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Pivot Trading

  • #42,221
  • Feb 17, 2023 7:33am Feb 17, 2023 7:33am
Have a nice trip!
  • #42,222
  • Feb 17, 2023 7:35am Feb 17, 2023 7:35am
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Pip Student
  • #42,223
  • Feb 17, 2023 7:38am Feb 17, 2023 7:38am
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} Nice. I live here. The perfect time of year in Florida, late Feb until around mid May......75-85 everyday, low humidity......before the blazing hot misery of June-Sept. Where are you heading?
Hallandale
Never been there looking forward.Love swimming.Love to get away from MA misery east coast winter...brrr nothing fun about it
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #42,224
  • Feb 17, 2023 7:40am Feb 17, 2023 7:40am
My last "call" before Vac
Short UC
textbook Pivot set up. but anything can happen. The reason USD so hyper because some feds push for more hikes.Market is "pricing in"
Having said this there is almost always corrections taking place therefore probability UC dropping below 35 is huge
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #42,225
  • Feb 17, 2023 7:40am Feb 17, 2023 7:40am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hallandale Never been there looking forward.Love swimming.Love to get away from MA misery east coast winter...brrr nothing fun about it
Yes and I go to the mountains of TN/NC in July to escape the FL summer. Grew up in Jersey so not quite as bad winters as MA, but I definitely feel what you mean.
You couldn't pay me enough to go back, for a variety of reasons besides the weather.
  • #42,226
  • Feb 17, 2023 7:46am Feb 17, 2023 7:46am
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} Yes and I go to the mountains of TN/NC in July to escape the FL summer. Grew up in Jersey so not quite as bad winters as MA, but I definitely feel what you mean. You couldn't pay me enough to go back, for a variety of reasons besides the weather.
Some great roads to ride motorcycle there TN/NC and Georgia. I hear you that's my plan to get out of New England expensive over taxed and crappy weather 6months of winter...
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #42,227
  • Edited 9:05am Feb 17, 2023 8:54am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting Davit
Great trading and posting guys! Going to Florida for vacation.Wont do much trading (what's the point of vacation if you are going to work) I'll see you guys next month. Green pips
As you write, enjoy your vacation.
I went last year Tour du Mont Blanc, I like long hikes, Santiago, Rome etc... This year I'm going to Kungsleden (400km) and maybe see Mallorca. I like to climb hills. I used to ride a BMW F650GS, if this year is good, I would get a GS1200 and go on some adventures trip :-)
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It's not a dream. Chipsa is real!
  • #42,228
  • Edited 9:47am Feb 17, 2023 9:23am | Edited 9:47am
Textbook overextended + signs of reversals. I understand the USD news yesterday came out positive but even the best news needs to retrace.

Edit - the trade may retrace again and possibly even put the latest trade in drawdown but thats ok , my patience is my 'edge'.
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  • #42,229
  • Feb 17, 2023 9:46am Feb 17, 2023 9:46am
Also still in a CADJPY short for the last few days. Was overextended and again, corrections / retracements are natural.
Made an early entry which went in to drawdown but that's never a problem. I'm running small sizes to manage risk - the reward shows up on its own.
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  • #42,230
  • Feb 17, 2023 2:08pm Feb 17, 2023 2:08pm
Have a nice weekend everyone, this week has been good..
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It's not a dream. Chipsa is real!
  • #42,231
  • Feb 17, 2023 3:06pm Feb 17, 2023 3:06pm
Not my best week, I was in Germany on business so had limited access to charts. However, onwards and upwards. Lots of exciting opportunities for the week ahead.
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I'm thinking/hoping there might be a USD sell off next week supported by the technicals.

My watch list:
UJ - S (S/R on the daily chart. Pinbar
Silver - L (Weekly support and pinbar on daily and weekly)
EU - L (Support and daily pinbar)
UC - S (Daily resistance and pinbar)
USDIndex - Daily pinbar possibly indicating short. Dropped nicely today from R100 and ADR high.

PPE will be key for entries etc

Some key events next week for USD to watch for.

Tuesday 21st Feb
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Thursday 23rd Feb
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Friday 24th Feb
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Successful trading is intrinsic to risk management and discipline
  • #42,232
  • Feb 17, 2023 4:21pm Feb 17, 2023 4:21pm
Quoting nittohanns
Not my best week, I was in Germany on business so had limited access to charts. However, onwards and upwards. Lots of exciting opportunities for the week ahead. {image} I'm thinking/hoping there might be a USD sell off next week supported by the technicals. My watch list: UJ - S (S/R on the daily chart. Pinbar Silver - L (Weekly support and pinbar on daily and weekly) EU - L (Support and daily pinbar) UC - S (Daily resistance and pinbar) USDIndex - Daily pinbar possibly indicating short. Dropped nicely today from R100 and ADR high. PPE will be key...
In Germany which city, would be nice to meet you in person.
  • #42,233
  • Feb 17, 2023 11:11pm Feb 17, 2023 11:11pm
Quoting Davit
Great trading and posting guys! Going to Florida for vacation.Wont do much trading (what's the point of vacation if you are going to work) I'll see you guys next month. Green pips
Have a nice vacation... dont forget to bring a souvenir for all the member here.. :-D
Combination of Edge, Pivot Zone, ADR and magic of PA is A+ Probability
  • #42,234
  • Feb 18, 2023 4:36am Feb 18, 2023 4:36am
Quoting smd101
{quote} In Germany which city, would be nice to meet you in person.
Sure, next time.. I was in Cologne, unfortunately not at the carnival!
Successful trading is intrinsic to risk management and discipline
  • #42,235
  • Feb 18, 2023 6:21am Feb 18, 2023 6:21am
Quoting nittohanns
{quote} Sure, next time.. I was in Cologne, unfortunately not at the carnival!
Wow, that is great... I actually live in cologne....!!!
Sure next time.
  • #42,236
  • Feb 18, 2023 7:44am Feb 18, 2023 7:44am
Quoting smd101
{quote} Wow, that is great... I actually live in cologne....!!! Sure next time.
Oh wow really. It's a fantastic city, I've been a few times.
Successful trading is intrinsic to risk management and discipline
  • #42,237
  • Feb 18, 2023 10:43am Feb 18, 2023 10:43am
Just for info ..... hahaha
Now the COT data is unreliable from now on....!!!
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  • #42,238
  • Feb 19, 2023 9:54pm Feb 19, 2023 9:54pm
Things to watch this week:

TUES French Flash Manufacturing - forecast positive, MEDIUM IMPACT
GBP - Flash Manufacturing - forecast positive
If GBP is strong enough to move EG to S61, I would look for a trade north to WPP.

CAD - CPI, HIGH IMPACT - Considered the most important inflation related release.
USD - Flash Services PMI - project positive
AUD - Wage Price Index - No change expected
NZD - Rate Announcement 50 basis point increase expected. Effect likely to be priced in to the market as we approach the day.

WED EUR - German ifo Business Climate - project positive for EUR, MEDIUM IMPACT
USD - FOMC meeting minutes. Looking for clues about increased rates, expected to be up to three more this year. Not clear whether 25 or 50 basis points each. It can only lend strength to the USD. Since this is expected, it will likely be priced in however fomc minutes can always cause volatility.

THURS USD GPD –projected to remain unchanged at 2.9%

FRI USD Core CPI, projected to increase from .3% to .4%

Also, G20 meetings begin on Wednesday. This may increase volatility overall.

Pairs I am watching EN, EC, AN, UC, AC, NC, EG, EU
  • #42,239
  • Feb 20, 2023 12:55am Feb 20, 2023 12:55am
I just short GU. Taking the ride till the S38 pivot level.
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  • #42,240
  • Feb 20, 2023 12:57am Feb 20, 2023 12:57am
AN is moving steadily toward R78 which is also the ADR high. Still going north strong though but keeping an eye on it.
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