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Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

  • #1,661
  • Feb 26, 2023 5:37pm Feb 26, 2023 5:37pm
Quoting spzd
Was very busy with personal stuff. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UBM...l=Sideprojects

Brilliant video.

I can think of so many who could enjoy it in relation to Forex Trading.

But each to their own, accuracy



So. Maths is perfect. But real life (ie reality) AND trading, is not .
Interesting.

cheers Mark, made my day sir.
  • #1,662
  • Feb 27, 2023 6:59pm Feb 27, 2023 6:59pm
Quoting spzd
Was very busy with personal stuff. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UBM...l=Sideprojects

Most of the “full on” Maths guys understand the ‘hidden” maths.
Other’s don’t.



On Forex we also have all kinds of posters (some are even “hidden” Commercial Members).

But the Math & the Reality can get blurred by any succumbing to a tunnel vision.


Below is not quite like the Monty Hall example (which always fascinated me).
BUT.
Let’s look at this hypothetical quiz show question.


Behind Box #1
Is a Professional Currency Prop Trader
His a/c is $400,000 and he only makes a profit of
0.2% a day.

Behind Box #2
Is a serious (probably) currency trader
With an a/c of say $20,000 for the exercise, and he makes a useful
0.7% a day.

Behind Box #3
Is a new kid on the block, a CRYPTO trader
With an a/c, let's say $100
(as any more could be leaving it all at risk on the crypto platform folding on them and them losing the lot, the whole a/c)
BUT his trading makes him an extraordinary 100%
(yes, not like the mere less than 1% a day like the currency traders above) but a VERY IMPRESSIVE 100% a day on crypto.



So a (little) like Monty Hall’s question

If one of those traders lets YOU keep just ONE day’s trading profit from either of the three traders above,

#1 prop …… 0.2%,
#3 serious … 0.7%,
#3 crypto … 100%

Which # trader would you choose to do the trading for you (if they ALL make their usual daily profit)


Yep, a good video imo
Maths
Real Life
and
Trading
  • #1,663
  • Feb 27, 2023 7:19pm Feb 27, 2023 7:19pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Most of the “full on” Maths guys understand the ‘hidden” maths. Other’s don’t. On Forex we also have all kinds of posters (some are even “hidden” Commercial Members). But the Math & the Reality can get blurred by any succumbing to a tunnel vision. Below is not quite like the Monty Hall example (which always fascinated me). BUT. Let’s look at this hypothetical quiz show question. Behind Box #1 Is a Professional Currency Prop Trader His a/c is $400,000 and he only makes a profit of 0.2% a day. Behind Box #2 Is a serious (probably) currency...
The nuanced wording makes me laugh. Is it CryptoCom (commercial) or CryptoCon.


When I watched that video yesterday I had to think about the Monty Hall problem a little bit. The 2nd one was an interesting way to describe MAD (mutually assured destruction). And the last one hits to the point of reality can not always duplicate math.

Glad you liked it
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,664
  • Feb 27, 2023 7:26pm Feb 27, 2023 7:26pm
Quoting spzd
{quote}
The nuanced wording makes me laugh.
Is it CryptoCom (commercial) or CryptoCon.

  • #1,665
  • Feb 27, 2023 7:28pm Feb 27, 2023 7:28pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} The nuanced wording makes me laugh. Is it CryptoCom (commercial) or CryptoCon. When I watched that video yesterday I had to think about the Monty Hall problem a little bit. The 2nd one was an interesting way to describe MAD (mutually assured destruction). And the last one hits to the point of reality can not always duplicate math. Glad you liked it
Makes one wonder. In the "good ol' days" there would be no hesitation by the powers here at this fine establishment to place said individual into commercial. Or the final solution which many have received for far less offense.

Things that make ya' go hmmm ...

Inserted Video
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,666
  • Feb 27, 2023 9:24pm Feb 27, 2023 9:24pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} A Very Good Day Pt-9 The Quick Scalp Pt-2 Going to attempt to take this through the thought (or attempted) process to what I try to do. For the most part everything I have now for entries at certain points and all the process to that entry are my basic thoughts (which are theories and laws and all that throughout this thread). My issues to this point come from me trying to get "cute" (as the wife calls my losing experiments and she is correct - need to keep to the basic hypothesis and subsequent affirmation) with my entries. Doing the math,...
A Very Good Day Pt-9

The Quick Scalp Pt-3

What do I consider the best entries? To get the most from the example, I need to first quickly go over the theory. I am looking for momentum moves as price moves from the Buy side to the Sell side and from the Sell side to the Buy side of each time frames 20-Hull. I have no solid data proving this is so. All I have is my observations and my conclusions from those observations. The primary entry is at/near the M1-Hull and the M2-Hull are coming together for a cross. These need to be forming the classic apex or floor pattern. I say forming because the pattern is often not complete at the time of entry. This is where the results of my observations hold weight. I have the confidence that when price makes the cross in those instances the results are most likely positive.

When I place the M1 and M5 charts side-by-side I can get into entries off the M1 that I can see starting to setup on the M5, but not quite there - or the occasional bigger 5-minute bar that I would not be able to get in without the M1. In the end it still comes down to mainly the M5-Hull and price with everything else useful info.

With that I will start with the M5. This first pic is Monday 27 Feb 2023 showing the spots I consider the best entries. The two BE trades are a result of how soon I set my BE+. My expectation is that I should get 5 points within 5 to 7 minutes of entry and each of the 4 successful trades did that. More in the next post.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,667
  • Feb 27, 2023 9:33pm Feb 27, 2023 9:33pm
More thoughts on numbers ...


Is the infinite decimal .9999... the same as 1?

To the mathematician, the answer to the above question is a clear "yes"; as sure as the fact that the infinite decimal .3333... represents 1/3. However, so many people think that .9999... represents something "a tiny bit less than 1" that I started wondering why; and I think that the following is the reason.

When someone says, "I am 99.99 percent sure", or "We have .9999 of the information we need", these are correct ways of saying, "a tiny bit less than all", since .9999 denotes 9,999/10,000, i.e., 1 minus 1/10,000. The more 9's one adds, the closer one is to 1; each additional 9 cuts the difference from 1 by a factor of 10, but no finite number of 9's brings one exactly to 1. People hear such expressions frequently, and may not realize the subtle distinction between .9999, i.e., exactly four 9's, after the decimal point (or .99999, i.e., exactly five 9's, etc.) and ".9999...", where the three dots mean that the 9's are understood to go on forever. But by the mathematical interpretation of infinite decimals, the number represented by .9999... is the value which the infinite sequence of numbers .9, .99, .999, etc. is approaching; namely, 1.

Going back to the use of .9999 to mean "a little bit less than 1", the people who say this usually have not computed the discrepancy from 1 exactly, and found that it is 1/10,000. Rather, they use such expressions loosely, not worrying exactly how many 9's they say. Doubtless most people learn, from hearing how this expression is used, that "a decimal point followed by an uncertain number of 9's" means a very tiny bit less than 1, perhaps before they learn about infinite decimals. If one doesn't think about it, it is easy to confuse "a decimal point followed by an uncertain number of 9's" with "a decimal point followed by an endless string of 9's".

The same distinction exists between, say, .3333, which is a tiny bit less than 1/3, and .3333..., which is exactly 1/3. But people hardly ever have occasion to say, "I got almost but not quite a third of it", and express this by ".3333". If that were common usage, people might likewise wonder, "Is the infinite decimal .3333.... really 1/3, or something a little less?"

From: Is the infinite decimal .9999... the same as 1? (berkeley.edu)
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,668
  • Feb 27, 2023 9:41pm Feb 27, 2023 9:41pm
Quoting spzd
{quote}
I am looking for momentum moves as price moves from the Buy side to the Sell side and from the Sell side to the Buy side of each time frames 20-Hull.
I have no solid data proving this is so. All I have is my observations and my conclusions from those observations.

THIS !!! well put Mark, great observations imho.



Whatever we use as our demarcations, this is the change we wish to see.
  • #1,669
  • Feb 27, 2023 9:47pm Feb 27, 2023 9:47pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} THIS !!! well put Mark, great observations imho. Whatever we use as our demarcations, this is the change we wish to see.
Why thank you sir.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,670
  • Feb 27, 2023 9:51pm Feb 27, 2023 9:51pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} THIS !!! well put Mark, great observations imho. Whatever we use as our demarcations, this is the change we wish to see.
I think most of my theories are fairly sound.

Essentially price moves from one state into/through equilibrium into the opposite state. Into equilibrium would be akin to a zeppelin.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,671
  • Feb 27, 2023 10:01pm Feb 27, 2023 10:01pm
Sometimes when I get lost in a subject (whatever that is at that moment) it can go like this ...

Philosophy of Mathematics (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,672
  • Feb 27, 2023 10:24pm Feb 27, 2023 10:24pm
Quoting spzd
{quote}
I think most of my theories are fairly sound.
Essentially price moves from one state into/through equilibrium into the opposite state.
Into equilibrium would be akin to a zeppelin.

I think along the same lines for sure.
And I also do this firstly through observations, like yourself (maybe 20% maths in there).

I reckon this change of state is what catches some/many traders maybe still hanging onto a prior state as belief rather than the reality in front of their eyes
(ego, bias ???).

And at the "change of state" the Larger Market has them trapped for a moment & where they want them. Holding onto belief against reality, and if WE don't return to reality quickly (and either close or switch) then the drive begins into DD. That Change Of State is gold. Not always easy to see, or accept. Then it's all a matter of how long the new change holds till the market 'changes' state again. Interesting concepts. How we trade them is our own private journey.


(edit: ps BoJ news at the top of the hour. Been an inflection morning on GJ. Is a Change Of State coming up on this Final day of the Month.Who knows, not me yet.)
  • #1,673
  • Feb 27, 2023 10:32pm Feb 27, 2023 10:32pm
I botched my last prop attempt. Mostly due to using that account to work out some issues with what I have on the SP500. All I have left for the equities is to make it work and scale up the number of contracts per trade. And lest I forget, finalize a plan to run a contract or two after the initial TP.

Have been looking at the GJ and tweaking my squiggly lines in a quasi curve fitting thing. Actually just to make the Hull a bit smoother. Not a lot to report yet as I just started up again this afternoon. Using a 5-minute chart. Currencies are a bit different than the equities. Seeing a few variation possibilities. Will report on this after some more thought.

As Valentine Michael Smith would do, I will see if I can GROK this subject.

FYI (as if you really need to know this):

To grok means to understand and empathize with something or someone to the extent that the object or person becomes part of ones' sense self.

To grok something is to understand that thing to the level where it becomes a part of you, to embrace and to absorb it so that you and the thing merge to become a new entity that is greater than the sum of it's parts.

The interesting thing about grok is that as the above sentence describes it, once you really truly deeply understand something, it then becomes infinitely harder to communicate this to another person.


"Grok means to understand so thoroughly that the observer becomes a part of the observed—to merge, blend, intermarry, lose identity in group experience. It means almost everything that we mean by religion, philosophy, and science—and it means as little to us (because of our Earthling assumptions) as color means to a blind man."
- Stranger in a Strange Land - Robert Heinlein
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,674
  • Feb 27, 2023 10:42pm Feb 27, 2023 10:42pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} I think along the same lines for sure. And I also do this firstly through observations, like yourself (maybe 20% maths in there). I reckon this change of state is what catches some/many traders maybe still hanging onto a prior state as belief rather than the reality in front of their eyes (ego, bias ???). And at the "change of state" the Larger Market has them trapped for a moment & where they want them. Holding onto belief against reality, and if WE don't return to reality quickly (and either close or switch) then the drive begins into...
Observation. The math part is knowing how my squigly lines work as opposed to just plopping something on the chart. Observation. Not just the last 6 or 7 months of lots of hours, but many hours from different past periods. I think I have that elusive 10,000 hours (even though it is metaphorical as not every subject needs a full 10K and some need more - also the individual plays a HUGE part in that).
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,675
  • Feb 27, 2023 10:48pm Feb 27, 2023 10:48pm
Quoting spzd
As Valentine Michael Smith would do, I will see if I can GROK this subject.
FYI (as if you really need to know this): To grok means to understand and empathize...

Interesting thoughts.
I've gotta grab some early grub NOW before the yen news & the leadup to Franky.

However, also know (for any reading Marks post above on Grok) that Daemon Goldsmith also extolls this concept (grok ???)
in his own book Order Flow Trading For Fun And Profit
(without using volume data at all )

but by using what he calls Cognitive Empathy ...

that is available to all human beings who can empathise with a situation
(like hearing about a particular accident for example and empathising how the friends of the victims might be feeling.)

He extends that concept into how we, as traders, might develop cognitive empathy in what "other" traders are feeling, and how they might RESPOND ((maybe when caught in a bad trade DD etc - where they WILL have to make a decision on how they handle the trade (ie close at loss & with the market then reversing))

Just a very loose example of that book, sorry, but I got the concept okay (like I should with grok lol when I examine that later on )

It all brings us back again to the market being US vs US imo, while some still don't get that concept.
  • #1,676
  • Feb 27, 2023 10:57pm Feb 27, 2023 10:57pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Interesting thoughts. I've gotta grab some early grub NOW before the yen news & the leadup to Franky. However, also know (for any reading Marks post above on Grok) that Daemon Goldsmith also extolls this concept (grok ???) in his own book Order Flow Trading For Fun And Profit (without using volume data at all ) but by using what he calls Cognitive Empathy ... that is available to all human beings who can empathise with a situation (like hearing about a particular accident for example and empathising how the friends of the...
Kind of like my tag line I adopted. You know or you don't. It has finally come to be I do believe. And sometimes the reason for something can not clearly be explained. Almost just IS. That is about how I feel toward the charts with my framework.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,677
  • Feb 27, 2023 11:02pm Feb 27, 2023 11:02pm
Quoting spzd
{quote}
Kind of like my tag line I adopted. You know or you don't. It has finally come to be I do believe. And sometimes the reason for something can not clearly be explained. Almost just IS. That is about how I feel toward the charts with my framework.

Van Morrison
It Ain't why, why, why, why, why, why, why, why, why
It Just Is

https://rateyourmusic.com/release/un...hy-it-just-is/
  • #1,678
  • Edited 11:20pm Feb 27, 2023 11:10pm | Edited 11:20pm
On a roll.

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Closer view.

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Using a base of 25 for the Hull. M5 = 25. M15 = 75. H1 = 300. D1 = 7200.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,679
  • Feb 27, 2023 11:30pm Feb 27, 2023 11:30pm
Quoting spzd
On a roll. {image}
Closer view. {image}
Using a base of 25 for the Hull. M5 = 25. M15 = 75. H1 = 300. D1 = 7200.

Isn't it great watching your charts & those Changes Of State across certain Sessions then the switching and (flagging), inflecting then resuming, all poetry in motion.

It is a living breathing entity lol, and we can trade with it.
No real need to find counter trend trades at the edges,
others will do that for us, and they will do it well,
let them imho.
Just get back on the train with the Change Of State into the new momentum direction.

Many of the good runs are usually towards & in New York (but not always tho) so good work with them you guys that are there, as I am sleeping again lol.
  • #1,680
  • Feb 27, 2023 11:34pm Feb 27, 2023 11:34pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Isn't it great watching your charts & those Changes Of State across certain Sessions then the switching and (flagging), inflecting then resuming, all poetry in motion. It is a living breathing entity lol, and we can trade with it. No real need to find counter trend trades at the edges, others will do that for us, and they will do it well, let them imho. Just get back on the train with the Change Of State into the new momentum direction. Many of the good runs are usually towards & in New York (but not always tho) so good work with them you...
I see a lot of currency runs start in London. I am definitely in never never land at that time.

Figure GJ should give fair Asian session returns (I know it does usually) and the SP for a few hours during the day.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
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