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  • #301
  • Mar 25, 2023 9:29am Mar 25, 2023 9:29am
I made 2023% this week
  • #302
  • Mar 25, 2023 10:05am Mar 25, 2023 10:05am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
I commend you sir for having the courage to start a forum thread on a controversial topic, as it takes a lot of bravery to open up a dialogue on sensitive issues and encourages constructive conversation and growth.

I appreciate your concern because there are many issues that newbies want to know but don’t have the courage to ask. These forums can be a great source of knowledge for traders.
  • #303
  • Edited 10:35am Mar 25, 2023 10:22am | Edited 10:35am
The best thing to do is to journal all research and interesting things. It starts messy but at some point in time, the dots will connect.

Many people believe that only they and their friends have common sense and logic, and that everybody else is blind. Just try to focus and refrain from finding fault with your fellow humans, as we won't live long.

May peace and prosperity be upon us.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #304
  • Mar 25, 2023 7:25pm Mar 25, 2023 7:25pm
Quoting Ihlas
I made 2023% this week
How about we hear more about your secret sauce - your secret vision that your'e saying little about.
BW spilled his beans, your turn.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #305
  • Mar 25, 2023 8:22pm Mar 25, 2023 8:22pm
I see a lot of talk about Technical Analysis - it's failings mostly - and yet I don't see anyone clearly describing what they mean when they talk about it. IMO, If you are looking at a chart, you are doing technical analysis. And honestly, what is the alternative? None! The forex educators have thought us that there is technical analysis and there is fundamental analysis, and they try to frame the two as opposites. I think that is very misleading. How would you trade without some indication of what a forex pair/commodity has done in the past? By looking at a chart with/without the benefit of political/economic information/events/news, you are instantaneously forming an opinion on whether price has risen far enough that its fall is imminent, or vice versa. You are doing technical analysis in your head at that point. You are subconsciously determining whether price is oversold/overbought - a kind of mental RSI or stochastics. If you are the trader that uses news/political events, you are merely complementing your technical analysis with those.

Another point is that if you are using a stop loss, you are most certainly using technical analysis in your trading - except you are the type of trader that has a set rules of number of pips to use for the SL. Most people - even those who claim to be pure fundamental analysts - would place stops using chart information - beyond support and resistance levels, supply and demand zones, key levels etc. That is technical analysis!
  • #306
  • Edited Mar 26, 2023 12:53am Mar 25, 2023 10:22pm | Edited Mar 26, 2023 12:53am
The recent discussion has caused divisiveness because everyone is smart and always has something to say.

We can't move on from this.

Maybe we an simplify and call it "gauging the market"?

Be it TA, FA, or any other method, we are just gauging the market and position ourselves accordingly on price areas with lesser risk and higher reward?

-------------------

So it seems to me that the threadstarter is gauging the market using the term market intent, wait for abnormal volatility then enter at pullback while always wary of the open lines as initial gauges. So we must trade at that context. I may be wrong though.

Some uses volume, wait for the participants' voluminous entry, join the participants, makes sense.

Some use line attractors, because it "attracts" price. Does it make sense on its own?

Some use pivots because somebody a long time ago used it and it seems to work. Does this makes sense on its own?

Some use MACD divergence because price reverses because of that. Does this makes sense on its own?

Some use moving average crossover, price is averaged and reduced to moving lines to gauge the direction when they cross. Does this makes sense on its own?

If some indicator or method does not make sense on its own, how can they make sense if we put them together?

Can a collection of nonsensical things combine to form something that makes sense?

It's not for me to tell what is nonsense from sensical because we can determine that on our own.

Some use RSI oscillator, RSI goes to 80, he sells because price is at the same time at a round number then he sees pinbar, yet price still goes north. His assumptions failed. This is the point of this thread. Study those assumptions. Record. Analyze. Study. Do not just assume just because a youtuber or somebody said it.

We are missing the point and become hostile towards our fellow traveler. If we can only be constructive, I bet we have learned a ton already by now.

If there is a central algo or watchful central bankers or other big bad boys, does it makes sense to only watch them and gauge their activities relative to current price? Hmmm.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #307
  • Mar 26, 2023 6:56pm Mar 26, 2023 6:56pm
Quoting FulMargnAlch
The recent discussion has caused divisiveness because everyone is smart and always has something to say. We can't move on from this. Maybe we an simplify and call it "gauging the market"? Be it TA, FA, or any other method, we are just gauging the market and position ourselves accordingly on price areas with lesser risk and higher reward? ------------------- So it seems to me that the threadstarter is gauging the market using the term market intent, wait for abnormal volatility then enter at pullback while always wary of the open lines as initial...
Hi FMA, very well written post. Read this comment that tell us FF members already know the truth about the fallacy of TA assumptions.
Quoting handy148
Hid Dave - with all due respect m8 if trading was as easy as waiting for a candle to pop outside the top or bottom Bollinger Band [or PA or watching youtube videos or whatever TA(fill in the blanks)], then the whole world would be millionaires. "
Adult traders are afraid to admit what they already know.

That's why they translate their fear into personal attacks.

The purpose of this thread is to deliver my message for FF which is singular and not directed at anyone particular. Ofc, understandably, adult TA traders take offence.

TA assumptions are faulty, misleading and dangerous.
TA market structure or mechanism knowledge are faulty, misleading and dangerous.

I have nothing more to say. Cheers

Have a great trading week, a great trading month, a great trading year, a great forex trading life.

BWilliam
Know what you trade
  • #308
  • Mar 26, 2023 7:22pm Mar 26, 2023 7:22pm
Quoting R78SD
And honestly, what is the alternative? None!
Hi R78SD, my purpose of this thread is to discuss the fallacy of TA assumptions and market structure knowledge. To raise awareness among FF members and readers.

There's no intention on my part to offer alternative. I have to make this clear.
Quoting BWilliam
Edit - I am not here to teach you how to trade. This thread is a discussion thread in the discussion section, not a strategy thread in the trading strategy section. Ofc I will post charts to demonstrate what I mean in my writings.
If FF members chose/decide to discuss alternative then it's not my decision. I won't participate in such a conversation. However, such conversation is allowed and welcome. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #309
  • Mar 26, 2023 7:52pm Mar 26, 2023 7:52pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi R78SD, my purpose of this thread is to discuss the fallacy of TA assumptions and market structure knowledge. To raise awareness among FF members and readers. There's no intention on my part to offer alternative. I have to make this clear. {quote} If FF members chose/decide to discuss alternative then it's not my decision. I won't participate in such a conversation. However, such conversation is allowed and welcome. Cheers
\

Point noted.

However, you have not shown on this thread (I may have missed it) the "market structure knowledge" you criticize? As far as I know there is no generally agreed "TA assumptions and market structure knowledge" anywhere. There are tens or hundreds of strategies out there based on technical analysis, many of which are conflicting.

So if TA assumptions are faulty, misleading and dangerous, what are those assumptions?
And if TA market structure or mechanism knowledge are faulty, misleading and dangerous, what is your view of market structure that you consider faulty?

More importantly, we as traders may have different strategies we use in executing trades in the market. For us to make money in this market and sustainably too, we must understand the weaknesses/failings of our strategies and put mechanisms in place to deal with those weaknesses, not to bin the strategy and look for the next. That unfortunately, is the attitude of those who seek the holy grail!
  • #310
  • Mar 26, 2023 8:14pm Mar 26, 2023 8:14pm
Quoting R78SD
{quote}\ Point noted. However, you have not shown on this thread (I may have missed it) the "market structure knowledge" you criticize? As far as I know there is no generally agreed "TA assumptions and market structure knowledge" anywhere. There are tens or hundreds of strategies out there based on technical analysis, many of which are conflicting. So if TA assumptions are faulty, misleading and dangerous, what are those assumptions? And if TA market structure or mechanism knowledge are faulty, misleading and dangerous, what is your view of market...
Instant gratification monkeys will NEVER see success in this game, thats a fact no one can prove wrong
  • #311
  • Mar 26, 2023 8:51pm Mar 26, 2023 8:51pm
Quoting R78SD
{quote}\ Point noted. However, you have not shown on this thread (I may have missed it) the "market structure knowledge" you criticize? As far as I know there is no generally agreed "TA assumptions and market structure knowledge" anywhere. There are tens or hundreds of strategies out there based on technical analysis, many of which are conflicting. So if TA assumptions are faulty, misleading and dangerous, what are those assumptions? And if TA market structure or mechanism knowledge are faulty, misleading and dangerous, what is your view of market...
Hi R78SD, to differentiate between assumption and fact.

DOL, day open line, is the price the market start at for the trading day. It's a fact, not an assumption. Even this fact is different for different brokers.

ADR, average day range, is the average day price range based on a lookback period. This is a statistical fact, not an assumption.

FMA post here listed a few TA assumptions. Start from here.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/14374389#post14374389

And here.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/14374770#post14374770

There're plenty of TA assumptions. They are everywhere and easily spotted. TA assumptions accepted as fact or true without question. Therein lies the fallacy of TA assumptions. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #312
  • Mar 26, 2023 9:04pm Mar 26, 2023 9:04pm
One last matter, I will remove all 4 members on my ignore list end of April. You are on this list to prevent you from derailing the ongoing discussion with your persistent personal attacks.

Reminder to all adult FF members. Disagreement is normal. Personal attack is childish. Lets maintain a mature conversation. There's no need for moderation if we do that. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #313
  • Mar 26, 2023 9:23pm Mar 26, 2023 9:23pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi R78SD, to differentiate between assumption and fact. DOL, day open line, is the price the market start at for the trading day. It's a fact, not an assumption. Even this fact is different for different brokers. ADR, average day range, is the average day price range based on a lookback period. This is a statistical fact, not an assumption. FMA post here listed a few TA assumptions. Start from here. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/14374389#post14374389 And here. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/14374770#post14374770...
It appears to mean that you are referring to TA tools - DOL, ADR, etc. As you very well know, these are tools for the trader to use as he/she chooses. They are not facts/assumptions.
  • #314
  • Mar 26, 2023 11:28pm Mar 26, 2023 11:28pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi R78SD, to differentiate between assumption and fact. DOL, day open line, is the price the market start at for the trading day. It's a fact, not an assumption. Even this fact is different for different brokers. ADR, average day range, is the average day price rangebased on a lookback period. This is a statistical fact, not an assumption. FMA post here listed a few TA assumptions. Start from here. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/14374389#post14374389...
Mr BW,

By the logic given in your post (best adr value is an assumption) and daily open line (line traders) wouldn't the following also be fact and not assumptions?

1. moving averages (average of a price over a lookback period and best calcuation - ema, sma etc)
2. pivot points (different settings such as standard, woodies, camarilla etc, like adr values based on assumptions)
3. candle open and close, high and low (like dol)
4. previous high and low (like dol look left at the high and the open)
5. bollinger bands (settings might vary just like assumptions of best adr value)

If you could shed some light on the faulty assumptions as you see it it would be most helpful.

I found this article an interesting read. https://www.alpharithms.com/average-daily-range-adr-090415/
Thanks.
  • #315
  • Mar 27, 2023 12:47am Mar 27, 2023 12:47am
dub dub ching ching
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  • #316
  • Mar 27, 2023 3:01am Mar 27, 2023 3:01am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} ... GU market did not fall because your indicators tell you its oversold. Price action and candlestick patterns did not cause this fall. GU market did not fall because there's more supply then demand. GU market did not fall because there are huge sellers. GU market did not fall because they are after stop loss. GU market did not fall because it's a market manipulation.

GU market fell because, for whatever their reason, the banks decided to move price downwards. Period. ....
you meant here " GU market did not fall because your indicators tell you its OVERBOUGHT" .... and the rest the logic seems to be weird, it smells clearly manipulator, and you confirm with the phrase "GU market fell because, for whatever their reason, the banks decided to move price downwards. Period. "

period.
  • #317
  • Mar 27, 2023 6:44am Mar 27, 2023 6:44am
Quoting RickM
{quote} How about we hear more about your secret sauce - your secret vision that your'e saying little about. BW spilled his beans, your turn.
How can I say more?
Simple math, imbalance (not volume, orderbook,etc) and arbitrage with the help for simple math
I have other patterns that work, but after finding this simple math, don't have time to track them.
  • #318
  • Mar 28, 2023 2:02pm Mar 28, 2023 2:02pm
Riddles and yet more mind f riddles lol

So simple math we.got it... exactly the simple math we aint got.

wheres the nearest brick wall i can bang my head agaisnt bro lol

Quoting Ihlas
{quote} How can I say more? Simple math, imbalance (not volume, orderbook,etc) and arbitrage with the help for simple math I have other patterns that work, but after finding this simple math, don't have time to track them.
  • #319
  • Mar 28, 2023 8:09pm Mar 28, 2023 8:09pm
"People need to be very careful not to demonize something if/when you do not understand the scale of what is happening."

This is me paraphrasing someone from the past.

And this quote is very potent for this thread and others, where tools are seen as the source of anything. I've lost count of how many threads I've been kicked off because people did not understand THIS basic concept. I'm not writing this in response to anyone's posts, merely adding it here, so that maybe some people will learn.

AL I can say here is - if a person does indeed possess common sense, they have no need for the council of others, especially if those others have little to do with your own thinking.

And so it's no surprise why people take so long to learn ...... you're letting other people inside your head.

Just a consideration.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #320
  • Mar 28, 2023 9:49pm Mar 28, 2023 9:49pm
Quoting FulMargnAlch
The best thing to do is to journal all research and interesting things. It starts messy but at some point in time, the dots will connect. Many people believe that only they and their friends have common sense and logic, and that everybody else is blind. Just try to focus and refrain from finding fault with your fellow humans, as we won't live long. May peace and prosperity be upon us.
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Learn or don't learn.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
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