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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #4,141
  • May 8, 2007 9:00am May 8, 2007 9:00am
Quoting Nacho_1975
Hi all,
I shorted AUDUSD @ 8281 with the stop loss @ 8323, with the first target @ 8258, BUT I am not so confident on the decission I made....

I thought the down treadline, the 89 SMA, and the 8300, could hold the price...but now I have my doubts...

Any advice?

Thanks
Ignacio
Hi Nacho,

Without even commenting on the technicals....your r:r would have indicated to pass this deal by....you are risking 42 pips to make 23....? Do you have a tp 1, 2, 3? w/BE at first TP? Please share complete trading plan....

Thanks,

Pips
  • #4,142
  • May 8, 2007 9:09am May 8, 2007 9:09am
Hi pips.. Actually yes...
tp1@ 8258 (Just above the 21)
tp2@ 8237 (daily Pivot and 50% Fibo)
tp3@ 8221 (61.8% fibo)

hope this helps

thanks


Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Nacho,

Without even commenting on the technicals....your r:r would have indicated to pass this deal by....you are risking 42 pips to make 23....? Do you have a tp 1, 2, 3? w/BE at first TP? Please share complete trading plan....

Thanks,

Pips
  • #4,143
  • May 8, 2007 9:15am May 8, 2007 9:15am
Quoting Nacho_1975
Hi all,
I shorted AUDUSD @ 8281 with the stop loss @ 8323, with the first target @ 8258, BUT I am not so confident on the decission I made....

I thought the down treadline, the 89 SMA, and the 8300, could hold the price...but now I have my doubts...

Any advice?

Thanks
Ignacio
I have done a sell Limit at 0.8297, After Good Retail Sales m/m, but I have already close the trade at 0.8288, because the dollar are winning to all Major Crosses but less versus AUD.

BYE
MIKE
  • #4,144
  • May 8, 2007 9:25am May 8, 2007 9:25am
Quoting Nacho_1975
Hi pips.. Actually yes...
tp1@ 8258 (Just above the 21)
tp2@ 8237 (daily Pivot and 50% Fibo)
tp3@ 8221 (61.8% fibo)

hope this helps

thanks
Hi Nacho! Great, you have a plan that follow's the rules of the 4 hour system....I see the MACD signal on the 4 hour...I also see price went down to the 200, came back up to retest the 89....and looks like it is going back to the 21.

Trust your plan....& move to BE when you indicated ...have you tested AUD with your TP system? & the expectancy was positive? If so, you should trust your plan & let it run! My testing and real trades show most take 12 - 24 hours to develop.

Happy trading,
Pips
  • #4,145
  • May 8, 2007 9:28am May 8, 2007 9:28am
Hi,
I have been going through this threadand the system seems to be working for a lot of you. Is there a post explaining the rules of EMAs and SMAs as in what to do if a certain one is crossed etc .or any good book or reading material to help me understand better.Because i try to understand u guys dicussing your trades and some times it just flies over me. Also terms like TC, DOJI,
Thankyou.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #4,146
  • May 8, 2007 9:29am May 8, 2007 9:29am
Calling Alcastro!

Since I know you look at this at work....Great Job on your EUR/USD short!!!! current price is 1.3523

Do I hear the positive form of Cha-Ching?
  • #4,147
  • May 8, 2007 9:30am May 8, 2007 9:30am
& Have you all heard that Piggy Roaring tonight? TamKras' E/J trade is 100 pips in profit right now (AT THE 89)!!!! Congrats!!!!! Her patience has once again paid off!

May everyone have profitable trades today

Pips[/quote]

It is here, Pips. Shorted eur/jpy last Sunday based on my ND pattern and MACD. Over 120 pips right now. Will wait here for the pinbar to form and see what happens next. Yours, Tamkras.
Attached Image
  • #4,148
  • May 8, 2007 10:06am May 8, 2007 10:06am
Quoting tamkras
It is here, Pips. Shorted eur/jpy last Sunday based on my ND pattern and MACD. Over 120 pips right now. Will wait here for the pinbar to form and see what happens next. Yours, Tamkras.
Hi Tamkras,

You have done another fantastic trade !

Actually, Japanese FX analysts has been warning possible unwinding of Yen Carry before major interest news this week. There can be more room to go down for Cross Yens.

You are really good at feeling market emotion.

As for me, my G/U long was stopped out !
  • #4,149
  • May 8, 2007 10:19am May 8, 2007 10:19am
Quoting pips4uandme
Calling Alcastro!

Since I know you look at this at work....Great Job on your EUR/USD short!!!! current price is 1.3523

Do I hear the positive form of Cha-Ching?

Yes. I heard that Cha-Chinggggggg!!! even from my office. The trade is called "Trader's trick". I like the concept behind it, and when used in combination with Phill's MACD it is a "cha-chingerrr".

Here you can find a pdf with its description: http://www.trading-naked.com/library...rick_Entry.pdf
  • #4,150
  • May 8, 2007 10:28am May 8, 2007 10:28am
Quoting BIL2205
Hi,
I have been going through this threadand the system seems to be working for a lot of you. Is there a post explaining the rules of EMAs and SMAs as in what to do if a certain one is crossed etc .or any good book or reading material to help me understand better.Because i try to understand u guys dicussing your trades and some times it just flies over me. Also terms like TC, DOJI,
Thankyou.
Hi BIL2205!

I'd recommend you invest a couple of weekends (depending on your job situation) going through this entire thread, from the very first post!!Believe me, you won't be sorry you did!There might just be one or two posts you've overlooked that will actually make a lot of things clear to you. But...in the meantime, to answer your questions...
Some MACD signal abbreviations:
TC= Trend continuation signal; RT= Round top signal ;RB Round bottom
VT=v top; VB=v bottom
Candlestick charting terms:(such as Doji stars, morning stars, spinning tops,etc
Check these out for an overview:
1)http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...o_candlesticks
2)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candlestick_chart
  • #4,151
  • May 8, 2007 10:37am May 8, 2007 10:37am
Quoting BIL2205
Hi,
I have been going through this threadand the system seems to be working for a lot of you. Is there a post explaining the rules of EMAs and SMAs as in what to do if a certain one is crossed etc .or any good book or reading material to help me understand better.Because i try to understand u guys dicussing your trades and some times it just flies over me. Also terms like TC, DOJI,
Thankyou.
The only thing that can help you to uderstand is to read all the thread until now. Then try to mark the main points in a note book and read them everytime you sit down in front of your monitor.
  • #4,152
  • May 8, 2007 10:49am May 8, 2007 10:49am
thankyou "doji star" and "titto" for your suggestions. i will follow your advice for sure. Thanks again!!!!!
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #4,153
  • May 8, 2007 10:56am May 8, 2007 10:56am
Quoting BIL2205
Hi,
I have been going through this threadand the system seems to be working for a lot of you. Is there a post explaining the rules of EMAs and SMAs as in what to do if a certain one is crossed etc .or any good book or reading material to help me understand better.Because i try to understand u guys dicussing your trades and some times it just flies over me. Also terms like TC, DOJI,
Thankyou.

Try to go to post 2749.
I created a sort of summary of the first 200 pages of the thread.
These are the links where the summary and all the attachment are posted

Word zipped file

  1. http://rs31tl.rapidshare.com/files/2...H_strategy.zip

Attachment zipped file (mp3 & pdf)

  1. http://rs22l33.rapidshare.com/files/21614033/Attach.zip

Good Luck

  • #4,154
  • May 8, 2007 11:06am May 8, 2007 11:06am
Quoting kappa
Hi Tamkras,

You have done another fantastic trade !

Actually, Japanese FX analysts has been warning possible unwinding of Yen Carry before major interest news this week. There can be more room to go down for Cross Yens.

You are really good at feeling market emotion.

As for me, my G/U long was stopped out !
I had 4 reasons for shorting eur/jpy:

1). We start from the monthly chart. The high point of 163.59 is almost at the 38.2 fibo retracement level. It is a critical level. If your broker has access to all-time data for this pair you can draw fibo from the high in 1979 to the historical bottom in 2000. My fibo shows the number 163.99. Alright, why not taking a risk of 40 pips on a monthly chart!

2). It was taking a very, very long time for the price to break upside from the ascending triangle which was an expected action - you can read FX analysts on DailyFX. They were telling about 167.00 level. But bulls took a devastatingly (for them) long time to form the triangle and became complacent. They were punished today. My piggy led the squad .

3). Nesting pattern. On Sunday I saw aggressive pushes to the downside from the previous high. You can see that those hills became thinner and thinner. Are they Phil's 3 or 4 little sisters?

4). MACD short signal.

Regarding cable trade. I bought cable on Sunday according to my chart. Price was stuck at 89SMA and by Phil's rules it was time to get out. My gain was 30 pips and the other lot at BE. No loss. I will only cancel my bullish outlook for this pair at the day close below 1.9840.

Please, do not give up and I can try to help with anything I can.

Yours, Tamkras
  • #4,155
  • May 8, 2007 11:07am May 8, 2007 11:07am
Hi all ,

I made +140 pips since last week but I think I have missunderstood something concerning moving stop to BE. When price reaches the first TP i move the stop of the second half to the opening price. This made me out of two trades that reached their profits. I ask you what do you understand under "moving stop to BE". Is it maybe when you make 10 pips from the first half of the trade then you move the stop for the second half in the way that the whole trade (1st and second half) result in 0.
  • #4,156
  • May 8, 2007 11:37am May 8, 2007 11:37am
Quoting ttitto
Hi all ,

I made +140 pips since last week but I think I have missunderstood something concerning moving stop to BE. When price reaches the first TP i move the stop of the second half to the opening price. This made me out of two trades that reached their profits. I ask you what do you understand under "moving stop to BE". Is it maybe when you make 10 pips from the first half of the trade then you move the stop for the second half in the way that the whole trade (1st and second half) result in 0.

Well done. Even if you did not get those that run to you profit target you did get some profit. In the beginning it was the way I traded as well. Going break even to quickly. It is not just the amount of pips gain before BE is set but the whole motion of the price and its relation to TL, MA etc. I will sometimes set BE the same amount of pips behind my entry as to the pips I already took resulting in no gain should it be triggered. As you trade onwards you will learn to set BE according to the facts in front of you. In the beginning it helps you not to loose to big as well and keep you in the game. I will never let a gain of 25 pips run into a loss. If I think it is going to move I will take some profit off the table and let the rest have a fair chance to run with the move.
  • #4,157
  • May 8, 2007 12:10pm May 8, 2007 12:10pm
Quoting BIL2205
Hi,
I have been going through this threadand the system seems to be working for a lot of you. Is there a post explaining the rules of EMAs and SMAs as in what to do if a certain one is crossed etc .or any good book or reading material to help me understand better.Because i try to understand u guys dicussing your trades and some times it just flies over me. Also terms like TC, DOJI,
Thankyou.

Bil2205,
I recommend you to start with a one pair first. Either Eur/Usd or USD/Chf. The other pairs move too fast at times that its hard to catch the market unless you are online all day and can watch everything easily. And remember that your first goal is to get accustomed with the chart and its setup. Next would be the trend analysis. This system that Phil has developed is all too easy for us now that he laid it upon us. Goodluck to you!
  • #4,158
  • May 8, 2007 12:21pm May 8, 2007 12:21pm
Quoting jland
Bil2205,
I recommend you to start with a one pair first. Either Eur/Usd or USD/Chf. The other pairs move too fast at times that its hard to catch the market unless you are online all day and can watch everything easily. And remember that your first goal is to get accustomed with the chart and its setup. Next would be the trend analysis. This system that Phil has developed is all too easy for us now that he laid it upon us. Goodluck to you!
If I may add to your comment, jland, it is very important to learn all the basic components of Phil's strategy - MACD patterns, price levels, SMA's and PA such as doji, tails, etc. Then you can apply your own knowledge of the market as your experience and account grows.

As a near example with USD/CHF. Look how many times in the recent past this pair tried to break thru an important price level 1.2200. Was it taken? MACD strategy teaches us to take advantage of such price action. And wait for the 4Hr close all the time...
  • #4,159
  • May 8, 2007 12:47pm May 8, 2007 12:47pm
Anyone seeing the yen crosses forming RB. TP 162.73
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yencross.jpg Size: 104 KB
  • #4,160
  • May 8, 2007 1:13pm May 8, 2007 1:13pm
Quoting fxpertno1
Anyone seeing the yen crosses forming RB. TP 162.73
In my very humble opinion, I take it as a pullback (just my own view). As a complimentary (non-MACD) trade I bought it once a 1HR pinbar was formed and closed it at 13EMA. It might be o.k. still to go up until 21EMA but will the R:R ratio be a positive if a SL is considered today's low. Again, it would help to see your trade plan - I believe this is how Phil and his followers started this thread. Hope it helps. Yours, Tamkras.
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