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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,261
  • May 3, 2007 4:09pm May 3, 2007 4:09pm
Quoting trader8686
In today's case, get ready to long some of USD/JPY is not going to be a bad trade at all. Since USD NFP looks higher (because Jobless rate is lower from this morning, Initial Jobless Claim ), and Yen keeps on weaker.
Anyone agree or correct me?
I agree. Sort of. We are in a nice uptrend, but I would wait and buy on a dip to the lower trendline. If you look at 2002-2003, resistance levels could make it choppy at the top.

Just my two cents.
  • #4,262
  • May 3, 2007 4:24pm May 3, 2007 4:24pm
Quoting Al_Have1
I agree. Sort of. We are in a nice uptrend, but I would wait and buy on a dip to the lower trendline. If you look at 2002-2003, resistance levels could make it choppy at the top.

Just my two cents.
I just check it out, that resistance level, we are talking at about 125 evel.
That is still 500 pips away.
Agree or correct me?
  • #4,263
  • Edited 4:54pm May 3, 2007 4:34pm | Edited 4:54pm
Quoting smikester
Sorry for butting in. Hope you didn't get stung as badly as me. GU shook out a week's succesful trading.
An expensive lesson. Next time I will take more care and avoid the news, for the sake of a few pips.
Quoting trader8686
My rollover takes care of part of P/L.
But did you say, "....and avoid the news"?
That's not a good sign, I just figured it out to pay more attaintion on news from now on, if we expect a better trading.
It would be: "avoid trading during news". That was what he tried to say. Of course news cannot be ignored.
  • #4,264
  • May 3, 2007 4:51pm May 3, 2007 4:51pm
Quoting pabloski
It would be: "avoid trading during news". That was he tried to say. Of course news cannot be ignored.
Thanks, pabloski.
  • #4,265
  • May 3, 2007 5:27pm May 3, 2007 5:27pm
Quoting trader8686
I just check it out, that resistance level, we are talking at about 125 evel.
That is still 500 pips away.
Agree or correct me?
I agree, but there are others too that might make it a choppy ride to 125.
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  • #4,266
  • May 3, 2007 5:31pm May 3, 2007 5:31pm
Quoting Al_Have1
I agree, but there are others too that might make it a choppy ride to 125.
I think that it would be better to set buy stop on this pair, tomorrow morning before NFP news. The key point is how many pips higher than 120.50 to set as entry price?
  • #4,267
  • May 3, 2007 5:35pm May 3, 2007 5:35pm
Cheney in the middle-east next week reported. Rumor has it visiting allies to address on the Iran situation, hawkish or dovish, unknown.

Last time he was there, we saw carry trades melting down with the Chinese crisis, too... So eyes open on the gentlemen's vacation.

Market trades first and asks later
  • #4,268
  • May 3, 2007 6:32pm May 3, 2007 6:32pm
Man, what a bore. I can't believe this Japan "holiday" nonsense. Why do they need a holiday? I'm sure it's not important. Surely they could have left the banks open??

As a result of this lameness, the USDJPY sucked majorly. It seems all the yen can't be sold off unless the darn japanese central bank is open, or something. I'm up 20 pips so far but the thing is dead. Elsewhere, since USDJPY action is funeral-like, people started picking on the poor GBP instead.

Anyway, still long on the dollar and the GJ. The japs are vacationing, but NZD is showing awesome response (40 pips so far for me). Also beginning to join the GBPUSD in their sentiment, looks like it is headed down on several timeframes.

See you guys in London.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #4,269
  • May 3, 2007 6:48pm May 3, 2007 6:48pm
Quoting cesarnc
Cheney in the middle-east next week reported. Rumor has it visiting allies to address on the Iran situation, hawkish or dovish, unknown.

Last time he was there, we saw carry trades melting down with the Chinese crisis, too... So eyes open on the gentlemen's vacation.

Market trades first and asks later
Cesar, If tomorrow NFP is higher than previous, do you think it is a good chance to get into long USD/JPY? I do, just need more second openion.
  • #4,270
  • May 3, 2007 7:09pm May 3, 2007 7:09pm
Quoting Plutonite
Man, what a bore. I can't believe this Japan "holiday" nonsense. Why do they need a holiday? I'm sure it's not important. Surely they could have left the banks open??

As a result of this lameness, the USDJPY sucked majorly. It seems all the yen can't be sold off unless the darn japanese central bank is open, or something. I'm up 20 pips so far but the thing is dead. Elsewhere, since USDJPY action is funeral-like, people started picking on the poor GBP instead.

Anyway, still long on the dollar and the GJ. The japs are vacationing, but NZD is showing awesome response (40 pips so far for me). Also beginning to join the GBPUSD in their sentiment, looks like it is headed down on several timeframes.

See you guys in London.
Its funny to see you criticising Japan holidays and its importance just because you are not making much money. If you dont like Japan holidays, simply dont trade yen.
  • #4,271
  • May 3, 2007 7:27pm May 3, 2007 7:27pm
Quoting pabloski
Its funny to see you criticising Japan holidays and its importance just because you are not making much money. If you dont like Japan holidays, simply dont trade yen.
I was just joking(thought it was clear). I hereby declare I have nothing against Japanese holidays, Japanese markets, or even sushi.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #4,272
  • May 3, 2007 7:57pm May 3, 2007 7:57pm
Ok, I get it now! Sorry man.

Quoting Plutonite
I was just joking(thought it was clear). I hereby declare I have nothing against Japanese holidays, Japanese markets, or even sushi.
  • #4,273
  • May 4, 2007 2:30am May 4, 2007 2:30am
Quoting trader8686
Cesar, If tomorrow NFP is higher than previous, do you think it is a good chance to get into long USD/JPY? I do, just need more second openion.
The revision is the key... If the actual comes like 120K (better than forecast) but the previous is revised down to 160K, then market will sell the USD
  • #4,274
  • May 4, 2007 2:32am May 4, 2007 2:32am
Quoting trader8686
My rollover takes care of part of P/L.
But did you say, "....and avoid the news"?
That's not a good sign, I just figured it out to pay more attaintion on news from now on, if we expect a better trading.
I am sorry for my poor English. I am English! Of course I what I meant to say was: "I will avoid trading during the news announcements".

I will pay more attention to the news from now on. I thought I was getting better at technical analysis (and I am) by working hard. Then I forgot the fundamental analysis. It did not help that I had been at the monitor for over 10 hours, reading and studying charts. Although I enjoy the work very much, I think there is a danger it can become obsessive and tiring.

I know some people trade through the news deliberately even if they know it may go against their position, allowing for the probabilities to even out. I am sure if the news had been in my favour I would have been "singing a different song"! Then the lesson would not have been learned.

Anyone reading this might be kind enough to advise me of a better strategy in these situations (tighter stops?).

The above is a bit off topic so: I think GBP/JPY might rise today. But if I go long I will only be buying dips, carefully.
Gone to a better place
  • #4,275
  • May 4, 2007 8:18am May 4, 2007 8:18am
After this are we still moving toward 241? Anybody still hold longs?
  • #4,276
  • May 4, 2007 9:52am May 4, 2007 9:52am
Quoting smikester
I am sorry for my poor English. I am English! Of course I what I meant to say was: "I will avoid trading during the news announcements".

I will pay more attention to the news from now on. I thought I was getting better at technical analysis (and I am) by working hard. Then I forgot the fundamental analysis. It did not help that I had been at the monitor for over 10 hours, reading and studying charts. Although I enjoy the work very much, I think there is a danger it can become obsessive and tiring.

I know some people trade through the news deliberately even if they know it may go against their position, allowing for the probabilities to even out. I am sure if the news had been in my favour I would have been "singing a different song"! Then the lesson would not have been learned.

Anyone reading this might be kind enough to advise me of a better strategy in these situations (tighter stops?).

The above is a bit off topic so: I think GBP/JPY might rise today. But if I go long I will only be buying dips, carefully.
I had tried to PM you, however, you have not enabled that feature.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #4,277
  • May 4, 2007 9:53am May 4, 2007 9:53am
I'm still in my Longs on the UJ. TP at 120.50


Quoting trader8686
After this are we still moving toward 241? Anybody still hold longs?
  • #4,278
  • May 4, 2007 10:08am May 4, 2007 10:08am
DUn know to keep holding my GBP/JPY which is currently in 120 pips in profits (238.162) or sell it. T_T Damn it is sure a very tempting moment for me although i know that carry trend is looking strong..... Haizzzz

An the damn aud/jpy the stubborn bull just won't let me earn more than 20 pips and i sell her away and now i brought her back in the long direction hope it turns out well.....
  • #4,279
  • May 4, 2007 12:16pm May 4, 2007 12:16pm
Quoting Sami7
I had tried to PM you, however, you have not enabled that feature.

Thanks, Sami7, I did not realise the setting was for "buddies and moderators only". Please go ahead.
Gone to a better place
  • #4,280
  • May 4, 2007 8:30pm May 4, 2007 8:30pm
Quoting cesarnc
The revision is the key... If the actual comes like 120K (better than forecast) but the previous is revised down to 160K, then market will sell the USD
Cesar, Since I am study hard to improve my fundamental knowledge, I figure it out very important for the trading like us. So, I have to ask you this question: How do you know they revised the previous to 160K? I just checked the Forex Facotry Calendar, but don't see the revision of previous, it is still 177K for the previous. Of course, your posting has help me tooooo much, I was actually going to lon USD/JPY before the NFP. Because the Initial Jobless Claim is lower, supposely NFP is going to be higher. The fact is NFP lot lower.
Now, please still tell me where did you see the revised previou of 160K? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
Also, I don't get this: If the actual comes like 120K (better than forecast) but the previous is revised down to 160K, then market will sell the USD?

(8:30PM) 5 hrs after market, see you here next week........................
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