My personal FX pairs and XAUUSD analysis

#AUDNZD: Classic Structure-Based Trade

AUDNZD reached a wide horizontal demand area.
The price formed a double top on that.
Its neckline has just been broken.

I expect a pullback to 1.101 / 1.102

[Consistent actions lead to consistent results]
I remembered my first trading system.
It was a Bollinger Band mean reversion strategy.
You buy when the price is at the lower band and sell when it’s at the upper band.
The first few trades I did were winners, then the losses came and I figured this trading strategy doesn’t work.
So, I moved on.
Next, I chanced upon harmonic patterns.
I spent half a year learning how to draw these patterns (guess I’m a slower learner).
At the start, I had some wins but slowly, the losses kicked in and eroded all my profits.
Again, I told myself…
“This trading strategy doesn’t work. Let’s try something else.”
This brought me to the world of price action trading, support and resistance, candlestick patterns, etc.
Again, the same pattern repeated itself.
I had some winners, some losers, and I gave up the strategy.
One day, I asked myself…
“Why does this always happen?”
“Why am I not getting any consistency in my trading?”
“It’s always a few winners and then the losses pile up and take everything away.”
Do you know what I realized?
The problem was me.
I was hopping from one trading strategy to the next.
My actions were inconsistent. And because my actions were inconsistent, I got inconsistent results (duh).
So, don’t make my mistakes.
If you want consistent results from trading, you must have consistent actions.
Stick to one trading strategy, master it—and then move on.

#GBPCAD: Classic Bullish Reversal

GBPCAD reached a key daily structure support.
The price formed a head & shoulders pattern on that
and broke its neckline, then.

I expect a pullback to 1.6165 / 1.62

#EURCAD: Bearish Outlook Explained

EURCAD is approaching a solid horizontal resistance cluster.
The price formed a double top, testing that.
Its neckline was broken then.

I expect a bearish move to 1.4333 / 1.4319 levels now.

Dollar Index (#DXY): Important Breakout

So the range, that we spotted earlier on Dollar Index, is finally broken.
The market successfully closed above that on a daily.

Now a further bullish continuation is expected.
Next target - 105.1

#CADJPY: Bullish Outlook Explained

CADJPY broke and closed above a wide horizontal supply zone on a daily.
The broken structure turned into a demand zone now.

Probabilities will be high that the price will bounce from that.
Next resistance - 100.95

Gold (#XAUUSD): Your Trading Plan For Next Week

Gold reached a solid horizontal key level this week.
The price formed a doji candle on that on Thursday and then a rejection candle was formed.

We see the attempt of buyers to push.
To catch a pullback, watch a falling parallel channel and a minor horizontal supply zone.
I would suggest waiting for a bullish breakout of these 2. It will most likely trigger the initiation of a correctional movement.
Let 4h candle close above the trend line and a yellow area to confirm the breakout.

Goal will be 1866.

I will monitor this trading setup and post an update later on.

EURNZD: Classic Bullish Setup

EURNZD broke and closed above a neckline of a huge ascending triangle formation on a daily.
Watch the underlined blue zone carefully. It is a contracting buy zone based on a trend line and a broken neckline.

I will expect a bullish wave from that.
Next resistance - 0.728

USDJPY: Key Levels to Watch This Week

Here is my fresh structure analysis for USDJPY.

Resistance 1: 134.48 - 135.475 area
Resistance 2: 137.6 - 138.6 area

Support 1: 132.6 - 132.9 area
Support 2: 129.7 - 131.05 area
Support 3: 127.2 - 128.2 area

Consider these structures for pullback, breakout trading.

Dollar Index (#DXY): Your Detailed Trading Plan

We have spotted earlier a confirmed structure breakout on Dollar Index.
The market is retesting that at the moment.

To catch a bullish move from that with a confirmation, watch a double-bottom pattern on the 4H time frame.

104.05 - 104.09 is its neckline.
Wait for its bullish breakout; we need a 4H candle close above that to confirm the violation.

A bullish continuation will be expected then to 104.55.

If the price sets a new lower low, the setup will become invalid.

#CADJPY: Bullish Outlook Explained

CADJPY broke and closed above a solid horizontal supply zone on a daily.
The broken structure turned into a demand zone.

Probabilities are high that a bullish wave will initiate from that.
The goal for buyers - 101.0

#NZDJPY: Pullback From Key Level

NZDJPY is taking off from key support.
The price formed a double bottom on that and broke its neckline.

Goals: 84.35 / 84.8

#USDCAD: Important Breakout

USDCAD suddenly bounced yesterday.
The price formed a high momentum bullish candle, breaking a solid horizontal resistance and a primary falling trend line.

I believe that bulls may push the price much higher now.
Next goal - 1.366

DOLLAR INDEX (#DXY) Bullish Continuation

Update for my yesterday's post on Dollar Index.

The market successfully broke the neckline of a triple bottom pattern on 4H.
We see a positive bullish reaction after a retest.

A bullish continuation is expected now to 104.56 / 104.95

[Here’s why you need proper risk management in trading]

Imagine:

There are two traders, John and Sally.

They both start with a $1,000 account
John is an aggressive trader and he risks $250 on each trade.

Sally is a conservative trader and she risks $20 on each trade.

Both adopt a trading strategy that wins 50% of the time with an average of 1:2 risk to reward.

Over the next 8 trades, the outcomes are Lose Lose Lose Lose Win Win Win Win.

Here’s the outcome for John:

-$250 -$250 -$250 -$250 = BLOW UP

Here’s the outcome for Sally:

-$20 -$20 -$20 -$20 +$40 +$40 +$40 +$40 = +$80

Do you see the power of risk management?

So here’s the deal:

As a trader, you’ll encounter losses regularly.

But with proper risk management, you can contain these losses till it feels like an “ant bite”.

GOLD (#XAUUSD): Update & The Thing to Watch

The market keeps coiling on a critical daily horizontal support.

Analyzing a 4H time frame, I spotted a potential inverted head & shoulders pattern.
The price has already completed the left shoulder and the head and currently, it is forming the right shoulder.

1842 - 1850 is its horizontal neckline.
The trigger to buy Gold will be its bullish breakout (4h candle close above).
A bullish continuation will be expected to 1866 / 1879 levels then.

If the price sets a new low, the pattern will become invalid though.

#CADJPY: Pullback From Key Level

CADJPY reached a solid horizontal key level yesterday.
The price formed an inverted head & shoulders pattern on that on 1H time frame.
Its neckline was broken then.

I expect a bullish move to 100.0 / 100.25

#GBPAUD: Important Breakout

GBPAUD was stuck for some time on 1.75 - 1.763 horizontal supply area.
That structure was finally broken this week.
It turned in a demand zone now.

I will expect a bullish wave from that at least to 1.788
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#EURGBP: Time to Fall

EURGBP has nicely respected a wide 4H horizontal supply area.
The price formed a triple top pattern on that and broke its neckline then.

I expect a bearish move to 0.8798 / 0.8789

Nasdaq-100 Index (#US100) Short Trade Explained

Nasdaq Index is approaching a key daily structure resistance.
The price has formed a descending triangle formation on that on 1H time frame.
Its neckline was broken, and an hourly candle closed below that, confirming a highly probable coming bearish movement.

Next support: 12000