james16 Chart Thread

Quoting isitrue

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Hi,

For PA to be effective, I assume that many people would need to see the same setup. For example, we see a pinbar on 4H that we anticipate will break down. So we set a short order just below the pin. However, other people would short when the right eye meets the left eye, effectively bringing the price lower until it breaks the pin. This, in turn, triggers a bunch of other shorts, resulting in a successful pinbar setup. Without those many people shorting with you, the pin could have failed.

So, if you were to use certain timeframes to interpret price movements that most people don't see, then that would lower the probability that the signal would be a profitable one.

I am not sure if this is entirely true, so someone please correct me if I am mistaken.

-Paul

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Quoting Mr Trend

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I couldn't agree more. Which is why I'm of the opinion that Fibs are nothing more than self-fulfilling prophecies with a cool "history lesson" attached to them.

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Quoting razldazl

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Come on guys, do you really think us little pin bar players move the market? The only players that move markets are central banks and other BIGGGG investors, and I can assure you they arent on the lookout for pinbars to tell them when to go short or go long, we are a teeny tiny drop in the bucket. These pinbars are formations which probably do have some kind of a price based explanation, but you can bet on your grandma that whether joe up the street sees the bar at the same time as you means very very little, imho...Raz
In other words, and please don’t misinterpret I don’t at all mean to say I don’t think PA is important, (In fact I love PA thanks J16) I think you are mistaking how pa is meant to be used. We are all looking for “clues” about the direction a currency/ market/commodity etc will take, and pa is simply a different way to confirm what our system is telling us, whether we are using trendline bounces, ma crossings or whatever our system might be. PA is giving us more clues based on past behavior, so that if you see a pinbar which happens to be at a fib confluence, close to a trendline, at a swing high/low and etc, you know you have a much better chance of making a good trade. But its all probabilities guys, its not always going to work. I would be very very wary of taking a pin if I thought that first other people had to see it, then like it, then take it, wow, that’s a real gamble…Raz

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Quoting mimas

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Raz,
Agree with you there ......I was using the 4 hour timeframe on that chart as you can see bounces of the trendline and a small pin to boot, as you say a sell was in order.
I can see the DBHLC on the 1H interesting stuff ...
Stay Lucky Mimas.

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Quoting Mr Trend

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Uhmm... what's your point? I never said that retail traders move the market. I can assure you, I've been trading long enough to understand market dynamics.

Secondly, you don't know what the big boys use to trade. A LOT use PA. I know of at least one fund manager who uses nothing but S&R... now why do you think S&R works so well? Because everyone is seeing the same chart for the most part and seeing the same levels of support and resistance. That makes up the psychology of the market, and THAT, my friend, is the point.

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Quoting razldazl

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I should really have directed that to isitrue who gave me the impression that he does think retail traders move the market. I have no doubt you have more than enough experience to understand market dynamics mr. trend, this was not meant as an offence, just an opinion.

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Quoting razldazl

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Hmm well there you go on the 1hr dhlc you would have got 20 pips if you were lucky, but on the daily we had a two consecutive high continuation pattern, so breaking that (at high 8306) would have given you a loss (had you stayed in on the 1hr sell) of 20 pips or so...Im sticking to daily charts Mimas, I find it hard to adjust my targets etc on the lower tfs...Raz

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Quoting isitrue

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Hello,

Perhaps I should have been more clear. I said many traders. That means any traders, from small like us on this forum to those that move money around for the major banks. The market is, after all, controlled by people. It takes it's direction from the masses (or at least massive amounts of money).
PA + S/R is the purest form of trading, from what I have seen. It gives a glimpse into where price may move next. Whether using it alone or combining it with a system, it changes the statement "price MIGHT go this way" to "price will PROBABLY go this way."
Therefore, if PA is such a great tool, then why would you assume that the major players do not use it? (Fundamental traders/manipulation of the market aside, of course.) What do you think they do use, if not PA?
Again, I am still new to this, and I was simply offering an opinion as to why I think PA works. It's the simplest, most logical reason that I can see. If I am mistaken, then please tell me a reason why.

Take care,
-Paul

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Quoting mimas

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Raz,
A shame about that one but with stops in place no real damage done.....cannot win all the trades.
MM will see us through.

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Quoting razldazl

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Hey Mimas did you see two consec lows on eur daily and two consec highs on swissie daily? What do you think they have just broken after news...how do you normally play them straight break or on a pullback ? Raz

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Quoting SeekingLight

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Gold + exotics are a little bit linked, AUDUSD seems to have taken a peek at the Gold chart(we fell 20$ in 3 days).

Wonder if we'll fall back below the TL...we're back inside a daily IB now. Kiwi already has a head start.

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