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NFP System - Backtest data provided

  • #221
  • May 9, 2007 6:18pm May 9, 2007 6:18pm
Quoting zalakinc
I know, well the second chance hasnt been blown yet....and even if it does,2 trades is not a big deal. it kind of worries me a bit though wiht its 80% accuracy published.
Price has closed under the 336MA on the second trade. It has also lost 50 pips- at least on my chart it has.
  • #222
  • May 9, 2007 7:31pm May 9, 2007 7:31pm
Wait a sec, I thought initially the stop would be 100 pips, once the first trade has closed for 50 pips profit and second is moved to break even, then only the Moving average stop comes into effect? which one takes precedence?
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  • #223
  • May 9, 2007 7:32pm May 9, 2007 7:32pm
I reviewed the original file for this issue, and its not that clear.
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  • #224
  • May 9, 2007 11:17pm May 9, 2007 11:17pm
As Kevin has said before, this is meant to *supplement* your trading strategy, not to be a "don't use your brain and blindly buy and sell" strategy. Remember that leaving pips on the table never hurt anyone as badly as losing them did. Though I thought I remembered the sentinel histogram being slightly above the 7 day MA, it doesn't now appear that it was... maybe I just don't remember correctly. At any rate, how about waiting for a positive confirmation before just jumping in? If the index was above its MA, it was only be a razor thin margin. Give yourself a buffer. Don't blindly pull the trigger. Use standard TA methods like S/R levels and trends when entering ANY trade. I think Kevin would agree with this perspective of the system.
  • #225
  • May 9, 2007 11:21pm May 9, 2007 11:21pm
Quoting billbss
We gave it two chances this month and it looks like it blew them both.
Actually if you read earlier posts, there has only been one entry possibility, and see my last posts for thoughts on that.

If you will look back over the backtest data, you will see that indeed some months were losers. Not many, but some. The question is, do you have the patience to wait a whole month (or two even) to see profits with a system? All systems lose. This one appears to have a proven track record. The only thing missing is our patience when we want to make money now, now, now! This should be no news--but if you can't make it through two "blown" trades, then no system will ever work for you, because they will ALL go through runs where two, three, or four losses will happen in a row. The minute you begin to doubt your system, your own confidence diminishes, and no system will ever seem to work for you. This is not a fault of the system--it's a fault with our own fear/greed personalities--we all have them to some extent! Some traders are successful regardless of the system used--meaning that a system does not "blow" trades, we do.

So, basically what I'm saying is, why not demo trade the system (if you're not already), and give it a chance to make profits over several months, instead of just giving it 5 days?
  • #226
  • Edited 4:37am May 10, 2007 2:59am | Edited 4:37am
Quoting JoshDance
Actually if you read earlier posts, there has only been one entry possibility, and see my last posts for thoughts on that.

If you will look back over the backtest data, you will see that indeed some months were losers. Not many, but some. The question is, do you have the patience to wait a whole month (or two even) to see profits with a system? All systems lose. This one appears to have a proven track record. The only thing missing is our patience when we want to make money now, now, now! This should be no news--but if you can't make it through two "blown" trades, then no system will ever work for you, because they will ALL go through runs where two, three, or four losses will happen in a row. The minute you begin to doubt your system, your own confidence diminishes, and no system will ever seem to work for you. This is not a fault of the system--it's a fault with our own fear/greed personalities--we all have them to some extent! Some traders are successful regardless of the system used--meaning that a system does not "blow" trades, we do.

So, basically what I'm saying is, why not demo trade the system (if you're not already), and give it a chance to make profits over several months, instead of just giving it 5 days?
Make money now, now, now?

I don't know what you're talking about.

I'm not trading it to start with.

My only comment was that the trade failed- which it did.

On my chart the sentinal index was well above its average and I checked it to insure it was accurate by removing some of the pairs and observing it changing when I did.

There was no excuse. The set up was there. The trade failed.

As for your earlier post advising the use of trend lines, support and resistance lines etc.- this is a mechanical system.
If you want to throw in trendlines and S/R then it is no longer a system, it is a fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants discretionary method.

I can take you back to every one of his 80% wins and show you a reason not to enter those trades, because of S/R or trendlines or triangles or bad candle formations or whatever.
That is not the way the system was presented.
  • #227
  • May 10, 2007 5:30am May 10, 2007 5:30am
Quoting JoshDance
As Kevin has said before, this is meant to *supplement* your trading strategy, not to be a "don't use your brain and blindly buy and sell" strategy.
Well nobody is talking about blindly buying and selling.......I am following rules of this system. second of all, about not using the brain, you are not supposed to make discretionary decisions when trading mechanical system.


[/quote]
Remember that leaving pips on the table never hurt anyone as badly as losing them did. Though I thought I remembered the sentinel histogram being slightly above the 7 day MA, it doesn't now appear that it was... maybe I just don't remember correctly. At any rate, how about waiting for a positive confirmation before just jumping in? If the index was above its MA, it was only be a razor thin margin. Give yourself a buffer. Don't blindly pull the trigger.
[/quote]

Ok, here is where I disagree again. when a system is 80% accurate, I wouldnt try to overoptimize it....we all feel like making changes to the systems but sometimes when good system comes around...with decent reward to risk ratio and accuracy...there is no point in overoptimizing it.

[/quote]
Use standard TA methods like S/R levels and trends when entering ANY trade. I think Kevin would agree with this perspective of the system. [/quote]

I agree with you about using TA, but when trading mechanical system....I would say "Blindly" Pulling the trigger according tot the rules of the system makes more sense.
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  • #228
  • May 10, 2007 5:34am May 10, 2007 5:34am
Quoting billbss
As for your earlier post advising the use of trend lines, support and resistance lines etc.- this is a mechanical system.
If you want to throw in trendlines and S/R then it is no longer a system, it is a fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants discretionary method.

I can take you back to every one of his 80% wins and show you a reason not to enter those trades, because of S/R or trendlines or triangles or bad candle formations or whatever.
That is not the way the system was presented.
couldnt agree with you more.....anytime you enter almost any trade, there would a reason not to trade it...S/R , trendlines, candlestick formations, MACD etc etc...
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  • #229
  • May 10, 2007 6:21am May 10, 2007 6:21am
If there is anything that I've noticed with this method by actually studying the price patters and action over time, is that you shouldn't enter on the first break of the price box. In most situations the price always returns inside or to nearer the top of the box (but still outside) before it reverses and goes the direction the system says it should go. If you would have done this on GBP/USD, it would have kept you out of the trade.

I also use this method with the EUR/USD but it doesn't follow as strongly as GBP/USD. Doing so put me in a trade that's at break even right now. Sure it might go the wrong way but the retest of the top of the box and then reversal in the direction expected is what I have found to be a good entry point.
  • #230
  • May 10, 2007 6:49am May 10, 2007 6:49am
That sounds like a good idea...I will backtest it.
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  • #231
  • May 10, 2007 9:23am May 10, 2007 9:23am
Quoting zalakinc
Well nobody is talking about blindly buying and selling.......I am following rules of this system. second of all, about not using the brain, you are not supposed to make discretionary decisions when trading mechanical system.
I understand your point. However, if you're searching for a black box system that will always do the right thing, I hope you realize it doesn't exist. Even a mechanical system can benefit from basic TA that only the brain can provide. Removing emotions from trading can be good, but removing thinking from it (as with a PURELY mechanical system) is a bad thing. I realize that this method was provided as a mechanical method. I'm saying, why not add to it, and make it your own by doing some extra...

I don't mean to sound argumentative, and if I do, I apologize.
  • #232
  • May 10, 2007 11:03am May 10, 2007 11:03am
Yes, I agree with you Josh. I guess as long as you have backtested it with your discretionary analysis...its ok to trade that way. sometimes, I am too emotional when i see too many pips.....thats why I try to follow strict rules. discretion is not on my side normally.
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  • #233
  • May 11, 2007 3:23am May 11, 2007 3:23am
As I see it there was a re-entry when it closed below last weeks low at around 1.9833 and sentinal was neg. This would have 1 half exited for +50 and the other half still running with stop at BE.
The initial long trade would have been a loss of 2x100 = -200pips with a closed +50 on re-entry and an open position of +59 as of writing.
Is this how everyone else sees it?
Also a question about a further re-entry if it climbs back up and is stopped out at BE and then falls or rises and closes above/below the weekly high/low so long as the sentinal and MA agree it would be another trade?

Richo
  • #234
  • May 11, 2007 2:34pm May 11, 2007 2:34pm
First free PDF goes out today. They will be coming out weekly, on every Friday after the markets close.

There seems to be quite a bit of discrepancy over trading the system with your own set of rules, or trading it strictly mechanically. Allow me to shed some light on this.

Consider this system a brand new house, but built to accomodate. 4 walls, a roof, and the all important doors and windows. When I released this system, I expected the public to learn and grow from it, and make their own informed decisions based on their specific trading style to make this system their own (stated previously, more than once if memory serves me correctly). Though you can live in this house, you wouldn't be near as comfortable unless you had some furniture, appliances, etc. The whole point of releasing my weekly PDF files (goes out today [Friday] after the markets close) is to help you make these decisions when forward testing, or live trading. Notice most of my PDF files thus far suggest reduced lot sizes at times, and even suggest staying out of some of the trades that present themselves. Total mechanical trading on this system is definately possible and has been proven (have created an EA and forward/backtested with positive results), but if you intend to manually trade this system, you'll have to make your own informed and educated decisions, exactly as I do with the system when I release my PDF files.

Some trades on this system are more dangerous than others, such as the inital NFP box trade this month (being that the London session was closed). This fact would have led me to not take the first trade, and the second breakout at reduced sizes (since the box is now under a special cercumstance, and I hadn't tested the success rate on the second breakout of the box). This is where your own discretion should come in. Or, you can simply subscribe to the PDF files, and let me furnish your house for you.

richo12, you're correct. If this running order hits the breakeven point and closes, another order would be opened on a close below the low that was recently made (new low for the previous 2 weeks) and the other indicators point you in the "short" direction.

-Kev
Savage Pip Fiend
  • #235
  • May 17, 2007 2:56am May 17, 2007 2:56am
As I see it we are close to a possible short re-entry on a 30min close below the weekly low of 1.9747, lets see how it pans out

Richo
  • #236
  • May 17, 2007 7:14am May 17, 2007 7:14am
Well it penetrated the low but didn't close below it, now its heading back up
More waiting...
Richo
  • #237
  • May 17, 2007 7:25am May 17, 2007 7:25am
Forgot to mention that that makes a new low for the week so now it must close below 1.9740

Richo
  • #238
  • May 18, 2007 4:02am May 18, 2007 4:02am
OK I have it as a new short at 1.9712, lets see how this goes

Richo
  • #239
  • May 23, 2007 8:36am May 23, 2007 8:36am
Well as i see it we were stopped out again, hasnt been a good month so far
but we need to keep watching. I think its a total of 350 pips loss

Richo
  • #240
  • May 24, 2007 1:43am May 24, 2007 1:43am
If I understand the rules correct it looks like we have a new long at 1.9889.
I am just not sure if you take the all time high from last NFP or just the high made last week and this week?
Kevin can you clarify that please

Richo
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