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Pivot Trading

  • #42,541
  • Mar 12, 2023 5:07pm Mar 12, 2023 5:07pm
Quoting Tovip
{quote} Ya keeping an eye on this too...Yellen said no bailout on Sun but SVB is holding a shitload of money from many startups in the silicon valley. Only 2.7% of the bank accounts have deposits lower than 250k USD, which means 97.3% of the accounts won't get full FDIC protection. Will be interested if they can manage to find a buyer for SVB, or really abs no bailout. Spread can be huge when market reopens.
Forex Market has been open for over 1-hour now

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #42,542
  • Mar 12, 2023 5:15pm Mar 12, 2023 5:15pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Forex Market has been open for over 1-hour now {image}
Sorry I meant at 2300 GMT time on every weekday when the spread starts to return back to normal range, not like the one at the moment, shown in screenshot. My poor choice of word sorry.
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memento mori
  • #42,543
  • Mar 12, 2023 8:43pm Mar 12, 2023 8:43pm
US banking Crisis in play, even if the fed bailing out SVB
looking USDJPY short in play under pivot
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  • #42,544
  • Mar 12, 2023 9:42pm Mar 12, 2023 9:42pm
They will bail them out. Make a new way and bring new words to bail out.
Right now FED is taping like chicken....!!!

I see inflation high. No rate hikes in coming meeting....!
USD Weakness...
  • #42,545
  • Mar 13, 2023 6:18am Mar 13, 2023 6:18am
EUR USD this morning, rejection at R61.
Closed AUDUSD and EURCAD from last week with minimal profit, near breakeven almost.
Still in EURAUD waiting for it to reach Pivot level where Im closing it at a small loss. It may go lower, it may not, but the loss is small so I'd rather accept that than risk higher prices considering prices could go higher with the current ongoing events. Whatever the case, I have no edge here therefore am not willing to participate.
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  • #42,546
  • Mar 13, 2023 6:23am Mar 13, 2023 6:23am
Short EU, GU, GC.
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buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #42,547
  • Mar 13, 2023 7:29am Mar 13, 2023 7:29am
Watching NZDCAD.
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buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #42,548
  • Mar 13, 2023 10:57am Mar 13, 2023 10:57am
Quoting smd101
They will bail them out. Make a new way and bring new words to bail out. Right now FED is taping like chicken....!!! I see inflation high. No rate hikes in coming meeting....! USD Weakness...
no hikes is getting popular (one possible scenario)

+25bps (as planned) would suggest that everything is under control and fed moves forward as planned (2nd possible scenario)

+50bps
(3rd possible scenario)
(found this reason/opinion on the web)
"with the backstop in place this means the fed can raise interest rates by 50bps without harming HTM (held to maturity) assets, since they can be traded in *at par* if banks need liquidity. this enables the fed to go higher for longer.."

.
i dont care what they chose or the reasons for it (meeting is 9 days away),
in any case my plan as always is just fading the extremes.

kind regards
Muni loves you all!
  • #42,549
  • Mar 13, 2023 11:31am Mar 13, 2023 11:31am
the parabolic rise in eur/cad can bring us to >1.496x (this weeks r100, q1 r1, y2022body 423.6 extension) (eu rates can be the final trigger)
after that I see a correction into q2
Muni loves you all!
  • #42,550
  • Mar 13, 2023 11:55am Mar 13, 2023 11:55am
eur/aud has the same dynamic as eur/cad.
yR1 for eur/aud is @1.651x
Muni loves you all!
  • #42,551
  • Mar 13, 2023 2:00pm Mar 13, 2023 2:00pm
Hi all,
I've been tied up with various work projects hence the silence and lack of participation here but always read and check in with interest.
Some trading today with good results.
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Successful trading is intrinsic to risk management and discipline
  • #42,552
  • Mar 13, 2023 9:57pm Mar 13, 2023 9:57pm
Last week was a humbling week for me, but taking refuge in the fact that that black swanish event of SVB may have caused some of those over extended moves. Time to get back on the horse and move forward. CJ buy. Passed on EU on GU (lesson learned) due to CPI news later.
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Seek first to understand, then to be understood
  • #42,553
  • Mar 14, 2023 6:20am Mar 14, 2023 6:20am
Tue

  1. USD - CPI - focus is on SVB incident, FED unlikely to push through with 50 bps hike in Mar, weak dollar, though positive result might some temporary relief - plan to SHORT USD when any relevant pair is at a R pivot point, extended USD pairs to the upside may continue to go up

Wed

  1. GBP - Annual Budget Release - positive result will inc chance of BOE continuing hikes
  2. USD - PPI - positive result may provide relief to dollar though temporarily only

Thu

  1. AUD - Employment Change/Unemployment Rate - good result will allow RBA room to keep hiking by 25 bps, forecast is positive, AUD recovery story for overstretched pairs
  2. EUR - Main Refinancing Rate - 50bp hike to puhs through as the ECB remains – on paper – focused on fighting inflation, though some doubt has been cast due to SVB incident - possible BUYon overstretched EUR pairs

FRI

  1. USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - trend and forecast is positive in favor of USD

Seek first to understand, then to be understood
  • #42,554
  • Mar 14, 2023 7:43am Mar 14, 2023 7:43am
Closed both GU EU in loss before the news.
buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #42,555
  • Mar 14, 2023 7:53am Mar 14, 2023 7:53am
Hi Pivoters
Took some hits but recovering nicely.
so far today
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #42,556
  • Edited 8:20am Mar 14, 2023 7:58am | Edited 8:20am
After Powell's Congressional testonomy when the guy actively said he wants to slow down the economy and even worth putting millions out of work things look little edgy with Banks collapses
Feds may just halt rate hikes for now.I never understood the stupidity of actively trying to create a recession
To me and most Americans they rather have a job then no job.What's the point of lowering inflation when the risks are staggering
I dont think Feds can bail out banks businesses like they did in 2008.Its lot more risky now.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #42,557
  • Mar 14, 2023 8:18am Mar 14, 2023 8:18am
Quoting Davit
After Powell's Congressional testonomy when the guy actively said he wants to slow down the economy and even worth putting millions out of work things look little edgy with Banks collapses Feds may just halt rate hikes for now.I never understood the stupidity of actively trying to create a recession
Hi, no one knows what game he's playing. What he's probably planning, what his next steps are, etc...
But yes, common sense would say he probably missed the economics class...

He ignores everything, it's like he has a script and he doesn't want to rewrite it...
It's not a dream. Chipsa is real!
  • #42,558
  • Mar 14, 2023 8:22am Mar 14, 2023 8:22am
With that perspective I am activly selling USD on spikes and buying the CAD mainly.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #42,559
  • Mar 14, 2023 8:26am Mar 14, 2023 8:26am
Closed some EC
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #42,560
  • Mar 14, 2023 8:40am Mar 14, 2023 8:40am
Quoting John Chipsa
{quote} Hi, no one knows what game he's playing. What he's probably planning, what his next steps are, etc... But yes, common sense would say he probably missed the economics class... He ignores everything, it's like he has a script and he doesn't want to rewrite it...
Wow, you really don't understand the role of the FED do you?

They have 2 mandates: Price stability (inflation under 2%) AND low unemployement

That's it!

Powell has been extrememly transparent and the bank failure is NOT going to change the FED so trade at your own risk.
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