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Journal of a Maturing Trader

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 6, 2023 12:05am Jan 6, 2023 12:05am
This is the journal of Anirudh Singh.

Past: I have a decade of experience cutting across a number of industries and profiles.
For the last 5 years, I have been associated with the trading profession. This journey has been marked by many ups and downs. Developing as a trader has been a major struggle for me. But now I have started to enjoy this process.

Present: Recently, I have entered the league of institutional traders at Investech Solutions in India.

Future: I am creating this blog to keep a record of my journey as an institutional trader.
Two things that are going to determine my future success are : Addiction (control over it) and discipline (rules are to be followed without emotions). Over the last few days and in this era of corona crisis - I have become very serious about all aspects of my life (Health, Wealth and Happiness).

In the coming era, I want to practice 'flow' over motivation.

Let's see what the future holds!

NOTE TO ALL: If you cannot be supportive, then do not be toxic. Any fair and unbiased criticism is welcome. I can face the brutal truth as long as said with a clean intent.
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #2
  • Jan 6, 2023 12:16am Jan 6, 2023 12:16am
Joined this company on 2nd of January (2023). Waiting for my trading credentials to arrive.

Just tracking the market for the time being.

Will specialize in just four pairs for the next few years - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDINR.

As derivatives (Futures and Options) on these instruments are available on the Indian Regulated Exchanges. So, will trade F&O on these pairs from 9 AM to 5 PM Indian Time. Forex Brokers are illegal in India (hence, can't trade with them) - NO access to the 24 Hour market.

**EURINR, GBPINR and JPYINR are also available. But these pairs are not of much interest from the point of view of proper forex trading.

Just out-pouring my thoughts!
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #3
  • Jan 6, 2023 2:53am Jan 6, 2023 2:53am
Hello Mr. Singh.

Could you please describe your strategy in simple words, so we all have a better understanding of what you are doing.
It would be better if you link your account to Trade explorer or some other tracking service. This will be much more informative and transparent.
Will you post your results at the end of each day?
  • #4
  • Jan 6, 2023 3:36am Jan 6, 2023 3:36am
Quoting BlaBlaFx
Hello Mr. Singh. Could you please describe your strategy in simple words, so we all have a better understanding of what you are doing. It would be better if you link your account to Trade explorer or some other tracking service. This will be much more informative and transparent. Will you post your results at the end of each day?
My account is under process at the broker. Today morning (Indian Time) - I followed up with the HR on this. HR is saying that I should get it soon.

Further, my examination for License for terminal operations is on 16th of this month at Delhi NISM Center at Jhendewala. Prior to license, I will operate the terminal on someone else's license.

For linking the account to Trade Explorer - I will need approval from the company. I am very sure that they will NOT allow this.

My Strategy: I follow price action trading strategy supplemented by Support & Resistance and Fib Retracement Levels. But the additional advantage I get as an institutional traders is that there is a peer group to discuss and get a better insight. The trader 2 desk behind me - Saurabh Pratap - is a super trader. I have barely interacted with him for four days - but what I am learning from him is amazing. Gaining confidence is everything.

There is no difference between a retail trader and an institutional trader - except for having a support system. Institutional traders have each other's back.
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #5
  • Jan 6, 2023 3:42am Jan 6, 2023 3:42am
Quoting BlaBlaFx
Hello Mr. Singh. Could you please describe your strategy in simple words, so we all have a better understanding of what you are doing. It would be better if you link your account to Trade explorer or some other tracking service. This will be much more informative and transparent. Will you post your results at the end of each day?
The company has given me a target of 2% return per month.

I have set a personal target to achieve 4% return per month.

I will post my result at the end of each week and each month.
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #6
  • Jan 6, 2023 6:48am Jan 6, 2023 6:48am
Thanks for creating a journal. It seems we both use S/R levels and Fibs as part of our strategy. Will subscribed to the thread. Good luck Mr.ASingh
  • #7
  • Jan 7, 2023 8:41am Jan 7, 2023 8:41am
Will get my LIVE account on Monday.

Watching videos on awakening the desire (Hindi: Iccha shakti kaise jagayein). Over the years, I have become complacent and lost my young-age driving force.

When I was in college - this is exactly what I wanted to do. I have been a gambler since childhood - with the late adolescence inclined towards becoming a software engineer.

I have a natural ability to see patterns which no one else can see in this world - this is not a learned skill. This is a natural ability since childhood.

The way out, is IN. Give in to your inner world. Once the aura of confusion and shame subsides - the inner self will awaken.

I am doing exactly what I wanted to do. We always get what we truly aspire for - "Your deepest desires and deepest fears, both will materialize in life."

Just pouring out my feelings!
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #8
  • Jan 7, 2023 9:27am Jan 7, 2023 9:27am
How long have you been trading?
What was your trading results for the last 6 months? % gain, win rate, number of trades?
  • #9
  • Jan 8, 2023 5:21am Jan 8, 2023 5:21am
Quoting BlaBlaFx
How long have you been trading? What was your trading results for the last 6 months? % gain, win rate, number of trades?
I have been trading for close to 5 years. First 4 years were of turbulence and limited success - but I managed to hang along. I was lucky to get so many chances.

Last 1 years has been of some profits - USD 12000/-. I was trading with Online Prop. Firms during this period. NOW, I am trading on the regulated exchanges (NOT the interbank market or forex brokers or Online Prop. Firms - but derivatives on Forex Pairs (Futures and Options)). On Monday I will get my LIVE Demat/trading account.

On 16th of this month, I have my exam for Series VIII License (required by Indian Regulator (SEBI) to operate the trading terminal by Institutional Traders). I will start with Forex and then move to Metals and Energy (and (maybe) Indian Indexes)). My trading company has given me a lot of freedom to decide the instruments that I want to trade. The Directors are very open and NOT into Micro-Managing. All Traders love FREEDOM.

Hope this is sufficient to answer the current and future queries!

Looking to associate with other FULL TIME traders on this forum.

Happy Trading!
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #10
  • Jan 9, 2023 12:31pm Jan 9, 2023 12:31pm
Macro-Economic Trends – An Update

Last Friday saw the release of Euro Zone CPI and US NFP (Employment Numbers) data. These numbers are being considered as a significant event in the CBs (Central Banks) rate hike spree. This update is to evaluate the impact of this on the macro-economic theory that the Inflation driven CBs action are nearing a pivot (high/reversal point).
--

Euro Zone CPI:

Euro Zone CPI saw a higher-than-expected fall.
This was due to fall in crude and natural gas prices.
This sent the Euro significantly higher.
Re-opening of China is also expected to boost the EU economy – EU exports will find a bigger market. Chinese imports will also bring down the prices in EU.
Still, ECB is expected to raise Interest Rates by 50 bps in the February and March.
However, once there is sufficient visibility that ECB is considering an end to the rate hike spree – the market may pre-empt this, sending the Euro significantly higher. This is expected to reverse the down trend of Euro. Euro might have already bottomed out.
**Reduction in interest rates is normally a negative for the local currency. However, in this case, the Euro is expected to rise due to the local economic condition getting better, despite the rates coming down.
--

US NFP Number:

NFP number came better than expected.
However, wage growth and Services PMI was lower than expectations.
This sent the USD lower. It is expected that this data might force the Fed to rethink its aggressive rate hike policy.
Market is just waiting for a fundamental indication from Fed that it is ready to re-evaluate its strategy.
Technically, Dollar Index (DXY) is already reversing its course. It has to be seen whether this continues or the trend reverses upwards.
Conspiracy Theory on Upside for DXY: There is a conspiracy theory that Fed’s inside view is that the interest rates in the US are already too low. If there is some extreme fundamental event then Fed will have to boost the economy by cutting the interest rates. For this to happen, the interest rates should be at a higher level to allow sufficient scope to initiate Fed action.
--

Summary:

With the Dollar Index currently on a downtrend it is expected that the global mood will be RISK-ON (equity markets will go up). However, any statement by Fed Chairman will be closely watched to get further clues on the macro-economic fundamentals. Next month or two are going to be exciting to see update on Fed’s actions. An extreme swing on either side is expected on DXY. The conspiracy theory of Fed increasing the interest rates despite lowering of inflation or the economic condition getting worse – will also be tested.

**I am biased in favor of conspiracy theory. Fed might NOT stop despite the inflation coming under control.

****

Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #11
  • Edited 11:54pm Jan 11, 2023 11:09pm | Edited 11:54pm
Today's CPI data - Impact on DXY

This article is for people who form their bias on key data and events based on incomplete patterns on the chart. DXY has an incomplete downward leg left for the current trend/pattern to end.

The bottom point for DXY is expected to be in the range of 101.587-101.227.

Even if CPI is high and DXY shoots up - then also it is going to come down to complete the pattern.

The attached screenshot shows the broader picture.

Feel free to revert with your views - if you have something reasonable to say.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 42 KB


**Current Thesis in the Markets: Inflation has reached its peak. There will be a maximum of one or two rate hikes from here and then a RATE CUT towards the end of this year.
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #12
  • Edited Jan 13, 2023 2:06am Jan 12, 2023 10:56pm | Edited Jan 13, 2023 2:06am
Chaos Mongering CAN MAKE YOU MONEY!

I have made my own assessment of the current geo-political situation in the world. I expect it to be moving towards an N-War situation. CAPITALISM WILL FALL this year. This post is an anecdote cum prediction for the chaos coming in the next few months.

Anecdote:
I was actively commenting on the LinkedIn posts of a Big Shot Treasury Professional. He agreed with my views on the N-War in 2023. However, he considered me as a chaos monger and commented that this does NOT MAKE YOU MONEY. This propelled me to drill down further into my view and come up with numbers/dates and a strategy.

Prediction with dates (2023):
March ~23 : The Build-Up : Around this date we will see new narrative emerging in the global space.
May ~21 : Judgment Day : On this day we will see the world facing Nuclear War situation. Capitalistic forces will be destroyed. CAPITALISM will FALL. The entire world will start to move towards Communism and Socialism. Quality of Life (which Communism can ensure) will become the central theme in this world.
June 1 : New World Order : A new global order will be established in this world (similar to Bretton Woods Conference after WW2). Fallen Angel will RISE.

Strategy:
Shorting USDINR with extreme Out of the Money Put Options.
I am full time into the market. I will get to see when the market starts to discount the panic.
A 500K INR investment can easily yield 50M INR (~0.625 Million USD).
50M INR is sufficient to ensure my financial security in India.
I need the money.

Chaos Mongering (Keeping your Eyes and Ears OPEN) can Make You MONEY!
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #13
  • Jan 15, 2023 10:38am Jan 15, 2023 10:38am
Quoting Mr.ASingh
Chaos Mongering CAN MAKE YOU MONEY! I have made my own assessment of the current geo-political situation in the world. I expect it to be moving towards an N-War situation. CAPITALISM WILL FALL this year. This post is an anecdote cum prediction for the chaos coming in the next few months. Anecdote: I was actively commenting on the LinkedIn posts of a Big Shot Treasury Professional. He agreed with my views on the N-War in 2023. However, he considered me as a chaos monger and commented that this does NOT MAKE YOU MONEY. This propelled me to drill down...
**Correction - NOT 21st May, instead 17th May

The typo is regretted.

Edit button disabled - so cannot edit the original post.
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #14
  • Jan 16, 2023 11:52pm Jan 16, 2023 11:52pm
Yesterday, cleared my Series VIII Exam with 85% marks. Now, I have the license to place trades on my own on the terminal.
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #15
  • Jan 16, 2023 11:53pm Jan 16, 2023 11:53pm
Still, waiting for my Demat/Trading Account.
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #16
  • Jan 19, 2023 1:12am Jan 19, 2023 1:12am
Quoting Mr.ASingh
Today's CPI data - Impact on DXY This article is for people who form their bias on key data and events based on incomplete patterns on the chart. DXY has an incomplete downward leg left for the current trend/pattern to end. The bottom point for DXY is expected to be in the range of 101.587-101.227. Even if CPI is high and DXY shoots up - then also it is going to come down to complete the pattern. The attached screenshot shows the broader picture. Feel free to revert with your views - if you have something reasonable to say. {image} **Current Thesis...
DXY came close to this zone. It might come down again to test this again at the exact mentioned point.

Future View: Over the next two weeks, I expect substantial upside for DXY. I am confident that it will NOT continue the downtrend below the mentioned zone.
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #17
  • Jan 19, 2023 1:55am Jan 19, 2023 1:55am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY_2023-01-19_13-24-49_af2f2.png Size: 31 KB


Went long in CADJPY for a 50 pips trade.
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #18
  • Jan 19, 2023 2:23am Jan 19, 2023 2:23am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD_2023-01-19_13-51-50_ad104.png Size: 30 KB


EURCAD is a good short at 1.4663.

This has potential to capture close to 90 pips on the downside.
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #19
  • Jan 19, 2023 4:47am Jan 19, 2023 4:47am
Quoting Mr.ASingh
{image} EURCAD is a good short at 1.4663. This has potential to capture close to 90 pips on the downside.
Shorted EURCAD at 1.4623

I expect a minimum of 68 pips from this trade.
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
  • #20
  • Jan 19, 2023 5:05am Jan 19, 2023 5:05am
Quoting Mr.ASingh
{quote} Shorted EURCAD at 1.4623 I expect a minimum of 68 pips from this trade.
Exited EURCAD flat.

Waiting for 63 level to short again.
Anirudh Singh | Institutional Trader | IIM Calcutta
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