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MA Crossover System that works for me

  • #521
  • Feb 21, 2023 5:37am Feb 21, 2023 5:37am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} The CADJPY breakout has started, possibly, hopefully. This is the H4 chart.{image}
But another Yen pair has held on to its gains. Hopefully the big CAD data release in 2 hours' time helps and doesn't kill this one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #522
  • Feb 21, 2023 7:18am Feb 21, 2023 7:18am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} Don't give up too soon on this one, as price seems to be recovering. If the dominant trend direction is in our favour it often pays to be patient with a trade.
This trade is back in profit. If we are unsure, we could close it now for a small profit, or choose to let it run. Noting josi's reminder to look left, this could be running into some traffic.
  • #523
  • Feb 21, 2023 7:39am Feb 21, 2023 7:39am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} This trade is back in profit. If we are unsure, we could close it now for a small profit, or choose to let it run. Noting josi's reminder to look left, this could be running into some traffic.
A suggestion : shift your stoploss to the low of this H4 candle. if the breakout is strong, this low will never be taken out.

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  • #524
  • Feb 21, 2023 7:41am Feb 21, 2023 7:41am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} But another Yen pair has held on to its gains. Hopefully the big CAD data release in 2 hours' time helps and doesn't kill this one. {image}
Decided to close this before the news hit the wires. Good thing too. Got out with 40 pips before it lost more than half of that. It might recover, but then it might not. I made a clear decision and that's it.
  • #525
  • Feb 21, 2023 11:29am Feb 21, 2023 11:29am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} This trade is back in profit. If we are unsure, we could close it now for a small profit, or choose to let it run. Noting josi's reminder to look left, this could be running into some traffic.
Managed to close it at last at BE.
  • #526
  • Feb 21, 2023 12:35pm Feb 21, 2023 12:35pm
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} Decided to close this before the news hit the wires. Good thing too. Got out with 40 pips before it lost more than half of that. It might recover, but then it might not. I made a clear decision and that's it.
This is a clasical breakout pullback scenerio. trading breakouts is always most difficult. trading pullback continuation pattern is easier.
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the trendline and the 50% fib retracement levels are the same as 8 ema level.
watch for continuation pattern from this level (on H1) as per your criteria.
suggest long entry if candle close is above 8 ema on H1.
the obvious SL will be swing low on H1 and first target will be high of this swing on H4.

PS: this applies only if ithe retracement is between 50 and 38,2% and H1 candle close is above 8 ema.
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  • #527
  • Edited 2:17pm Feb 21, 2023 2:03pm | Edited 2:17pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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time to pull thetrigger.
go long above 1.4380
red dotted line is stoploss.
100 % fib is target1.4377
  • #528
  • Feb 22, 2023 1:08am Feb 22, 2023 1:08am
Quoting walvekarraje
{image} time to pull thetrigger. go long above 1.4380 red dotted line is stoploss. 100 % fib is target1.4377
And here's another yen pair also from yesterday that is getting ready to go.

The short line is where I exited manually yesterday, shortly before the CAD news release, and as soon as price closes above the 8 EMA I'll be ready for another go at it.

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  • #529
  • Feb 22, 2023 1:11am Feb 22, 2023 1:11am
The thick blue line is just about the lowest price ever on this pair. It is about 90 pips down from current price level. I'm not interested in selling now, so trading the range up might be a good idea and after that, hopefully a long break up.
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  • #530
  • Feb 22, 2023 1:18am Feb 22, 2023 1:18am
CHFJPY has broken above a key level, unfortunately already rather high up the price curve, but there's another 370 pips available up to the upper line. I will wait for a suitable entry on H4 or H1.
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  • #531
  • Feb 22, 2023 1:25am Feb 22, 2023 1:25am
Likewise USDJPY - has broken decisively out of the bearish channel and is now above the key S/R level, maybe not quite as decisively yet. Waiting for a suitable entry on H4.
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  • #532
  • Feb 22, 2023 2:37am Feb 22, 2023 2:37am
What to do? Close now? Hope it blasts through the resistance?

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  • #533
  • Feb 22, 2023 9:00am Feb 22, 2023 9:00am
Quoting AlistairC
What to do? Close now? Hope it blasts through the resistance? {image}
Seems to have recovered nicely and will soon be up against the same resistance level. Which is a pity, because a pinbar lying across both EMAs is generally a powerful signal. Perhaps it will be sufficient to get price across the resistance too.

Another point to make here is the value of placing stops at recent swing points - the pullback came nowhere near hitting the SL.
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  • #534
  • Feb 23, 2023 3:30am Feb 23, 2023 3:30am
A trade that seems to be going my way, finally!

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  • #535
  • Feb 23, 2023 4:06am Feb 23, 2023 4:06am
Quoting AlistairC
A trade that seems to be going my way, finally! {image}
best of luck
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  • #536
  • Feb 23, 2023 5:06am Feb 23, 2023 5:06am
Quoting josi
{quote} best of luck {image}
Thanks josi, for your comments. You have a lot of knowledge and experience. Please won't you post some of your own trade ideas so we can learn from you?
  • #537
  • Feb 23, 2023 5:46am Feb 23, 2023 5:46am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} Thanks josi, for your comments. You have a lot of knowledge and experience. Please won't you post some of your own trade ideas so we can learn from you?
no, I will never do that - poosting live-trades would add to my stress-level
I avoid unnecessary stress triggers.
  • #538
  • Feb 23, 2023 6:58am Feb 23, 2023 6:58am
Quoting josi
{quote} no, I will never do that - poosting live-trades would add to my stress-level I avoid unnecessary stress triggers.
I know the feeling. Post your trades after the fact then. Both good and bad trades and if you don't mind, analyse what went right or wrong?
  • #539
  • Feb 23, 2023 10:54am Feb 23, 2023 10:54am
Quoting AlistairC
A trade that seems to be going my way, finally! {image}
This one pulled right back, but it's back to where it was about 8 hours ago. Decided to close early for 44 pips, given josi's intervention. I thought I'd checked everything, but there's always something to trip one up.

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  • #540
  • Feb 24, 2023 12:52am Feb 24, 2023 12:52am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} given josi's intervention
Please, I never said it won't go where you needed it to.
Support & resistance (or for the jargonistas supply & demand, or ICT-areas etc) are everywhere - it is just wise to see them before you enter any trade.
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