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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #4,181
  • May 9, 2007 12:50am May 9, 2007 12:50am
Quoting DGC
I'm with MizZu... I can't ignore the downtrend line that started on 5/1.. many people are expecting another rise and I think there may at least be room to run to the 89SMA, but I'd rather wait for TL penetration (and watch for a tail) before committing.

The price is squeezing down into a wedge, so we should be prepared for a breakout in the next 24 - 48 hours, but which way? This is often a continuation pattern, which would argue for an upside move, but these breakouts very often occur to the 'wrong side' first, then correct back to the expected direction. If that happens, we could see a downward spike from the false breakout before the real move to a new high. I'll wait to see if that develops before making any trades on this pair....
I was thinking the same as well. First the downside and then the upside is what I was thinking. I would wait for a larger candle before going long.
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #4,182
  • May 9, 2007 12:53am May 9, 2007 12:53am
By the way, thanks for that spreadsheet, ttitto - very useful.
Gone to a better place
  • #4,183
  • May 9, 2007 1:42am May 9, 2007 1:42am
Quoting DGC
these breakouts very often occur to the 'wrong side' first, then correct back to the expected direction. If that happens, we could see a downward spike from the false breakout before the real move to a new high. I'll wait to see if that develops before making any trades on this pair....
Yep, all the big boys taking stops out... Like the triangle/pennant on EURCHF right now... I went long at 1.6492, anticipating a long TC. However, pips down about 10 right now, and I'm hoping it's just a brief visit below before it heads up. Keeping a tight stop because I'm not overly confident.
  • #4,184
  • Edited 1:53am May 9, 2007 1:50am | Edited 1:53am
Very nice observations on patterns...especially cable getting squeezed...and you are all right in thinking directional move will be determined in the next 24 -48 hours! There are 3 rate decisions coming up!!

This afternoon we have the fed....expect there to be movement across all pairs...which way depends on how the statement reads (or if we get a surprise)....

Thursday morning we get Bank of England rate decision...and that will really move the pound either up or down depending on what they do....if no rate increase, the pound will drop like a stone...if .50 bp it will rise like the moon...

USD/CHF will be pulled this way and that from the announcements...and I haven't even hit on the ECB (if Trichet uses "strongly viligiant" expect USD/CHF to go down).

I too am short on swissie. I don't like the trade....and I still don't have a MACD signal either on 4 hour or 1 hour. It was taken yesterday, not based on 4 hour...but only on rejection of the 1.2200 level. I'm concerned because the pair has not moved out of consolidation phase, has not closed with a price below the last Inside Top Low, and has hovered around 1.2180 range. The only thing positive is I shorted it at 1.2193. Have to admit I am glad to see a little movement now...and that price is no longer sitting right on top of the 365;but I really think the market would like to spike this pair through 1.2211 level and grab stops (my stop is at 1.2235)....we shall see.

If you took the short, be aware, it was strictly on TL rejection and no secondary confirmation has been given by the MACD system that a short was to be initiated yet (maybe some of you have it now...my current candle will possibly give signal when it closes in a few hours...). My target is 1.2140, but I will close some lots soon for partial profit and let the rest run at BE and some will be left w/current stop....that way I won't lose much if price does spike. Again, be aware this is a highly risky trade that could go either way after 2:15 PM EST -- don't expect much before then.

Be careful trading tonight...lots of heavy event risk to the market that can be the force behind a change in trend......

Best wishes for happy and profitable trades,
Pips
  • #4,185
  • May 9, 2007 2:02am May 9, 2007 2:02am
Ok, here's my trade today based on 4H MACD by Philip Nell (btw, thx for u'r hard work ) :

Short Usd Chf @ 1.2172.
TP = 1.2155.

hope my TP executed, coz maybe it will bounce back again.
good luck everybody
  • #4,186
  • May 9, 2007 2:12am May 9, 2007 2:12am
Quoting MizZu_X7
Ok, here's my trade today based on 4H MACD by Philip Nell (btw, thx for u'r hard work ) :

Short Usd Chf @ 1.2172.
TP = 1.2155.

hope my TP executed, coz maybe it will bounce back again.
good luck everybody
Hi MizZu,

Where is your stop?
  • #4,187
  • Edited 6:41am May 9, 2007 2:21am | Edited 6:41am
here's a copy of my chart....possible RT forming...current candle not closed...last 2 bars were = . Hourly gave no short entry, but could be giving 0 line rejection or 0 line cross w/current candle. Price still has not managed to close below recent inside top low.....(normally this indicates price failure and further declines if price closes below level, which is ~ 1.2155 and has been on my chart for a long long time....). Instead, it looks to be acting as support....sure it has to do w/profit taking ahead of FED....and ahead of ECB....Again, I wish I had waited for MACD..... So....It makes my heart sing to hear that people w/current closes have confirmation : ) Either way...this trade is a bit of a gamble based on fundamental (Fed will not be hawkish)...but def. this pair is trying to figure out if it wants to start moving up, or continue ranging....we shall see....

This is the 4 hour chart....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF0509074hr.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #4,188
  • Edited 3:18am May 9, 2007 3:18am | Edited 3:18am
I see UCHF actually as bullish. attached a daily chart to show resistance line broken and now tested. I am waiting for bullish TC MACD signal.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily UCHF 090507 0813.jpg Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4H MACD UCHF 090507 0813.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #4,189
  • May 9, 2007 4:00am May 9, 2007 4:00am
For me I'd rather stay on the sideline. There's no clear direction as to where the market is going. I'd let the news come by let the market decide where it would want to go. That's the time I will take my ride.
  • #4,190
  • May 9, 2007 4:07am May 9, 2007 4:07am
From the way the candle bars (G/U, E/U, U/C) look... many have taken both a short & long position at the same time (hedging)...
  • #4,191
  • May 9, 2007 4:24am May 9, 2007 4:24am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi MizZu,

Where is your stop?
My stop @ 1.2195 ...

yeah i know, on daily charts it's a bullish trend, i just want to take a small profit from the pullback . well, i'm ready if i got stopped

but when the price bounce back and go up of course i'll prepare for Long...
hope everything is right
  • #4,192
  • May 9, 2007 4:40am May 9, 2007 4:40am
4-hr and day charts not so bullish looking for bar to open below line on 4 hr chart, just my thoughts have a great day.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf 5-9-07.jpg Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: day chf.jpg Size: 27 KB
  • #4,193
  • Edited 7:17am May 9, 2007 6:38am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting MizZu_X7
hai tamkras,

about Gbp/Chf i see RB signal, but i didn't take it. it's because when i see daily chart, the price has bounce back from 2.4145. so the daily trend is up, i don't want to trade against the trend. so i'll wait the price pull back first, then if there's buy confirmation on MACD, then i'll take it ...

btw good luck with u'r trading tamkras ...
sorry for my english, hope u understand
Great observation, Miz. Market giveth, market taketh. Price bounced off the 2.4200 level and now I am in negative territory, minus 30. Hope I will survive through the rate decisions this week. Anyone took long usd/cad? The pair paralyzed me for some time and was hesitant to enter.

Edit: I have not been stopped out yet from short gb/chf. Still holding my short...
  • #4,194
  • May 9, 2007 6:43am May 9, 2007 6:43am
Quoting ttitto
I see UCHF actually as bullish. attached a daily chart to show resistance line broken and now tested. I am waiting for bullish TC MACD signal.
hi ttitto,

you do a very nice job with your trades and charts...I have been admiring your posts for a while now.

Happy trading,

Pips
  • #4,195
  • May 9, 2007 6:52am May 9, 2007 6:52am
Quoting tamkras
Anyone took long usd/cad? The pair paralyzed me for some time and was hesitant to enter.
Waiting to go short on this. Hopefully the trigger will come after the interest rate release.
Gone to a better place
  • #4,196
  • May 9, 2007 6:53am May 9, 2007 6:53am
See how we all see something differently on daily charts...I'm neither bullish or bearish...even though I have a short open. The lower thick blue res. line goes back to 2005 and has been on my chart for over a year. The thick blue line above goes back to sept. 2006. The green dashed line is the 89. Notice that price has broken out of a triangle, but has not closed above resistance yet......interesting,eh? Tells me that the market is def. waiting for both FED and ECB to decide on course of action (wonder if the 89 will be tagged either way?....). Also, if you look back at past posts, you will see that the TL's have not been changed for this post. (the uptrend line was the only line added somewhat recently). The pair is also overbought per stochs...that is why the candle is red....doesn't mean anything. Just a note to why candle color is red w/dot above it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF050907daily.jpg Size: 100 KB
  • #4,197
  • Edited 7:24am May 9, 2007 6:58am | Edited 7:24am
Quoting pips4uandme
hi ttitto,

you do a very nice job with your trades and charts...I have been admiring your posts for a while now.

Happy trading,

Pips
Thanks pips,
I am just trying to maintain the good spirit of this thread just like Phillip makes it since the beginning.

I looked at my UCHF chart again but can not find any reason to draw that blue channel line in the middle that you have.
  • #4,198
  • May 9, 2007 7:58am May 9, 2007 7:58am
Quoting smikester
Waiting to go short on this. Hopefully the trigger will come after the interest rate release.
yup, me too. waiting to go short on UsdCad. waiting 4H confirmed, then i'll enter on 1H if confirmed too

good luck ..

... waiting ... waiting ... waiting ...
  • #4,199
  • Edited 8:26am May 9, 2007 8:21am | Edited 8:26am
re USD/CAD:

I saw this falling so fast I broke my rules and jumped on board. Been lucky so far.


(GBP broken important trend line just now - so I suppose that will affect USD)
Gone to a better place
  • #4,200
  • May 9, 2007 8:26am May 9, 2007 8:26am
Quoting MizZu_X7
Ok, here's my trade today based on 4H MACD by Philip Nell (btw, thx for u'r hard work ) :

Short Usd Chf @ 1.2172.
TP = 1.2155.

hope my TP executed, coz maybe it will bounce back again.
good luck everybody
huuuuaaaahhh ... finaly, my TP executed. only + 17 pips from this UChf. but not bad now i'm waiting for my Euro. buy @ 1.3540 ....

good luck everyone ...
semangat
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