(binned per thread starter’s request) Intraday swing trading

Swing trades have stages.

Ok, as far as lines from previous H and L's go .. yes, traditionally called support and resistance... but I'd argue they are still of great importance whatever u want to call them. Reason? They mark levels on the chart that will activate trader INTEREST and therefore bring orders into the market. Obviously I'm not saying blindly fade resistance or buy support as the market just couldn't function if it were that easy, but these areas will be used for manipulation. Of course this is elementary trading school class 1 and everybody here knows that.

You extrapolate some horizontal lines yourself of course ...eg DOL , previous ADR, possibly H4 ranges and midpoints? In post 17 you took profit at YESTERDAY's ADR low. Hmm, I had to think about that. Considering the day before didn't reach full ADR, that was a price that hadn't even printed on the chart. How many charts around the World will have yesterday's ADR on today's chart? Yesterday's range, yes, but ADR? There was a very slight reaction at that level, but price kept going. Are you hinting that yesterday's ADR H and L are important if 100% ADR wasn't reached?

Post 49, the GJ trade. Well I have to admit, on a 350 pip up move to profit from a 50 pip short was quite something (I think there was only one other place on that move you could have profited from a 50 pip short and that would have involved selling and buying at the absolute extremes of the swing). Ok, it's a touchback on your demarcation S/R line and a reasonable place to try a short.....

"Hi Rmg, I trade one way only. Bounce off support resistance in the direction of the trend. Minimum 50pips profit target."

Which kind of leads me back to this??

"Hi Peter, I have no problem with jargon. My problem is when we extrapolate horizontal lines from previous high low and then label them support and resistance. There's assumption behind the jargon and this assumption is faulty and misleading."

I still have no idea about this H4 intent looking at that particular chart.

I know English isn't your first language (even tho it seems fine to me), so this post is not a criticism, just looking for a bit more info to work on.

cheers
DM

Yes Peter the old motorbike, car, truck on the roundabout. is M1 the cyclist who gets crushed by trucker who can't see him in his mirror..sorry, bad joke.
I'm still not proficient in nailing turns that way as I'm still having trouble scaling in and out of trades as opposed to single trade hits

Only today AFTER the fact how banks move price today do members on FF see the significance of 161.870 which was already sitting on our charts 24hours ago. Traders on FF know about it many hours later. Well, they have been busy drawing horizontal lines and label them support resistance. Enjoy the drawing them.

About todays market the demarcation zone is 160. 3280 already sitting on our chart(watch this level - adr lower band closely). Ofc banks will drop price towards this target. Either you know or you don't. What label you use does not matter. If you don't know, then tell us how you use traditional technical analysis to trade intraday swing trades with 50pips profit target.

Reminder, this thread is not about the way how I trade. This thread is about how traders use traditional TA to trade intraday swing trades 50pips minimum or you can't. Cheers

I don't hint, I wrote it several times already. Read if you are interested. Cheers

Mine. I have the history on my charts. Cheers

A lot of people find that .... until they realize markets operate in a minimum of 3 different directions. Up, down, forwards and backwards. Most people are either "trend followers/traders" or "counter directional" in their attempt to place their orders. But here's a tip ...... Trends ALSO go in all four directions. Most people, truthfully, REALLY want to "trade the trend because ... the trend never ends". That's how most people REALLY think. Even if they won't say it. So why not have an approach setup ongoing, to track each "trend direction"?

To start, setup one approach to track usual direction of up and down. And then find a way that works for you that tracks the other direction. I use an Index or Treasuries or energies or options, or a combination. But many won't or cannot do this. So, to keep it simple, go through all ways you have used or tested etc, that may assist to see or point to feasible reversals. In many of my own writings on this site you'll see many eg's. But I'm sure you have tried several yourself as have others.

Beyond this, trial your own ideas based on HOW a market likes to move and turn. The rest is down to experience.

With experience you will start to learn what to use and when. A tight stop level may not be the wisest choice when trading eg GBPUSD, that likes to create large blowback spikes as it moves along. So you need to gauge the animal on its merits and not on expectations or assumptions. Most indicators today aren't much help if you don't understand specific basics of reversal and the concept of trend, without obsessing over it. But labels aside, on my own thread I spoke about Tiers 1-4. This relates to the space and time used by a market to "move" be it up or down. Perhaps re-read it and take notes.

Seeing as much of the world is using the same types of base level trading softwares, it's easy to conclude that Tier 1 will be a universal baseline. So small is small and big is big.

Then of course what a person constitutes as a "target" for profit. For me I go for sensible profits that I can reach each session and day. Thereby reaching a swing point, the targets I use are sensible inline with what I'm dealing with. I don't like "swing and a miss" trade setups. And I don't look for trailed levels because the market you trade will tell you what it can do LONG before it reverses at that final price point. Swings are good training for seeing what goes on, as I'm sure you're noticing.

I hope this helps.

Peter

GY chart.

Just as a note here - today's " technical analysis" used by many people is not TA, it is speculative analysis. It bears no resemblance to real technical analysis. AT ALL. I know, I watched it all change from one thing to this today.


Peter

When banks made clear their intent, wait for pullback and then hop in the direction of their intent for 50pips profit target.

Last post to show you my trades that are in line with all my posts about banks intent to target trading.
I trade what I wrote about forex market structure on FF.

I will take a back seat from posting, read other members post how they trade intraday swing trade. Cheers

Hi Peter, traders like me have moved away from primitive technical analysis to quant statistical methods given the market has grown to be more competitive. I see a lot more reliable and extensive future info ahead of time on my chart. Trading forex is essentially a speculating activity. Cheers

You can buy/sell at the red line
But should be confirmed with market close
Not intraday, but profitable day

I only trade frankfurt/london session, but i notice lately the main moves happen at ny session (news releases?). probably next week or few after they happen at london again. I like your box style.. have some discipline to focus on.. discipline will make u catch the right move. I enter on on m5 and want at least 21 pips or more. Today catched the fake move on gbpjpy. And lost on the real move of gbpchf.. timing is everything with my fake tick volume

Hi DM, yesterday's hi lo, and yesterday's range is useless info. There's no logical reason why today will repeat yesterday's high and/or low, and why repeat yesterday's range. Yet, retail traders religiously draw such lines on their chart. That's what they learnt from technical analysis without questioning the logic behind the underlying assumption.

Why would previous high low trigger banks interest? Give me one logical reason.

I have open lines on my chart to tell me the current price in relation to the open price, whether its above or below, that's all its function, no other assumption. The adr and other range channels tell me the volatility of the current market compared against the average range over a lookback period, no other assumptions. Both lines are used in a logical manner, no ridiculous assumptions that you find in traditional technical analysis.

You wrote this,
"(I think there was only one other place on that move you could have profited from a 50 pip short and that would have involved selling and buying at the absolute extremes of the swing)."

My question is, how do you know from technical analysis the absolute extremes?

Earlier I asked how high is a bullish swing and how low is a bearish swing? Does my question make sense and posed with purpose?

The purpose of this thread is to bring awareness to the false assumptions that retail traders interprete from technical analysis. There's no basis for those underlying assumptions. Read other members posts, and if you put on your thinking cap, you surely read their underlying assumptions. Do you question whether those assumptions make logical sense or not?

Members post their trades on here.
Do you question whether their trades reflect their posts about market structure or mechanism knowledge or not?
Or they're blabbing one thing on forum and trading another thing altogether? Arguing on forum yet when come to their real trades they do something else.

Doesn't it make logical sense that our trades reveal and represent our knowledge? Not the long theoretical essays that we write on FF? Beautiful hindsight charts don't represent our knowledge?

Retail traders repeat and regurgitate these faulty technical analysis assumptions that set the environment on forums like FF to spread like wildfire that resulted in misleading many traders. The blind leading the blind. You become the "herd" when you chose to inherit other people's assumptions. And I know your inherited knowledge by what you write in your posts. Cheers

"Hi DM, yesterday's hi lo, and yesterday's range is useless info. There's no logical reason why today will repeat yesterday's high and/or low, and why repeat yesterday's range. Yet, retail traders religiously draw such lines on their chart. That's what they learnt from technical analysis without questioning the logic behind the underlying assumption."

Ok, well it's not entirely useless as today's ADR calculation needs to know yesterday's hi lo (and therefore it's range) would you not agree?
Maybe there is a bit of confusion in our communication ... I'm not sure. I don't think I ever suggested a logical reason why today would repeat yesterday's high and low. I was merely trying to point out that with these lines being on the majority of folks charts, we can expect to see some action at them if they should come into play the following day. I don't mean that price should bounce back off them all the time, not at all.

"Why would previous high low trigger banks interest? Give me one logical reason."

Well, volume of trades would be my answer. Say, we have price approaching not just a daily low, but a monthly low. If a bank then wants to start switching from shorts to longs, wouldn't it make sense to work price past that low in order to increase trading activity (whether that's stops or new breakouts) and fill more orders?

"My question is, how do you know from technical analysis the absolute extremes?
Earlier I asked how high is a bullish swing and how low is a bearish swing? "

You don't..that was supposed to be my point.

"Members post their trades on here.
Do you question whether their trades reflect their posts about market structure or mechanism knowledge or not?
Or they're blabbing one thing on forum and trading another thing altogether? Arguing on forum yet when come to their real trades they do something else."

Hmm, no I would expect some continuity between their analysis/knowledge and their trades to be honest.

"Doesn't it make logical sense that our trades reveal and represent our knowledge? Not the long theoretical essays that we write on FF? Beautiful hindsight charts don't represent our knowledge?"

Well, I'd agree that the trades represent our knowledge, as should the long theoretical essays. Beautiful hindsight charts.....that's a more difficult one to answer. In some circumstances they can be very revealing, but I don't need to tell you the problem on FF with hindsight charts. I can give u tonight's winning Euromillions numbers, but it's too late to collect the

Regards

DM

Ps..It's late..I replied but I didn't address what you thought were my false assumptions..I'll have a think over the weekend

Read what I wrote here. I posted the links.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/14151120#post14151120

We must challenge the assumptions of technical analysis. If traders continue to accept without questioning, they will continue to do the same thing reaping the same result.

The purpose of this thread is to discuss the efficacy of technical analysis. Let's talk. Cheers

I think it fitting to use a simple way to understand all this =

"Back then", tech analysis WAS THE quantitative way to determine and discriminate re: trading and investing. These days, you people give everything all different names etc but the fundamentals are all the same. "Secret maths" is an improper way to see the world through the eyes of mathematics. Formulae describe our method of translation but cannot defeat the basic building blocks of what is there. This, for eg., is why quantum mechanics has failed to yield what was "decided upon" (If anyone cares to stop watching tv and learn something about Life) many many moons ago. The wrongful assumption is therefore, that what is thought to be "new" is automatically "better". I have worked alongside quants people and many are "smart" people but they lack the finesse to understand Life. And since money is an extension of human invention, the quality and insight you get from wrong use of knowledge always leads to the same conclusions.

If one understands "Life on planet Earth" in a thorough enough way, there is no realistic reason why a person could not see that the "toys" are different but the fundamentals have not changed. Banks do the job they were and are given, everyday. But they are not gatekeepers. They perform their tasks as many have said here. But the more important point is this, to say TA is rubbish or quants work is better, is a fallacy in itself and therefore creates its own assumptions. People simply have been bombarded with all types of petty information (for decades now) about Life, money and society. What troubles me is that people actually enjoy the disconnect between themself, money and "how Life is vs should/could be".

To me, I could use TA solely without anything else. Why? I've learned what goes on "over there". So I don't need to use quants or news or new flashy indicators or EA's etc to get the job done. It's all in my head. But it's not just a barrel of jumbled information, it all has a foundation to it. But that foundation does not stop with "the banks". Part of the problem I've seen on these sites, is this .... normal people know nothing about some things but want to get involved anyway BEFORE they have learned some things first. I could teach many about these things but much of it would fly in the face of what normal people think "is". So the roadblock is there from the beginning. Many things I have said here are not popular but I don't care about that.

I sense that normal people need to appreciate one single thing - From a societal standpoint, you are behind the eight ball. If you can face this, accept this and then choose to learn the proper ways with the proper pieces that come together to make up the entire apple pie, then even if all this trading stuff went away, you've STILL learned something real that would impact your real life. it's the same re: usual TA ideas and methods. Sometimes people must have bad experiences to give them the opportunity to wake up to themself.

As I see it, quant work is merely the "new" TA work. But specific old TA knowledge can NEVER be removed as it's directly connected to real life things and circumstances and plans and developments. People who are confused need to stop thinking as themself and see the world as money sees it. Then the different parts of society can be seen. This is why I say to create a blueprint. It's just too much information to try and stick in your head and make sense of it. But to learn a proper foundation, gives rise to a better viewing and understanding.

As to assumptions, it's really rather simple ..... just make a list of all the things you think or believe are true and real. And then be prepared to start assuming they're all wrong, plain and simple. Do this for long enough and you'll begin to see a change in your views and observations. If I wanted to con the public that the world and the markets are one way, when in fact they're another way, then bombarding them with so much info that "coincides" with what I told them initially, would be the best and most effective way to "convince" them. Why? They would be so overwhelmed they would just "go along to get along". "There's so much that lines up it MUST be true". Sound familiar??

To put it simply, your assumptions drive you into deadends. I have personally found that the assumptions we make are always directly aligned to how much we want to know the truth about something. Not "personal truth" but something more substantial. It's the same re: TA. Anything that has you use end user/digital means to gain a view or insight or tracked awareness IS T.A. Anything having you connect to the scaled up formation of society always gives a greater perspective. At this level you're now dealing with real things. The problem with static TA as with people online now, is the poor attention to what is real. People escape and they make excuses. So as I see it, the efficacy of a tool, is not up for debate, it's the PERSON who is up for debate. Tools don't make themselves.

To give honest weight to this whole discussion about TA etc, you need to distinguish between source and option. Trends of society are very good indicators for what can/may come next. But I would never blame a porno film for being the culprit when looking at the millenial trends of human and family values. Just as I would never blame a person for misreading a holy book. It's a case of poor instruction coupled with time spent on other things that distract that make things worse. People have too many options to fill their time and not enough need to do other things. You have to be careful not to be 'lynch mobbing' TA when my observations have shown most people are a long way from where they could be. It's an illusion to suggest that because tech has gotten more involved, that it automatically affects the world at large, once you get away from the surface of how things look. The promise that was made years ago, that tech would improve how we do everything has not really come to fruition IF you look at everything objectively.

TA just as with quant work, really, is a view of the same thing from a different window. You people seem to forget that movement of a market is NOT contested by the upper echelons who have more than enough money to make something happen. Another quant factor that many don't want to look at. You cannot separate real life from a market made. IF you want to challenge your current ideas then read this ....

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/14364672#post14364672

Anyway enough said.


Peter

Hi

Im assuming the demarcation line is the yellow dotted line ?

This thread has FF's two most polarising characters...and I like that . I do like both of your thought-provoking posts.
Peter, when I was reading your post above, Pink Floyd came on my playlist. "your lips move, but I can't hear what you're saying",,I had a little chuckle. Sometimes when reading your posts I do feel comfortably numb...I take in some things, but others just go over my head.

"If one understands "Life on planet Earth" in a thorough enough way, there is no realistic reason why a person could not see that the "toys" are different but the fundamentals have not changed."

I think the root problem I have with following your work is how to anchor my thinking to real life, as you keep saying. It would be very difficult for a new trader to step into this arena today (without any guiding hand) and make sense of what is truly needed and what isn't. Even though tech was not as advanced in the late 90's early noughties, it too was a period of huge change in the trading industry and I must admit I lost my way for the first few years thinking it was all about the new fancy indicator, the speed of my pc, the speed of my internet connection, the speed with which I got the very latest news releases (oh dear, but I guess the vast majority of us start that way).

I'd like to think I'm a lot less naive in trading nowadays. I'm certainly not the "this is the only way to trade brigade". If TA works for somebody then that's fine by me...same goes for volume, scalping (which I've done a lot of over the years), maths based projections, even FA.

As far as the modern world goes, I am definitely NOT someone consumed by the latest tech. I have very minimal facebook presence, no tiktok, no twitter, don't watch any reality TV (watch the odd bit of footie for braindead escapism...is that allowed?). Christ, even my daughter laughs at how uncool I am. But then again, her specialist subject is 80's music..chip off the ol' block?

So, I've gathered some assumptions over the years and I'd be interested if PC and BW indicate if my thinking is wrong. Somethings I maybe believed at first were important but now assume the opposite.....

1. The financial news channels (CNBC, Bloomberg) are of no use to me for intraday trading. The "Experts" on show have demonstrated over the years that they have no more idea if a market is going up or down than the guy in my local newsagents. Even their long term FA views are sketchy at best. If they make bad calls it's probably a case of "yeah sorry, I'm not able to appear on your "Trading Experts" segment this week..I'm actually tied up golfing for the next 2 months".

2. Financial breaking news announcements. I believe these are there to entice trading activity. Why not just release all the data on a Sunday night before markets open for the week? That would be oh so boring for the week ahead. Much better to release in pre-market and half an hour after US start....even the big bell ringing at market start, it's like the start of horse race ..with a big potential jackpot approaching in 30 mins. They learned a lot from Vegas I think, in how to glamourize trading with fancy sounds and colours.

3. Past data IS important. When scalping I really didn't look at the charts outside of the current day window....to be honest, I didn't even pay much attention to the DOL line either, and when I did I didn't find it made much difference to MY profitability. Nowadays, I am looking for longer trades (in terms of pips) so it makes sense that I "zoom out" on the chart more. Of course, past data also gives us an idea of an instrument's likely volatility.

4. Using limit orders is very useful, especially for scaling in and out of trades. This is actually the HARDEST of all things to adjust to for me. Doing years of short term market order scalps has no doubt conditioned my brain. It's a very nasty drug habit to try and ditch.

5. The old boys of trading will be superseeded by the new tech whizz kids..firmly believed that back in the days of the tech pump n dump. Turned out the old boys sucked them all in in a buying frenzy and spat them all out. When was it cheap to buy back in? 20% fall? 50% fall? 90% fall? surely can't lose money on a 90% off stock? These young tech buyers (myself included) had never experienced a rapid market fall and therefore had no idea how to handle it..rabbit in the headlights. My assumption from this was like the old saying "you can fool some people some of the time etc" and I think a market has to have a nice long period of growth and build confidence before it pulls the rug from under the rug, to preferably a new breed of young trader who has not witnessed a market crash before. The current Bitcoin craze kind of reminds me of the tech crunch. If fiat currencies are going to be moving towards their own digital currency, why the hell will they "allow" an unregulated rival coin to exist? Anyway, for me to take a long or short on it would be pure gambling as I fully admit I do not know enough about that to make an educated decision.

EDIT - I guess point 5 was more geared towards stocks and Indices with an inherent upwards bias... Forex is the price of one instrument against another so any long term upward bias isn't as pronounced.

6. Markets will push prices to cause maximum pain to the maximum number or traders. To begin with, in scalping I didn't really pay much attention to how the market was moving (it was mainly momentum scalps away from an area I perceived as a good stopping point). It makes sense (since everybody is looking at charts) to take price to areas where a majority or traders will start to feel very uncomfortable and start to question their analysis.

7. An arsenal of the latest high-tech equipment does not make one a better or more profitable trader. Flawed logic is flawed logic.


I'd be interested to hear if u think that any of my assumptions are fundamentally flawed..I'm trying to go back here and start right at the beginning, so that I can make that connection between trading and "real life" as u put it.


"The purpose of this thread is to discuss the efficacy of technical analysis"

BW, I'm sorry if I've kind of derailed the purpose of the thread with my previous posts. You and Peter have a similar posting style. I think the problem is that 99.9% of folk on FF (myself included) can't work out exactly what the 2 of you are trying to convey to us, so the repetitive posts we see will keep coming until we make a breakthrough.

I will read the posts u linked to on the above post and see if there's anything useful I can add to the discussion on the efficacy of TA.

Regards
Dm

have a good weekend all

I'll put it this way, if you execute a buy trade and you don't know where the probable extreme bottom, and you don't know banks intent to move towards north target, then you're trading blind. When you write you don't know you just confirm your blindness that I wrote about. Check my post history.

Btw you are correct with your answer about yourself. But your assumption about other traders is open to discussion. Whether other traders know or don't has no relation to you. So why mention.
(I find it strange you confess you don't know, nobody know. Yet you fail to see that technical analysis is useless in this aspect.)

Let me repeat, you executed a long trade without knowing where the support is, and you don't know where the banks intent to send price to. That's blind trading to ME. Don't you think so?

I ring the alarm bells on FF that technical analysis offer nothing in both this aspect. I repeated myself a thousand times in my posts on FF. This is my message that's remained consistent. How long before FF members realise this fact? When do FF members feel comfortable to have a conversation about a difficult controversial technical subject with no reference to anyone? Cheers

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/14150694#post14150694

Hold on a minute. ANY long trade I execute, REGARDLESS of the TF, ofc I know where my cut-off point is..otherwise we go down the rabbit hole of martingales and ever-increasing drawdown. I'm telling you my assumptions, but at the same time you are making an assumption about me which I have to tell you is wrong too. I may not know the "banks intent" or where you may have calculated support for that trade to be, but that does NOT mean I have just enter a trade blind as you put it. Blind to your trading methods, maybe.