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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,281
  • May 4, 2007 9:51pm May 4, 2007 9:51pm
My post was before the release, man... I was throwing the #s to make my point only...

Quoting trader8686
Cesar, Since I am study hard to improve my fundamental knowledge, I figure it out very important for the trading like us. So, I have to ask you this question: How do you know they revised the previous to 160K? I just checked the Forex Facotry Calendar, but don't see the revision of previous, it is still 177K for the previous. Of course, your posting has help me tooooo much, I was actually going to lon USD/JPY before the NFP. Because the Initial Jobless Claim is lower, supposely NFP is going to be higher. The fact is NFP lot lower.
Now, please still tell me where did you see the revised previou of 160K? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
Also, I don't get this: If the actual comes like 120K (better than forecast) but the previous is revised down to 160K, then market will sell the USD?

(8:30PM) 5 hrs after market, see you here next week........................
  • #4,282
  • May 5, 2007 1:29pm May 5, 2007 1:29pm
I have read a lost of posts that suggest that people are jumping in long positions based on speculation of the news. That type of trading scares me. If your system works, great! But, for the novice, looking for advice, please look at your charts before blindly going long on news.

This is not intended to be a slam on news traders.
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  • #4,283
  • May 6, 2007 6:47am May 6, 2007 6:47am
hello all
do you think when the markets open it would be a good time to go long after the stormshit the mid west over the weekend? but also there is a bank hoilday in the uk tomorrow so that means it will be a light days. so what you think
  • #4,284
  • May 6, 2007 3:48pm May 6, 2007 3:48pm
Holiday is over guys... let the charts role in yayeee!
  • #4,285
  • May 6, 2007 4:04pm May 6, 2007 4:04pm
Quoting im7i4z
Holiday is over guys... let the charts role in yayeee!
jaaman! lets see what this weeks kick in the balls
  • #4,286
  • May 6, 2007 7:03pm May 6, 2007 7:03pm
Guyz,
Tokyo fix in about an hr---should be interesting--any comments??

GL/GT
  • #4,287
  • May 6, 2007 7:49pm May 6, 2007 7:49pm
Quoting cesarnc
My post was before the release, man... I was throwing the #s to make my point only...
Cesar, I know your post was before the release. But, how or from where do you get the Revised Previous Number of 160K of NFP number?
  • #4,288
  • May 6, 2007 7:50pm May 6, 2007 7:50pm
Gaps on my charts:

UJ 120.14-15
GU 1.9934 - 35

And all are taking forever to fill.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #4,289
  • May 6, 2007 8:18pm May 6, 2007 8:18pm
Quoting mysticgenie
Guyz,
Tokyo fix in about an hr---should be interesting--any comments??

GL/GT
Hi, every time I heard of Tokyo fix, I really wish someone can tell me what is that? Is any country able to fix this currency market, or it's currency?
Maybe my experience still not long enough to know it this part.
  • #4,290
  • May 6, 2007 9:16pm May 6, 2007 9:16pm
Quoting trader8686
After this are we still moving toward 241? Anybody still hold longs?
M still holding longs since last month and you are right the market will heading towards to 241 due to this report:

21:40JAPAN'S WATANABE SAYS REPORT THAT SIZE OF YEN CARRY TRADE BY SPECULATORS NEAR $100 BLN 'ABOUT RIGHT'
  • #4,291
  • May 6, 2007 9:32pm May 6, 2007 9:32pm
There is a good article about the carry trade in last months Currency Trader Magazine.
  • #4,292
  • May 6, 2007 11:25pm May 6, 2007 11:25pm
Hope this helps

Quote
The Tokyo Fix is where the FX rate is established for the day by the banks for their customers. So even though the FX rate may change during the day the customer gets the rate at the time of the fix.
  • #4,293
  • May 7, 2007 12:49am May 7, 2007 12:49am
Quoting Rosco_P
Hope this helps
Didn't get this part: So even though the FX rate may change during the day the customer gets the rate at the time of the fix.

Can you give me an example?
  • #4,294
  • May 7, 2007 1:18am May 7, 2007 1:18am
Quoting trader8686
Didn't get this part: So even though the FX rate may change during the day the customer gets the rate at the time of the fix.

Can you give me an example?
Commercial clients who need to import/export rates and the tourist rate etc. The banks will set a rate for the day and this will affect the spot rate at the time of the fix? I think so.
Gone to a better place
  • #4,295
  • May 7, 2007 1:28am May 7, 2007 1:28am
Does anyone in this room know how to read the overbought/oversold indicator? Honest, I don't even know which indicator it is.
  • #4,296
  • May 7, 2007 1:56am May 7, 2007 1:56am
Quoting trader8686
Does anyone in this room know how to read the overbought/oversold indicator? Honest, I don't even know which indicator it is.
Currently, GY is trading close to the 89ma on the 1 hour chart which means it's not much overbought/oversold. Look up macd and learn all about it.

Unless you're like me - of course - just a crazy gambler...
Gone to a better place
  • #4,297
  • May 7, 2007 3:32am May 7, 2007 3:32am
another day free from Forex. Enjoy your holidays.

03:05pairs sitting like dead ducks here sans UK
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,298
  • May 7, 2007 7:34am May 7, 2007 7:34am
Quoting trader8686
Does anyone in this room know how to read the overbought/oversold indicator? Honest, I don't even know which indicator it is.

If the value is greater than 80 it is overbought and if under 20 than under sold.

The indicator used most often for this is Stochastics.
  • #4,299
  • May 7, 2007 8:25am May 7, 2007 8:25am
Quote
Originally Posted by trader8686 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Does anyone in this room know how to read the overbought/oversold indicator? Honest, I don't even know which indicator it is.
There is no indicator of that name, but several indicators which can indicate overbought or oversold levels. They may not all agree at the same time.

Personally I like to compare MACD, RSI and CCI.
RSI - overbought over 70-ish and oversold under 30-ish.
CCI - overbought over 100 and oversold under -100.

But an overbought reading isn't a trade signal. I.e. don't sell just because you log in the the RSI/CCI is at 70/100. It could be in an up trend, and stay overbought for a while. (And vice versa for a downtrend.) MACD helps identify trend exhaustion - e.g. by looking for zero crossovers - as well as when the RSI/CCI finally turn back down and cross below the 70/100 levels.

I also like Boris Schlossberg's double bolli approach, where he shows the 2.0 and 1.0 bolli bands to help identify high probability trend trades, which from the other side of the coin is confirmation that I don't what to get into a range trade depending on the price action cf it's position within the bands.

I use these four tools the most and I look for agreement on the hourly and daily charts to maximize probability of winning trades. Picking your entry and exit points carefully will help prevent trend chasing. (Still working on the impatience factor at the moment since I hate waiting ) I also add in the ichimoku cloud for JPY instruments to help identify support and resistance because we're trading sentiment, and I think that particular indicator is quite popular, hence more significant, for JPY. Still learning about that beastie.

Basically, pick a couple or a few indicators that you like and try them out, keeping the ones that work for you to develop a consistent trading style. If you search Amazon or eBay for forex trading books you should find some good prices.
  • #4,300
  • May 7, 2007 9:45am May 7, 2007 9:45am
Thanks for a good lesson of indicators from you all!
I will start to keep an eye on it.
Thanks, again.
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