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The Swamp

  • #107,521
  • Mar 13, 2023 8:14pm Mar 13, 2023 8:14pm
Last Friday biden told cpi is in good shape.. did he mean in good shape or bad shape lol..
  • #107,522
  • Mar 14, 2023 12:26am Mar 14, 2023 12:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} This window is still here, but there is an algo at 1.07
The year close 1.0694 atm is acting like support off 1.0748. It may bounce here. Or it may need 1.0636/38x again. I small window for a long may be 1.0636/39 or now at 0694ish
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  • #107,523
  • Mar 14, 2023 12:34am Mar 14, 2023 12:34am
[quote=gatorinla;14358368]
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 30 min is very close at 0651. The 1h support about 1.0640. Friday's gap about 1.0638.2. That may be worth a shot. The Day 20 sma at 1.0629 may hold it. Sometimes gap fills bounce$run
The window here. At the attraction to 1.0636/38. From 1.0748 is 110 pips. Below 0631 with a day close may be a down trend start -110 pips.
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  • #107,524
  • Mar 14, 2023 1:26am Mar 14, 2023 1:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1.0748 testing. This may slip some. This is a day close bulls need above to break. That week algo is 1.0805/slip.
Bulls didnt get this 0748+ close yesterday. Its key for bulls to not close below 1.0630 (dynamic) today. Losing it and 1.0694 after being above is rejection. The week (0587dynamic) is a little higher than last week's. 12 h 1.0620 dynamic. Closing a day/12 below 1.0630/20. May lead to last week's low testing.

Its not likely pa will run to -1.0548 to close today. If pa strongly takes out 1.0620/30. After not taking 1.0748, and losing 1.0694/1.07. It opens up 1.0548 some. Not many 182 pip day runs. If the next h being a 12h is below 1.0694. It gives a little more chance for more down.
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  • #107,525
  • Mar 14, 2023 1:41am Mar 14, 2023 1:41am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bulls didnt get this 0748+ close yesterday. Its key for bulls to not close below 1.0630 (dynamic) today. Losing it and 1.0694 after being above is rejection. The week (0587dynamic) is a little higher than last week's. 12 h 1.0620 dynamic. Closing a day/12 below 1.0630/20. May lead to last week's low testing. Its not likely pa will run to -1.0548 to close today. If pa strongly takes out 1.0620/30. After not taking 1.0748, and losing 1.0694/1.07. It opens up 1.0548 some. Not many 182 pip day runs. If the next h being a 12h is below 1.0694....
Its been a while since closing a week above. PA being bullish it needs to show strength.
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  • #107,526
  • Mar 14, 2023 2:07am Mar 14, 2023 2:07am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its been a while since closing a week above. PA being bullish it needs to show strength. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEvi_wY53Zo {image}
12 h close didnt lose 1.0694.
I left the pending long 1.0636/39. It may not make it there. The 12 close looked positive for it to hold.
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  • #107,527
  • Mar 14, 2023 2:13am Mar 14, 2023 2:13am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 12 h close didnt lose 1.0694. I left the pending long 1.0636/39. It may not make it there. The 12 close looked positive for it to hold. {image}
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  • #107,528
  • Mar 14, 2023 2:37am Mar 14, 2023 2:37am
Quoting Boulder
{image}
I need to see a few of these before they die.. We have many bands at a concert.
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  • #107,529
  • Mar 14, 2023 3:27am Mar 14, 2023 3:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bulls didnt get this 0748+ close yesterday. Its key for bulls to not close below 1.0630 (dynamic) today. Losing it and 1.0694 after being above is rejection. The week (0587dynamic) is a little higher than last week's. 12 h 1.0620 dynamic. Closing a day/12 below 1.0630/20. May lead to last week's low testing. Its not likely pa will run to -1.0548 to close today. If pa strongly takes out 1.0620/30. After not taking 1.0748, and losing 1.0694/1.07. It opens up 1.0548 some. Not many 182 pip day runs. If the next h being a 12h is below 1.0694....
If inflation runs hot later. The chance for -1.0548 would return. It has bunch of support to block it. If it managed to close below 1.0548 today. It would put pressure on lower. The 12h closed above 1.0694 bull side. A little hot inflation may get to 1.0638/28 ish. Some support there. Things look bullish. Less inflation favors bulls. Depending on what the news does.. Regardless 1.0748 needs a day close above. If pa ran to 1.0805 week algo, then closed the day below 1.0748. That may be a top. It would still have be followed with closes below 1.0694 LL etc.
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  • #107,530
  • Mar 14, 2023 6:47am Mar 14, 2023 6:47am
A little range may be forming 1.07ish/48ish
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  • #107,531
  • Mar 14, 2023 7:17am Mar 14, 2023 7:17am
Quoting gatorinla
A little range may be forming 1.07ish/48ish
1.0696 1.0748 may do this all day before the new inflation news tomorrow. 50ish pips
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  • #107,532
  • Mar 14, 2023 7:28am Mar 14, 2023 7:28am
Almost 250 pips here on full runs. No news for another 23hs may yield a few more runs.
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  • #107,533
  • Mar 14, 2023 11:26am Mar 14, 2023 11:26am
Quoting gatorinla
Almost 250 pips here on full runs. No news for another 23hs may yield a few more runs. {image}
If taking the range. It may be time to look for the exit.

If trend trading, you want 1.0748 to break. You want a day close above 1.0749.
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  • #107,534
  • Mar 14, 2023 11:32am Mar 14, 2023 11:32am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If taking the range. It may be time to look for the exit. If trend trading, you want 1.0748 to break. You want a day close above 1.0749. {image}
I took mine at 45. Looking to enter again s now.
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  • #107,535
  • Edited 11:50am Mar 14, 2023 11:35am | Edited 11:50am
s pending missed ATM
See chart.. At 100%, 1.0748 the s/l is about 10% of the tp at. 1 risk to 10 reward
I have the entry a few pips lower. It gives s/l closer to 14% instead of a 10% s/l. Making a 1 risk to 7 reward.
Since we have news coming. With 1.0748 R. I look to trade the range.
Making 1 run covers the s/l+. So far its made almost 6 runs. If i can make 86% of those. Its about 14 to 86 R/R
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  • #107,536
  • Mar 14, 2023 12:02pm Mar 14, 2023 12:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
s pending missed ATM See chart.. At 100%, 1.0748 the s/l is about 10% of the tp at. 1 risk to 10 reward I have the entry a few pips lower. It gives s/l closer to 14% instead of a 10% s/l. Making a 1 risk to 7 reward. Since we have news coming. With 1.0748 R. I look to trade the range. Making 1 run covers the s/l+. So far its made almost 6 runs. If i can make 86% of those. Its about 14 to 86 R/R {image} {image}
pending in
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  • #107,537
  • Mar 14, 2023 12:09pm Mar 14, 2023 12:09pm
I could close 1/2 here at the 25% mark. B.E. stops to make the rest of the trade free +.

I mentioned 1.0748. I also think bulls want that yellow line at 1.0736.2 today. The last time here that was the Bull/Bear balance point. It happens to be 75% too on this range. 25% on the way down. Pa will not reach 1.0548.8 today w/o a meteor strike. So I want to see if it can take 1.0732
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  • #107,538
  • Mar 14, 2023 12:28pm Mar 14, 2023 12:28pm
PS. this is counter trend. The trade has nothing to do with the trend. Its strictly R/R. That gives a calculated bias to a range before news. The bias to the reward verse risk being sufficient. Nothing more. For it to work the range needs to stay between 2 points 1.0694 and 1.0748. It has a 10% of that range forgiveness. More toward the bullish side
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  • #107,539
  • Mar 14, 2023 12:40pm Mar 14, 2023 12:40pm
7? We will see.
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  • #107,540
  • Mar 14, 2023 1:51pm Mar 14, 2023 1:51pm
"
The Pentagon has accused Russian pilots of acting in an "uncommon, unfortunate and unsafe" way after officials said a Russia fighter jet had collided with an American Reaper drone. The incident happened over the Black Sea to the south of Ukraine in international airspace. Pentagon press secretary Pat Ryder said the drone's operators were forced to crash it following the collision because the damage to the MQ-9's propeller made it uncontrollable. Asked whether the drone was flying near Ukraine, he has stressed it was "well clear of any territory in Ukraine".

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