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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #4,161
  • May 8, 2007 1:30pm May 8, 2007 1:30pm
Quoting tamkras
If I may add to your comment, jland, it is very important to learn all the basic components of Phil's strategy - MACD patterns, price levels, SMA's and PA such as doji, tails, etc. Then you can apply your own knowledge of the market as your experience and account grows.

As a near example with USD/CHF. Look how many times in the recent past this pair tried to break thru an important price level 1.2200. Was it taken? MACD strategy teaches us to take advantage of such price action. And wait for the 4Hr close all the time...

Well said Tamkras. I couldn't agree more! You said it right! As Phil always reminds us not to take every signal the MACD gives. Every now and then I still read the manual Phil has made and much more always look forward to the trade reviews from Phil! Congrats on your trade! Looks like you'll be having steak tonight! Goodluck to everyone!
  • #4,162
  • May 8, 2007 1:31pm May 8, 2007 1:31pm
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  • #4,163
  • May 8, 2007 1:47pm May 8, 2007 1:47pm
thanks Tamkras, for your insight. Did take the trade figuring a pullback to 8EMA on 4hr @ 162.33 TP 162.73. BE 162.53. Not looking for anymore upward pressure after that.
  • #4,164
  • Edited 5:32pm May 8, 2007 3:02pm | Edited 5:32pm
Quoting fxpertno1
thanks Tamkras, for your insight. Did take the trade figuring a pullback to 8EMA on 4hr @ 162.33 TP 162.73. BE 162.53. Not looking for anymore upward pressure after that.
Just be aware to have fibo68 at 162.50. The low of the spike is fibo50. Price can have dfficulties to close above 162.50. I do not have long MACD signal on my platform (IBFX GMT)
. I do not know what made you take that trade? It is only emotion?!?!

I looked at the JPY charts further. MACD is giving long signal an almost all of them. I think i will take the EJ long because the RRR looks good enough to ema 21 and there is enoug place for retracement since resistance line retest. Another reason is that we didn't see close below 89SMA and we had a very fast rebounce from fibo50.

I will miss GJ long because it is right now testing the broken support line that is now resistance. The RRR is also not OK. The price is on the high of a channel from the weekly timeframe.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4H MACD EJ 080507 2224.jpg Size: 83 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4H MACD GJ 080507 2225.jpg Size: 82 KB
  • #4,165
  • Edited 7:33pm May 8, 2007 6:17pm | Edited 7:33pm
Quoting ttitto
I think i will take the EJ long because the RRR looks good enough to ema 21 and there is enoug place for retracement since resistance line retest. Another reason is that we didn't see close below 89SMA and we had a very fast rebounce from fibo50.
I decided to try that one too, and at this point it looks like another stinker for me. I was going to look at taking some profit at 8EMA, but if it takes more than one or two bars to start moving up there won't be anymore room to the 8, and the 21 will start to look pretty weak, too.. I'll hold on 'til I'm stopped out in case things go better, but I'm beginning to think I should sell the buy signals and buy the sell signals - maybe I could turn my equity curve upside-down!!


OK.. stopped out now... 3% risked, 3% lost...
  • #4,166
  • May 8, 2007 7:44pm May 8, 2007 7:44pm
On the 4 hour basis, are we looking to retest the 21SMA after it hit the 89ema?
  • #4,167
  • May 8, 2007 8:02pm May 8, 2007 8:02pm
Quoting winlots
On the 4 hour basis, are we looking to retest the 21SMA after it hit the 89ema?
exactly
  • #4,168
  • May 8, 2007 8:25pm May 8, 2007 8:25pm
In the beginning of this thread I posted some remarks (do not recall what post exactly) that busted patterns can serve a fairly decent signal for trades. If it is busted H&S, going long is alright, if it is busted ascending triangle, shorting is welcome, etc. It is very important to wait until these structures are terminated, or culminate the breakout. It can take days or even weeks for those patterns to show up who wins. You can just take a quick look at NZD/JPY pair and see how long it took for the pair to form an ascending triangle - almost a month! All these time bulls have been complacent and were telling us - we are just accumulating a huge force to smash anything that stands in our way. But patience was wading, their forces receding, the bullish fundamentals eroded as time went by. The market is ruthless. Rome fell because of complacency. Spot the weakness and take the strong side who attacks.

I do not trade this pair - I played the same scenario with eur/jpy. But if you wish to practice the market do not be afraid to make mistakes. It is your never-ending world of puzzles. Think, act and win! Yours, Tamkras.
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  • #4,169
  • May 8, 2007 8:39pm May 8, 2007 8:39pm
I was stopped on EJ for -28pips. I didn't follow my plan and was punished. I didn't saw a close above 61fibo. I should also take a look at the 1H Chart that was building a nice short continuation zero line reject pattern. Good lesson for me!
  • #4,170
  • May 8, 2007 9:44pm May 8, 2007 9:44pm
Last time I tried MACD strategy on GBP/CHF it ended up well. I bought 1 lot on RB signal. This time I will try an RT. R:R looks good to me. Entry at 2.4230, TP at 2.4158, SL at 2.4290. I see the same scenario being developed with USD/CHF. Just 1 last trade this week and will take 3 days off. Tamkras.
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  • #4,171
  • May 8, 2007 11:23pm May 8, 2007 11:23pm
Hi Tamkras,

I went short USD/CHF at RT. The last candle closed below 365 ema. S/l 2211, target 2146.

I wish you a good luck with your GBP/CHF.
  • #4,172
  • May 8, 2007 11:33pm May 8, 2007 11:33pm
Quoting tamkras
Last time I tried MACD strategy on GBP/CHF it ended up well. I bought 1 lot on RB signal. This time I will try an RT. R:R looks good to me. Entry at 2.4230, TP at 2.4158, SL at 2.4290. I see the same scenario being developed with USD/CHF. Just 1 last trade this week and will take 3 days off. Tamkras.
hai tamkras,

about Gbp/Chf i see RB signal, but i didn't take it. it's because when i see daily chart, the price has bounce back from 2.4145. so the daily trend is up, i don't want to trade against the trend. so i'll wait the price pull back first, then if there's buy confirmation on MACD, then i'll take it ...

btw good luck with u'r trading tamkras ...
sorry for my english, hope u understand
  • #4,173
  • May 8, 2007 11:35pm May 8, 2007 11:35pm
Quoting kappa
Hi Tamkras,

I went short USD/CHF at RT. The last candle closed below 365 ema. S/l 2211, target 2146.

I wish you a good luck with your GBP/CHF.

I'm with you on this one Kappa. Went short at 1.2177. Nice RT, with a 1 hour confirmation. 365 ema showing strong resistance, as well as Mar 9 decending trendline. Good luck.
  • #4,174
  • May 8, 2007 11:39pm May 8, 2007 11:39pm
Quoting kappa
...
I went short USD/CHF at RT. The last candle closed below 365 ema. S/l 2211, target 2146....
i agree with u kappa, but why u take the trade early? coz when i see 4H MACD, that's not confirmed yet. maybe 2 hours later ...

but good luck with u'r trading kappa ...
  • #4,175
  • May 9, 2007 12:14am May 9, 2007 12:14am
Anybody thinking of going long the GU? RB seems to be forming.
Attached Image
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #4,176
  • May 9, 2007 12:19am May 9, 2007 12:19am
Quoting aftab
Anybody thinking of going long the GU? RB seems to be forming.
about GU, i'm afraid that's only pullback to 1.9921 coz that's a strong resistance on daily charts. so i won't take it, i just wait for short signal not long signal. hope this right
  • #4,177
  • May 9, 2007 12:25am May 9, 2007 12:25am
I took the UCHF short, too, after seeing the shooting star followed by some very short, indecisive candles, then a spinner... I hope I'm 'reading the emotion' correctly...

Also, I liked the look of the RB in the EURUSD, so I'm long there, with a target just before 21EMA (again, reversal tail followed by momentum-death spinners). In both cases, I will have to go to bed and let the trades manage themselves for the next 8 hours, so I've just set my TPs at a likely first target... I'll be sleeping for the next candle, so if the markets take off running I may miss much of the move, but as long as I can book some pips, I'm a winner, right?

  • #4,178
  • May 9, 2007 12:28am May 9, 2007 12:28am
Quoting aftab
Anybody thinking of going long the GU? RB seems to be forming.
Only 12 pips to initial target at 21 ema with s/l at 26 pips. R:R ratio tells me to pass for now. Watch 1 hr chart for T/C possibility.
  • #4,179
  • May 9, 2007 12:34am May 9, 2007 12:34am
Quoting aftab
Anybody thinking of going long the GU? RB seems to be forming.
I'm with MizZu... I can't ignore the downtrend line that started on 5/1.. many people are expecting another rise and I think there may at least be room to run to the 89SMA, but I'd rather wait for TL penetration (and watch for a tail) before committing.

The price is squeezing down into a wedge, so we should be prepared for a breakout in the next 24 - 48 hours, but which way? This is often a continuation pattern, which would argue for an upside move, but these breakouts very often occur to the 'wrong side' first, then correct back to the expected direction. If that happens, we could see a downward spike from the false breakout before the real move to a new high. I'll wait to see if that develops before making any trades on this pair....
  • #4,180
  • May 9, 2007 12:49am May 9, 2007 12:49am
Quoting DGC
...The price is squeezing down into a wedge, so we should be prepared for a breakout in the next 24 - 48 hours, but which way? This is often a continuation pattern, which would argue for an upside move, but these breakouts very often occur to the 'wrong side' first, then correct back to the expected direction. If that happens, we could see a downward spike from the false breakout before the real move to a new high. I'll wait to see if that develops before making any trades on this pair....
yup, let's wait what will happen next ...
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