Journal of a Maturing Trader

How are you managing your trades? Moving stop loss to some level or closing partials?
With EURCAD, why you decided to close that trade?

In post #2 you said that you will specialize in just four pairs for the next few years - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDINR. But now you are trading CADJPY and EURCAD. Something changed?

I am mainly a discretionary trader. I have a daily risk limit and daily profit limit. I stop when either of them is reached.

Also, I do NOT revise my stop losses - even if the trade goes into really good profit.

Closing EURCAD was a mistake. Price Action is NOW forming different patterns. The patterns of the last year - NO longer work. The current price action trend is of stop loss hunting. If you view the charts as Big Players hunting your stop losses - then you will do well.

My company account is yet not active. On the company account - I will trade only the four mentioned pairs.

The trades mentioned in this blog were taken in my personal account. These were NOT derivative markets trades on the exchanges. They were in the real forex market.

US OIL might be a good short for today.

Currently, waiting for my trigger levels to be reached.

I will take a small position at medium confidence level. If stop loss is hit, then I will retake a reasonable size position from the high confidence level.

Stop loss will be 0.50 points from the entry point.

Emerging Trends in Price Action Trading

The price action trend has changed as compared to the last year. Last year, we used to keep the stop loss at the bottom of the candle (where we initiated our trade - the probable bottom (vice versa for short position)). If the view was right, then the price action continued in the direction of expected movement.

However, from this month the market is making a stop loss hunting trend - even in smaller time frames.

The price action where we saw an sharp reversal movement - indication of pivot (stop losses have been triggered for retail players) - no longer holds good.

Retail traders adapted to this movement of last year and are placing their trades at this point with the stop loss at the top/bottom of the candle or slightly above/below it. Market is coming back to hunt for stop losses - sometimes twice or thrice as well.

It is time for experienced traders like us to re-adapt to this movement of the market (market makers).

The current working strategy is to wait for sufficient time to initiate a trade. Whenever you are of the view that stop loss hunting has completed then only you should initiate the trade.

It will be interesting to see how long this trend continues!

Happy Trading!

Growing Awareness of Retail Traders and the Mega Collapse

The awareness level of retail traders have reached unprecedented level. They now have the expertise to deal with the trick of institutional traders and market makers. Proliferation of internet and social media have made this even bigger.

Before 1929, we saw similar trends in the capitalistic society of United States of America.

This sufficiently indicates that we are in the final leg - before a mega financial collapse. This collapse might have the potential to wipe out Capitalism.

The current era is of Black Swan events. Unexpected events are happening one after the other.

It will be interesting to see which Black Swan event triggers this mega collapse.

I am a BEAR in the longer time frames.

Happy Trading!

I was told at today EOD - that I will get my account on a make shift basis (account of someone else but I can trade on it) on Monday.

Company is facing some issues from SEBI - this has led to delay in account creation.

The delay actually helped me get comfortable with the Indian Market's environment. Discussions with fellow traders were a lot helpful - especially Saurabh Pratap. There is another guy in the company - Shivam Shrivastava - he has an incredible ability to see the current patterns in the market. He is always up-to-date on market dynamics on the price action side. I really enjoy talking to him. He has 'flow' - he will go a long way in this profession.

I got my Demat Account.

Mail just came in.

Really happy to be making a fresh start tomorrow.

May good have kindness on this initiative!

Life will go on as routine activities of life.

Om Sai Ram!

Today, I am good to go.

My First Trade :

USDINR (Futures) LONG at 81.20

USDINN 80.75 Put Option BUY as INSURANCE

Expiry 3rd Feb

Also Bought Call Options of 81.50 Strike on USDINR

Expiry 3rd Feb

Upside on USDINR has started.

Budget of the Central Government is on 1st Feb. Market is expected to react significantly in either direction.

Derivatives of 3rd Feb expiry are available.

Traders have not yet started to bet on this event. Derivatives (primarily options) are available at a fair price.

It is a good time to take a bet on USDINR.

Happy Trading!

Will buy GBPINR 5 mins before market close (5 PM IST) and keep it for overnight.

Upcoming Trade - GBPUSD - Coming in the Buy Zone

GBPUSD is nearing my entry point. I expect a good upside from my level.

I drew exactly this price action in my mind on the weekend.

I am fairly confident about this trade.

**It may go 25-30 pips lower than the stated entry point. So, please watch the price action before taking the decision to go ahead with this.

Bought GBPINR at 100.6725

Will be holding it for overnight.

Exited GBPINR with a loss. Was NOT willing to hold it for overnight further - as tomorrow is a holiday in India (Republic Day).

I am going through a hard time in Commodities.

On the morning of 6th Feb, 2023 I quit smoking.

I can smoke again on 6th June, 2024.

Planning to hedge my position in Crude Oil (on MCX) with next month's contract.

I am short on Crude Oil (WTI Crude) I will buy equal contracts of next month's expiry - for one last spike upwards which is pending.

I think I am Lord Shiva's reincarnation (repetition of the pattern).

Losing myself FREE.

Free from worry.
Free from fear.
Free from an adverse future.
Free from the cycle of good and bad days.

Everything is pre-destined.

Whatever happened, happened for GOOD.
Whatever is happening, is happening for GOOD.
Whatever will happen, will happen for GOOD.

Human Race has an ever increasing chart. Just like the equity indexes. Any correction should be welcomed and celebrated. It was for GOOD. Over bought human race faced a correction for greater GOOD - to restore the EQUILIBRIUM.