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  • #181
  • Mar 20, 2023 5:52pm Mar 20, 2023 5:52pm
Quoting RickM
Fuck TA
Well said! 👍
Know what you trade
  • #182
  • Mar 20, 2023 6:09pm Mar 20, 2023 6:09pm
Quoting BWilliam
If the market trades above dol and stay above the support level(blue box), it's likely the banks push it in the direction towards the top adr band. The opposite is true. For GU today, given the lack of volatility yesterday, it's likely banks may push price below dol and blue support level. Let them show their hand. We watch. The m5 and m1 pics. The question is, At which point today we know the banks intent for this pair. Let me remind everyone. I am showing you how I track this market, my way how I aim for 50pips profit target. It's not the only...
how are these blue boxes defined?
  • #183
  • Mar 20, 2023 6:14pm Mar 20, 2023 6:14pm
Quoting ntk
{quote} how are these blue boxes defined?
Hi ntk, quantitative statistical math.

I made a live call on Thursday when banks was on the way moving price towards target.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/14363814#post14363814

The market has failed to push past this level for the past 4 days. That's the blue box(known ahead of time) on the h1 chart when we trade intraweek.

Every timeframe has it's own blue box.

This is my quant trading. Cheers

Ps - Reminder, this thread is about the faulty, misleading and dangerous TA assumptions. Not my trading.
Know what you trade
  • #184
  • Mar 20, 2023 6:29pm Mar 20, 2023 6:29pm
Quoting BWilliam
...

Big secret sauce, the only thing that can move a intraday swing 50pips and more is h4 intent.

Cheers
BW

Ps if you want to trade intra week, it's the same, just increase the intent to daily candle and day intent. There are 5 day candles a week, forget about Monday candle, start with Tuesday, you hv 4 candles to figure out.

The same big secret sauce, the only thing that can move a intraweek swing 100pips and more is daily intent.

And if you prefer shorter tf, then the only thing that can move a h4 swing 20-30pips...
I am not sure the way I interpret is correct to your ideas, I still missing many clues
I going back 500 bars look the chart in H1 and draw the H4 box (fram each 4 H1 candles, so I have a quasi harami H4 candle), I see the intent you are talking about this way, id there was an intent, giving me a cause to enter my trade and i get at least 50 pips from the trade is when the h4frame breaks out, meaning it edges higher lower the previous box, and that is the direction I trade too, I trade with not with the trend but with the intent.

but interpret in this way in pic1 I can get only 28 pips in pic2 I get 34 pips, some other I sure can get +50 or 100 pips .... But we know the market is famous for fake move, fake breakout, if intent is synonym with H4 frame box edging out, how can I safeguard? where should I set SL incase price returns against my trade?
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  • #185
  • Mar 20, 2023 6:35pm Mar 20, 2023 6:35pm
I made a post here to demonstrate h4 intent for intraday swing trading. Look at the overlay h4 m-candles, that's what intraday swing traders trade, WE TRADE H4 CANDLES for intraday swing trading. I've written this a thousand times.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/14357120#post14357120

TA traders use ob/os indicators, draw horizontal support resistance lines, pivot and price action read from m1 or m5 candles to guess this intraday swing move. Does it make logical sense? That's utter rubbish assumption! Cheers
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Know what you trade
  • #186
  • Mar 20, 2023 6:56pm Mar 20, 2023 6:56pm
Quoting ntk
{quote} I am not sure the way I interpret is correct to your ideas, I still missing many clues I going back 500 bars look the chart in H1 and draw the H4 box (fram each 4 H1 candles, so I have a quasi harami H4 candle), I see the intent you are talking about this way, id there was an intent, giving me a cause to enter my trade and i get at least 50 pips from the trade is when the h4frame breaks out, meaning it edges higher lower the previous box, and that is the direction I trade too, I trade with not with the trend but with the intent. but interpret...
Hi ntk, look at the hi lo of the average range to tell you the bank induced volitaliity for possible breakout. I wrote a post about this.

Looking at previous hi lo candle is meaningless and faulty TA assumption. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #187
  • Mar 20, 2023 6:59pm Mar 20, 2023 6:59pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}Hi ntk, quantitative statistical math. I made a live call on Thursday when banks was on the way moving price towards target. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/14363814#post14363814 The market has failed to push past this level for the past 4 days. That's the blue box(known ahead of time) on the h1 chart when we trade intraweek. Every timeframe has it's own blue box. This is my quant trading. Cheers Ps - Reminder, this thread is about the faulty, misleading and dangerous TA assumptions. Not my trading.
my question in hindsight I can see price reacts to the blue box.
what about live trading? The blue box must be draw from a level to level, maybe from a time to a time, but it is not the Asian range box, or killzone pre session open, ... How can I draw the box in H1 M15 M5 in the attached pic., and how can I draw the box to today chart? it must use hstorical data somehow? Can we use work to define it?
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  • #188
  • Mar 20, 2023 7:19pm Mar 20, 2023 7:19pm
Quoting ntk
{quote} my question in hindsight I can see price reacts to the blue box. what about live trading? The blue box must be draw from a level to level, maybe from a time to a time, but it is not the Asian range box, or killzone pre session open, ... How can I draw the box in H1 M15 M5 in the attached pic., and how can I draw the box to today chart? it must use hstorical data somehow? Can we use work to define it? {image}
Hi ntk, this is what i see for gold. Cheers
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Know what you trade
  • #189
  • Mar 20, 2023 7:30pm Mar 20, 2023 7:30pm
Quoting hope&glory
Bro clearly not getting any and totally frustrated . Need to chill or maybe get some serious therapy treatment for what ever drama you had or are having in life. mature up bud and be pleasant acting like a spoilt teen brat. feeedom of speach so chill .. {quote}
So you find your brains in your ass. Nice to know.
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #190
  • Mar 20, 2023 7:36pm Mar 20, 2023 7:36pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} So you find your brains in your ass. Nice to know.
Peter

We don’t need to hear about your fantasies
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #191
  • Mar 20, 2023 7:38pm Mar 20, 2023 7:38pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi ntk, look at the hi lo of the average range to tell you the bank induced volitaliity for possible breakout. I wrote a post about this. Looking at previous hi lo candle is meaningless and faulty TA assumption. Cheers
Ok so there is a different when we overlay H4 candle or a frame box on H1 candles.

But if we compare the strecke of the retracement, from begin to end, then the push upwards ... they have run same pips in pic 1 and 2 I dont understand your objection, I have the ADR low and high mark on the chart on the right hand side, they are the same n both pictures...

Maybe I have them draw on chart but I lack the basic to link them together to understand this phrase "look at hi and the lo of the ADR to tell you the bank induced volitaliity for possible breakout" Could you pls mark in the picture the hi lo of ADR and what you mean with the induced volitaliity for possible breakout?

Ah, I read some where one post related to your discussion something with 33% Is that the statistical quantative hint you mean, so 33% from the hi to low of the ADR
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  • #192
  • Mar 20, 2023 7:45pm Mar 20, 2023 7:45pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi ntk, this is what i see for gold. Cheers {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Thank you. Very kind of you to share your thought on GOLD. But no I did not want where to buy where to sell tips, I want to understand what you talking about in your chart when you discuss with other traders. I like to understand and apply on chart correctly

pls tell about the blue box. What is the key word how can I find posts you describe its draw method
  • #193
  • Mar 20, 2023 7:53pm Mar 20, 2023 7:53pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi ntk Forget bloody TA, it’s not required other than a brief glimpse at a candlestick chart. First question? Is there expansion of price? Thats all we need to know, then apply smart money management to the chart and you will make some good money. No one makes good money using TA, they make good money using smart money management. Last night on Gold, after reading the tape and seeing excessive volume levels - I when Short. First trade Short failed - cut at 8 Ticks Second trade Short quickly when into profit due to great volume signals. Third...
So black and white thinking is on the menu again. Gotta love the ignorance.
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #194
  • Mar 20, 2023 8:10pm Mar 20, 2023 8:10pm
and even when I comply to TA rule trading in a trend, How can I be sure there is no retracement back to this 50% 60% zone. if I buy the dip at 1980 thinking gold can go to 2100, on Tue if it retrace to the 50% it is 550 pips easily burn my account, or wipe out half of the profit if I did manage to trade a long position before the price pushed up from 1850 to 2000.
BTW the whole time pushing up if left behind many unfilled fair value gap or volume imbalance, even from area around 1850 unfilled gap, who can tell market maker left them behind and wont come back there to get fueal before pushing price above 2000 again?
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  • #195
  • Edited 9:58pm Mar 20, 2023 8:42pm | Edited 9:58pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi ntk Forget bloody TA, it’s not required other than a brief glimpse at a candlestick chart. First question? Is there expansion of price? Thats all we need to know, then apply smart money management to the chart and you will make some good money. No one makes good money using TA, they make good money using smart money management. Last night on Gold, after reading the tape and seeing excessive volume levels - I when Short. First trade Short failed - cut at 8 Ticks Second trade Short quickly when into profit due to great volume signals....
thank you
I did make money too yesterday RickM although not that much because I have to be careful with the allowed max %DD on a 5K evaluation account. So I made 244$ on the expansion, thinking price would retrace then continuation up again I lost the profit back to the market, after several SL hits, then several hedging wiggling out of market moving the wrong direction than I trades, ended with only 118$ by market close. I should have stop at 244, but we are there to learn to trade better and consistent ... every expansion and retracement of the day gives one more opportunity to test the trading confidence,

I have interest in BWilliam's method about bank level, bank intent for a percent of certainty when I enter a trade, better then trading by chance if win win big if lose lose small, the SL take care if trade not held the pressure...

BTY you mention also a word "your bank level", what to do understand under "the bank level", what level was that yesterday could you pls share a chart. It is not the level mark by The Brilliant Bank Level indicator, no?
  • #196
  • Edited 1:34am Mar 21, 2023 1:14am | Edited 1:34am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
...Banks ALWAYS move price to demarcation zone(blue box) or the extreme. Which is already sitting on your chart for ALL timeframes, except traders don't see them and therefore not aware.

Forex price movement at demarcation zones and extreme is highly supervised by CB.

This organised price movement is wrongly interpreted by retail traders as market manipulation and many other misleading narratives.
and this statistic quant blue box and all the Aw, ah4rs, ah1rs, am15 etc are not MT4 tool, I need quant lab to get them?

banks always move price ... what kind of move? like a blue box is similar a magnetic box, or it function like a mirror bank would move the price always to the other side to test the extreme opposite side? Could you be more realistic on what kind of move? I hear this hear that, I have the SM_ADR_marker on the chart amd I expect during a trading day the price would start at once end then would end at the other end, but because the name is related to average, sone day price would reach ADR lo to ADR high, or vice verrsa some other days price stops short before the marks ...but i dont know what really a trader should know about liason between the ADR and daily price movement. I am a practical trader, not a researcher

I thought
1/ price movement was chaotic ... it is wrong it does move under certain influence
2/ price is manipulated .... you said I am wrong
why are the price chaotic movements , the extremes are "organized", "supervised" but not manipulated? it is very murky to accept price movement is supervised not manipulated .... But , it's OK, I am not researcher. I can live with it could you be more explicit on how organized supervised

look at this chart i attache, could you say discover any similarities with the blue box? or the level do not make any sense? the price level do not have to match accurately I can live with few pips difference.

If I ask what would you say that price extremes some days inside/on the level, some days out side the R4M_ADR's levels?

And could you say more according to the level of the blue box on Fri 17/Mar "the way, posted charts with blue box. Only on Monday, traders see this unfold on their charts. TA can not tell what the banks intent and their price target." what we should have expect to see on the following Monday as organized and not manipulated?
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  • #197
  • Mar 21, 2023 1:39am Mar 21, 2023 1:39am
Quoting ntk
{quote} thank you I did make money too yesterday RickM although not that much because I have to be careful with the allowed max %DD on a 5K evaluation account. So I made 244$ on the expansion, thinking price would retrace then continuation up again I lost the profit back to the market, after several SL hits, then several hedging wiggling out of market moving the wrong direction than I trades, ended with only 118$ by market close. I should have stop at 244, but we are there to learn to trade better and consistent ... every expansion and retracement...
Hi ntk

This is BWilliam's thread so I will drop my comments about my Bank Level BS here to avoid confusing anyone reading BW's thread.
If you made $244 on a $5K evaluation, that's exception.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #198
  • Mar 21, 2023 1:44am Mar 21, 2023 1:44am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Yes, an interesting movie about how the average institutional traders are really far worst at allowing large draw downs than the Forex Factory bum who's attempting the next prop firm challenge. We are far better than those reckless idiots, we are almost saints. After watching that movie, pay for the Audible book called Flash Crash from Liam Vaughan. Here we learn how a bloke trading from a small bedroom in a flat in a London neighborhood who was trading E Mini S&P Future contracts got blamed for destroying the US stock markets on that bad...
I predict the future price because...
I am the trend.
But I am NOT better than sex. Maybe equal to? I'll ask my wife.

Thanks for allowing me to joke about my trading skills and for listing the movie and book. I enjoy that stuff and will get them. I watched "The Big Short" for the 3rd time a couple weeks ago and actually could feel/understand the emotions of what they were going through when they were getting played on their delayed payoff by the big$ people who created and sold the derivatives to them while the same big$ people were off loading their losing side to "unsuspecting" clients and moving/shorting to the side of the people they wrote them for so they could try to cover their huge losses because they took too long to get out and go the other way. Good stuff!
  • #199
  • Mar 21, 2023 2:11am Mar 21, 2023 2:11am
Quoting CashBox
{quote} I predict the future price because... I am the trend. But I am NOT better than sex. Maybe equal to? I'll ask my wife. Thanks for allowing me to joke about my trading skills and for listing the movie and book. I enjoy that stuff and will get them. I watched "The Big Short" for the 3rd time a couple weeks ago and actually could feel/understand the emotions of what they were going through when they were getting played on their delayed payoff by the big$ people who created and sold the derivatives to them while the same big$ people were...
Now thats a film I haven't watched for a while, may just rent it (actually I think I have a CD somewhere) that movie and watch it again this weekend.


Talking about books, is there a better story out then than "The complete Turtle Trader" by Michael Covel.
Imagine taking a bet with your business parnter that you could teach a bunch of everyday people (some with no trading experience) and turn them into some of the most talked about group of traders in history. Some when on to become some of the biggest money mangers in US a decade later.
Now we know where the film "Trading Places" make have got their story line from.
It did prove you can teach regular dickheads to become profitable, and it was mostly because of smart money management,
and Fuck all TA
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #200
  • Mar 21, 2023 2:31am Mar 21, 2023 2:31am
Quoting BWilliam
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Hi, the difference is people don't know the real price target at 161.870 which the banks will push to in new York session right now. The earlier 2 pushes, one in Asia and one in London session will likely fail. Today I chose not to short the expected failed push in London session. My point is extrapolating horizontal lines from previous high low and then assume them to be support and resistance is rubbish. I wrote my opinion in detail in my posts above. I bet nobody is aware banks push price up to their intended target
...
162.178 is calculated with data before the Fri 18/ Mar
So 162.1870 is there first before the price is pushed up
. Why BWilliam talked about common traders do not expect
price would test on Fri this level?
look left we can see the latt HH or LH white dots were
already there, with the upleg on Thursday I do expect a
retracement , but 162.187 is very closeby, I would
expect price will sweep liquidity, fuel up there, before
retracces down lower to 38%, 50%, 62% or 78%

I dont understand why you think "... the difference is people don't know the real price target at 161.870 which the banks will push to in new York session right now"
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