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  • #1,901
  • Mar 23, 2023 7:44am Mar 23, 2023 7:44am
Quoting phil13
priced in..... figures ect as expected, did not even hit any liquidity or minor stops, next news in about 25mins, see if that offers anything....
seemed like squaring into buyers off the news. It's been a long run up
  • #1,902
  • Mar 23, 2023 8:01am Mar 23, 2023 8:01am
Hi Dustin

yes i agree, the news bar yesterday is now looking like exhaustion of the move in usdx, i will be now be looking for a way in to short G/U on any retrace.

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #1,903
  • Mar 23, 2023 8:23am Mar 23, 2023 8:23am
i noticed that too. re-balance of the imbalance? I managed to catch that sharp down move. but price is bouncing of the h1 usdx ma and asian session low on gbp.
  • #1,904
  • Mar 23, 2023 9:03am Mar 23, 2023 9:03am
V's and then us waiting for their scraps that drop from the table.

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THE BANDWAGON THEORY: A GLIMPSE AT HOW THE MARKET REALLY WORKS
Imagine a bandwagon that is rolling forward at a quickened pace. Music
that is very pleasing to the ear is being played from speakers on each side
of this bandwagon, and a few people currently on the back of the wagon
are partying, having the time of their lives. The music, loud and clear,
starts to attract many other onlookers that happen to be idly standing on
the sidelines. These onlookers, unable to resist the sweet sounds being
played, run to join the party that seems to be going on. Progressively,
more and more onlookers jump on the back of this bandwagon, and
those few who were initially enjoying the first phase of the party begin to
leave. As the crowd of new party animals on this bandwagon grows
larger, the bandwagon finds it harder and harder to move forward at the
same pace. It slows, enabling more and more late onlookers, witnessing
the great fun, the chance to jump on. The crowd grows even larger.
Larger and larger this crowd grows, until the bandwagon, heavily laden
with the bodies of drunken party animals, can no longer move forward.
It finally comes to a complete stop. Now that the bandwagon is at a com-
plete standstill, more people jump on. And why not? At this point, joining
the fun is easy. Absolutely no work is required, for individuals wanting
to join the crowd no longer have to run to jump on board. But the nature
of the bandwagon is to move forward. Its motionless state is unnatural,
and therefore cannot last. It tries to move forward again, but can’t. The
crowd, piled on back, is much too large. It must free itself of the heavy
burden. And it does. It quickly shifts into reverse, and jolts backward,
knocking a few of the party animals off the back. The music stops. Puz-
zled faces from the crowd begin to emerge. Before anyone figures out
what’s going on, another backward jerk takes place, only this one is more
violent. Another large group of people gets thrown off the back. Now, re-
ality sets in. The fun has turned into a nightmare of epic proportions, and
panic begins to run rampant. Some decide to jump to their deaths. An-
other thrust backwards sends an even larger group of drunken, off-
balance people, hurling to the muddy ground. It doesn’t stop. The jolts
backward continue, each successive one more violent than the last. At
this point, only a few die-hard wagon dwellers are holding on, their very
lives hanging in the balance by a very thin thread. Failing to be com-
pletely free, the bandwagon angrily puts the pedal to the metal, and this
final thrust backward is so vicious that its front wheels lift high off the
ground, momentarily suspending the wagon in a perpendicular posi-
tion. The last of the hangers-on crash to the ground, broken and maimed
to no end. At this point, a new group of onlookers emerge from the
nearby woods. They are clean and serene. Each movement they make is
deliberate and powerfully energetic, for they did not take part in the
tragedy that just transpired. Or did they? A few of the dejected souls ly-
ing on the ground take a closer look, a look that reveals something very
interesting. This seemingly new group is not new at all. It is the same
group that was seen quietly exiting the party before it came to its violent
end. An even closer examination by a few more beaten-down onlookers
reveals something even more stunning. This group not only exited the
party early, they were the originators of it! “My God,” someone exclaims.
Paralyzed, and unable to move freely, all these dejected souls can do is
watch, as the masters of the game go to work, again. No sooner does the
bandwagon’s wheels hit the ground than this professional platoon bolts
for the wagon. In a flash they are on board. Easy. The bandwagon, now
free of the larger crowd, can move forward freely and gracefully, com-
fortably carrying the more astute group with it. Its pace quickens, and
before long a smooth elegant stride is in place. After a few miles of unin-
terrupted movement, someone from this masterful group flips on a
switch, and suddenly the loud sounds of entertaining music start again.
Someone yells, “OK everyone. Here they come. Let’s do it again.” Within
moments, those who were the former victims of the backward crash be-
come interested again. The music almost calling them from the grave.
And once more, the never-ending cycle repeats.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #1,905
  • Mar 23, 2023 1:11pm Mar 23, 2023 1:11pm
leaving this to run overnight, see where it is when i get up tomorrow............

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #1,906
  • Mar 24, 2023 3:17am Mar 24, 2023 3:17am
the outcome of the overnight trade above................

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #1,907
  • Mar 24, 2023 3:32am Mar 24, 2023 3:32am
USDX update............. UK news in about an hour.....

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #1,908
  • Mar 24, 2023 3:43am Mar 24, 2023 3:43am
Quoting phil13
USDX update............. UK news in about an hour..... {image}
Yesterday they waited until USDX retested its OB in failure swing before the run - my man did too after all the news.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #1,909
  • Mar 24, 2023 4:14am Mar 24, 2023 4:14am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Yesterday they waited until USDX retested its OB in failure swing before the run - my man did too after all the news. Alex
Hi Alex

yours was a much a cleaner move than mine, but as always like you said USDX gave it away again with the last OB test but there were clues before that, that is why i stated i was looking for a good short entry yesterday way before the OB test, after the news was all out on rates for both pairs it became very evident that the last news bar on the 7th run down was very likely now an exhaustion move, so then it was finding the correct timing using the scouts, hope you managed to catch some as well.

Phil.

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #1,910
  • Mar 24, 2023 4:40am Mar 24, 2023 4:40am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alex yours was a much a cleaner move than mine, but as always like you said USDX gave it away again with the last OB test but there were clues before that, that is why i stated i was looking for a good short entry yesterday way before the OB test, after the news was all out on rates for both pairs it became very evident that the last news bar on the 7th run down was very likely now an exhaustion move, so then it was finding the correct timing using the scouts, hope you managed to catch some as well. Phil. {image}
I watched cable.

I took the first run down too in m5 then got out before all the news games - then back on again at the OBs - I felt that was where they were going with those games. I saw USDX turn as you did - but i like the killing fields term so I am gonna borrow it. Staying out now as have stuff on.

May I ask how do you know if the pullback will go to OB or stop at say liquidity void or whatever - is it just feel of the price action how strong are bulls/bears?

Thanks

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #1,911
  • Mar 24, 2023 5:25am Mar 24, 2023 5:25am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I watched cable. I took the first run down too in m5 then got out before all the news games - then back on again at the OBs - I felt that was where they were going with those games. I saw USDX turn as you did - but i like the killing fields term so I am gonna borrow it. Staying out now as have stuff on. May I ask how do you know if the pullback will go to OB or stop at say liquidity void or whatever - is it just feel of the price action how strong are bulls/bears? Thanks Alex
Hi Alex good to hear you caught some too.

you can never know where price is going for sure, it is all about understanding the clues and working out the probability from these for the base idea of the next move and your plans, the market price does not always do what it looks like is going too most of the time, this is where you have to study the bars and levels in your chart and the usdx, then try to find the MM's and pro's bring that timing together, it is looking behind the meaning of the bar arrangements as a group ( fti called it something but i can not recall the name atm), ah yes i remember a compound read. i pretty much ignore bars if they are not in/near liquidity unless i am in a trade, you see the lines i put in my charts that show when s/r happens, green changing to red, (usually SHS in this set up but no always), there are many ways to turn the market, some are easier to see than others, but always use the htf's for direction and m5/1 for entries, the clue are often in the htf's a long time before the turn, this why i believe fti called me the crock hunter because i was always working on ways to track the big boys which AOW helped me greatly with, i understood that all the mainstream stuff and 99% of what is out there is deception in one form or another by the time i found and joined his thread.
we must understand our measurement of time is not the same as market measurement of time in the way it moves, then you can develop your nautral 'feel' and understand why price moves the way it does and what its next move is likely to be.

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #1,912
  • Mar 24, 2023 5:35am Mar 24, 2023 5:35am
news trade..................

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  • #1,913
  • Mar 24, 2023 8:39am Mar 24, 2023 8:39am
i took this trade mainly to try to show in real time some of what i was talking about above, news in about 5mins..............

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #1,914
  • Mar 24, 2023 9:32am Mar 24, 2023 9:32am
news trade...............

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calling it a day now, just feel i have enough of trading this week and i suspect it will range maybe.

have a good weekend all, and see you on the battlefield next week.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #1,915
  • Mar 25, 2023 6:01am Mar 25, 2023 6:01am
the clocks move this week for europe and uk so the timings will be back to 'normal' sync with the US which should make trading a little easier for us.

what will the next moves likely be?????...................

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  • #1,916
  • Mar 27, 2023 7:25am Mar 27, 2023 7:25am
start of trade off charts above, just had to wait for the timing to line up.....................

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will show the rest when i exit this trade.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #1,917
  • Mar 27, 2023 8:08am Mar 27, 2023 8:08am
Quoting phil13
start of trade off charts above, just had to wait for the timing to line up..................... {image} will show the rest when i exit this trade.

My man has been weird,

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #1,918
  • Mar 27, 2023 8:59am Mar 27, 2023 8:59am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} My man has been weird, Alex
looks like they are playing in the eurocable cross
  • #1,919
  • Mar 27, 2023 9:10am Mar 27, 2023 9:10am
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} looks like they are playing in the eurocable cross
I thought my man was going with the D1 bounce and to fill h1 gap and it had good news this morning - so I had long on and lost my bottle .

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #1,920
  • Mar 27, 2023 9:11am Mar 27, 2023 9:11am
Quoting phil13
start of trade off charts above, just had to wait for the timing to line up..................... {image} will show the rest when i exit this trade.
stopped out at B/E.... time to re assess.....
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
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