Pips, charts and trades

EUR/USD continues to move within the uptrend, this time forming a new correction. The currency pair is confidently but so far unsuccessfully trying to break through the key level 1.08650, which at this stage is a marker for possible further growth and trend expansion. At the same time, the EMA 100 line on the weekly chart is currently at 1.08530. The crossing of this line this week cannot yet be marked as a clear buy signal, since at this stage it is a false breakout. But in this way, I can conclude that this resistance area is putting quite a lot of pressure on the price formation.
Of course, if the weekly EMA 100 is confidently broken and at the same time 1.08650, the continued growth to the historical 1.09400 and then to the weekly EMA 200 line is highly possible.
Despite the fact that the influence of the resistance is strong enough to prevent further growth for the third time since Friday, the buy MACD signals on the daily chart are quite clear, as well as on the weekly one.
Given the pressure of the resistance levels, I have to consider a possible fall after the current correction. The key level for a sell signal is the EMA 100 line on the hourly chart, which is now at 1.08050. The marker level is a support at 1.07900 hat is also forms the boundaries of the correction channel. In case of crossing the EMA 200 line on the hourly chart, which is at the level of 1.07600, I would predict the continuation of the fall until the area of 1.07160 and EMA 100 on the four-hour chart. The MACD signal on the four-hour chart shows a steady decline.
Thus, I assume that a correction and a short-term fall is possible now, after recent impulses, but after reaching more confident support levels, growth may resume again according to the current uptrend. Regardless of the forecast, I will wait for the clearest signals and reaching the markers in order to start trading.

Euro Dollar has a quite interesting situation this week. The long-awaited decline towards the 1.07000 support has taken place, and now the price is even lower, at 1.06760. The EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart provided proper support, as I expected, but nevertheless it was broken and is now above the price level, which certainly indicates a possible continuation of the decline. But it is also important to note that falling to the levels of EMA 100 and EMA 200 on the daily chart will be possible only in case of a confident breakout of the current key level. I will set the marker level 1.06500, and its breakout will signal a further fall to 1.05810 and below 1.05200 (daily EMA levels). It's also important to note that on the four-hour and hourly charts, the EMA levels are located above the current price, which may mean some pressure on the price as resistance.
MACD divergence is developing on the 4-hour chart, it gives a reason to consider a short-term increase for a possible test of resistance now or in case of a decline, I expect a corrective movement this week. On the daily chart, the MACD also indicates a divergence, but it signals a further decline.
I also updated the trend channel lines and now it is clear that the price is in the trend support area, and further decline will be a breakout of the uptrend channel.

LUX trading results
February 15, the day before the trading period restart.
I closed the EUR/JPY trade with a profit of 3%, and now the LUX profitability reached 5.41% in February, that is an optimal indicator for the successful trading plan fulfillment.

Euro/Dollar fell again to the key support area, 1.05300, where the daily EMA 200 (1.05370) and EMA 100 (1.05540) lines are located.
The key level 1.05300 passing will be considered as a signal for further decline and the possible formation of a head and shoulders pattern.
The current short-term growth does not yet cancel the option of falling below 1.05300 and I believe that this movement is within the correction. EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines on the hourly chart (1.05900 and 1.06050) and the four-hour chart (1.06400 and 1.06650) will influence the possible growth, so I suppose EUR/USD will not be able to start an impulse now that could push the price out of the correction channel, above 1.06900. However, I am monitoring the situation and I am ready to use the opportunities to open trades that the market will provide.

The market has been volatile this week and my trading plan has been adjusted. Despite my forecast for the EUR/USD has not yet come true, although I expected a fall after breaking through the 1.05300 key level, this week's profitability is 2.83%, and the March monthly now is 5.5%

An interesting fact, which is actually the result of the correct trading system adjustment during a change in market behaviour.
3 out of 7 trades in March are among the fastest (8, 9, 11 minutes) and all of them are profitable trades.
The result does not require any more comments. Just see how those 28 minutes have affected your investment balance

This week the LUX trading will start later as the situation with the EUR/USD has changed and I had to reject the head and shoulders option and rebuild the trading plan. For now, I see that the 1.05300 level, where the EMA100 and EMA 200 lines were placed on the daily chart, has provided strong enough support to withstand the pressure and prevent the downtrend from breaking.
Euro Dollar gained more than 400 points in a week, which gave many traders confidence in the continuation of growth.
I want to draw attention to the fact that EMA 100 crosses 1.08300 on the weekly chart, which leaves the possibility of further growth open and points to the nearest resistance level at 1.10275 and 1.11000 EMA 200 on the weekly chart. Despite the high probability of continued growth, I also want to consider the option of a correction and a decrease to the level of 1.07200, but I must admit that a number of support levels (1.08300, 1.07750 (hourly EMA 100) will prevent a deep correction.
It is also important to note that upon reaching 1.10275, there will be an option for a double top formation and further fall within this pattern.
Based on the current data, I would look very closely at the growth option, but in case of a decline below 1.08300, as a marker level, I will consider trading on a correction.

LUX trading results
I believe that the March result has become an indicator of the trading system stability. In accordance with the trading plan, the account reached profitability level more than 10% monthly (account participants have a profit of 10.59% this month)
On the video posted on instagram, you can see the period of activity and closing of the EUR/USD trade. Despite the take profit was set above the support level, I closed the trade prematurely, having received a signal of a probably further growth. I must admit that I made a mistake and the price did not reach the take profit level.
The GBP/USD trade reached the take profit level an hour earlier and was closed with a profit.

The first April week started with a steady growth and the continuation of the uptrend, while the resistance level of 1.09100 was passed with a new top for the local trend at 1.09730. But after the Wednesday, the price returned and consolidated in the area 1.09100 – 1.09200. This correction provides some space for further possible prospects next week.
The priority for me remains the rise to the level of 1.10300 and further interaction with this key resistance level. This will be possible only if the uptrend on the 4-hour chart continues and the price exits the 1.09200 area and rises above the key marker level 1.09730.
In order to consider the option of falling after the current correction, I propose to clarify key levels that will provide support. First of all, it should be noted that a decline below the level of 1.08750 will be the primary sign of a break in the uptrend. Moreover, EMA 200 on the hourly chart is currently located at 1.08820, which will also provide support. The initial level, which could become a decline target, will be the EMA 100 area on the four-hour chart (the line is now at 1.08330) and also the key support level 1.07850 (close to EMA 200).
There is a slight MACD divergence in the 4 hours chart, but the EMA and RSI do not confirm this possible reversal signal.
Thus, at the moment I noted quite favorable conditions formed for further growth, while the fall will involve the influence of several support levels.

My previous analysis of the EUR/USD pair had some upside bias and a likely double top formation from 1.10300. But this week the market, having some volatility, tested the EMA 100 level on the four-hour chart (1.08330) that I also mentioned and returned to the level of 1.09100. Thus, the current uptrend has not been broken, and the growth option is still among the possible ones in the near future. The 1.09730 top level is a resistance, and it will have an impact on the price in case of growth. I will consider the level 1.09300 as a marker level for further growth to the nearest resistance 1.09730. At the same time, further growth will mean a probable achievement of 1.10000 and 1.10300. In order to see possible decline options, I would again pay attention to the fact that the EMA lines on the hourly chart are very close below the price line and can probably provide support, but if they are broken, I would consider a second possibility of falling to 1.08330. This is a marker level, which will show the prospect of further fall, or continuation of fluctuations within the horizontal channel 1.09300 - 1.08330.
Looking more closely at the hourly chart, I see that the next support is at the EMA 100 line at 1.08970 and the following at EMA 200 1.08850.
The MACD shows a preliminary buy signal on hourly. On the four-hour MACD chart, the signal line crossing is quite clear and shows a predisposition to growth.

Euro Dollar reached the level of 1.10300 and even the next high at 1.10750, which will be a key resistance level for further growth and continuation of the uptrend. Now, the market is fluctuating inside the uptrend channel on the four-hour chart.
On the hourly chart, the price has already crossed the EMA 100 during a local correction, but is still above the EMA 200. This position provides me with the 2 marker levels at EMA lines on the hourly chart (1.10000 and 1.09500) for further movement. The MACD on the hourly chart shows a weak buy signal as well as a slight divergence that is better visible on the 30 minutes chart.
On the 4 hour MACD chart, there is a strong sell signal and the RSI is fluctuating around the 50 area, indicating that the market is temporarily uncertain. The divergence that was forming earlier was partially broken by the recent growth, but I will continue to take it into account, because it can be broken or continued with further market movement.
The chart shows an uptrend that is currently active and can be continued. But if the formation of the double top continues and the sell signals are confirmed, then this trend will be broken. Also a very important aspect is the presence of several support levels: 1.09200, 1.09000 (now EMA 100 on a four-hour chart) and 1.08330 (now EMA 200 on a four-hour chart).
Preliminarily, I estimate this situation as prone to short-term growth with a possible test of 1.10300 and even 1.10750. But after that, a fall will form, which may lead to a violation of the current trend. I have set marker and key levels that I will rely on while trading.

Bitcoin looks quite confident now about its further growth. I would clarify that the small momentum from 27k to above 30k opened new medium-term prospects for Bitcoin. The level of 25000 was the initial signal, because the EMA 200 line on the weekly chart was crossed exactly at this price. Now, the 30000 level has been passed and the EMA 100 line has been crossed on the weekly chart. At the same time, I see a transition to positive MACD values, which may be the beginning of a more intensive growth to the level of 35k, which is a key historical level. As for the rise to the 48-50k level, I believe that this level should be considered with some caution, as it will provide strong resistance and possibly become a key level for a temporary or even deep correction back to values around 30k.
There is a slight divergence on the 4-hour chart, and a preliminary sell signal, so I assume that there will be a short-term correction before a possible upside impulse. This can also be noted from the RSI position, near 70 on the daily and weekly charts.
As for my opinion on the long-term future of bitcoin, I will clarify that I see it in a sufficiently promising position.

I would like to make a few posts with a short analysis of two trades that were the most interesting of the recent ones.

Overview data:
5 trades for the period from April 19 to April 24.
4 trades out of 5 are profitable and closed at the take profit.
1 losing trade was closed by stop loss.
Fully completed trading plan for the week and for the month: April profitability is 9.67%.

The GBP/JPY trade is undistinguished according to the open and close. A fairly clear MACD signal and a decline below the key level of 167.00 was confirmed by an additional crossing of the EMA lines, in addition, a clear formation of a correction on the uptrend was an important decision-making factor. This trade is important because it shows the moment of endurance and patience. On the chart, I marked 3 moments during which the price went into the loss zone, but nevertheless, trading according to my strategy and plan, I decided to wait further and, as a result, made a profit with a take profit. Of course, after the MACD 200 line was passed on short timeframes, and the EMA 100 line was crossed on the hourly chart, I was already sure that the temporary market return and a small drawdown would be insignificant. The MACD signal was quite clear, with a passing to the zone of negative values on the hourly chart, and this confirmed my confidence. The take profit level was set above the key level of 166.500 influence area.

The USD/JPY trade is interesting as an example of analyzing possible movement scenarios and strictly following the established plan and trading system. The trade was opened according to the uptrend, after unsuccessful attempts to break through the channel support area, as well as EMA 200 on the hourly chart. At the same time, I saw that the levels of 134.00 and 133.900 will provide support.
However, after the opening, the market immediately went down, trying to create a false breakout of the EMA 200. I was ready to take a loss if I received information about a possible deep fall and trend break, but instead, the MACD showed divergence on short-term timeframes , and on the hourly chart, the MACD signal line was not crossed confidently, thus allowing my to wait.
Despite the tense period after the open, my patience was rewarded as the market impulsively continued to move with the trend and returned to the area above the EMA lines on the hourly chart. The market confirmed quite strong growth markers, so the following decline was not so important, I saw that the market would return to 134.400 – 134.500 and therefore I set the take profit below the top level to be sure that the trade would be closed with a profit.

The beginning of the new month remains without trading activity on LUX PAMM due to extreme caution associated with the current activity on the market. However, now I see a fairly clear picture on the Euro Dollar, which will quite possibly soon be turned into trading activity.
Euro Dollar during April tried to overcome some resistance zone around 1.10700 and it started to work out after a sharp jump was made with the top of 1.10965. At the moment, a very weak uptrend has been formed, close to horizontal, and its extension in the current situation is unlikely.
A divergence has formed on the MACD four-hour chart, which is also clearly visible on the daily chart, along with a fairly confident crossing of the signal line.
The recent drop proved that the 100 EMA level on the 4-hour chart would not provide significant support in the event of a decline. But I would pay attention to the EMA 200 level, the line is at 1.09300 now. I will consider the support at 1.09430 as a marker level and a preliminary signal for further decline, and further breaking of the signal level at 1.09300 will probably mean a continuation of the fall to 1.08300.
The confident growth will be possible if the EMA levels of 100 and 200 are confidently crossed again, and then there will be a prospect of a second attempt to reach and overcome the level of 1.10950 formed in May

LUX trading results
EUR/USD trade opens trading plan this month. The trade was closed without reaching the take profit level thus, a series of 4 take profits on my account was interrupted, but I will improve the system so that such series are longer and more frequent.
However, it's a profitable trade that generated a 2.48% gain
The trade was immediately closed after there was a possibility of further growth and the beginning of a correction that could reduce profits. I have been careful , although the market finally reached the required level after a few hours. As I have mentioned, patience is the most important thing in trading and this trade is a great example of the importance.

GBP/JPY is once again reaching the resistance of 172.800 and in my opinion does not have strong priorities for further growth for a while. The current area of resistance puts strong pressure on the market and during May this level was not passed. I will consider this level as a marker and further growth can be considered only after it is broken. However, in the long term (weekly and monthly) MACD and EMA point to buy.
On the short term charts, I see a MACD divergence that formed during a horizontal move along resistance, with a slight bullish incline.
In order to consider further downside, I would take a close look at the hourly chart which indicates MACD sell but the EMAs are still below the price level which provides some support and a fall could be considered if the EMA 100 marker level is passed on the hourly chart (now at 172.015) and further breaking through the EMA 200 line with the prospect of falling to 171.250 (still within the current horizontal trend).
Summing up, I would clarify that the short term hints at a fall following the divergence and the impact of the 172.800 resistance, but the long term, where the monthly chart shows a preliminary MACD buy signal, can still return to a continuous increase, which can be strong enough to reach 175.00.

EUR/USD once again reached 1.10350, which is a key resistance and may be a key level for the formation of a Head and Shoulders pattern. In case of considering the weekly chart as a basis for medium-term analysis, the price reaches the EMA of 200 and does not dare to break through, preparing for a next fall. Support in this case will be the level of 1.09000 and EMA 100 on the weekly chart, which is now at the level of 1.08400.
It is very clear and interesting that the MACD on the weekly chart shows the possibility of falling, as the signal line is crossed and attempts to return above were stopped by the EMA 200 level. This fact makes 1.10700 a very important key level, which will be the primary and basic signal for further growth, in case of breaking higher.
On the four-hour chart, MACD confirms the possibility of further decline, as it forms a divergence, as well as a possible beginning of the line crossing, which is the primary sell signal.

I will consider the probability of falling as high, especially if 1.0900 is broken and the move continues. However, in order to limit possible risks, I advise you to look at the possibility of a temporary horizontal correction with a subsequent break above 1.10700 and 1.11000

Today I opened the EUR/USD trade that was closed with gain of 3.26%, after which the monthly account growth reached 10.72%. There is another week ahead and I am sure that it will also be productive.
Today's trade was entered after a decline below 1.09000, according to the analysis I posted a little earlier, and was closed at the take profit level. I set take profit at 1.08451, according to the analysis, above the key support 1.08400, which has not yet been passed, and the price started a short-term correction. Thus, the daily EMA 100 has not been passed and the probability of the horizontal channel formation has increased.

Euro US Dollar is trying to break below 1.08400 for the third time, which gives reason to consider this level as a key support and the main marker level to determine further fall to EMA 100 and EMA 200 on the daily chart, which are now at 1.08100 and 1.07250. At the same time, the price did cross the EMA lines on the hourly and four-hour charts, and this is the initial sell signal. The MACD on the 4 hour chart provided a very slight divergence which I would not consider a significant buy argument. It is likely that a long-term uptrend is forming on the daily chart at the moment and a further fall as a correction within the channel is a very likely option.
In the short term, I see the hourly MACD giving a buy signal, which could be the start of a rise towards the 200 EMA and 100 EMA on the hourly chart, which are in the 1.08900 and 1.09000 resistance area. In the near future, testing of these levels is possible, but I find further growth unlikely. However, I will keep an eye on the marker level 1.09000, because its break could lead the market to a bullish option, at least with the prospect of 1.09400 and 1.09750