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The Swamp

  • #107,501
  • Mar 13, 2023 6:02am Mar 13, 2023 6:02am
[quote=gatorinla;14358345]
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It took back 1/2. Hard 15 min 0657. I set a pending on the 5m with a small window 1.0695/1.0703. I could also have bought with a stop below 0657.
This 5m stop would likely not work.. The algo at 1.0703/04 now may make it go higher 1.0703x/slip... But it may still close below 1.0699, and fall to the 1.063x gap. The 15 min long would have worked. L fix may close that gap
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,502
  • Edited 6:49am Mar 13, 2023 6:13am | Edited 6:49am
My bad.. this is the L fix hour. I forgot about DLST
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,503
  • Mar 13, 2023 6:19am Mar 13, 2023 6:19am
1.0703/slip algo completed.. If it goes up now or not.. i dont know. I left a pending above 1.0632. Backed with some day support 1.062x.. That gap on a bullish bounce I target 1.0805. 1.0805 regardless with pa closing above 1.07.
15m has some r at 0723 and 32 close wise
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,504
  • Mar 13, 2023 6:38am Mar 13, 2023 6:38am
It broke the 15 min support a few hours ago above that gap. I was hoping the 15 min R would hold it off, this time. To push it down to the gap. The gap is just a close. Its last weeks close. Closes are often retested. Sometimes they become S/R.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,505
  • Mar 13, 2023 6:51am Mar 13, 2023 6:51am
Quoting gatorinla
My bad.. this is the L fix hour. I forgot about DLST
The wrong side of the hour. L fix could push it to gap.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,506
  • Mar 13, 2023 8:18am Mar 13, 2023 8:18am
Somewhere in the 1.0630/38x window. I look for a long. But it may not come
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,507
  • Mar 13, 2023 8:26am Mar 13, 2023 8:26am
[quote=Boulder;14358203]
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Just woke up.. I am waiting to short this ...
The FED alone can not gaurantee deposits of more than 250K. Legislation would need to be done. Legislation is not a done deal. This could get real fast.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,508
  • Mar 13, 2023 9:10am Mar 13, 2023 9:10am
Bulls want a day close above 1.0694/1.07. Also 1.0748 has some R value. What the bank situation brings can still add some uncertainty/volatility. What's next? Will deposits be guaranteed to foreigners at taxpayers cost? Not doubt some unknowns can develop. Not everything has been thought through politically.

On one hand the FED is raising. On the other hand the raising causes/helps more banks fail. This is a cluster phuck.. "We need to raise to ease inflation, but we will bail your out". This like wiping your friends ass before you poop.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,509
  • Mar 13, 2023 10:16am Mar 13, 2023 10:16am
Quoting gatorinla
Bulls want a day close above 1.0694/1.07. Also 1.0748 has some R value. What the bank situation brings can still add some uncertainty/volatility. What's next? Will deposits be guaranteed to foreigners at taxpayers cost? Not doubt some unknowns can develop. Not everything has been thought through politically. On one hand the FED is raising. On the other hand the raising causes/helps more banks fail. This is a cluster phuck.. "We need to raise to ease inflation, but we will bail your out". This like wiping your friends ass before you poop.
1.0748 testing. This may slip some. This is a day close bulls need above to break. That week algo is 1.0805/slip.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,510
  • Mar 13, 2023 10:54am Mar 13, 2023 10:54am
Lot of activity in NASDAQ trading halts today. 5, 10, 15 minutes. Sometimes they halt, resume, then halt again. Most of the halts are banks. Not familiar with this process, but seems a tad concerning.
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Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
  • #107,511
  • Mar 13, 2023 11:04am Mar 13, 2023 11:04am
The situation with U.S. banks is hurting the USD atm. Watching CNBC atm. A lot of the guest and commentators. Are talking about the FED may not be able to raise much more. I dont hear anyone talking about comparisons. If this banking situation stops the FED from raising. It could cause inflation to run much higher. The "comparisons" I speak of being. Core inflation is higher in Europe already. More run away core inflation in the U.S. May be amplified in other places with higher inflation. Those countries may slow product demand. That may do the opposite of today's move. Mostly because the higher cost for energy in Europe comparably.

A bank closing in America. May stop a widget purchase in Europe. That causes a less labor need in China to build widgets. Made with a raw material from Australia.
Its all connected in one way or another.

The ECB will want to curve inflation by raising. But raising may hurt consumption worldwide.

The FED raises have hurt banks ability to make money. That has helped weaken the banks. What about the banks in Europe? Has the raises hurt them? Its a unknown. 20 countries with different rates of local inflation, using the Euro. This is where we are. Every tweak in the ocean of the market causes a ripple somewhere else in the world. Nobody connects all the dots beforehand. A lot of countries surrounding the EU with much higher inflation. I would bet when the tide goes out. More nude bodies will turn up.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,512
  • Mar 13, 2023 11:08am Mar 13, 2023 11:08am
Quoting longfellow
Lot of activity in NASDAQ trading halts today. 5, 10, 15 minutes. Sometimes they halt, resume, then halt again. Most of the halts are banks. Not familiar with this process, but seems a tad concerning. {image}
The circuit breakers halt trading. When price moves too far., too fast. They halt them for a certain amount of minutes at a set %. They have different rules for the markets. I think 3 stops in a day closes the trades until the next day
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,513
  • Mar 13, 2023 11:14am Mar 13, 2023 11:14am
Quoting longfellow
Lot of activity in NASDAQ trading halts today. 5, 10, 15 minutes. Sometimes they halt, resume, then halt again. Most of the halts are banks. Not familiar with this process, but seems a tad concerning. {image}
Evidently this market has more than 3 stops.
Western Alliance looks like toast
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,514
  • Mar 13, 2023 1:02pm Mar 13, 2023 1:02pm
Quoting longfellow
Lot of activity in NASDAQ trading halts today. 5, 10, 15 minutes. Sometimes they halt, resume, then halt again. Most of the halts are banks. Not familiar with this process, but seems a tad concerning. {image}
My copy and paste is not working.. That one bank surprizingly is still worth 25$ish. It once was 125$
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,515
  • Mar 13, 2023 3:55pm Mar 13, 2023 3:55pm
We should expect high amounts of unrealized losses in all of these markets where it was expected that rates would NEVER significantly rise on sovereign bonds.

usa- from.25%, now 4.75%
canada- from .25%, now 4.5%
uk- from near 0%, now 4%
eur- from 0%, now 3%

we could see bank problems anywhere there is lighter restriction, or where banks, heavily bought long dated bonds not believing a hedge was necessary. This, with the fact that most small banks WORLDWIDE are going to get funds pulled from them, could cause things to spin out of control.

now is the time to make sure we don’t have funds in a risky bank (they all are, but some more than others).
  • #107,516
  • Mar 13, 2023 5:37pm Mar 13, 2023 5:37pm
Quoting mmccormac
We should expect high amounts of unrealized losses in all of these markets where it was expected that rates would NEVER significantly rise on sovereign bonds. usa- from.25%, now 4.75% canada- from .25%, now 4.5% uk- from near 0%, now 4% eur- from 0%, now 3% we could see bank problems anywhere there is lighter restriction, or where banks, heavily bought long dated bonds not believing a hedge was necessary. This, with the fact that most small banks WORLDWIDE are going to get funds pulled from them, could cause things to spin out of control. now is...
These can take down the better ones, creating a domino affect. In the U.S., they may force larger banks to absorb the defaulted ones. I know the FED said "all will get their money". Legally, with out new legislation. I dont see how this is true. If this is the case, why not buy bank stock? What's proposed is government bank takeover when capitalism failed. I remember 2018 when they gutted the rules. Here we are again mopping up the mess left by children. 40 billion in deposits left the bank in the run. The largest run in history. Money can be withdrawn electronic with the push of a button. No need for a long line. One person with a decent Twitter following can destroy a bank, the domino effect can lead to others. The U.S. needs to have banks like utility companies. Where stockholders get a dividend. Where the bank is unable to make risky positions. We cant keep having a "2008" crises every dozen years. Jail and claw backs would cull some of this in the U.S. Remember in 2008 the EU was on a terror until mid 2008. There was a little blip in 2007. Lehman, Merrell Lynch, and Bear Sterns followed within a year. Personally I think any 2008 upset will be cause the Euro to be worse off than 2008. PA is not at 1.6xx today. Since 2009, the U.S has become less dependent on foreign oil/energy. Europe is buying more from the U.S. Just the opposite of what happened to the USD since 1971 to 2008. Since the U.S. has exported energy. The USD has gone up with the energy exporting.

Another thing is the cost of shipping. The U.S Navy has offered some shipping security since WW2. If the U.S. dont need M.E. oil. Other countries may have to supply that security. That alone can bring shipping cost to astronomical numbers for the insurance. China etc may have to have a new tax. Shipping cheap plastic crap may make that stuff cost multiple X more. Countries may just decide to produce things at home.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,517
  • Mar 13, 2023 6:16pm Mar 13, 2023 6:16pm
Quoting gatorinla
Somewhere in the 1.0630/38x window. I look for a long. But it may not come
This window is still here, but there is an algo at 1.07
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,518
  • Mar 13, 2023 6:19pm Mar 13, 2023 6:19pm
I'm reading this: https://www.investing.com/analysis/d...ault-200636146

"In this example, SVB (A) would buy 10-year Treasuries and enter into a swap to hedge interest rate risk. SVB (A) pays a fixed 10-year rate (OIS) in the swap and receives the variable overnight Fed Funds rate for the next 10 years plus a spread (swap spread)."

I mean there been lot of talks that these banks are unsecured, but the new SOFR(secured overnight finance rate) are secured by governments Treasury Bonds since the beginning of this year.

My question is: If these are the Hedges that are required by law to be a certain percentage(%) as diversified risk exposure in the form of Government bonds, what says that the Secured Overnight Finance Rate won't Skyrocket if for example China,Japan and India starts to sell of their share of U.S bonds?
If you sell Bonds, value goes down Yields go up.
SOFR rate is based on market yields, thus if the government Yields skyrocket cause of massive selling, wouldn't government bonds be a useless collateral/Security for banks?
So the securities of the banks falls in a double fashion and the hedges don't work.
If the overnight rate skyrockets it would default many derivative instruments, and cause further chain-reactions through the banking world.
Thus paving the way for CBDC.
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You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #107,519
  • Mar 13, 2023 6:27pm Mar 13, 2023 6:27pm
Quoting Ferna
I'm reading this: https://www.investing.com/analysis/d...ault-200636146 "In this example, SVB (A) would buy 10-year Treasuries and enter into a swap to hedge interest rate risk. SVB (A) pays a fixed 10-year rate (OIS) in the swap and receives the variable overnight Fed Funds rate for the next 10 years plus a spread (swap spread)." I mean there been lot of talks that these banks are unsecured, but the new SOFR(secured overnight...
A lot of the law was repealed in 2018. They were allowed to take more risky bets. Plus J Powel was asleep at the regulation wheel. They increased risk and made a lot of money. Just like any of us. Until we made that bad trade. They got a margin call.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #107,520
  • Mar 13, 2023 6:41pm Mar 13, 2023 6:41pm
Look at that list. As bad as you think things can be. What's the alternative? You dont want your money is a unstable country. The list you have, is showing where they put their money. Because they have no other choice.
Quoting Ferna
I'm reading this: https://www.investing.com/analysis/d...ault-200636146 "In this example, SVB (A) would buy 10-year Treasuries and enter into a swap to hedge interest rate risk. SVB (A) pays a fixed 10-year rate (OIS) in the swap and receives the variable overnight Fed Funds rate for the next 10 years plus a spread (swap spread)." I mean there been lot of talks that these banks are unsecured, but the new SOFR(secured overnight...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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