Apr 2, 2023 10:29am | Edited 1:57pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I don't use the daily for setups at all because they take weeks to execute. It doesn't matter when you enter it can still easily go a hundred peips against you even if you are right. That hundred pips could be in my pocket using a lower time frame.
As far as I understand, you use daily just for following the trend, you don't keep a trade open till it reaches the daily target? What if we keep it open till daily target gets hit? It's no lose trade if we move SL to breakeven. Meanwhile we still open other trades for profit
  • #8,997
  • Apr 2, 2023 9:32pm Apr 2, 2023 9:32pm
Quoting khoadiablo
{quote} As far as I understand, you use daily just for following the trend, you don't keep a trade open till it reaches the daily target? What if we keep it open till daily target gets hit? It's no lose trade if we move SL to breakeven. Meanwhile we still open other trades for profit
Sure, you can do that, and I am not suggesting you don't. The trade on the daily chart would only require a small lot size for the number of pips it makes over time and this may indeed benefit those who cannot attend their charts for whatever reason.

Like you have done here, think outside the box.
  • #8,998
  • Apr 2, 2023 10:01pm Apr 2, 2023 10:01pm
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Alan may not like this ABCD as BC is on same side, but i think this ABCD hold price rather good. EMA seem trying to find LL on H1, but on daily, it try to find HH. Still, with those inference I have short bias, let's see if there are more information appear before bar 108 then.
  • #8,999
  • Apr 2, 2023 11:19pm Apr 2, 2023 11:19pm
Quoting eliotjng
{image} Alan may not like this ABCD as BC is on same side, but i think this ABCD hold price rather good. EMA seem trying to find LL on H1, but on daily, it try to find HH. Still, with those inference I have short bias, let's see if there are more information appear before bar 108 then.
Well if you had the 4 hour EMA on your hour chart you would see they are on opposite sides. (4 hour EMA is a 104 period on the hour)
  • #9,000
  • Apr 2, 2023 11:25pm Apr 2, 2023 11:25pm
Side by side the 4H and the 1H look like this...

Looks to me like the 1H ema is trying for a LL so the 4 hour target looks on the cards to go.
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