Disliked{quote} //---- hey ot...... you are without a doubt correct..... just to be clear, the chart with numbers and colors is only counting bars since last signal..... such as if the alma had been rising but today it fell, there would be a red 0.... if it continued to fall tomorrow, it's count would increase to a red 1...... and so on...... your suggestion of buying when below 0 by a long shot, that is often preferable...... i've done a lot of work on, loosely speaking, "reversing" trades and extreme values....... in a strong downtrend, selling every...Ignored
- #181
- Edited 7:45pm Mar 7, 2023 7:18pm | Edited 7:45pm
- Joined Aug 2018 | Status: Trader | 7,846 Posts
- #182
- Mar 7, 2023 8:54pm Mar 7, 2023 8:54pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,416 Posts
there are alerting indicators involved or there are pending orders at work or you say that you don't trade gbp crosses while they appear in your sample statement
on the subject of a thread, i have done that several times.... doesn't seem to work out.....
bunch of charts and stuff coming your way tonite..... some might be interesting.....
on the gbp crosses, did i say we did not trade them..... if so, that was an error on my part..... the margin required makes them a poor choice..... for that cost reason, my preference is to avoid them...... we do trade them when they are the best game in town....... but for sure not my preference......
the first chart below has a script that totals all peyton's trades profit and loss..... that is peytons from febuary this year to now...... my prediction, march will be the same or better.....
the second chart shows the margin required for 0.01 lot....... look at the jpy group....... they all pay 7 cents a pip for a 0.01 trade....... the next row is the margin required for that same 0.01 trade..... see the nzdjpy only requires 12$..... but the gbpjpy requires 24$..... double the margin required for the same pip return..... the nzdjpy effective return is twice the gbpjpy.....
compare the gbp crosses....... they are not cost effective, so my preference is to avoid them...... my preference is redheads..... but i married a blond..... don't always get my wishes......
third chart shows those gbpusd trades...... in one of the links i've posted in this thread can be seen the 'boxed fib trades'...... those are pending orders placed in advance.....from support to resistance using fibanacia spacing, roughly...... you can clearly see them in that chart.....
the daily trend is down...... selling the 240 retraces works as seen.....
or at least till it doesn't......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
- #183
- Mar 7, 2023 10:28pm Mar 7, 2023 10:28pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,416 Posts
You say trade size is ridiculously small. Does it mean there is a million bucks in the account then and making 2k/mo?
there is no way i'd have a million of personal money in a forex account....... the risk is to great......
the first chart below is another way to look at the same thing...... profit and lass broken down by lot size...... that 2 mini lot order was a fat finger quickly closed when noticed...... should have been 0.02 .......
you can see her average trade size is 0.03 lots..... and average pips per trade is 40..... would not have thought it was that high......
the second chart shows the atr for the pairs and timeframes...... the lime row is the 240...... the average is about 40 pips....
the third chart is an example of the boxed fib trades from long ago...... that works best in a daily downtrend.....
you should be able to trade far more than 1/2 standard lot on 10k account with 50 to 1 leverage......
try just 1 demo trade a day.... 0.01 size..... 30 pip target...... close it at 3:45 est..... don't focus on money......
focus on no losses......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
- #184
- Mar 7, 2023 10:51pm Mar 7, 2023 10:51pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,416 Posts
Is there a huge dd you are holding there acting as a carry trade?
actually the opposite...... no huge draw down and no carry trade...... that might change....... beginning today......
in 2012 the usdjpy was 78...... doomers and gloomers ran rampant on forex factory......
so on enivids site, i proposed buying at 78 and selling at 148...... quite a stretch....... called that thread , usdjpy's mount fugi......
what goes up, often comes down........ peyton will start selling the usdjpy......
therein lies the drawdown potential...... it is clearly countertrend......
perhaps as many as 300 trades, 0.01 size...... those will stand long term....... short term but larger size trades will pay for the draw down..... the negative swap is no concern.....
the larger the draw down the better......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
- #185
- Mar 8, 2023 12:14am Mar 8, 2023 12:14am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,416 Posts
let me reply here because pm's don't allow charts.......
first, think of how support/resistance or supply/demand are derived...... the most popular and perhaps the only way is the use of the zigzag.....
zigzags point to the last know peak or trough in their settings...... the chart below is an example..... using 4 zigzags gives better picture......
those peaks and troughs point to the support/resistance or supply/demand that has not been broken thru...... once price breaks though, the zigzag repaints and that level vanishes.....
fibonacci retracement/extensions can be used as targets.....
on the math part....... if i were to send forty 0.01 trades in at the same time, the ticket numbers stack on top or within a few pips..... so how can anyone tell how many i really sent...... if all 40 hit their profit target and i posted screen shot showing only 5, who would know there were 35 others.....
maybe the poster does not show all 40 out of humility..... who knows.....
if he by chance posts his stoploss with total $ amount loss we can do the math backwards...... such as, if my gbpusd stoploss is 10 pips and the dollar value of that loss is a -30,000$....... how many lots did i send in.....
or, if my gbpusd profit target is 20 pips and the dollar value is a +130,000 how many lots did i send in......
that kind of visibility might change......
some mention things like demo....... but does it really matter..... if the accuracy and consistency are there, that should be enough.....
that supply and demand zones indicator i posted in this thread really needs to be rewritten.... but place it on a gbpusd chart and turn the alerts on...... you'll see.....
just keep that vanishing act in mind......h
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first, think of how support/resistance or supply/demand are derived...... the most popular and perhaps the only way is the use of the zigzag.....
zigzags point to the last know peak or trough in their settings...... the chart below is an example..... using 4 zigzags gives better picture......
those peaks and troughs point to the support/resistance or supply/demand that has not been broken thru...... once price breaks though, the zigzag repaints and that level vanishes.....
fibonacci retracement/extensions can be used as targets.....
on the math part....... if i were to send forty 0.01 trades in at the same time, the ticket numbers stack on top or within a few pips..... so how can anyone tell how many i really sent...... if all 40 hit their profit target and i posted screen shot showing only 5, who would know there were 35 others.....
maybe the poster does not show all 40 out of humility..... who knows.....
if he by chance posts his stoploss with total $ amount loss we can do the math backwards...... such as, if my gbpusd stoploss is 10 pips and the dollar value of that loss is a -30,000$....... how many lots did i send in.....
or, if my gbpusd profit target is 20 pips and the dollar value is a +130,000 how many lots did i send in......
that kind of visibility might change......
some mention things like demo....... but does it really matter..... if the accuracy and consistency are there, that should be enough.....
that supply and demand zones indicator i posted in this thread really needs to be rewritten.... but place it on a gbpusd chart and turn the alerts on...... you'll see.....
just keep that vanishing act in mind......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
- #186
- Mar 8, 2023 2:24am Mar 8, 2023 2:24am
Thank you for replying to OTs probing posts. 
I have followed your posts on several forums for a long time and have found you to be a genuine person/trader with much knowledge.
Peytons and the other girls indicators certainly work for manual trading on many time frames.Just follow the colours so simple so effective. If a 5yo can do it why can't most traders? .....We know better!
If you can out smart a feral deer/hog then probing Q's would be a breeze
Just a hayseed, yeah sure, with a brain the size of the planet.
The EA's make life much easier but only with your understanding.
Regards
lpp
I have followed your posts on several forums for a long time and have found you to be a genuine person/trader with much knowledge.Peytons and the other girls indicators certainly work for manual trading on many time frames.Just follow the colours so simple so effective. If a 5yo can do it why can't most traders? .....We know better!
If you can out smart a feral deer/hog then probing Q's would be a breeze
Just a hayseed, yeah sure, with a brain the size of the planet.
The EA's make life much easier but only with your understanding.
Regards
lpp
I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact..... Elon Musk
- #189
- Mar 9, 2023 6:01am Mar 9, 2023 6:01am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,416 Posts
You/payton are incredibly organized.
probably less than it appears..... lol....
needed the usdjpy to go higher..... it did not...... so cashed out.....
the audusd and nzdusd have some of the lowest margin required..... 12$ for a 0.01 lot..... pays 10 cents a pip...... so 12 pips gives you 10% on your money......
both are in a daily trend, or so it appears to me...... it also appears, to me, there should be a 60, and 240 temporary countertrend to the daily.....
this is were those 'boxed fib' trades come in..... pending sell limits in this case..... the price could easily move up to the daily yellow ma, 8 periods..... red is the 55.....
it would be far more precise and a less drawdownish way to wait for a 240 zigzag up leg first..... then place the sell limits.......
no hurry...... no worry.....h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
- #190
- Edited 9:50am Mar 9, 2023 9:16am | Edited 9:50am
- Joined Aug 2018 | Status: Trader | 7,846 Posts
{quote} //----- probably less than it appears..... lol.... needed the usdjpy to go higher..... it did not...... so cashed out..... the audusd and nzdusd have some of the lowest margin required..... 12$ for a 0.01 lot..... pays 10 cents a pip...... so 12 pips gives you 10% on your money...... both are in a daily trend, or so it appears to me...... it also appears, to me, there should be a 60, and 240 temporary countertrend to the daily..... this is were those 'boxed fib' trades come in..... pending sell limits in this case..... the price could easily...
30 trades added to get out of one.
Been there done that.
- #191
- Mar 9, 2023 7:56pm Mar 9, 2023 7:56pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,416 Posts
30 trades added to get out of one. Been there done that.
it only appears that way...... just a bunch of pending orders...... set and forget...... one of'em has to be first......
aud and nzd refuse to play ball..... need then to rise 100 pips...... if not, fixin to move to another playground......
if it looks like a lazy way to trade, it's because it's a lazy to trade........h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
That's a bit of draw down on nzdusd. 
{quote} //----- it only appears that way...... just a bunch of pending orders...... set and forget...... one of'em has to be first...... aud and nzd refuse to play ball..... need then to rise 100 pips...... if not, fixin to move to another playground...... if it looks like a lazy way to trade, it's because it's a lazy to trade........h //------ {image} //----- {image}
- #193
- Mar 15, 2023 6:07am Mar 15, 2023 6:07am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,416 Posts
That's a bit of draw down on nzdusd.
yes..... not as much as it would appear in percentage terms..... the small lot size keeps things within reason.....
the recent bank troubles sent things against us briefly..... there is a benefit to that.....
in $ terms, some of the accounts trade 10 or 20 times peyton's 0.01..... those had a much larger $ amount but again, the amount is minor compared to the balance.....
our goals are small.... as example, if i attempt to gain 10% on 10k in a month, i am more than willing to lose 10%.....
and do at times......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
- #194
- Mar 16, 2023 4:00am Mar 16, 2023 4:00am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 2,586 Posts
EURUSD .. M1 ... simple chart formation
See what was possible if you take also a more "late" entry (here at point 2) and target 1:1 (here point 4).
See what was possible if you take also a more "late" entry (here at point 2) and target 1:1 (here point 4).
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
- #195
- Mar 29, 2023 2:52pm Mar 29, 2023 2:52pm
- | Joined May 2009 | Status: lost in the void | 2,977 Posts
- #198
- Last Post: Edited 9:55am Jul 16, 2023 9:27am | Edited 9:55am
Trend following system is dead. There is no black and white in this thread....just different shades of grey. I believe that the era of trend following is over unless there is a particular imbalance in a market that overrides everything else. Another exception would be if we were to enter a major inflationary or deflationary environment. In other words, unless there is some very powerful force that can overwhelm everything else. The markets have changed during the past five to ten years because professional money managers now account for a much greater...
1 Day EUR/USD
1 Hour EUR/USD
5 Min EUR/USD
PS: Really do love when the "big traders" hop on on any fresh thread and soil it with screen shots of amazing and totally not fake Meta Trader earnings. Or is this the latest and greatest push from the merchants here to prop up the fading business of selling shovels and pickaxes to would be gold diggers?