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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #4,021
  • Edited 11:34pm May 3, 2007 9:39pm | Edited 11:34pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Turk!

I don't usually trade eur/usd (it annoys me )....but, I do watch it...I think that it has been giving marginal signals because the trend is tired & price action has been marginal (but many trader's have done well with capturing pips...look back at Palmer's posts especially).

I did really super last month w/MACD (over 700 pips for the month). But, I have to admit, that I "cheat" and confirm TC, RB & RT 1 hour...It is very rare when I enter a RB/RT signal from 4 hour unless it coincides w/S&R. Truly, the "magic" of this system comes from studying price action. I've had four trades this week that were based on TL & price relation to MA's per system rules....2 G/U trades that netted 80 pips and 100 pips per lot...and 2 swissie trades that netted 60 pips and 50 pips per lot (I am on "vacation" so I used entry orders based on chart patterns and interplay of price w/MA's)....so, I'm up almost 300 pips this week because of this system.

Pips
B4 YOU READ THIS<THE TITLE SHOULD BE 75,6% ...
Great going pips!!
Could you perhaps give us all a breakdown of your successes?
I started trading this system on the 16 April. To date I'm up 309 pips!!
The most successful pairs for me have been Cable and USDCHF.
biggest winning trade90pips
biggest losing trade53pipstrades38
consecutive losses3winners28
consecutive winners10losers9 (one losing trade was only 1 pip!)
win%75.60%
What you call "cheating" has saved me from potentially disastrous trades! The 1hr confirmations are excellent to have in your arsenal.The MACD entry signals are probably the most reliable in forex!! WELL DONE PHILIP!! Missed a lot of signals because of day job!
But you're right, Philip's strategy has really taught me to not just be mechanical, but also to constantly consider price action. From a personal trading point of view, I know I exit the winning trades too early. How can I remedy that?
Anyway, won't trade today, NFP data looming. As Philip himself said ,NFP and interest rate days = stay out!PLUS...Monday is a holiday in London. Japan and China holidays as well (, so expect severe whipsaw action 2day.
  • #4,022
  • May 3, 2007 9:59pm May 3, 2007 9:59pm
Quoting ttitto
I do not think it. I tell you what I saw on my real account. the price jumped in a single move 2 pips above my SL level, took it and then reversed to the previous price. Have never seen my money again and took the rest from that broker. But it is off topic here and it is something that happens often with mt4 brokers. It was on the 29th may 2006 and doesn't deserve more talk about!
I'm not saying that brokers don't do this kind of thing--but you can always cross check your chart with other brokers to see if the price spike was there as well. I feel your pain--I was stopped out two days ago from a nice 200 pip gain by 2 pips. But let's get real--they don't know I exist... we are not a blip on their radar.... we are small potatoes.

Anyway, enough about all this--conspiracy or not, we can't do anything about it. Let's succeed in spite of anything like this...
  • #4,023
  • May 3, 2007 10:54pm May 3, 2007 10:54pm
Could someone elaborate a bit more on the 1 hs Chart confirmation?

Thanks
Ignacio
  • #4,024
  • May 3, 2007 11:03pm May 3, 2007 11:03pm
Hi,

I have had a couple of questions regarding how I use 1 hour to enter via MACD 4 hr. This example is how I entered the Swissie Long from yesterday (I discussed in 2 posts yesterday the trades I was waiting for)...

If you look on the 4 hour chart (from post 3987), you can see that I have the .2095 area former resistance area (thick Red Line)...which corresponds w/Long term TL that I believe to be acting as support...also, the 89 was approx. .2086. In my post, I explained the "motion of the market," and how I was waiting for price to retreat back to 89 and would take long w/conf. from MACD. My chart is GMT....and my 4 hour candle was not closed when price hit my target area. Also, the 4 hour was giving a potential 0 line cross (very weak (-.0002). On the 1 hour, price was sitting a little above the 89, and a RB was forming. I anticipated a 0 line rejection forming b/c of price action on 1 hour. I confirmed that price was moving in the direction I wanted w/the 1 hour chart. The trade was entered 1 candle sooner than the 1 hour really confirmed (I entered long w/an entry order at 1.2095 bid). Reason: my risk was small (my stop was 15 pips below the 89 @ .2071) and my target was the most recent IT L @ .2155)....Price was sitting at my strong support area, 1 hour did not confirm a 0 line cross on 4 hour, price was above 89 on 1 hour, and my r:r was better than good. Hope this helps explain how & why I entered the USDCHF long (also, look back a few pages ago at posts explaining more of my reasons for the trade prior to taking it).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF0504071hr.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #4,025
  • May 3, 2007 11:42pm May 3, 2007 11:42pm
Well, this has shot up many pips in the last 8 hours or so, but I think I'm going long still with this. I've attached a chart (hard to read, sorry), and here are my reasons:

1) MACD 4-hr TC
2) Draw a fibonacci expansion with wave one being the trend from 4/17 8:00 to 4/24 20:00, and wave two being from 4/24 20:00 to 4/26 00:00. You'll see that the 1.65 line corresponds right on with the 61.8 expansion line, and that the 100 expansion line is at 1.6609 or so, very close to the nice round number, which is also a previous R line from 3/28 8:00--this is my target. The price has closed above the 61.8 line, so I believe it can make it to the 100 line.

Also, if you do a retracement from the 3/6 00:00 peak all the way down to the 4/17 8:00 low, woweee, the 38.2 line corresponds to the recent highs, and this again has been closed above. Where's the 50% retracement?--again, the 1.66 line. I think it can hit this line. The last hourly bar was down, providing a good entry, and I have gone long at this new low position (1.6533 or so).

I've set a SL at 1.6515, which is well into the long hourly bar going up from earlier. As my faith in this trade is about 60% and not 90%, I am setting a rather tight SL. Just posting this so some of you can analyze it as well, and give me some feedback!

EDIT: Immediately after posting, I go and look at the chart again. I was missing something, and I've closed my position for a measly 5 pip profit. What I failed to recognize was that there is now basis for a new up channel, and after connecting the dots from the recent peaks, we're pretty much at the top of the channel! So I will watch the 1 hour chart closely and see if there is a short opportunity, and then go back and re-evaluate the possibility of a breakout if the price closes above this line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #4,026
  • May 4, 2007 12:24am May 4, 2007 12:24am
Quoting Nacho_1975
Could someone elaborate a bit more on the 1 hs Chart confirmation?

Thanks
Ignacio
Hi Nacho 1975

Check out posts #3833 and #3834. On pg 256 I think it is.
  • #4,027
  • May 4, 2007 12:51am May 4, 2007 12:51am
Quoting JoshDance
Well, this has shot up many pips in the last 8 hours or so, but I think I'm going long still with this. I've attached a chart (hard to read, sorry), and here are my reasons:

...

EDIT: Immediately after posting, I go and look at the chart again. I was missing something, and I've closed my position for a measly 5 pip profit. What I failed to recognize was that there is now basis for a new up channel, and after connecting the dots from the recent peaks, we're pretty much at the top of the channel! So I will watch the 1 hour chart closely and see if there is a short opportunity, and then go back and re-evaluate the possibility of a breakout if the price closes above this line.
Well, kicking myself now :-) Up 30 pips. Bleh.
  • #4,028
  • May 4, 2007 1:25am May 4, 2007 1:25am
Quoting ttitto
I do not think it. I tell you what I saw on my real account. the price jumped in a single move 2 pips above my SL level, took it and then reversed to the previous price. Have never seen my money again and took the rest from that broker. But it is off topic here and it is something that happens often with mt4 brokers. It was on the 29th may 2006 and doesn't deserve more talk about!

I don't see that 90 pips spike on the date you mentioned. The high and low of that day is 2.2800 and 2.2740 what makes a 60 point range. Impossible to lose 90.
  • #4,029
  • May 4, 2007 2:11am May 4, 2007 2:11am
Quoting Phillip Nel
If you want to paricipate in a chat around the 4 Hour MACD Strategy
Go to www.skype.com and install skype and then click the link below to get access to the chat.

You can only benefit from the discussions and if not satisfied you can leave the chat when ever you want or ask the host to remove you.

I hope that the chats will only be positive. Bad stuff wont be allowed on the chat.

Everything on this chat must be treated as opinions of different people and any actions according to something published on this chat must only be done after thorough investigation.

The host which is me will have full rights to stop this chat whenever he feels it is no longer of any use or when the majority feels it nescessary to do so

LINK:

http://ui.skype.com/ui/0/3.1.0.144/e...T7Gp_-AjQF23tQ
This is the original link to the chat room. Not very active though.
  • #4,030
  • May 4, 2007 2:14am May 4, 2007 2:14am
Quoting Nacho_1975
Could someone elaborate a bit more on the 1 hs Chart confirmation?

Thanks
Ignacio
Ignacio, I like to think of it like this: the 4HR MACD indicator lags behind the 1HR, the 1HR lags behind the 15MIN, and so on. Now, if your trading TF is 4HR, we place our orders based on the 4HR. But to get a jump on things, we might use a 1HR. So if a nice RT is forming, we might look to the 1HR to verify that a RT has already formed and is on its way down already. We don't trade on the 1HR, but we use it to back up our 4HR. Although, I have gotten some nice trades doing the 1HR MACD alone.
  • #4,031
  • May 4, 2007 6:21am May 4, 2007 6:21am
[quote=pips4uandme;1432335]Hi,

I have had a couple of questions regarding how I use 1 hour to enter via MACD 4 hr. This example is how I entered the Swissie Long from yesterday (I discussed in 2 posts yesterday the trades I was waiting for)...

Very well explained pips. Analysis like this makes this thread very informative and keeps reminding us of the basics of the system well explained by Phillip. Well done and keep up the gr8 work.
  • #4,032
  • May 4, 2007 10:33am May 4, 2007 10:33am
I would like to thanks Phil for the incredible system. Even if this week was not an easy one, I was able to made 13 trades (12+ and 1- (USDCAD)) for a total profit of 129 pips.

So Phil......Chapeau

Vermouth con papas fritas for everyone
  • #4,033
  • May 4, 2007 11:21am May 4, 2007 11:21am
Quoting Doji Star
B4 YOU READ THIS<THE TITLE SHOULD BE 75,6% ...
Great going pips!!
Could you perhaps give us all a breakdown of your successes?
I started trading this system on the 16 April. To date I'm up 309 pips!!
The most successful pairs for me have been Cable and USDCHF.
biggest winning trade 90pips
biggest losing trade 53pips trades 38
consecutive losses 3 winners 28
consecutive winners 10 losers 9 (one losing trade was only 1 pip!)
win% 75.60%
What you call "cheating" has saved me from potentially disastrous trades! The 1hr confirmations are excellent to have in your arsenal.The MACD entry signals are probably the most reliable in forex!! WELL DONE PHILIP!! Missed a lot of signals because of day job!
But you're right, Philip's strategy has really taught me to not just be mechanical, but also to constantly consider price action. From a personal trading point of view, I know I exit the winning trades too early. How can I remedy that?
Anyway, won't trade today, NFP data looming. As Philip himself said ,NFP and interest rate days = stay out!PLUS...Monday is a holiday in London. Japan and China holidays as well (, so expect severe whipsaw action 2day.
Hi Doji,

I think you are asking for stats and not specific trades, correct?

My stats are pretty consistent....only my gains have been getting larger over the past few months b/c I am getting better at letting the trade run....

Winning ratio: 92.3% (this counts breakeven into winning) (if you remove the BE trades, the percentage is 90).

for every 13 trades: 10 wins, 2 BE, 1 loss

Avg Loss: 45 Pips (most stops are between 38 - 58 pips).
Never have (so far) 2 losses in a row

Over the last 3 months: +1358 pips (this is after I subtract out 135 pips for losses).

As you can see, I am very pleased with this system!! This does not include the pips from this week (no losing trades...and as of today...+315). Also, the stats do not include spreads....they were subtracted out of my count b/c they were not "banked" by me. Pips are avg. b/c I scale out of positions and usually have 2 -3 lots on per deal. This week, my equity grew by almost 40%....(which is what my monthly equity growth was previous to Phil's teachings)....granted this was a good week....and learning to let trades run has been the BEST thing for my account (besides learning to read price action).
  • #4,034
  • May 4, 2007 11:24am May 4, 2007 11:24am
Quoting Nacho_1975
I would like to thanks Phil for the incredible system. Even if this week was not an easy one, I was able to made 13 trades (12+ and 1- (USDCAD)) for a total profit of 129 pips.

So Phil......Chapeau

Vermouth con papas fritas for everyone
Nice job, Nacho!!!!!

I do have one question....why 13 trades?

Have a good weekend,
Pips
  • #4,035
  • May 4, 2007 11:29am May 4, 2007 11:29am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Doji,

I think you are asking for stats and not specific trades, correct?

My stats are pretty consistent....only my gains have been getting larger over the past few months b/c I am getting better at letting the trade run....

Winning ratio: 92.3% (this counts breakeven into winning) (if you remove the BE trades, the percentage is 90).

for every 13 trades: 10 wins, 2 BE, 1 loss

Avg Loss: 45 Pips (most stops are between 38 - 58 pips).
Never have (so far) 2 losses in a row

Over the last 3 months: +1358 pips (this is after I subtract out 135 pips for losses).

As you can see, I am very pleased with this system!! This does not include the pips from this week (no losing trades...and as of today...+315). Also, the stats do not include spreads....they were subtracted out of my count b/c they were not "banked" by me. Pips are avg. b/c I scale out of positions and usually have 2 -3 lots on per deal. This week, my equity grew by almost 40%....(which is what my monthly equity growth was previous to Phil's teachings)....granted this was a good week....and learning to let trades run has been the BEST thing for my account (besides learning to read price action).
The last part is my main problem. CAN YOU PLEASE EXPLAIN HOW TO LEARN TO READ PRICE ACTION
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #4,036
  • May 4, 2007 11:32am May 4, 2007 11:32am
Quoting pips4uandme
Ira:

Hope this helps...
Originally Posted by Phillip Nel http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
It is difficult to answer this one except for NFP and Interest. I stay on the sideline for those 2. Other news it looks like that the MACD support the news beforehand more times than not. I have not really done that study but it could be worth it to see if it is worth believing the movement before the news comes out and the MACD gives a signal. The UsdChf gave signal yesterday so there was plenty of time to manage the trade. The EurUsd MACD supported the news in the candle before the news. I found in my backtesting taking signals as it comes totaly ignoring news it produces good results.

Pips, hi and thank you for posting this and all the other encouragement you gives us and great job with your trades

Phillip, once again your method has proved itself with the MACD signals showing us the direction of the move. I went long on gbp$ at opening 1200gmt candle, set tp at 21ema before leave for work and came home to 30 pip in the bank
Thanks again for all that you does for us
  • #4,037
  • May 4, 2007 11:39am May 4, 2007 11:39am
What you call "cheating" has saved me from potentially disastrous trades! The 1hr confirmations are excellent to have in your arsenal.The MACD entry signals are probably the most reliable in forex!! WELL DONE PHILIP!! Missed a lot of signals because of day job!
2day.[/quote]


Hi Doji,

I am a big fan of Phillip's MACD, but I have found challenging meeting both the trading method and my day job. My work schedule is the typical 9-5 EST. If you live in the same time zone, I would like to know how do you trade and match your job with your trading. I miss a LOT of good trades because of it (my job) and my trading hours are the very slow hours in the Asian session.
  • #4,038
  • May 4, 2007 11:39am May 4, 2007 11:39am
Quoting chandsen
Hi Phil!

In the audio you said you would have taken the cable short in the afternoon. If you entered on the close of this candle, where would you put your stoploss? Due to the news the candle was rather long and the bottom of the trend was not that far away.
Another question. If you were already in a trade at that time because you traded the news. Would you hold this trade when it seems that the 4h-macd system will give a signal soon and take it as a 4h-trade?

Thanks in advance and best regards!
Chandsen
When price breaks through 89SMA it tends to go back to the 21EMA. It did it so and I would have entered at the low of the previous candle making R:R ok. If i were in the 4H trade I will trade the news seperately if my exposure to my account does not exceed 5% otherwise stay out.
  • #4,039
  • May 4, 2007 11:47am May 4, 2007 11:47am
Hi Pips,
I think the answer is part of your previous post. "learning to let trades run has been the BEST thing for my account (besides learning to read price action)."

This is one of the things that I still need to learn... If I am +15/20 pips.. that is good for me, and I close the trade. Even If I am confident that the price will still support my decision.

But I hope, this is something I will learn in the future.

Thanks
Nacho

P.S: Actually 4 of those 13 trade were trades that I scaled. So I took 9 MACD signals

Quoting pips4uandme
Nice job, Nacho!!!!!

I do have one question....why 13 trades?

Have a good weekend,
Pips
  • #4,040
  • May 4, 2007 11:47am May 4, 2007 11:47am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Doji,

I think you are asking for stats and not specific trades, correct?

My stats are pretty consistent....only my gains have been getting larger over the past few months b/c I am getting better at letting the trade run....

Winning ratio: 92.3% (this counts breakeven into winning) (if you remove the BE trades, the percentage is 90).

for every 13 trades: 10 wins, 2 BE, 1 loss

Avg Loss: 45 Pips (most stops are between 38 - 58 pips).
Never have (so far) 2 losses in a row

Over the last 3 months: +1358 pips (this is after I subtract out 135 pips for losses).

As you can see, I am very pleased with this system!! This does not include the pips from this week (no losing trades...and as of today...+315). Also, the stats do not include spreads....they were subtracted out of my count b/c they were not "banked" by me. Pips are avg. b/c I scale out of positions and usually have 2 -3 lots on per deal. This week, my equity grew by almost 40%....(which is what my monthly equity growth was previous to Phil's teachings)....granted this was a good week....and learning to let trades run has been the BEST thing for my account (besides learning to read price action).


PIPS4 is definitely a Pips-Eating-Monster!!!! And she deserves it. She is an example of thoroughness and caution. Every trade is taken only after an extensive analysis. I am trying very hard to learn from her....hopefully I will be able to post similar numbers as success rate!!!
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